Hey all, I’m back. Let’s talk about how the Aki results are likely to reshuffle the rankings for the November basho.

The named ranks

This is largely straightforward. At Yokozuna, title-winning Onosato will remain on the East side, ahead of absent Hoshoryu. The Ozeki order will rearrange according to their results: Aonishiki at O1e, followed by Kotozakura at O1w and Kirishima at O2e. The two Sekiwake successfully defended their ranks, but there’s a question about their order. Will 11-4 Fujinokawa leapfrog 8-7 Atamifuji? Unlike Yokozuna and Ozeki, there’s no clear rule about this, and the decisions in recent years have been inconsistent. Then we should have Churanoumi making his san’yaku debut at K1e, and Yoshinofuji returning to the Komusubi rank after a one-basho absence. Based on the odd decisions about the order of san’yaku rikishi on the September banzuke, I wouldn’t completely rule out the possibility of Yoshinofuji on the East side instead.

Upper maegashira

There should be no argument about Asanoyama taking the top maegashira spot, which would place him in a great position for a san’yaku return in January. After that, there is a gap, with no results that would earn a rank higher than M3. Takayasu would be first in the queue for M1w, but he had a losing record at M2e, so he is not eligible. It seems like the only real choice is to over-promote M4w Fujiryoga (8-7), who’s never dropped in rank since his March 2025 debut as Makushita tsukedashi. And then it gets tricky. We have a combination of dropping and rising rikishi whose records place all of them around M4/M5, and so they could be arranged in a lot of different orders. In addition to the aforementioned 7-8 Takayasu, the make-koshi group consists of the the two dropping Komusubi—Hakunofuji and Daieisho, both 5-10—the M1 Koto brothers, who also only managed 5 wins apiece, and M3e Gonoyama (6-9). The risers are M7e Fujiseiun (9-6), M8e Takerufuji (9-6), M8w Hiradoumi (9-6), and M9e Ura (10-5). The only definite here is the relative order of the Komusibi, the M1s, and the 9-6 trio; everything else is up for grabs.

Exchanges between Makuuchi and Juryo

The order of the rikishi in danger of dropping from the top division is as follows M16e Wakanosho (absent), M12e Wakatakakage (absent), M17e Shonannoumi (3-12), M14e Tobizaru (4-11), M11w Shodai (3-12), M14w Chiyoshoma (5-10). Conversely, the promotion queue in Juryo is J1e Dewanoryu (10-5), J3e Tamawashi (10-5), yusho winner J6e Kitanowaka (11-4), J5w Arashifuji (10-5), J1w Kyokukaiyu (8-7), J2e Daiseizan (8-7). The first 5 exchanges are pretty much set in stone. The only real uncertainty is whether Chiyoshoma has a very lucky escape, denying Daiseizan (or, less likely. Arashifuji). Tobizaru hasn’t been in Juryo since he made his Makuuchi debut 6 years ago at Aki 2020. But that’s nothing compared to Shodai, whose top-division run dates all the way back to his debut over a decade ago, in January 2016! The promotions would mark top-division debuts for Dewanoryu, Kyokukaiyu, and Arashifuji, as well as welcome returns for Iron Man Tamawashi (after a two-basho absence) and Kitanowaka, for the first time since a January 2025 injury sent him tumbling down the banzuke.

Exchanges between Juryo and Makushita

As I noted in a comment on Andy’s post, mega-prospect Asahifuji should be exchanged with Tochitaikai, and Ryuho with Nishikigi. The first is 100%, the second is more like 90%. The next exchange would be Ikarigata with Hatsuyama, but there’s almost no chance of it happening. Even less likely is Tamashoho getting exchanged with another mega-prospect, Tenshoyama, who was ranked outside the promotion zone and needed a 7-0 record. Asahifuji’s promotion after only five basho will tie the record for the fastest rise from Jonokuchi to sekitori, most recently accomplished by Enho. We’ll find out what actually happens here in a day or two, unlike the rest of the banzuke, where we’ll have to wait until October 26.

As Andy alluded to, the Makushita race didn’t end today. Asahifuji knocked off Omori on day 11, leaving Akua as the only 6-0 wrestler in the third division. Akua had his chance to claim the yusho today against 5-1 Mudoho but lost, bringing all the 6-1 rikishi back into contention. So we’ll have a big 7-way playoff on senshuraku. The participants are below. I believe the format is that they draw lots to pair them up for round one, with one lucky rikishi getting a bye. That leaves four, and they fight it out in a standard elimination format, with two semifinals followed by a final. It’s an interesting mix of prospects and veterans, and should be a fun watch. It’s the first such playoff since Aki 2023.

As noted yesterday, this was the quarterfinal bracket:

Super-prospect Asahifuji had perhaps his toughest match yet against Fudoho, just prevailing at the edge by shitatenage to counter his oppenent’s uwatenage attempt. He will next face Omori “the handsome”, who nonchalantly swatted aside Tatsubayama after the latter engaged in a pre-bout stare-down worthy of Hoshoryu. Veteran Akua defeated Anhibiki and will next fight Tanji, who came out ahead in a spirited battle with Ikarigata. If Omori can stop Asahifuji, we’ll have a straightforward title decider on day 13 between him and the winner of Akua vs. Tanji. Otherwise, that winner will be matched with the best available 5-1 opponent, opening the door to a big playoff.

By remaining undefeated, Tanji also keeps alive his hopes of Juryo promotion should he finish 7-0 in the extended promotion zone. Here are how things stand in the regular promotion zone:

Takakento, Shimanoumi, and injured Wakanofuji are already out of the running, and no one else is exactly breaking down the door, though Arashifuji (formerly Matsui) is currently in pole position. We’ll have a better sense of the exchange picture after the next round of bouts.

It’s day 8, which means the first 4 rounds of lower-division bouts have been completed. Here’s the day 9 bracket for the quarterfinals:

We get our first look at super-prospect Asahifuji, who visits from Sandanme to fill out the bracket. He fights Fudoho rather than lowest-ranked Omori in order to break up the Tokitsukaze pair of Fudoho and Tatsubayama. Asahifuji is the Isegahama Mongolian who trained in the heya for several years before his debut while he waited for ex-Terunofuji to retire and open up the foreigner slot. He was very highly touted, and hasn’t disappointed to this point, taking the Jonokuchi and Jonidan yusho and running his career record to 18-0 (not counting two playoff wins). His opponent debuted at Ms60TD in March with a 4-3 record.

Tatsubayama is another Mongolian who debuted last July, took the Jonokuchi yusho, and has a 27-3 record (with two absences). He’ll fight newcomer Omori, aka “the hunk.” The third bout pairs Anhibiki, who also took the Jonokuchi in his first basho, in January 2024, but has slowed down since, with former maegashira, salt thrower, and bow twirler Akua, the only grizzled veteran to make the quarterfinals. Finally, we get Tanji, who started 4 years ago but is still only 19, against Ikarigata, Fujinokawa’s more highly touted brother. It promises to be a good day of action tomorrow!