Natsu Day 13 – Ones To Watch

Naya Gives An Opponent A Flying Lesson..

With just a couple of days left, its time for our “Ones to Watch” to head to their final matches of Natsu. Many of the rikishi we are following managed to already score their 4th win, taking the pressure off for the final day. While none of them are in competition for divisional yusho, most of them have fought well this May, and will find themselves with new, more difficult challenges in Nagoya.

This will be a great day of lower division sumo, as most of the yusho will be decided today as the remaining 6-0 rikishi face off to find the best of each division. The action in Makushita the past 2 days has been extraordinary, in many cases exceeding what we have seen in Juryo and Makuuchi for nearly every match. The playoffs are a bit akward this time, as some of the divisions have 3 undefeated rikishi. In that case two of them meet head to head, and the third takes on a 5-1 rikishi, with a playoff on Sunday if needed to decide the yusho.

Makushita:
Takanofuji (Ms2w) vs Chiyoarashi (Ms35e)

Sandanme:
Shiraishi (Sd100TD) vs Hokutotsubasa (Sd22w)
and
Hokutokawa (Sd12w) vs Kirinoryu (Ms56e)

with a playoff on senshuraku if needed.

Jonidan:
Tochikamiyama (Jd42w) vs Terasawa (Jd14w)
and
Ito (Jk20e) vs Okinohama (Jd78w)

Yes, a Jonokuchi undefeated against a Jonidan

Jonokuchi:
Watanabe (Jk11e) vs Kawabuchi (Jk24e)

Indeed, this time the lower division yusho races are a complete and utter mess. Let the best man win!

Day 13 Matches

Wakamotoharu vs Shiba – Both rikishi already have a losing record tally for Natsu, this match is to see how far down the banzuke they will fall. This is especially bitter for Wakamotoharu, who needed a simple kachi-koshi to join his brother in Juryo.

Ichiyamamoto vs Akiseyama – In the mean time, Juryo promotion candidate Ichiyamamoto visits sumo’s 2nd highest division to try his skill against Akiseyama, who is in need of a couple more wins to secure his Juryo spot in July. So this could in effect be an “exchange bout” -lksumo.

Wakatakamoto vs Shonannoumi – It’s Onami brother madness, with all 3 of them on the dohyo today. Sadly, Wakatakamoto shares his brother’s make-koshi result for Natsu, and will find himself pushed down the banzuke in July. The only prior match with Shonannoumi was last year during Natsu, and Wakatakamoto prevailed.

Naya vs Bushozan – Naya is possibly going to join the Makushita joi for Nagoya, and this 5-1 bracket match will decide the magnitude of his promotion. No matter who wins this one, there will be a good chance of a Naya vs Bushozan rematch in 2 months time.

Terunofuji vs Daishozen – A Sandanme 5-1 match. The disappointment was evident on Terunofuji’s face when he stumbled to his only defeat on day 8 against Sd51w Daishosei. Today’s opponent, Daishozen, is tiny compared to Terunofuji. I am going to look for another stand-up tachiai, grab-and-toss kimarite today.

Shoji vs Koshinoryu – This 3-3 “Darwin Match” will see the winner get their kachi-koshi and the loser relegated to demotion with a make-koshi. This is their first ever match, and we will be hoping for some solid sumo from Shoji, who may soon have Wakaichiro chasing him.

Kitanowaka vs Chiyooume – While I am sure he is disappinted to not be fighting for the Jonokuchi yusho, Kitanowaka is blasting his way out of sumo’s lowest division no matter what. A win today would likely seal his rank into the lower quartile of Jonidan for the sweat-box that is Nagoya.

Hattorizakura vs Nangu – They found someone with an 0-6 recored for Hattorizakura to face! Poor Nangu has been kyujo since the start of the basho, but comes back for his final match: against sumo’s wagoto mainstay. Congrats Nangu on your impending win!

Natsu Storylines, Day 12

Who will take the yusho?

“The situation is changing every day. We cannot even say the race is limited to those two. Kakuryu and Asanoyama may even face each other [suggesting that Kakuryu’s bout with Goeido or even but less likely Tochinoshin might be scrapped!]. Making the torikumi is tough for the shimpan division. It’s almost to the point where they’d like to see the results after day 14 to decide.”

The Kyokai second highest executive Oguruma oyakata, via the Sumo Forum.

Yokozuna Kakuryu and M8 Asanoyama are your Day 12 co-leaders wth 10-2 records. Sekiwake Tochinoshin trails by one, followed by a group of six rikishi with 8-4 records who are somehow not completely out of it.

The race is set to change yet again tomorrow when Tochinoshin and Asanoyama face each other. Kakuryu won’t have an easy day either, taking on Ozeki Takayasu (7-5). While the career record favors the Yokozuna 12-8, and Takayasu has been struggling this basho, he has defeated Kakuryu in their last 4 bouts.

As the quote above suggests, the scheduling for the contenders for the final weekend may not follow the usual playbook, and we could be in for a number of unusual and exciting matchups to settle the yusho race. Buckle up!

Will Tochinoshin regain his Ozeki rank?

Going back to the previous tournament, Tochinoshin has now lost three consecutive bouts in which victories would have saved or restored his Ozeki rank. His next shot comes tomorrow against the tournament co-leader, whom he bested in their only prior meeting. Asanoyama’s yotsu style should favor Tochinoshin, but he’ll have to overcome nerves and whatever else that may have derailed him in the last two bouts. Should he fail, he will have two remaining opportunities to re-ascend to sumo’s second highest rank, but those will almost certainly be against two of the three highest-ranked men in the tournament.

Who will occupy the San’yaku ranks in July?

East Komusubi Aoiyama (5-7) needs to win out to defend his rank (or even move up). West Komusubi Mitakeumi (7-5) is one victory away from staying in San’yaku. Tochinoshin is one victory away from vacating his slot via promotion, and Ichinojo (3-6-3) will be vacating his via demotion.

Tamawashi now leads the promotion derby after his defeat of Asanoyama, who drops into a virtual tie with Abi. Others with plausible promotion chances are Kotoshogiku, who must win out, Ryuden, Shodai, and Meisei.

Who will be in Makuuchi in July?

Chiyoshoma (4-8) is now make-koshi at the last rank in the top division, and would have to benefit from remarkable banzuke luck for a third-straight basho to stay up even if he wins out; one more loss sends him down for sure. Tokushoryu (3-9) is next in line, and even three more victories may not be enough to save him. At the moment, Ishiura is the third man going down, though he can still save himself by winning all of his remaining matches. Kagayaki is right on the bubble and needs two victories to be safe, while one more should be enough for Terutsuyoshi. Everyone else should be back in Makuuchi in July.

Takagenji (11-1) will make his top-division debut in Nagoya. Top-ranked Toyonoshima (7-5) needs to win one more bout to join him in Makuuchi, while Kotoyuki (9-3) probably needs two victories. Other second-division men have only faint hopes of moving up, requiring a combination of them winning out and poor performances by all of the demotion candidates above.

Who will make the jump from upper Makushita to Juryo?

There could still be as few as three demotable records in Juryo, or as many as seven. Ms2w Takanofuji (6-0) is assured of promotion, and I would guess that so is Ms3w Kizakiumi (5-1). The other open slots should go to some combination of Ms2e Kotokamatani (4-3), Ms3e Ichiyamamoto (4-2), Ms4e Ryuko (5-1), and Ms4w Hoshoryu (3-3), depending on how they fare in the closing days.

Senshuraku Live Blog

UPDATE: The live blog is up – https://tachiai.org/?p=30618

For more on the President’s visit to the final day of the summer sumo tournament, check here – https://tachiai.org/tag/presidential-sumo-visit/

Just to give readers early notice, we will be live-blogging senshuraku overnight Saturday into Sunday. We will have friends of the blog live in the Kokugikan, plus team coverage from around the globe tuned in to video coverage. We expect Prime Minister Abe, US President Trump, and possibly His Serene Highness Emperor Naruhito to be in attendance.

As a reminder, we may close comments on some posts, in an attempt to keep political commentary out of our sumo coverage. Frankly I think our current Natsu story lines (which lksumo covers with excellent posts) are far more compelling than any governmental nonsense. So let’s just ignore the elected people, and focus on which one of these guys will take the cup, and if Tochinoshin can find a way to get his 10th win.

Natsu Day 12 Highlights

No commentary this morning, straight to the matches!

Highlight Matches

Takagenji defeats Tokushoryu – Takagenji looked solid today in his 11th win of the tournament, using a combination of oshi and yotzu techniques to shut down Tokushoryu. Takagenji is running away with Juryo yusho, and will make his Makuuchi debut in July.

Terutsuyoshi defeats Yago – Yago was controlling this match until he tried to pull Terutsuyoshi down by the neck. Given the size difference and how the mechanics would work, a pull down against a much shorter opponent was foolish. Bad habits I suppose.

Sadanoumi defeats Shohozan – When Sadanoumi can get into his offense immediately at the tachiai, he tends to win. Shohozan knew he had trouble, and tried to pivot into a throw, but could not follow through.

Daishoho defeats Kagayaki – I am not sure what is plaguing Kagayaki, but he’s running the risk of resetting to Juryo. Daishoho had him beat in foot placement, body placement and grip. Daishoho is one win away from a kachi-koshi.

Onosho defeats Enho – Enho took Onosho on face to face, and found that while Onosho may over-commit, when you are in front of him, that can work to his advantage.

Chiyomaru defeats Tomokaze – Tomokaze inching closer to his first make-koshi (it’s ok, everyone gets them in the top division). Chiyomaru keeps Tomozake in front of him, and keeps his thrusting attack running well.

Shodai defeats Tochiozan – Look at Shodai’s stance as Tochiozan is working on pulling him down, that is some solid sumo foot work. Tochiozan decided he was going to try to pull Shodai down twice, each time giving up about ⅓ of the dohyo, and he found himself at the bales, off balance and in trouble. Shodai had the sumo sense to give him enough of a shove to send him out. Shodai is now kachi-koshi.

Yoshikaze defeats Ishiura – I like Yoshikaze’s tachiai in this match, he stands up kind of slowly, keeping his eye on Ishiura the whole time. Ishiura seems to lose whatever battle plan he might have, and Yoshikaze slaps him around for his troubles.

Myogiryu defeats Nishikigi – Nishikigi picks up make-koshi, after getting Myogiryu in the double arm lock that Nishikigi prefers. Twice Nishikigi tried to pivot into a throw, but Myogiryu was just too stable to get rolled.

Okinoumi defeats Kotoeko – I again call readers attention to Okinoumi’s foot work. Foot placement is the primary sumo defense mechanism, and Okinoumi’s foot movement is quiet, controlled and deliberate compared to Kotoeko jumping about.

Tamawashi defeats Asanoyama – We knew this was coming, Tamawashi drives inside and keeps thrusting against center-mass. Asanoyama’s got excellent defensive foot placement, but there is just too much power behind Tamawashi’s sumo, and Asanoyama goes back, back, and out. Tamawashi is kachi-koshi while Asanoyama gives up sole possession of yusho race leadership.

Endo defeats Hokutofuji – Hokutofuji’s attempt to pull early in the match opened the door and Endo walked right through, getting inside, then a left hand inside, then morozashi. Hokutofuji gave it his all, but Endo had is “good” sumo on today.

Kotoshogiku defeats Chiyotairyu – Chiyotairyu’s canon-ball tachiai seemed to only have half power today, and Kotoshogiku took the hit and got his double inside grip. Advancing, he did not engage the hug-n-chug, but rather loaded a tsukiotoshi, and rolled Chiyotairyu to the clay. Kotoshogiku’s experience may carry him to 7 or 8 wins in the final days, when some others are running out of focus or stamina.

Mitakeumi defeats Daieisho – Mitakeumi swithces back to the burgundy mawashi after a bad run in the burt orange one, and his sumo has returned to a better form, too. Now one win from kachi-koshi and a likely return to Sekiwake.

Ichinojo defeats Aoiyama – A strength battle with a combined 400 kg or so on the dohyo. For us Americans, thats 900 pounds of rikishi battling it out. This quickly turned into a mawashi battle, and I am pleased to say that Aoiyama recused himself well, but there was just too much Ichinojo to move, to toss or to pull down. Great match today from the Boulder.

Meisei defeats Tochinoshin – Many fans expected Tochinoshin to pick up #10 today, but Meisei got Tochinoshin’s balance shifted to his heels at the tachiai, and just kept driving forward. The last 2 days we have not seen Tochinoshin generate much in the way of forward pressure, has he re-injured that foot?

Abi defeats Takayasu – Exact same recipe used against Tochinoshin on day 11, Abi uses Takayasu’s shoulder blast as the energy source to raise him up and slap him down. The look on Abi’s face when presented with that pile of kensho is priceless.

Goeido defeats Takarafuji – As expected, Takarafuji gave a very technical, workman like match to Goeido, but Goeido did not lose his patience today, and masterfully controlled Takarafuji in nearly every facet of this match.

Kakuryu defeats Ryuden – After some crummy sumo day 11, we see some strong, powerful work from the Yokozuna today. That right hand grip is nearly perfect, and Kakuryu’s foot placement was exactly right. Not that Ryuden’s form was poor today, just that Kakuryu was excellent.

At the end of day 12, Kakuryu and Asanoyama share the lead in the yusho race with 10-2, with Tochinoshin one loss behind.