The preview of this version of the post-Hakuho era is turning out to be a lot of fun. The dai-Yokozuna is benched due to his heya going covid-kyujo, and so Terunofuji is the lone rope for September. He has set a blistering pace that everyone is trying to match, and it has created some great story lines. Going into the final two days, we still can’t quite be sure who will take the cup. It’s looking strong for Terunofuji, as the team that is 1 win behind have no yusho experience, but lots and lots of fighting spirit.

On day 13 only one rikishi reached kachi-koshi, and 3 hit make-koshi. It left us with a huge crowd at 6 or 7 wins, providing a lot of candidates for 7-7 records to start day 15. While I gave up on “the funnel” at the start of act 3, we may in fact get to a healthy slate of Darwin matches on the final day. But the exciting matches of day 14 will finalize the roster, and I expect that the senshuraku torikumi will be posted late, as the schedulers wait to see who has what record before deciding the last day’s fight card.

Highlight Matches

Tochinoshin defeats Kagayaki – A match of uncomfortable sumo! You don’t see Kagayaki fighting chest to chest very much, and I certainly did not expect Tochinoshin to proceed to struggle to keep up when Kagayaki did. Everyone, including Kagayaki, knew that if he paused and let Tochinoshin set is feet, he would overpower him, and that came a few heartbeats later. Interesting try, Kagayaki! Tochinoshin improves to 7-6, and could reach kachi-koshi tomorrow. Color me surprised!

Hidenoumi defeats Yutakayama – Yutakayama was stalemated on his attempt to get his hands inside and start thrusting. Hidenoumi stayed strong on defense, and found a moment to grab and tug against Yutakayama’s push, launching Yutakayama forward into a beltless arm throw. Hidenoumi improves to 6-7.

Aoiyama defeats Tsurugisho – Something we have not seen much of this basho, Big Dan’s V-Twin! He brought it out today and blasted 200kg Tsurugisho into make-koshi. It’s brilliant when it works, and against a man who struggles to move north and south like Tsurugisho, it’s a perfect weapon. Aoiyama improves to 7-6.

Kaisei defeats Tobizaru – Tobizaru decided not to use the hit and move strategy that was really his only hope against someone that large. He went chest to chest, got a bit of armpit attack going, and then just waited. That was never going to work, because it was Kaisei’s “brand of sumo” through and through. Kaisei improves to 5-8 after marching Tobizaru out, sending him to his 8th loss and make-koshi for September.

Terutsuyoshi defeats Tokushoryu – If you are Terutsuyoshi, you may as well henka this match. I am surprised that Tokushoryu was not looking for it, and went straight to the clay. Terutsuyoshi picks up his 4th win.

Shimanoumi defeats Ichiyamamoto – Ichiyamamoto opened strong with a series of combos that gave Shimanoumi no chance to respond. It fell apart when Ichiyamamoto decided it was time to try to pull Shimanoumi down, and Shimanoumi took control, running Ichiyamamoto out for a win. Shimanoumi improves to 6-7.

Ura defeats Chiyonoo – Better sumo today from Ura, he did work early on hand placement and got a right hand under Chiyonoo’s arm, and had at least some grip to work with. Chiyonoo defended well, and stalemated Ura at the center of the dohyo. Chiyonoo chose to make a move, and in doing so gave Ura a chance to press forward, and Chiyonoo found himself quickly run back into the corner, giving Ura the win and improving to 5-8.

Kotoeko defeats Chiyoshoma – That’s five in a row for Kotoeko. What happened on day 8 that switched him from pathetic to genki? Whatever it was, I am glad it happened. Chiyoshoma tried a pull at the end of the match that resulted in a monoii, to review the camera footage. The gumbai was affirmed, and Kotoeko improves to 7-6. Kachi-koshi tomorrow?

Daieisho defeats Chiyotairyu – Chiyotairyu tried his traditional “stand him up, slap him down” opening gambit, but Daieisho was ready, delaying his big starting push until the pull came from Chiyotairyu. Chiyotairyu had no defensive foot placement, and was rushed into the corner for a loss. Daieisho scores his 8th win and is kachi-koshi.

Wakatakakage defeats Chiyomaru – Chiyomaru’s big belly prevents him from attacking lower down his opponent’s body, so we typically see him thrusting against someone’s face or shoulders. This leaves his chest open for an attack, which was Wakatakakage’s focus. When Chiyomaru’s heels hit the bales, he released pressure, and Wakatakakage got both hand inside, and started to run Chiyomaru out. A last minute throw attempt failed, giving Wakatakakage his 7th win.

Endo defeats Kiribayama – Kiribayama’s third straight loss, and if he can’t get to 8 wins its going to be quite a shame. Endo met him at the tachiai, and instantly knew he was far in front of his toes. A single downward strike against Kiribayama’s forearms was enough to send him tumbling forward and down. That’s double digits, 10-3 for Endo. As predicted prior to the tournament, Endo ranked this low was going to win a lot of matches.

Takanosho defeats Chiyonokuni – Going into today, Chiyonokuni had never won a match against Takanosho. Today, Chiyonokuni saw Takanosho winding up for a big charge, and tried to step to the side, but Takanosho caught him as he dodged, with Chiyonokuni not in a defensive stance, and tossed Chiyonokuni out. Takanosho improves to 7-6.

Hoshoryu defeats Tamawashi – Hoshoryu showed a lot of aggression today, leaving Tamawashi’s match plan in tatters. As Tamawashi worked to set up some counter-offense, Hoshoryu continued to pound away. Tamawashi’s sole attack was a poorly configured uwate, that only fueled Hoshoryu winning combo. Hoshoryu improves to 4-9, Tamawashi 5-8 and make-koshi.

Ichinojo defeats Okinoumi – You can watch that match, and think “Ichinojo’s grip does not look that strong”. But given the size and the mass, I am sure it was like a machine shop press-break, and was more than enough to control Okinoumi and pivot him out. When someone as big and strong as Ichinojo has his sumo together, its going to be a question of what he will use to beat you. Ichinojo improves to 7-6.

Meisei defeats Takarafuji – Takarafuji has found his defenses overcome far too many times that basho. It’s his primary technique, and mechanically it still looks sound. Today Meisei was able to shift pressure lower down Takarafuji’s body until he overcame the ottsuke, resulting in a clear path to press forward. Meisei charged ahead to take the win, both men end the day 6-7.

Myogiryu defeats Takakeisho – A soft tachiai today from Takakeisho, and I have to wonder if he has dialed that back now that he is kachi-koshi as a move to decrease risk or re-injuring his neck. Without the initial forward drive, he does not generate much attack pressure against Myogiryu, who eventually gets the Ozeki in a tentative hold, and throws him to the clay. Myogiryu picks up his 10th win to finish the day 10-3.

Onosho defeats Shodai – Shodai went straight into the “Wall of Daikon” defense at the tachiai, and nearly had Onosho out. The the junior tadpole dropped his arms, found Shodai’s big chest, and drove ahead with every gram of his considerable power. Shodai could not stop him, and tried a throw with one step to spare, but could not complete the rotation. Onosho improves to 10-3.

Terunofuji defeats Mitakeumi – Mitakeumi had about 4 seconds to win this match, and we saw him put everything he could into the tachiai and the initial surge past the shikiri-sen. Terunofuji absorbed, gave a bit of ground and took Mitakeumi to his chest. Although it took a while longer for the Mitakeumi to step out, it was over at this moment. Once captured by the current form of Terunofuji, if his feet are set, you are done. Terunofuji dominate, and improves to 11-2.

If you have not read lksumo’s post on the macro-situation in the top two divisions going into the final weekend, go read it now. As always, he is Team Tachiai’s pro at knowing the chances for promotion and demotion, and it’s worth the read.

There are 5 rikishi up for kachi-koshi today, and 6 up for make-koshi. I expect at least half in each group to make their 8th and affirm their promotion or demotion for November. Then there is the broad group of 6-6 rikishi, 8 in all, who are prime candidates for Darwin matches. To make it to that state is going to require them to win one, and lose one over the next 2 days. If the schedulers were being complete bastards, this group of 8 would only fight between each other, with the goal of carrying them all to 7-7 to start day 15. but it looks like that is not quite the case.

Today’s action should be fast and brutal, and I can’t wait to see how it turns out.

Aki Leaderboard

With Terunofuji’s day 12 loss to Meisei, the yusho race has broadened considerably. The group 1 win behind do not have a single yusho between them, and I expect that none of them will be able to mount a respectable challenge. The group 2 wins behind contains 3 rikishi with prior yusho, but for them to get in range, it will require someone to put Terunofuji on the clay for a 3rd loss.

Leader: Terunofuji
Hunt Group: Onosho, Okinoumi, Myogiryu, Endo
Chasers: Shodai, Takakeisho, Mitakeumi, Chiyonokuni

3 matches remain

What We Are Watching Day 13

Kagayaki vs Tochinoshin – I am surprised that Tochinoshin has manage to get his score to 6-6. In the early days of this basho, he looked ready for the barber. But like so many long suffering veterans, he found some way to fight around his injuries and squeeze out enough wins to keep him in the hunt. He’s not kachi-koshi yet, but even if he “loses out” he is going to survive in the top division to November. He has a 7-2 career record against Kagayaki, and if those goes to Oshi-zumo like Tochinoshin’s day 12 match against Chiyonokuni, its going to be painful.

Yutakayama vs Hidenoumi – Yutakayama can pick up kachi-koshi if he can overcome his 0-6 career deficit against Hidenoumi. A Yutakayama win would send Hidenoumi to his 8th loss, but I think we will more likely see Hidenoumi take home the win.

Aoiyama vs Tsurugisho – Two massive near 200kg guys smashing it out – what could be better? Oh yeah, if Tsurugisho loses today, he’s make-koshi. In spite of the pain he is in every day, I guess he’s going to summon everything he can for these last 3 matches. Aoiyama at 6-6 is in that group that may be eligible for a Darwin match. Lots at stake, so I am expecting a lot of sumo.

Kaisei vs Tobizaru – Tobizaru has a chance to avoid make-koshi today, by staying mobile and not allowing Kaisei to latch on to his mawashi. If he fails to do that, he’s will pick up his 8th loss today.

Tokushoryu vs Terutsuyoshi – Both come in with matching, terrible, 3-9 records. Tokushoryu is already headed to Juryo short of some odd miracle, and Terutsuyoshi is now wearing his 4th make-koshi in the past year. This is a battle of the miserable, and I hope both men come back strong in November.

Shimanoumi vs Ichiyamamoto – A first time match up, and a Shimanoumi loss today would be make-koshi for him. It’s clear that Ichiyamamoto is still fighting hurt, and will be returning to Juryo in all likelihood.

Ura vs Chiyonoo – Both men are make-koshi, and Chiyonoo is likely on his way back to Juryo. So today is all about setting up how far down the banzuke Ura will fall. He’s got a chance to “win out” now, and end up in the middle of the rank and file in November. Ura has a 4-2 career advantage, and I am hoping he is past some of the poor sumo that plagued is day 12 match against Chiyotairyu.

Chiyoshoma vs Kotoeko – I now think one of the great stories of this basho could be Kotoeko’s come back. If he manages to pick up 2 wins, he could be kachi-koshi. Given his 4 match winning streak, I wonder if he is going to be able to make it work. He holds a 9-4 career lead over Chiyoshoma, who could use another win or two to keep him from falling too far down the banzuke.

Chiyotairyu vs Daieisho – Winner gets kachi-koshi, and given Chiyotairyu’s 6-2 hot streak, its going to be up to him to blast Daieisho at the tachiai before he can set up his big thrusting attack. If you want to see an explosive tachiai, this could be your match.

Wakatakakage vs Chiyomaru – Chiyomaru can reach kachi-koshi if he can overcome Wakatakakage’s speed and agility. Working in Chiyomaru’s favor – his absolutely enormous belly. His personal bollard, it makes it tough to do anything other than try to grab his head. Wakatakakage’s best attack route is to get to the side and attack.

Endo vs Kiribayama – Kiribayama has lost the last 2 in a row, and is still trying to come up with his 8th win. If he should prevail over Endo (they have a 1-1 career record), he would knock Endo out of the group 1 win behind Terunofuji. Both men have a lot on the line today, and I expect them both to be at maximum energy for this match.

Chiyonokuni vs Takanosho – A Maegashira 17 takes on a Maegashira 1, I am sure someone in the torikumi group was itching to do this, so here we are. Grumpy Badger Chiyonokuni is going to try to knock Takanosho into a 7th loss, and set him up for a Darwin match on day 15. Chiyonokuni has never won a match against Takanosho in 3 attempts, so it’s a tall order indeed.

Hoshoryu vs Tamawashi – Tamawashi is one loss away from make-koshi. He has had a middling tournament through and through, with a standout win against Takakeisho on day 6. Hoshoryu comes into day 13 at 3-9, and is going to take a big fall down the banzuke no matter what. His sumo is still getting stronger with each tournament, and if he gets pushed too far down the November ranking, he’s going to tear up his peers.

Okinoumi vs Ichinojo – Ichinojo is at 6-6, and needs 2 more wins to hang on to his sna’yaku posting. He has absolutely pounded the stuffing out of his last 3 opponents, and Okinoumi is going to need to mind his sumo today. Ichinojo has a 6-2 career lead, and it’s going to be rough.

Takarafuji vs Meisei – Meisei is coming from a day 12 win over Yokozuna Terunofuji, and may be on a well deserved adrenalin high. Takarafuji has had two rough matches in the past two days, and needs to win 2 more to hit kachi-koshi. I don’t have a good idea how this one is going to play out, but I think that Meisei has an advantage today.

Myogiryu vs Takakeisho – Myogiryu has lost every one of the 13 matches where he faced Takakeisho. This may have been a “gimmie” match to save Takakeisho should he have dropped his day 12 bout with Takarafuji. Myogiryu is part of the group one win behind Terunofuji, and I expect him to pick up loss #4 today.

Shodai vs Onosho – Another match intended to pick off one of the 9-4 chasers, but I don’t think that this one is a sure thing. Onosho is disposed to hot and cold streaks, and there is no denying he is enjoying a hot streak this September. I think there will be a narrow window where Onosho can blast Shodai into submission, but it may only be 3 steps before Shodai’s “wall of daikon” defenses kick in, and remove any chance for the junior tadpole to reach double digits.

Mitakeumi vs Terunofuji – The big match, it’s Mitakeumi’s chance to create an opportunity for his 3rd yusho. He has not beating Terfunofuji since Aki 2020, and has lost 5 in a row. The odds are not in his favor. But that discounts motivation. We don’t know what kind of shape Terunofuji’s knees are in. That dohyo-iri may in fact be taking a toll on his fighting ability, as we are seeing him drop matches into week 2. So all eyes will be on this one, with Mitakeumi wanting to end the match in the first 3 steps, and Terunofuji working to stalemate the original tadpole, and shut him down.