Natsu Standings, Day 13

With 2 matches remaining, the picture is getting clearer:

Ozeki wins needed to avoid kadoban

Not an impressive performance by the Ozeki corps, to say the least!

  • Mitakeumi: 2
  • Shodai: will be kadoban in July
  • Takakeisho: 2

Wins needed to stay in san’yaku

  • Wakatakakage: will stay in san’yaku; needs one more win to stay Sekiwake
  • Abi: will stay in san’yaku; needs one more win to stay Sekiwake
  • Hoshoryu: 1
  • Daieisho: will be at least Komusubi in July

Frontrunners for san’yaku promotion

At most one slot may open, unless someone’s record is deemed strong enough to force an extra one to be created.

  • Kiribayama
  • Takanosho

Wins needed to stay in Makuuchi

  • Ishiura: will be demoted
  • Kotokuzan: will be demoted
  • Kagayaki: will be demoted barring a miracle
  • Azumaryu: 2
  • Takarafuji: 1 (might be safe already)

Wins needed for promotion from Juryo

Three slots are open in Makuuchi, and one or two more could open.

  • Tsurugisho: will be promoted
  • Hidenoumi: will be promoted barring really bad luck
  • Ryuden: 1 (might have done enough already)
  • Chiyomaru: 1
  • Several others: 2

Wins needed to stay in Juryo

Currently, there are 5 promotable records in Makushita, so there will in all likelihood be a logjam, unless the maximum possible 5 slots open.

  • Shohozan: will be demoted
  • Chiyoarashi: must win out; could be demoted anyway
  • Daishomaru, Takakento, Kitanowaka: 2

Natsu Standings, Day 12

With 3 matches remaining:

Ozeki wins needed to avoid kadoban

Not an impressive performance by the Ozeki corps, to say the least!

  • Mitakeumi: 3
  • Shodai: 3
  • Takakeisho: 2

Wins needed to stay in san’yaku

  • Wakatakakage: 2 to stay Sekiwake, 1 to stay in san’yaku
  • Abi: 2 to stay Sekiwake, 1 to stay in san’yaku
  • Hoshoryu: 1
  • Daieisho: will be at least Komusubi in July

Frontrunners for san’yaku promotion

  • Takanosho
  • Kiribayama
  • Ura

Wins needed to stay in Makuuchi

  • Ishiura: will be demoted
  • Kotokuzan: will be demoted
  • Kagayaki: 3
  • Azumaryu: 2
  • Several others: 1

Wins needed for promotion from Juryo

Two slots are open in Makuuchi, and one or two more could open.

  • Tsurugisho: will be promoted
  • Hidenoumi, Ryuden: 1
  • Chiyomaru: 2
  • Several others: 3

Wins needed to stay in Juryo

Currently, there are 3 promotable records in Makushita.

  • Shohozan: must win out, and could be demoted even if he does
  • Chiyoarashi, Daishomaru: 3
  • Takakento, Kitanowaka: 2
  • Churanoumi, Shimazuumi: 1

Makushita Yusho and Promotion Races

We are nearing the conclusion of the Makushita yusho race. Six rounds of bouts have whittled down the 120 or so rikishi to 2 undefeated wrestlers with 6-0 records. They will face each other on Day 13 to give us our champion.

The favorite is Ms8e Oshoma, who bested Ms18 Tochiseryu. Oshoma is only in his 4th tournament, having started at Ms15TD in November and gone 18-9 in upper Makushita. If he can go 7-0, he will get fast-tracked to Juryo. His next opponent will be wily veteran Ms30 Kitaharima, who dealt newcomer M59e Kanzaki his first loss after 12 straight victories following his debut at Sd100TD in March.

It’s not yet clear how many promotion slots will be open in Juryo, but the likely number is 3-4. Oshoma would claim one with a win. So would Ms1e Chiyonoumi (3-3), the highest-ranked rikishi in Makushita. We already have 3 potentially promotable records in the Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone: Ms2e Hokuseiho (4-2), Ms3e Chiyosakae (4-2), and Ms4w Kinbozan (5-1), but all would have a stronger claim with another win. Ms1w Nishikawa (3-3) is likely but not certain to be promoted with a win. Also mathematically still in it are Ms4e Roga, Ms5e Kotoyusho, and Ms5w Kamito, all 3-3, but they would need losses by Oshoma, Chiyonoumi, and Nishikawa just for the chance to be at best 4th in the promotion queue.

Natsu Standings, Day 11

With 4 matches remaining:

Ozeki wins needed to avoid kadoban

  • Mitakeumi: 3
  • Shodai: 4
  • Takakeisho: 2

Wins needed to stay in san’yaku

  • Wakatakakage: 2 to stay Sekiwake, 1 to stay in san’yaku
  • Abi: 3 to stay Sekiwake, 2 to stay in san’yaku
  • Hoshoryu: 2
  • Daieisho: 1

Frontrunners for san’yaku promotion

  • Kiribayama
  • Takanosho
  • Kotonowaka
  • Tamawashi
  • Ura

Wins needed to stay in Makuuchi

  • Ishiura: will be demoted
  • Kotokuzan: will be demoted
  • Kagayaki: 4
  • Azumaryu: 2
  • Several others: 1

Wins needed for promotion from Juryo

  • Tsurugisho, Hidenoumi: 1
  • Chiyomaru, Ryuden: 2
  • Several others: 3 or more

Wins needed to stay in Juryo

  • Kitanowaka: will be demoted returns on Day 12 needing 2 wins
  • Daishomaru, Shohozan: 4
  • Chiyoarashi: 3
  • Takakento, Churanoumi: 2
  • Several others: 1