This time, the schedulers seem determined to make sure that the yusho contenders meet on the dohyo. So on Day 13, they’ve matched up Sekiwake Tochinoshin (currently 9-2, pending Day 12 results) with M8 Asanoyama (currently 10-1). This means that, quite unusually, Tochinoshin won’t face at least one of the Ozeki (or, less likely, the Yokozuna). Kakuryu (also currently 9-2) will face Takayasu, which is also somewhat out of order and leaves open the possibility that he will fight Tochinoshin on senshuraku, although the traditional final bout with the second-highest-ranked man on the banzuke, Goeido, may still be more likely. We’ll get a good idea when the Day 14 torikumi, which will take into account Day 12 results, is released about 24 hours from now.
After day 11, it’s going to be a crazy run to the finish. For the most part I expect it to be down to Kakuryu and Tochinoshin now, unless one of them gets (more) hurt. I think both Ozeki will make their 8, but it’s clear they are not at 100% this basho, and are just looking to survive. I would urge Takayasu to take special care with Abi today, he could very well surprise you.
Speaking of surprises, for reasons that we can never know, Ichinojo returns to the dohyo today. Already make-koshi, I am going to guess he is looking to soften the drop down the banzuke for July. I doubt his knee is any better, but as we have seen many times, a rikishi will return hoping a few more wins will help, and just cause himself more problems. He is, however, welcome fodder for the rotation through the top ranks.
Natsu Leaderboard
How’s this for novel – Asanoyama sits alone atop the leader board! I am quite sure they will find some opponent that will put dirt on him once or twice, but for a young guy like him, this is quite an event! With both Ozeki losing day 11, they fall off the pace and only Kotoeko remains 2 behind the leader.
Tokushoryu vs Takagenji – With Ichinojo back, the banzuke imbalance has returned, and we will see a visitor from Juryo. Today it’s the runaway yusho leader for Juryo, Takagenji. I am going to assume that Takagenji will make his Makuuchi debut on July, and we will see “Cab Forward” Tokushoryu back in Juryo.
Enho vs Onosho – Enho is still farming for #8, and this is going to be an interesting match for him. Onosho is big, round, and tends to move a lot. He has balance issues these days, so there is that to work with. But should Onosho be able to connect with his pushing attack, 99 kg is not going to take a lot of force to get headed skyward. First time ever match for these two.
Chiyomaru vs Tomokaze – Both men are at 5-6, and I have to think that the advantage is going to go to Tomokaze, mostly due to his better foot placement and balance. Chiyomaru will come out strong, slapping and swatting at Tomokaze. All Tomokaze has to do is stay upright and moving until Chiyomaru runs out of steam.
Shodai vs Tochiozan – Shodai going for kachi-koshi today against the veteran Tochiozan. Shodai showed a lot of endurance, balance and strength against Shohozan on day 11, and I would assume that Tochiozan will focus more on center-mass than Shohozan did.
Ishiura vs Yoshikaze – Yoshikaze is make koshi already, but I doubt he has given up, no matter how rough his sumo looks. Ishiura wants to be more mobile than his opponent, but Yoshikaze is typically excellent at move and strike sumo.
Myogiryu vs Nishikigi – Both rikishi are 4-7, and the loser walks away make-koshi. Myogiryu comes directly from a kinboshi against Yokozuna Kakuryu, maybe he will bring some of that fighting spirit to this match.
Asanoyama vs Tamawashi – Yusho race front runner Asanoyama faces a master of oshi-zumo today, and chances of Asanoyama leaving the dohyo with win 11 are fairly slim. Should Tamawashi prevail, it would mark his kachi-koshi.
Hokutofuji vs Endo – Another “loser gets make-koshi” match between two rikishi with a lot of potential who could not seem to muster their winning form this basho. Endo holds a 4-2 career advantage, and I think that will carry on in day 12 action.
Daieisho vs Mitakeumi – Mitakeumi finds himself 2 wins short of his 8th, with 4 matches left. I am sure he wants back in the Sekiwake slot, but his sumo has seemed a notch lower than some of his better performances in the past year.
Ichinojo vs Aoiyama – Clash of the Titans. All we need now is Russel Crowe to shout “Release the Kraken!”. This much mass in motion on the dohyo, I think the chances are high that one of these rikishi is going to get hurt. Ichinojo holds a 7-3 career advantage.
Meisei vs Tochinoshin – The Ozekiwake needs one more to resume his role at sumo’s second highest rank; can he take #10 from Meisei? It’s a first-time meeting between these two.
Abi vs Takayasu – Takayasu’s sumo is back in chaos mode, and that is good news for Abi. A Takayasu who tries to start a match with a bull-charge and a shoulder blast really works well for Abi-zumo. A win today would make it 8 for Takayasu.
Goeido vs Takarafuji – Goeido holds a 13-5 career advantage over Takarafuji, but where Takarafuji seems incredibly patient, Goeido seems to lose patience about 10 seconds into any match, and tries anything that comes to mind. Goeido will try to close the day on win 8 at the tachiai.
Ryuden vs Kakuryu – I do hope that the loss to Myogiryu re-focused the Yokozuna, and that we see him revert to his winning form. Ryuden’s sumo is certainly ascendant, but I have confidence that Kakuryu will be able to stalemate him for a time, find a mistake, and exploit it for the win.
Of the three co-leaders going into Day 11—Yokozuna Kakuryu, Sekiwake* Tochinoshin, and M8 Asanoyama—only the rank-and-filer managed to record a win, leaving him in sole possession of the lead. Everyone in the 2 or 3 loss group also lost, so M15 Kotoeko (8-3) is the only other remaining rikishi within two wins of the lead.
Tomorrow, the leader’s degree of difficulty goes up considerably when he is matched against M3 Tamawashi (7-4), who won their only prior meeting back in November. Kakuryu faces M5 Ryuden (7-4) in a first-time meeting. Tochinoshin will try to record his all-important 10th win, and stay in the yusho race, in another first-time bout with M7 Meisei (7-4).
The scheduling beyond Day 12 is complicated by Ichinojo’s return from kyujo. Everything was lined up for a round-robin among Kakuryu, Goeido, Takayasu, and Tochinoshin, but as the East Sekiwake, Ichinojo should technically be scheduled against the Yokozuna and Ozeki ahead of Tochinoshin, and there are not enough days left in the tournament to accommodate both. It’ll be interesting to see what the schedulers decide to do. If nothing else, they now have plenty of options for throwing high-rank obstacles in Asanoyama’s path to a yusho.
Will Tochinoshin regain his Ozeki rank?
He missed his first opportunity to clinch the needed double-digit wins, and really shouldn’t miss his second, as the fight card gets a lot tougher from there, especially with the added pressure.
Who will occupy the San’yaku ranks in July?
East Komusubi Aoiyama (5-6) upset Takayasu for his 4th win in a row. He has the chance to even his record tomorrow against returning Ichinojo, and suddenly his odds to stay in San’yaku don’t look so bad. West Komusubi Mitakeumi (6-5) dropped his second straight, and now needs to finish 2-2 or better to break Goeido’s modern-day record of 14 consecutive basho at Sekiwake/Komusubi. Ichinojo (2-6-3) can only reach a maximum of 6 wins, so he is mathematically out of the named ranks, and can only hope to limit the size of his demotion.
We could still see anywhere from one to four open San’yaku slots. Asanoyama and Tamawashi are the current frontrunners for promotion, pending the outcome of their bout tomorrow. Abi and Ryuden are next in line, followed by Daieisho (who got robbed today) and Takarafuji.
Who will be in Makuuchi in July?
Chiyoshoma and Tokushoryu continue to “lead” the demotion race, and both need to win out to reach safety. With a dearth of promotion candidates in Juryo, we may again witness a kind demotion environment, but Ishiura, Kagayaki and Terutsuyoshi each still need two victories to control their fate, while Daishoho, Sadanoumi, and Chiyomaru need one apiece.
Takagenji, who lost for the first time today, remains the class of Juryo and the only one sure to move up to the top division. Top-ranked Toyonoshima (6-5) has now dropped 4 in a row, and his re-promotion is suddenly looking a lot shakier. And our old friend Kotoyuki (J6, 8-4) got first dirt on the leader and is making a late promotion push.
Who will make the jump from upper Makushita to Juryo?
As a result of Day 11 bouts, Ms2w Takanofuji (6-0), Ms3e Ichiyamamoto (4-2), Ms3w Kizakiumi (5-1) and Ms4e Ryuko (5-1) look good for promotion. With as many as 7 slots in Juryo possibly up for grabs, I would not rule out Ms2e Kotokamatani (3-3) or even Ms4w Hoshoryu 3-3.
Day 11 was chock-ablock with our “Ones to Watch” cohorts, and that leaves day 12 with a light schedule. On day 11, we had the yusho candidates facing each other, and the few remaining undefeated in our list all took their first loss. This included Naya losing to Takanofuji, who will face Chiyoarashi for the Makushita yusho. In Sandanme, Amakaze lost to Toyo University entrant Shiraishi, who will go on to contest for the yusho on day 13.
I also am happy to report that Wakaichiro picked up his 4th win and secure his kachi-koshi after a worrying 0-2 start. He battled back from a cold opening to a winning record, with one match left to decide how large his July promotion will be. For reasons I don’t understand, he always fights better in Tokyo.
For those following the return of former Ozeki Terunofuji, he also won decisively on day 11, improving to 5-1. Roga also won, securing his kachi-koshi in a very one-sided match against Aratora.
Day 12 Matches
Wakatakamoto vs Jokoryu – Both men hold a make-koshi (1-4), and for Jokoryu this derails any hope he might have of returning to the salaried ranks any time soon. Experience edge goes to Jokoryu, and I think I would give a health advantage to Wakatakamoto.
Midorifuji vs Chiyootori – The former Komusubi, Chiyootori, is one win away from a winning record, if he can get past Midorifuji. Chiyootori is not ranked high enough to make it back to Juryo this tournament, but he could possibly get to that position by Aki with some skill and some luck.
Akua vs Bushozan – Both men have their 4th win already, and now they are fighting for rank in the Makushita joi-jin for Nagoya. Bushozan is fighting just below his highest ever rank, where Akua seeks to return to Juryo soon.
Musashikuni vs Keitenkai – Musashikuni can still reach kachi-koshi, but he needs to win his 2 remaining matches. His oppoennt, Keitenkai, was injured on day 2 of Aki 2012, and spent the next year struggling to recover and re-ascend the banzuke.
Shoji vs Hikarugenji – Winner of this match is kachi-koshi. Their one prior match was taken by Osaka native Hikarugenji.
Kitanowaka vs Ryuga – This match is actually to determine where to rank both of these 4-1 rikishi for the Nagoya banzuke. I would expect both of them to make the cut for Jonidan, but where is the quesiton.
