Without further ado, here’s my final banzuke guess.
Kyushu Banzuke Crystal Ball
Kyushu Banzuke Talk
Hey all, I’m back. Let’s talk about how the Aki results are likely to reshuffle the rankings for the November basho.
The named ranks
This is largely straightforward. At Yokozuna, title-winning Onosato will remain on the East side, ahead of absent Hoshoryu. The Ozeki order will rearrange according to their results: Aonishiki at O1e, followed by Kotozakura at O1w and Kirishima at O2e. The two Sekiwake successfully defended their ranks, but there’s a question about their order. Will 11-4 Fujinokawa leapfrog 8-7 Atamifuji? Unlike Yokozuna and Ozeki, there’s no clear rule about this, and the decisions in recent years have been inconsistent. Then we should have Churanoumi making his san’yaku debut at K1e, and Yoshinofuji returning to the Komusubi rank after a one-basho absence. Based on the odd decisions about the order of san’yaku rikishi on the September banzuke, I wouldn’t completely rule out the possibility of Yoshinofuji on the East side instead.
Upper maegashira
There should be no argument about Asanoyama taking the top maegashira spot, which would place him in a great position for a san’yaku return in January. After that, there is a gap, with no results that would earn a rank higher than M3. Takayasu would be first in the queue for M1w, but he had a losing record at M2e, so he is not eligible. It seems like the only real choice is to over-promote M4w Fujiryoga (8-7), who’s never dropped in rank since his March 2025 debut as Makushita tsukedashi. And then it gets tricky. We have a combination of dropping and rising rikishi whose records place all of them around M4/M5, and so they could be arranged in a lot of different orders. In addition to the aforementioned 7-8 Takayasu, the make-koshi group consists of the the two dropping Komusubi—Hakunofuji and Daieisho, both 5-10—the M1 Koto brothers, who also only managed 5 wins apiece, and M3e Gonoyama (6-9). The risers are M7e Fujiseiun (9-6), M8e Takerufuji (9-6), M8w Hiradoumi (9-6), and M9e Ura (10-5). The only definite here is the relative order of the Komusibi, the M1s, and the 9-6 trio; everything else is up for grabs.
Exchanges between Makuuchi and Juryo
The order of the rikishi in danger of dropping from the top division is as follows M16e Wakanosho (absent), M12e Wakatakakage (absent), M17e Shonannoumi (3-12), M14e Tobizaru (4-11), M11w Shodai (3-12), M14w Chiyoshoma (5-10). Conversely, the promotion queue in Juryo is J1e Dewanoryu (10-5), J3e Tamawashi (10-5), yusho winner J6e Kitanowaka (11-4), J5w Arashifuji (10-5), J1w Kyokukaiyu (8-7), J2e Daiseizan (8-7). The first 5 exchanges are pretty much set in stone. The only real uncertainty is whether Chiyoshoma has a very lucky escape, denying Daiseizan (or, less likely. Arashifuji). Tobizaru hasn’t been in Juryo since he made his Makuuchi debut 6 years ago at Aki 2020. But that’s nothing compared to Shodai, whose top-division run dates all the way back to his debut over a decade ago, in January 2016! The promotions would mark top-division debuts for Dewanoryu, Kyokukaiyu, and Arashifuji, as well as welcome returns for Iron Man Tamawashi (after a two-basho absence) and Kitanowaka, for the first time since a January 2025 injury sent him tumbling down the banzuke.
Exchanges between Juryo and Makushita
As I noted in a comment on Andy’s post, mega-prospect Asahifuji should be exchanged with Tochitaikai, and Ryuho with Nishikigi. The first is 100%, the second is more like 90%. The next exchange would be Ikarigata with Hatsuyama, but there’s almost no chance of it happening. Even less likely is Tamashoho getting exchanged with another mega-prospect, Tenshoyama, who was ranked outside the promotion zone and needed a 7-0 record. Asahifuji’s promotion after only five basho will tie the record for the fastest rise from Jonokuchi to sekitori, most recently accomplished by Enho. We’ll find out what actually happens here in a day or two, unlike the rest of the banzuke, where we’ll have to wait until October 26.
Aki 2026: Senshuraku
Kitanowaka of Hakkaku-beya won the Juryo yusho. He defeated Kagayaki in regulation to force a play-off. Kayo joined the play-off as he beat Tamawashi. Kitanowaka then defeated Kagayaki and Kayo to claim the title.
What works once must work twice. Rinse and repeat, no?
The Makushita to Juryo promotion queue will be interesting. There’s precedent for elevating Makushita 4 with 4-3 records: Nabatame & Hoshoryu. There’s precedent for elevating Makushita 9 with a 6-1: Hakuho. There’s also precedent for keeping a 6-9 at the same rank. It will be interesting but I think Tochitaikai, Nishikigi, Tamashoho, Hatsuyama go down. Asahifuji, Ryuho, Ikarigata and Tenshoyama come up. What do y’all think? Frankly, the Sumo Association will do what the Sumo Association wants to do.
Special Prize Nominations:
Takayasu will get a Fighting Spirit prize if he wins and Onosato claims the yusho. Fujinokawa will receive an unconditional Fighting Spirit Prize. Churanoumi, Asanoyama, and Toshinofuji are eligible for Fighting Spirit Prizes if they win today. No one will receive a Technique prize. “No soup for you!”
NHK videos are here. Of all of the Juryo action available, the NHK posted the Tanji-Arashifuji bout. Enjoy.
Makuuchi Action
Kazuma defeated Shonannoumi. Kazuma shoved Shonannoumi out quickly. Oshidashi.
Chiyoshoma (5-10) defeated Shodai (3-12). Chiyoshoma charged forward and Shodai tried to change direction while shoving Chiyoshoma to the side but Chiyoshoma ran right through Shodai. Oshidashi.
Oho (7-8) defeated Tokihayate (8-7). Oho got his left arm inside and held Tokihayate up, under the shoulder. Oho used gaburi hip thrusts to drive Tokihayate back and out. Yorikiri.
Asasuiryu (8-7) defeated Shishi (7-8). Asasuiryu charged forward and Shishi gave up on the edge. Yorikiri.
Ura (10-5) defeated Tobizaru (4-11). It looked like a pair of clones out there, fighting with the same push-pull strategy. Eventually, Ura charged forward and DIDN’T pull. When he pressed forward at the edge, he forced Tobizaru out. Yorikiri.
Hiradoumi (9-6) defeated Toshinofuji (9-6). Hiradoumi hooked both arms inside Toshinofuji and pressed forward. Toshinofuji tried a throw at the edge but Hiradoumi bulldozed ahead and forced him out. No Special Prize for Toshinofuji. Yorikiri.
Takerufuji (9-6) defeated Asahakuryu (8-7). Takerufuji got low, hooked both arms inside, rotated and plowed through Asahakuryu. Yorikiri.
Abi (8-7) defeated Nishikifuji (7-8). Abi used strong tsuppari to force Nishikifuji back. Nishikifuji grabbed Abi’s left arm and tried an armbar. It nearly paid dividends and Abi stumbled forward but stopped before the tawara. Abi then pulled, shuffled along the tawara and slapped Nishikifuji down. Hatakikomi.
Fujiseiun (9-6) defeated Asakoryu (9-6). Asakoryu pulled and rotated but couldn’t throw Fujiseiun. Fujiseiun grabbed Asakoryu’s thong and got behind Asakoryu. [Cue Sisqo, “Thong song.”] Asakoryu kind of gave up and let Fujiseiun force him out from behind. I don’t think it was the wedgie that ended Asakoryu’s day. He flexed his right knee after the bout. Okuridashi.
Ichiyamamoto (4-11) defeated Kinbozan (9-6). Ichiyamamoto shifted slightly to the side after the tachiai and Kinbozan stumbled forward. Ichiyamamoto tracked in from behind like a velociraptor and shoved Kinbozan out from behind. Okuridashi.
Halftime
Gonoyama (6-9) defeated Wakamotoharu (10-5). Gonoyama charged forward and was careful about Wakamotoharu’s rotation, shoving him out. Oshidashi.
Yoshinofuji (9-6) defeated Asanoyama (10-5). Yoshinofuji rotated and crushed Asanoyama out. No special prize for Asanoyama. Yoritaoshi.
Fujiryoga (8-7) defeated Takayasu (7-8). Takayasu pivoted and pulled but Fujiryoga’s excellent footwork avoided defeat. Fujiryoga drove forward into Takayasu and looped his arm inside Takayasu’s shoulder. When Takayasu dug his heels into the tawara, Fujiryoga twisted and dragged him down. No Outstanding Performance prize for Takayasu. Sukuinage.
Kotoeiho (5-10) defeated Oshoma (6-9). Oshoma pulled while shoving Kotoeiho’s head down. Kotoeiho’s legs kept churning forward and he forced Oshoma out. Yorikiri.
Sanyaku
Churanoumi (10-5) defeated Daieisho (5-10). Daieisho hit Churanoumi with his thrust-pull combo. Churanoumi had read the brief. He blocked what tsuppari he could and then rushed Daieisho out.
Hakunofuji (5-10) defeated Roga (6-9). Roga briefly got the back of Hakunofuji’s belt but Hakunofuji charged ahead and forced him out. I do not wake up this early in the morning to watch Roga or Oshoma fight, that’s for sure. Yorikiri.
Kore-Yori-Sanyaku
Well, looky there. The kore-yori-sanyaku are all Sekiwake and above. That’s a good tournament. Terunofuji standing up in the hanamichi like, “bring home those arrows!”
Fujinokawa (11-4) defeated Atamifuji (8-7). Atamifuji wrapped up Fujinokawa with a kimedashi hold and drove forward. But he released Fujinokawa’s right arm so he could shove Fujinokawa with the left hand. Bad mistake. Freed from that kimedashi, Fujinokawa shifted left and used his left arm to heave Atamifuji over. That’s Fighting Spirit. Unconditional. Atamifuji walked back down the hanamichi only to see Ikioi and Terunofuji hunched over the replay screen. “Oh crap.” Sukuinage.
Kirishima (8-7) defeated Kotozakura (9-6). Nail-biter here as Kotozakura tried to catch Kirishima at the edge. Then he actually tried to overpower him with a yorikiri. Kirishima wanted the win more, needed the win more, and hauled Kotozakura over the edge. No kadoban Ozeki for Kyushu. Ain’t that something? Uwatenage.
Onosato (12-3) defeated Aonishiki (11-4). Onosato hit Aonishiki with tsuppari to the face, repeatedly. Aonishiki had that left-hand grip for a moment before the beating started. Onosato’s shoves broke Aonishiki’s hold and his resolve. That final left hand to the jaw looked uncomfortable. Shonosuke called a great bout, the last of his career. お疲れ様でした。 Tsukidashi.
Wrap-up
Onosato Yusho. The win appeared to hit him during the playing of the national anthem as he broke up and started to cry. He had to cover his face. It looks like this one really meant a lot.
We’ll see you back here in a couple of days for the Juryo promotion announcements
Tachiai Nakabi Meetup
One of the great pleasures of following sumo outside Japan is discovering just how many fans are quietly scattered around the world. Only recently, when having work done on my home, I met two fellow sumo fans in small Calvert County (a exurb of Washington DC). They saw my sumo-themed home izakaya and immediately knew they found a kindred spirit.
Just like any other sumo fan, we avidly follow each basho, celebrate the kachi-koshi of our favorite wrestlers, agonize over a mono-ii decision, and spend far too much time debating whether a promising recruit is really the next big thing. Yet most foreign fans experience the sport alone, behind a screen. We have to consume it via a stream, youtube videos, or other media that typically does not lend itself to a public gathering – particularly when most of the basho happens overnight in your time zone.
To combat this “isolationism” two Tachiai writers met at a local DC-area izakaya during the Aki 2026 basho on nakabi (middle day). We had no formal agenda, no drafts to discuss, no “official business”. Just good food, a few drinks, and several hours of uninterrupted sumo conversation.
There is something refreshing about sitting across from someone who already understands the sport and shares the same level of passion. The discussion drifted naturally across various sumo news and events as well as my recent experiences in Japan.
The afternoon served as a reminder that one of the best aspects of sumo is the community surrounding it.
Reviewing the tachiai statistics, I was surprised to see so many people viewing the site are from the greater Washington DC region. Between diplomats, government staff, academics, journalists, martial arts enthusiasts, Japanese expatriates, and sports fans looking for something different from the mainstream American sports calendar, there are undoubtedly far more sumo followers here than most of us realize.
So perhaps it is time to find them.
As the next tournament approaches, we’d love to gauge interest in an informal DC-area sumo gathering. Nothing elaborate. Just a friendly get-together at a Japanese restaurant or izakaya where fans can watch highlights, discuss the basho, argue about promotion cases, speculate about future sekitori, and perhaps meet fellow supporters for the first time.
Whether you’ve been following ozumo for thirty years or discovered it through YouTube six months ago, you’d be welcome. Some of the best sumo conversations happen when veteran fans and newcomers share a table.
Sumo has a way of creating connections across countries, languages, and backgrounds. The sport may be centered in Tokyo, but its community stretches much farther than that.
If you’re in the greater Washington area and think this sounds like fun, let us know in the comments. A mid-basho lunch between two sumo enthusiasts proved that the appetite is certainly there. Perhaps next basho, we’ll need a bigger table.
