A very short post while we are dealing with sumo withdrawal symptoms 🙂 I’m guessing many regular readers of Tachiai are aware of the sumo forum. For those who are not, I’d like to draw their attention to this masterful update on likely post-Nagoya promotions and demotions by our frequent commenter Asashosakari. This is the latest in a must-read series of posts during the latter stages of each basho.

Yesterday, I previewed the rikishi who had something to fight for on the last day. How did they do?

Hakuho: never a doubt! How did he ever lose to Mitakeumi?

Goeido, desperate for a win, was easily handled by “no gifts” Takayasu, who finally had his game face on again.

Tamawashi, desperate for a win, also seems to have lost his mojo, and will drop from his Sekiwake rank after 4 basho, and possibly (likely?) out of san’yaku altogether. He lost to Tochiozan, who should by all rights find himself in san’yaku, but as discussed in my previous post, there’s quite a logjam.

Mitakeumi beat Onosho in the battle for a special prize. Mitakeumi moves over to the East side, and Onosho joins the joi.

Aoiyama did what he needed to do, but so did Hakuho. If the schedulers have a sense of humor, these two will face each other on day 1 at Aki. Aoiyama joins the san’yaku hopefuls logjam. Yoshikaze is guaranteed a san’yaku slot, along with Mitakeumi, and most probably moves up to Sekiwake.

Tochinoshin’s loss may improbably keep him out of san’yaku despite an extremely impressive tournament at M2. Ichinojo reverted to poor form and missed a golden opportunity to move up from the mid-maegashira ranks. Ura broke his losing streak and should more or less keep his rank. M10e Chiyotairyu and M10w Shohozan both improved to 10-5 and will float way up the banzuke. Finally, Tokushoryu lost the “winner stays in Makuuchi” playoff to Nishikigi.

This assumes no retirements.

Yokozuna ranks: no change. Hakuho 1e, Harumafuji 1w, Kisenosato 2e, Kakaryu 2w.

Ozeki ranks: “No gifts” Takayasu 1e, kadoban twin #1 Goeido 1w, kadoban twin #2 Terunofuji 2e.

Sekiwake: special prize winner Mitakeumi 1e, “extracurriculars” Yoshikaze 1w.

Komusubi: Tochiozan 1e/ “The Mountain” Aoiyama 1w.

I don’t think they’ll do it, but by the numbers alone, it wouldn’t be out of the question for Tochiozan to jump over Yoshikaze for the Sekiwake slot.

Conveniently, there are exactly 5 good candidates to round out the “joi for sure” ranks, M1e-M3e: Tochinoshin, Tamawashi, Kotoshogiku, Hokutofuji, and Onosho. Yes, I do see Tamawashi falling all the way out of san’yaku alongside Kotoshogiku. Tochiozan and Aoiyama’s cases for promotion are just too strong to ignore. This is certainly controversial, as 7-8 Sekiwake have tended to only be demoted to Komusubi. So is jumping Tochiozan and Aoiyama ahead of Tochinoshin, who accumulated a less shiny record against a much tougher schedule. Will there be one open san’yaku slot or two, and who will fill them? This is much less straightforward for Aki than it usually is, and the banzuke may be less “by the numbers.”

From there, it’s slim pickings, with the next 3, quite likely to be pressed into at least some joi duty again given recent history, being Chiyotairyu and Shohozan, all the way up from M10, and everyone’s favorite new face, Ura, probably just moving over to the West side at M4w.

Down at the other end of the banzuke, Kaisei will be back in Makuuchi, and may jump as high as M12. He should be joined by Yutakayama, Asanoyama, and Myogiryu, with Aminishiki just missing out on promotion, who should be joined at the top of Juryo by the yusho winner Daiamami. I’m looking forward to Asanoyama’s Makuuchi debut. Dropping down to Juryo to make room should be Tokushoryu, Sokokurai, Kotoyuki, and  Gagamaru.

I’ll post full banzuke predictions for Makuuchi and Juryo as we get closer to Aki.

One day left!

Hakuho wins his 39th yusho with a win over Harumafuji, an Aoiyama loss, or a playoff win over Aoiyama.

Harumafuji is playing spoiler/fighting for Yokozuna pride.

Goeido is facing Takayasu with kadoban status on the line. Will Takayasu take it easy, or fight for Ozeki pride?

Tamawashi faces Tochiozan with his Sekiwake rank on the line. Tochiozan is first in line for the Komusubi slot vacated by Kotoshogiku but needs a win to lock it down, so there’s plenty of incentive on both sides.

Mitakeumi faces Onosho. Not too much on the line for either guy: Mitakeumi has defended his Sekiwake rank, isn’t starting an Ozeki run, and can at best move to the East side. Onosho probably can’t jump Tochiozan, Tochinoshin, and Aoiyama for a san’yaku slot, and may have already have locked down a special prize for the second basho in a row. Still, I expect a spirited battle between these two.

Aoiyama finally draws a real opponent in Yoshikaze. Yoshikaze has defended his Komusubi rank, and should move up to Sekiwake with a Tamawashi loss. Aoiyama will likely be at M1 in Aki win or lose, but obviously has lots of incentive to win.

If Tamawashi loses, he may drop all the way out of san’yaku, with Yoshikaze taking his place and opening up a second Komusubi slot. This slot would be Tochinoshin’s to lose, although Aoiyama is a contender win a win.

Kotoshogiku will complete his fall into the upper maegashira ranks, if he doesn’t retire. Of those not already mentioned, only Hokutofuji has earned a place in the joi. This still leaves some upper maegashira ranks to fill, and the best contenders are Ura (despite the losing streak), Ichinojo (who can still get his kachi koshi against Sadanoumi tomorrow), Chiyotairyu, and Shohozan.

Sokokurai looks Juryo-bound, with Asanoyama and Yutakayama currently on track to join Kaisei in promotion to Makuuchi. Tokushoryu and Nishikigi are on the bubble, and fight each other, with Myogiryu and Aminishiki vying to displace the loser in Makuuchi. How cool would it be to see Aminishiki back in the top division at age 38, after more than a year in Juryo?

Here’s where we are after day 13.

Hakuho still leads the yusho race with one loss. Aoiyama, despite stepping out first, got the decision today and is one loss back. Inexplicably, the schedulers have not brought him up to fight tougher opposition on day 14—he gets M12 Takekaze. Harumafuji and Tochiozan are still mathematically in it with 3 losses each.

Goeido still needs a win to avoid kadoban status, though with the way Takayasu is fighting, this now seems easier than it did a couple of days ago. Takayasu seems happy to rest on his kachi koshi.

Tamawashi is in real trouble, and needs to win out to stay at Sekiwake. Ura in his current state shouldn’t be too much of a challenge tomorrow, though he’s nothing if not unpredictable. The day 15 opponent (Tochiozan?) should provide a stiffer challenge.

Mitakeumi now needs to win out (again Tochiozan tomorrow and perhaps Onosho Sunday) to barely initiate an Ozeki run.

Yoshikaze needs to win out to control his destiny for a Sekiwake slot without having to depend on Tamawashi losing. He has Onosho and (likely) Ura.

Kotoshogiku needs to win out to stay in san’yaku; Tochinoshin should pose a stiff challenge tomorrow, as would Hokutofuji on Sunday.

If a san’yaku slot or two open up, Tochiozan is in the pole position, followed by Tochinoshin and Aoiyama, with Hokutofuhi and Onosho within striking distance. Other than these 5, it’s slim pickings for the upper maegashira ranks at Aki; amazingly, the M10 pair of Chiotairyu and Shohozan are the next-highest-ranked rikishi to make kachi koshi or even have a winning record, although Ura, Ichinojo, and Ishiura can still get there by winning out.

Kotoyuki and Gagamaru are headed down to Juryo, Kaisei is headed back up, and as of now Asanoyama would join him. Several others down in Juryo may end up promotion-worthy, but will slots be opened up for them through demotion? Sokokurai probably needs to win out to avoid demotion, and Tokushoryu, Okinoumi, and Nishikigi probably need a win; none have easy match-ups on day 14.