News from the infirmary today was quite the shocker: Hoshoryu is out, a man with an outside role and an important role in this weekend’s action (mainly as speed bump in Terunofuji and Kotonowaka path to the yusho). It changes the math quite a bit as Terunofuji gets a default win, rather than something a bit closer to a coin-flip.
In Juryo, Takerufuji clinched the Juryo yusho and locks in a hefty rise up the banzuke in March, which should be rather close, but just shy, of the makuuchi promotion line.
Makuuchi Action
Endo (5-9) defeated Roga (9-5). Nothing to say about this. Yorikiri.
Takanosho (9-5) defeated Bushozan (4-10). Nothing to say about this. Hatakikomi.
Tsurugisho (8-6) defeated Shimazuumi (9-5). Excellent throw from Tsurugisho. As Shimazuumi charged forward, Tsurugisho swung him forward with his firm left-hand outside grip. Hand on head to help drive him to the clay, textbook. Uwatenage.
Oho (9-5) defeated Takarafuji (5-9). The Takarabune enjoyed a leisurely cruise on a starboard tack, testing the strong easterly winds. Disaster struck quickly when his yard arm broke, somehow penetrated the hull and forced him to sink. The Takarabune will be in drydock to receive some emergency maintenance for tomorrow’s voyage home. Will that be the final sail of the Takarabune? Katasukashi.
Onosato (10-4) defeated Sadanoumi (6-8). Sadanoumi nearly had Onosato! He quickly locked on with his left hand and heaved Onosato to the side. Onosato kept his balance, recovered and drove through the wily veteran. Kirikaeshi.
Kotoshoho (9-5) defeated Mitakeumi (5-9). Nothing to say here but I should have taken the time to grab some coffee. Yorikiri.
Onosho (9-5) defeated Meisei (8-6). Onosho pressed forward but Meisei countered and stopped Onosho’s forward motion. Onosho just wrapped his big arm around Meisei’s neck and swung them both down. Gunbai to Onosho. Mono-ii confirmed the gyoji’s decision. Kubinage.
Tomokaze (5-9) defeated Ichiyamamoto (5-9). Tomokaze charged forward and Ichiyamamoto’s pull yielded nothing. Oshidashi.
Churanoumi (6-8) defeated Shonannoumi (3-11). Churanoumi quickly pulled Shonannoumi down at the tachiai. Tsukiotoshi.
Nishikigi (8-6) defeated Tamawashi (8-6). Tamawashi is already kachi-koshi. He did not go all out. Zero tsuppari. Instead, he tried to wrap up Nishikgi and half-heartedly attemt to pitch him over the side. Really disappointing bout. The two waltzed together, half-way around the ring, before Nishikigi ushered Tamawashi over the edge. Like one of those games in Week 17 where a team with a shot at the playoffs plays the reserves of a team that already has the conference crown locked up two weeks before. Yorikiri.
Halftime
Hiradoumi (7-7) defeated Tobizaru (7-7). Hiradoumi locked horns with Tobizaru. Tobizaru escaped his grip but Hiradoumi continued to press forward and bulldozed Tobizaru from the ring. Onshidashi.
Gonoyama (5-9) defeated Myogiryu (4-10). Myogiryu tried to throw Gonoyama but Gonoyama escaped and shoved Myogiryu out. Oshidashi.
Midorifuji (5-9) defeated Ryuden (3-11). Midorifuji got a lock on Ryuden’s shoulder, and spun him to the ground. Katasukashi.
Abi (8-6) defeated Wakamotoharu (9-5). Abi’s attempted henka was caught by Wakamotoharu but as Wakamotoharu attacked, Abi ducked away again. Both men stepped out so a mono-ii was declared and the gyoji’s decision was confirmed. Hikiotoshi.
Asanoyama (9-2-3) defeated Atamifuji (6-8). Asanoyama plugged forward and drove Atamifuji out. I have seen a lot of pulling from Atamifuji during this tournament and it seems to coincide with some interesting calls from the judges to favor the forward-moving rikishi. Atamifuji might want to refocus his efforts on improving his forward moving sumo that had been so successful. Yorikiri.
Sanyaku
Ura (5-9) defeated Shodai (4-10). Ura bulled forward, head down into Shodai. Shodai tried to rip Ura’s arm out (or just heave him over the bales) but Ura retreated. In retreat Ura grabbed Shodai’s right arm, dragged him forward and forced him down. This is the beauty of sumo. Tottari.
Terunofuji (12-2) fusensho. Hoshoryu (10-4) kyujo.
Daieisho (8-6) defeated Kinbozan (6-8). Kinbozan spent this bout pivoting and retreating from Daieisho’s thrusts. But Daieisho pursued and never lost his footing. Oshidashi.
Kotonowaka (12-2) defeated Kirishima (11-3). The big bout of the day. Matta. Matta. Kirishima came at Kotonowaka with a nodowa and apparently no plan for what to do afterward. Kotonowaka endured the nodowa and held his ground. “Is that all you have, geezer?” Kotonowaka broke off the grip and then followed up his own nodowa with an effective pulldown. That forced Kirishima forward and allowed Kotonowaka to come in from behind and shove Kirishima out. Yorikiri.
Wrap-up
I think a lot of the Kirishima skepticism was proven justified today. These results do not entirely close the door to yusho (and likely Yokozuna promotion) but it is being held open a mere crack. Maybe Hoshoryu’s real injury is that his knee is stuck in that door. Let’s look at the math. For a Kirishima yusho he will need to beat Terunofuji tomorrow, Kotonowaka will need to lose, and then Kirishima would have to defeat both in consecutive bouts in the resulting playoff. If each bout is a coinflip, we’re looking at a 6% chance. Since we know these bouts are not coin-flips, the real probability is less than 0.06.
The real yusho race now comes down to Terunofuji and Kotonowaka. We have already discussed what happens if both men lose. If both men win their bouts tomorrow, they will face each other in a playoff. If either man wins while the other loses, the man who wins his bout will claim the yusho with a 13-2 record.
Now, to Kotonowaka’s other prize here: Ozeki promotion. Do you think he has done enough already, with today’s victory over Kirishima? I doubt it. Since he will face a maegashira tomorrow, he will be expected to win that bout and face Terunofuji in a playoff, if he doesn’t win the yusho outright. I am not sure if the Kyokai will draw that line in the sand and make it clear between now and then but I will bring any updates to you.