The prediction got the named ranks exactly right, as well as the M1 rank, for 11 perfect predictions at the top. Admittedly, the only real question mark here was whether Fujinokawa’s 11 wins would be enough for him to leapfrog Atamifuji, which he did. The prediction was also perfect from M13 to M17, getting all the exchanges between Juryo and Makuuchi right, as well as the placement of those being promoted. In all, this is 20 ranks nailed exactly at the top and the bottom of the banzuke.
The Bad
Maybe calling it “bad” is a little harsh, but from M7 to M12, the prediction placed only 6 of the 12 rikishi at the exact position, plus 3 more at the correct rank but on the wrong side. All of the misses were the result of just two puzzling decisions by the banzuke committee. M4e Takanosho (4-9-2) got zero benefit for being ranked in the joi and fighting all the top guys, dropping a full 7 ranks, below Asakoryu, Shishi and Oho, who all got over-promoted or under-demoted as a result. But then, M6w Ichiyamamoto, who likewise had 4 wins and a much easier fight card, got a soft 5.5-rank demotion, placing ahead of Abi despite deserving to be a full rank lower by the numbers.
The Ugly
The prediction really went off the rails from M2 to M6. It had only one of the 10 rikishi at the correct rank, and even he ended up on the other side. Lots to complain about here. Why did M2e Takayasu (7-8) not hold rank, when he faced the toughest possible schedule of opponents and deserved to be ranked ahead of Ura and Fujiseiun by the numbers? Why did the committee feel the need to squeeze Takerufuji between the two demoted komusubi, dropping Daieisho to M4w? Why did Kotoshoho, Kotoieho, and Gonoyama get zero credit for their joi schedules?
We’ll have to see if the lack of respect for higher ranks was an idiosyncrasy of this banzuke, or if it’s a new trend. Now, it’s on to the basho!
Hey all, I’m back. Let’s talk about how the Aki results are likely to reshuffle the rankings for the November basho.
The named ranks
This is largely straightforward. At Yokozuna, title-winning Onosato will remain on the East side, ahead of absent Hoshoryu. The Ozeki order will rearrange according to their results: Aonishiki at O1e, followed by Kotozakura at O1w and Kirishima at O2e. The two Sekiwake successfully defended their ranks, but there’s a question about their order. Will 11-4 Fujinokawa leapfrog 8-7 Atamifuji? Unlike Yokozuna and Ozeki, there’s no clear rule about this, and the decisions in recent years have been inconsistent. Then we should have Churanoumi making his san’yaku debut at K1e, and Yoshinofuji returning to the Komusubi rank after a one-basho absence. Based on the odd decisions about the order of san’yaku rikishi on the September banzuke, I wouldn’t completely rule out the possibility of Yoshinofuji on the East side instead.
Upper maegashira
There should be no argument about Asanoyama taking the top maegashira spot, which would place him in a great position for a san’yaku return in January. After that, there is a gap, with no results that would earn a rank higher than M3. Takayasu would be first in the queue for M1w, but he had a losing record at M2e, so he is not eligible. It seems like the only real choice is to over-promote M4w Fujiryoga (8-7), who’s never dropped in rank since his March 2025 debut as Makushita tsukedashi. And then it gets tricky. We have a combination of dropping and rising rikishi whose records place all of them around M4/M5, and so they could be arranged in a lot of different orders. In addition to the aforementioned 7-8 Takayasu, the make-koshi group consists of the the two dropping Komusubi—Hakunofuji and Daieisho, both 5-10—the M1 Koto brothers, who also only managed 5 wins apiece, and M3e Gonoyama (6-9). The risers are M7e Fujiseiun (9-6), M8e Takerufuji (9-6), M8w Hiradoumi (9-6), and M9e Ura (10-5). The only definite here is the relative order of the Komusibi, the M1s, and the 9-6 trio; everything else is up for grabs.
Exchanges between Makuuchi and Juryo
The order of the rikishi in danger of dropping from the top division is as follows M16e Wakanosho (absent), M12e Wakatakakage (absent), M17e Shonannoumi (3-12), M14e Tobizaru (4-11), M11w Shodai (3-12), M14w Chiyoshoma (5-10). Conversely, the promotion queue in Juryo is J1e Dewanoryu (10-5), J3e Tamawashi (10-5), yusho winner J6e Kitanowaka (11-4), J5w Arashifuji (10-5), J1w Kyokukaiyu (8-7), J2e Daiseizan (8-7). The first 5 exchanges are pretty much set in stone. The only real uncertainty is whether Chiyoshoma has a very lucky escape, denying Daiseizan (or, less likely. Arashifuji). Tobizaru hasn’t been in Juryo since he made his Makuuchi debut 6 years ago at Aki 2020. But that’s nothing compared to Shodai, whose top-division run dates all the way back to his debut over a decade ago, in January 2016! The promotions would mark top-division debuts for Dewanoryu, Kyokukaiyu, and Arashifuji, as well as welcome returns for Iron Man Tamawashi (after a two-basho absence) and Kitanowaka, for the first time since a January 2025 injury sent him tumbling down the banzuke.
Exchanges between Juryo and Makushita
As I noted in a comment on Andy’s post, mega-prospect Asahifuji should be exchanged with Tochitaikai, and Ryuho with Nishikigi. The first is 100%, the second is more like 90%. The next exchange would be Ikarigata with Hatsuyama, but there’s almost no chance of it happening. Even less likely is Tamashoho getting exchanged with another mega-prospect, Tenshoyama, who was ranked outside the promotion zone and needed a 7-0 record. Asahifuji’s promotion after only five basho will tie the record for the fastest rise from Jonokuchi to sekitori, most recently accomplished by Enho. We’ll find out what actually happens here in a day or two, unlike the rest of the banzuke, where we’ll have to wait until October 26.
As Andy alluded to, the Makushita race didn’t end today. Asahifuji knocked off Omori on day 11, leaving Akua as the only 6-0 wrestler in the third division. Akua had his chance to claim the yusho today against 5-1 Mudoho but lost, bringing all the 6-1 rikishi back into contention. So we’ll have a big 7-way playoff on senshuraku. The participants are below. I believe the format is that they draw lots to pair them up for round one, with one lucky rikishi getting a bye. That leaves four, and they fight it out in a standard elimination format, with two semifinals followed by a final. It’s an interesting mix of prospects and veterans, and should be a fun watch. It’s the first such playoff since Aki 2023.
