The sekitori promotions have been announced. After a one-basho absence, Chiyomaru returns to the salaried ranks he occupied for over a decade. The others are new: Ms15TD starter Onokatsu, who makes it after 3 basho in Makushita with a combined 16-5 record, yusho winner Kazekeno, who started at the bottom two years ago and rose steadily before slowing down a bit in upper Makushita, and Tsukahara (now Tochitaikai), who was a strong prospect back in 2018, earning Jonokuchi and Jonidan yusho in his first two basho and getting to Makushita within a year, but then got stuck there, missing out on half a dozen prior promotion chances.
The corresponding demotions are not announced, but we can look at the ranks and records and confidently say that leaving Juryo are Kotoeko, Kitaharima, and Akua.
The stormy basho certainly lived up to its nickname! We’ve just witnessed a historic yusho by the rookie Takerufuji; may he heal fully from his injury and give us the kind of career that this brief glimpse suggests is possible. Now that all the hardware has been handed out, let’s take our customary preliminary look at how the Haru results are likely to reshuffle the rankings for Natsu.
Yokozuna and Ozeki
Terunofuji will remain alone atop the rankings. Tachiai wishes him the fullest recovery possible, and looks forward to a strong performance in May or whenever he is ready. With Takakeisho successfully clearing kadoban, we will have the same four Ozeki in May, although in a different order. Based on their Haru win totals, Hoshoryu will hold the top O1e slot for the first time, followed by Kotonowaka, Takakeisho, and Kirishima, who will be kadoban and needs 8 wins to defend his rank. Tachiai hopes for a return to form from the recent Yokozuna hopeful.
Lower San’yaku
Two of the four incumbents succeeded, and two flopped. S1w Wakamotoharu (9-6) will debut on the East side in his 6th appearance at the third-highest rank. His current rank will be taken over by K1e Abi (9-6), who returns to Sekiwake for the first time in two years. S1e Daieisho (6-9) leaves Sekiwake after a full year, and will make only his second maegashira apperance in two years. And Nishikigi’s second Komusubi appearance went even worse than his first. This leaves two Komusubi slots to be filled, and they will go to M1w Asanoyama (9-6), who finally returns to the named ranks after his 2021 fall from grace, and M5w Onosato (11-4), who debuts in San’yaku in only his 7th professional basho! He may have been overshadowed by Takerufuji’s legendary debut, but it’s still a remarkable start to a career. I believe Ichinojo is the only rikishi to rise to San’yaku this fast or faster (he did it in his 6th basho, and went straight to Sekiwake).
Upper Maegashira
Unlike last time, when there was a giant vacuum in this part of the banzuke, the incumbents acquitted themselves well. Half of the wrestlers ranked M1-M5 posted winning records, and only one ended with double-digit losses. That one rikishi, M3w Takanosho (5-10), will fall out of the top 10 maegashira ranks, and so will M5e Midorifuji (7-8), but just barely. Rising to take their spots, as well as those vacated via promotion to Komusubi, are M6w Gonoyama (10-5), M8w Takayasu (11-4), and M8e Onosho (9-6). Along with Daiesho and such holdovers as Atamifuji, Hiradoumi, Tobizaru, Ura, Oho and Meisei, there should be plenty of firepower here to trouble the named ranks in May.
The Juryo Barge
With a nod to Bruce, “the barge of the damned” will be captained by injury victim M12w Shimazuumi (0-4-11). At first mate will be M14w Kitanowaka (3-12), who is 8-22 in his two top-division appearances. And the third fully booked passage belongs to M16e Endo (5-10), who’s spent only two basho in Juryo in his entire eleven-year career (once in his 3rd basho, on his way up, and once following his career-altering knee injury in 2016). There’s speculation that the veteran and fan favorite, who’s long owned a kabu, may opt to retire rather than fight in the second division. Two more rikishi posted records that leave them in danger of demotion: M15e Myogiryu (6-9) and M16w Daiamami (7-8); both lost on the final day when a victory would have meant safety. I’ve heard injured M6e Tsurugisho mentioned in the demotion conversation, but I believe his two wins should be just enough to keep him in Makuuchi.
On the Juryo side of the exchange, yusho winner J2w Mitoryu (12-3) is guaranteed to go up, along with J4w Oshoma (11-4) and J1e Tokihayate (8-7). Mitoryu has made a couple of forgettable top-division apperances, while the other two will be making their debuts. The final two promotion candidates are J1w Takarafuji (8-7) and J3w Tomokaze (9-6). Will both, one, or neither go up at the expense of Myogiryu and Daiamami? If only one, who? It’s close, and I’ll need to look into this further before making a guess.
Sekitori Promotions
Finally, let’s wrap up the action in Makushita and see who did enough to cross the Heaven/Hell boundary and enter the salaried ranks. One slot in Juryo is open due to Hokuseiho’s “retirement”; this should be the last time his name appears in one of these posts. Two more will be vacated by J12e Kotoeko (1-14) and J14e Kitaharima (4-11). There are three clear candidates to take their spots: yusho winner J13w Kazekeno (7-0), who gets the coveted automatic promotion that goes to an undefeated wrestler ranked Ms15 or higher, top-ranked longtime sekitori, his roundness Ms1e Chiyomaru (4-3), who returns after a one-basho absence, and the last-ever Ms15 tsukedashi, Ms2w Onokatsu (5-2). Two more men have promotion claims: Ms3w Kayo (4-3) and Ms4w Tsukahara (5-2). I think Tsukahara will swap places with J13e Akua (6-9) after winning their “exchange bout” on Day 15, leaving Kayo out in the cold. That is, unless Endo were to retire ahead of the banzuke meeting on Wednesday, which would create an extra slot.
We’ll learn the sekitori promotions on Wednesday, but we’ll have to wait for the rest until the Natsu banzuke is released on April 30. I’ll try to get a full banzuke post up before then, though work may get in the way. In the meantime, let me know what you think in the comments.
The Makushita yusho and promotion races are coming down to the wire, with 6 of 7 bouts completed. Let’s check in on what’s at stake in the final round of bouts.
There are at least three open slots in Juryo. There’s Hokuseiho’s spot, of course. J12e Kotoeko (1-10) is all but certain to go down, and J14e Kitaharima (3-8) would not be safe even with 4 more wins and looks headed for a record-tying 9th demotion to Makushita, from where he can try for a record-setting 10th sekitori promotion. Several other incumbents still need one or two wins for safety.
The Makushita yusho race, unusually for this stage, has only one undefeated rikishi. Ms13w Kazekeno bested Ms27e Asahakuryu to advance to 6-0, but Ms43e Wakatakamoto lost to Sd3w Nagamura, who has now knocked three straight Makushita opponents out of the race. Nagamura should return to Sandanme for a likely title decider against Ukrainian sensation Aonishiki (20-0 so far in his career), while Kazekeno will likely face the best-available 5-1 opponent (Onokatsu?), although a creative alternative would be to pit him against Chiyomaru (see below). A win by Kazekeno would give him the title; a loss would throw open the door to a big playoff among 6-1 rikishi on senshuraku!
In the race for sekitori promotion, Kazekeno is still in the running, but he must win his final bout to claim the spot that goes to an undefeated wrestler from the Ms1-Ms15 extended promotion zone. Top-ranked Ms1e Chiyomaru (3-3) likewise must win to go up, which would make a bout between the two a suitably high-stakes affair. As for the rest of the regular Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone, only Ms2w Onokatsu (5-1) already has a clear case for a Juryo debut. Ms3w Kayo (3-3), Ms4w Tsukahara (4-2) and Ms5w Nabatame (4-2) have to try to win their final bouts and hope for losses by Kazekeno, Chiyomaru, and endangered Juryo incumbents. Expect to see a series of cross-division exchange bouts in the closing days.
In Juryo, after J10w Wakatakakage won and J8e Asakoryu lost today, the yusho race is right back where it was when we last checked in on Day 6, with the duo tied at 8 wins apiece. Trailing them is J7w Daishoho (7-2) and 3 rikishi with 6 wins, among them leading promotion contender J2w Mitoryu. Tomorrow’s bouts could shake up the race, as Wakatakakage is matched with Daishoho and Asakoryu fights Mitoryu. Checking in on a few other notable names, J1e Tokihayate (5-4) is 3 wins away from a Makuuchi debut, J1w Takarafuji is further back at 4-5, and J13w Hakuoho (5-4) has continued to struggle, losing to J11w Aoiyama (3-6) today.
There likely will be at least three open slots in Juryo. There’s Hokuseiho’s spot, of course. J12e Kotoeko (1-8) would probably need to win out from here to save himself, and if he had that in him, he wouldn’t be 1-8; similarly, J14e Kitaharima (3-6) seems unlikely to pick up the 5 wins he needs from safety and looks headed for a record-tying 9th demotion to Makushita, from where he can try for a record-setting 10th sekitori promotion.
The Makushita yusho race is down to 3 undefeated rikishi: Ms13w Kazekeno, Ms27e Asahakuryu, and Ms43e Wakatakamoto. It’s 3 and not 4 because Sd3w Nagamura (5-0) has now knocked two Makushita opponents out of the race. It should be Kazekeno vs. Asahakuryu and Wakatakamoto vs. Nagamura on Day 11. If Wakatakamoto wins, we’ll have a straightforward title decider on Day 13 between him and the winner of the other semifinal. If Nagamura can make it 3-0 against Ms opposition, I would expect the winner of the other semifinal to face the best-available 5-1 opponent instead, either taking the title or throwing open the door to a big playoff among 6-1 rikishi on senshuraku. I know which outcome I’m rooting for!
The race for sekitori promotion is also getting clearer. Kazekeno is still in the running, but he must win out to claim the spot that goes to an undefeated wrestler from the Ms1-Ms15 extended promotion zone. In the regular Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone, only Ms2w Onokatsu already has a promotion claim at 4-1, though he could use another win to ensure a Juryo debut. Ms1e Chiyomaru (3-2) can ensure an immediate sekitori return with one more win. Ms1w Tenshoho (2-3) and Ms2e Yuma (2-3) would have a good chance of going up by winning out, but each would be eliminated with a single loss. Finally, we have three rikishi at 3-2: Ms3w Kayo, Ms4w Tsukahara and Ms5w Nabatame. Each needs to record at least one more win, ideally two, and hope for favorable results elsewhere. The only relevant action on Day 10 is Tsukahara visiting Juryo to try to ensure Kotoeko’s demotion; expect a series of similar cross-division potential exchange bouts down the stretch.
