Hey all, I’m back. Let’s talk about how the Aki results are likely to reshuffle the rankings for the November basho.
The named ranks
This is largely straightforward. At Yokozuna, title-winning Onosato will remain on the East side, ahead of absent Hoshoryu. The Ozeki order will rearrange according to their results: Aonishiki at O1e, followed by Kotozakura at O1w and Kirishima at O2e. The two Sekiwake successfully defended their ranks, but there’s a question about their order. Will 11-4 Fujinokawa leapfrog 8-7 Atamifuji? Unlike Yokozuna and Ozeki, there’s no clear rule about this, and the decisions in recent years have been inconsistent. Then we should have Churanoumi making his san’yaku debut at K1e, and Yoshinofuji returning to the Komusubi rank after a one-basho absence. Based on the odd decisions about the order of san’yaku rikishi on the September banzuke, I wouldn’t completely rule out the possibility of Yoshinofuji on the East side instead.
Upper maegashira
There should be no argument about Asanoyama taking the top maegashira spot, which would place him in a great position for a san’yaku return in January. After that, there is a gap, with no results that would earn a rank higher than M3. Takayasu would be first in the queue for M1w, but he had a losing record at M2e, so he is not eligible. It seems like the only real choice is to over-promote M4w Fujiryoga (8-7), who’s never dropped in rank since his March 2025 debut as Makushita tsukedashi. And then it gets tricky. We have a combination of dropping and rising rikishi whose records place all of them around M4/M5, and so they could be arranged in a lot of different orders. In addition to the aforementioned 7-8 Takayasu, the make-koshi group consists of the the two dropping Komusubi—Hakunofuji and Daieisho, both 5-10—the M1 Koto brothers, who also only managed 5 wins apiece, and M3e Gonoyama (6-9). The risers are M7e Fujiseiun (9-6), M8e Takerufuji (9-6), M8w Hiradoumi (9-6), and M9e Ura (10-5). The only definite here is the relative order of the Komusibi, the M1s, and the 9-6 trio; everything else is up for grabs.
Exchanges between Makuuchi and Juryo
The order of the rikishi in danger of dropping from the top division is as follows M16e Wakanosho (absent), M12e Wakatakakage (absent), M17e Shonannoumi (3-12), M14e Tobizaru (4-11), M11w Shodai (3-12), M14w Chiyoshoma (5-10). Conversely, the promotion queue in Juryo is J1e Dewanoryu (10-5), J3e Tamawashi (10-5), yusho winner J6e Kitanowaka (11-4), J5w Arashifuji (10-5), J1w Kyokukaiyu (8-7), J2e Daiseizan (8-7). The first 5 exchanges are pretty much set in stone. The only real uncertainty is whether Chiyoshoma has a very lucky escape, denying Daiseizan (or, less likely. Arashifuji). Tobizaru hasn’t been in Juryo since he made his Makuuchi debut 6 years ago at Aki 2020. But that’s nothing compared to Shodai, whose top-division run dates all the way back to his debut over a decade ago, in January 2016! The promotions would mark top-division debuts for Dewanoryu, Kyokukaiyu, and Arashifuji, as well as welcome returns for Iron Man Tamawashi (after a two-basho absence) and Kitanowaka, for the first time since a January 2025 injury sent him tumbling down the banzuke.
Exchanges between Juryo and Makushita
As I noted in a comment on Andy’s post, mega-prospect Asahifuji should be exchanged with Tochitaikai, and Ryuho with Nishikigi. The first is 100%, the second is more like 90%. The next exchange would be Ikarigata with Hatsuyama, but there’s almost no chance of it happening. Even less likely is Tamashoho getting exchanged with another mega-prospect, Tenshoyama, who was ranked outside the promotion zone and needed a 7-0 record. Asahifuji’s promotion after only five basho will tie the record for the fastest rise from Jonokuchi to sekitori, most recently accomplished by Enho. We’ll find out what actually happens here in a day or two, unlike the rest of the banzuke, where we’ll have to wait until October 26.
