I know this is late, but I wanted to post my official guess for the record before the banzuke is released tomorrow. Please see this post for some of the reasoning.
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Better just b4 the actual one comes out than late.
I over-promoted the 10-5’s and 9-6’s more than you did, under-demoted the 6-9’s and 5-10’s less than you did, with the exception of the very top and bottom of the Maegashira ranks. The 7-8’s got a half rank drop, except Fujiryoga. Shodai got less from me than you gave him.
I ended up matching 18 spots and swapping 7 (Kirishima, Takayasu, WTK, Hiradoumi, Daieisho, Roga and Ryuden) with your list.
The middle ranks are a real mess to figure out based on honest placements by their records.
It’ll be interesting to see how we did.
So, how did U do now? (I was one rank lower than last basho, which was very disappointing because I checked my guess from the top to the bottom and after M5 I was at 100% and began to hope for much more than 138., but alas…)
My guess was totally out of whack. Other than the Sanyaku and M1to M3 and M10-M12 (partially) My guess was way off. Only 16 bulls and 4 hits.
I am not surprised that I did as badly as I did. Overpromoting and under-demotiing did me in. Finished in the 300’s place-wise.
Better luck next time, I guess.
28 bullseyes and 5 hits for me, not great but I’ll take it. I’ll try to write a brief postmortem.
Takayasu vs Wakatakakage is intriguing. I see no reason why the sekiwake should stay in front of the maegashira, but it turns out exactly that happened when this situation arose the last time. The other three times (if I counted correctly) in this century turned out the other way round though…
I’d flip a coin. Wasn’t sure whether the banzuke committee had stronger feelings for WTK or Papayasu. Maybe record won the day.
Wouldn’t 21 each in both East and West side be traditional instead of a 22/20 split?
Kirishima on O2w? I‘d like that, but – I‘m only guessing – they probably only balance sanyaku.
it’s mainly a matter of balancing the sanyaku on the physical banzuke because their shikona are written much larger, and making it M17w won’t help much (though that may have been done in the more distant past)
As recently as November we had the same East-weighted imbalance. https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=202511
I had Wakatakakage and Kotoshoho reversed based on Wakatakakage having the joi schedule. I’ll stick with that reasoning :) Of course it’s all a waste if Wakatakakage cannot show up uninjured.
In other news, I made a stupid spreadsheet error and attributed only 4 wins instead of 5 to Hakunofuji. That messed up several ranks – ugh!
May is out… https://www.sumo.or.jp/EnHonbashoBanzuke/index/
Better late then never!
So a few observations on the actual Banzuke:
Sanyaku was strictly by the numbers;
The trend of the last few basho continues for Maegashira with 7-8 records: maintain rank (Hiradoumi, Oho, Daiesho) unless not possible (Yoshinofuji);
Deep drops by upper tier rikishi (Wakamoroharu, Churanoumi) were half-rank demotion per win-loss differential instead of full rank;
Juryo promotions to Makuuchi were half-rank promotion per win-loss differential (M17.5 skipped since vacant);
Otherwise mostly by the numbers with greater wins often being the tiebreaker;
As always, the future could be different :)