Ichiyamamoto (一山本)

Always Regrettable Predictions: Haru XL Edition

Josh K Abi (阿炎), Asanoyama (朝乃山), Atamifuji (熱海富士), Churanoumi (美ノ海), Daiamami (大奄美), Daieisho (大栄翔), Endo (遠藤), Gonoyama, Haru Basho 2023, Hiradoumi (平戸海), Hokutōfuji (北勝富士), Hoshoryu, Ichiyamamoto (一山本), Kinbozan (金峰山), Kirishima, Kitanowaka (北の若), Kotonowaka, Kotoshoho, Meisei, Midorifuji, Mitakeumi(御嶽海), Myogiryu (妙義龍), Nishikifuji (錦富士), Nishikigi, Oho (王鵬), Onosato (大の里), Roga (狼雅), Ryuden (竜電), Sadanoumi (佐田の海), Shimazuumi (島津海), Shonannoumi, Shōdai (正代直也), Takakeishō (貴景勝), Takanosho, Takayasu (高安), Takerufuji (尊富士), Tamawashi (玉鷲), Terunofuji (照ノ富士), Tobizaru, Tsurugisho, Ura (宇良), Wakamotoharu (若元春), Ōnoshō (阿武咲)

The Kyokai’s delivered us a wonderful banzuke, lksumo has explained its relation to the Crystal Ball and now the countdown to sumo begins. Enough of this scandalous talk, how about some of our Tachiai Always Regrettable Predictions™ in literary format?

Y Terunofuji (last result: 13-2, yusho): That was a big yusho for the Yokozuna. I think he bought himself – and the sport – quite a bit of time with his results at the Hatsu basho. It was a very confident performance and quite a few of the wins didn’t appear to even need max effort, which is critical for him. Remember those idiots grumbling a few years ago about all of the “part time Yokozuna?” You should be careful what you wish for, we used to have four and now we’re lucky to have one part time Yokozuna. He is never fully fit, and I don’t think he’s going to need to finish this basho if he starts it. But he’s still – for now – the best. Prediction: Kyujo

O1E Kirishima (11-4): I’ve written recently that Kirishima’s hatsu could have gone a very different way and altered the immediate future of the sport entirely. It didn’t, but it’s a credit to him that, on a rope run, he put up a very competent performance over 15 days. I think he’s in contention this time until the end as well, although it’s not going to get any easier. This is his last tournament under the current shisho before he moves stables, and he will want to punctuate it with Yusho number 3. I think he will get it, with some bumps along the way. Prediction: 13-2 Yusho (or 12-3 and a playoff win).

O1W Hoshoryu (10-4-1): I think he was wise to withdraw following his injury in the last tournament once it was clear he couldn’t win it, having already been safely kachi-koshi. The injury will be a question mark, and his mentals always seem to mean he lets himself down in a match or two, but he has taken another step forward and I think he is in the yusho race. Prediction: 12-3 jun yusho.

O2E Takakeisho (2-2-11, kadoban): He needs 8 wins to retain his ozeki rank and I am going to make a big non-call here and say it’s a coin flip. At his best, he is an immediate yusho contender, but his chronic injury problems are difficult to ignore. I do think he will get his 5th yusho at some point, but it won’t be here. His shisho retires in 2 years and while it’s questionable whether the Kyokai would give the keys to a 29 year old (especially in light of recent events), it wouldn’t surprise me if he hung up the mawashi at that point. In any case, the schedulers have been wont to pull Ozeki from the big matches late on if they are out of contention (“doing a Shodai”), and Takakeisho could get a similar favour (or indignity) here. Prediction: 8-7.

O2W Kotonowaka (13-2 playoff loss, promoted to Ozeki): We’ve seen big names struggle upon promotion or to come back after a yusho win, after all of the various festivities. Kotonowaka has been on a big promo tour recently, but I think not winning the yusho actually helps him here: there will have been enough fanfare, but I also think he’s probably mentally strong enough to deal with it, and he comes from a vaunted sumo family. He already made plans to dispose of his father’s shikona when he took it on Juryo promotion, saying he’d take his grandfather’s name when he became an Ozeki. Big words, and he’ll allegedly back them up in May when he takes the Kotozakura name. Some folks on Sumo Forum have been slinging around a lot of “what if he’s kadoban” chat. If he’s healthy, he won’t be. Prediction: 11-4.

SE Daieisho (9-6): He’s riding a streak of 7 consecutive kachi-koshi, all with at least 9 wins and 4 in the double digits. He has been so good and so consistent and it sometimes goes a bit under the radar. It was tough to see his Ozeki run fall apart last summer, and the heat might get turned up a bit over these next few tournaments. I think he’s replaced Tamawashi as the serial thruster of the lower-san’yaku ranks. Prediction: 9-6.

SW Wakamotoharu (10-5): He’s deservedly back in san’yaku after a very competent tournament last time out where he took several scalps (including the Yokozuna’s in order to clinch his first kinboshi). I think the level is now too high for him to mount a serious Ozeki challenge but these brothers are for real. If Kirishima opts for Arashio beya after his stable closes down, it could be a real powerhouse for the next few years with the Onami brothers and the Ozeki getting crucial torikumi advantages. Wakamotoharu was a late bloomer and all the Ozeki ahead of him are his junior but I think he’ll do OK here. Prediction: 9-6.

KE Abi (8-7): I do love Abi and on every occasion that he’s been demoted from san’yaku, he’s bounced straight back with a winning record. A lot of his wins last time were against guys having awful tournaments and at this rank, I don’t know that you can really count on that to get you through. I think he’s going to yo-yo back down to the rank-and-file. Prediction: 6-9.

KW Nishikigi (8-7): Late in his career, he’s had a real blossoming into someone who’s been able to take advantage of the dearth of upwardly mobile stars over the past few years while the top division was in stasis. That period seems to be coming to an end (despite the extremely generous “there wasn’t anyone else” promotion). When you compare his dance card from last basho with what he’s likely to encounter this time, I’d be fearful he’s headed for double digit losses, at least. But I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt due to his track record, and hold him at an even ten. Prediction: 5-10.

M1E Ura (6-9): Last tournament’s respectable record on his Komusubi debut leaves him squarely in the joi and I’m just not sure that’s the place to be right now. He will spring a shock or two and I think he will be highly motivated to get back to Komusubi or better, but I don’t think it’s going to happen here. My gut tells me to tip him for 11 losses or more. If it was anywhere other than his home basho in Osaka with the crowd 200% behind him and creating a raucous atmosphere, I do think it would be a lot uglier. Prediction: 6-9.

M1W Asanoyama (9-3-3): He was firmly in the yusho hunt last time with seven straight wins, before his loss to Tamawashi took him out of the tournament. He did well to come back and get kachi-koshi. He is starting to look sharper although it will be a worry that he’s only completed two of the five top division tournaments he’s entered since returning from suspension. Turning 30 before the basho, there’s a real danger he lost his best years and he’ll be desperate to get himself back among the honours. I wouldn’t be surprised if he notches another special prize here and he also seems like a good candidate to beat the Yokozuna early in the basho, but I don’t fancy him for the yusho. Prediction: 10-5.

M2E Atamifuji (6-9): Three straight 11 win tournaments were always going to be tough to follow up, especially for someone making such a big jump forward having never previously competed higher than M8. A 6 win performance really isn’t all that bad. I think he’ll go one better this time as he acclimates. Prediction: 7-8.

M2W Meisei (9-6): It feels like he’s been established at this level for a while now, and his true talent level is much higher than where he fought the previous basho. I like his style of sumo a lot, I think the danger when looking at where he can go from here is that he has been passed along the way by a handful of top talents. He’s another one whose career, to me, reads Myogiryu: similar style of sumo, will probably bother the san’yaku ranks on occasion until he gets into his mid 30s. I’ll back him for a narrow KK here. Prediction: 8-7.

M3E Oho (10-5): He’s just so inconsistent. At first we thought maybe he’ll be a rival for Hoshoryu as they came up together, then maybe Kotonowaka as he was coming up. When I originally wrote this I thought it looked like maybe Hokuseiho would the guy who settles in for a long career of bouts against him in the rank and file, so he’ll have to find another rival again. Oho reached the top division early enough that he should easily qualify for an elder share and in 15 years we may all be talking about how exciting it is that he’s reviving his grandfather’s stable. But I wouldn’t want to be him in the joi right now. None of his previous trips above M10 ended with winning records and he never even faced san’yaku guys in those tournaments. He won’t be able to avoid it this time, and if he outperforms this score by any number of wins it’ll be a real credit to him. Prediction: 3-12.

M3W Takanosho (10-5): He turns 30 later this year, but he’s still good enough on his day that it’s staggering to think he’s been in the lower half of the rank and file for much of the last 18 months. One big issue is his inconsistency, which has long been a factor, and even more so after the 2022 injury that knocked him out of the joi after a decent run in the division’s upper reaches. His game planning also seems to be a bit faulty, as evidenced by the bout against Hoshoryu in the last basho where his tachiai gift wrapped the Ozeki one of his signature throws. He does “his brand of sumo” to a fault, even when he won’t beat a better opponent strength to strength. He probably also suffers from having his main training partner in the stable unavailable for long stretches of time due to the Ozeki’s own injury woes. Saying all of that, I think Takanosho will more or less get the job done – but it could go horribly wrong. Prediction: An 8-7 that could just as easily be a 4-11.

M4E Tobizaru (7-8): The worst thing for Tobizaru is probably that he’s not got a demotion here. Don’t get me wrong, he’s definitely shown he’s capable of producing the goods at this level, but I just think the upper tiers of the division are healthier now than they were when he was taking scalps from a listless Ichinojo and Mitakeumi in san’yaku back in 2022. Since he first reached the joi he’s been remarkably consistent, but I think he’s due a clanger and it’s coming this time. Prediction: 5-10.

M4W Hiradoumi (8-7): He’s still only 23 and finding his way. I really like his style of sumo, it’s classic Sakaigawa-beya sumo, fast tachiai, in and under the opponent’s arms. We’ve seen it from Goeido and Myogiryu and Sadanoumi and now Hiradoumi. At his age, I think he can probably shoot to replicate Myogiryu’s career. He might just about hold serve this time as long as he doesn’t crumble if and when he drops bouts against the top, top opponents. Prediction: 7-8.

M5E Midorifuji (5-10): The question mark here is over how many matches he gets sucked into against the big guns. He’s shown he can beat absolutely anyone on his day, and he’s not a one trick pony although everyone does know his signature move. He’s started poorly in four of the last five tournaments, and when you’re in the top half it’s hard to see past that. Prediction: 6-9.

M5W Onosato (11-4): It was as good of a debut basho as he reasonably could have hoped for last time, in yusho contention but for his run-ins with the big dogs in week two when his inexperience showed. To be totally honest, I don’t think he’s looked absolutely amazing in any of his basho so far, but he has continued to get better. Haters seem to think he’s the next Ichinojo, dreamers think he’s the next dai-Yokozuna. The truth is probably somewhere in between. Prediction: 10-5.

M6E Tsurugisho (9-6): Whatever you say about him, you can’t deny he’s a fighter. With maybe one good leg, the big man has shown a variety of skills to overcome his physical limitations and get the job done. Remember: this isn’t survival of the fittest, it’s survival of the fit enough. That all being said, he’s gone north of M10 twice in his career and has 20 losses to show for it, and I think that will be at least 30 after this basho at his new career high rank. Prediction: 5-10.

M6W Gonoyama (5-10): By his standards you’d say it was an awful tournament in January, but the truth is that he’d been slowing down with each tournament and clearly it has been a challenge to adjust to life in the joi. I think he’s very, very good and could be a star but it might take another year or so until he’s in his prime. He’s 3 for 3 on kachi-koshi in his hometown basho and I think he’ll do it again, just. Prediction: 8-7.

M7E Kinbozan (7-8): The last ten months haven’t been especially kind to the Kazakhstani, with most of his wins coming against those ranked lower than him. He should be able to mostly avoid the big hitters this time out. There’s something just a bit awkward about his sumo right now, he hasn’t been a great watch. Prediction: 8-7.

M7W Tamawashi (8-7): The iron man just continues to do what he does. It’s been a couple years since that magical 2022 where he notched a flurry of kinboshi and a yusho. I still don’t think the Yokozuna will be keen to see the 39 year old again soon, but I think that won’t happen for a while yet unless he puts on another yusho challenge from the lower reaches of the division this year. It’s been almost six years since he put together three consecutive winning tournaments, and I bet that stretch will continue, if only just. Prediction: 7-8.

M8E Onosho (10-5): Here’s a guy who can have an absolutely tragic score and still look pretty good, or put up double digit wins without looking like he got out of first gear. Apart from Kotoshoho, it was only the absolute top guys who put dirt on him last time (including a hilariously naive loss to the Yokozuna). It’s very rare for him to notch back to back kachi-koshi but I probably have too much faith. Prediction: 9-6.

M8W Takayasu (2-4-9): By and large, he starts pretty well in tournaments and then the wheels come off in the second week, either due to stamina and injury or the increase in competition. I’d back him for a decent tournament if he’s good enough to get through 15 days. He’s 34 but he’s still good enough for this level. Prediction: 10-5.

M9E Hokutofuji (4-5-6): Like Takayasu, he’s one where if he’s fit, he’s just too good for the lower half of the division, even as he’s now almost 32. There’s a little more competition for places now though, so I do question whether he can properly assert himself now that makuuchi is slightly healthier than it has been the last few years. Prediction: 9-6.

M9W Kotoshoho (9-6): He’s still fairly young at 24 but needless to say, things have not worked out quite the way we envisioned when he rocketed to the top of the division after his debut. It’s possible he went too fast too soon as – fitness aside – he never really seems to have recovered in terms of form since that brutal 2-13 three years ago. He’s got some super training partners in the heya and his brother is on the way, but it’s hard for me to buy the upside right now. Prediction: 8-7.

M10E Shodai (4-11): Only Shodai could simultaneously grab a kinboshi off the champion and also put in a performance so bad that he’s at one of the three lowest ranks of his entire top division career. He can’t be happy to be at this level, but the last 18 months have been tragic and he’ll do well to stop the rot. I think he will, temporarily. He’s never had a make-koshi when ranked below Maegashira 5 so it would be absolutely shocking for him not to turn things around in Osaka. Prediction: 9-6.

M10W Mitakeumi (6-9): Two former Ozeki at Maegashira 10. Some days he still has it, but when he hasn’t got it, he looks really awful. There is no “if he gets healthy,” stage of his career to follow: this is about how he manages his injuries on the decline. He’s put up two winning tournaments in the past two years, but I do think he’ll get a third here. Prediction: 9-6.

M11E Ichiyamamoto (5-10): In one sense it’s mission complete as we finally saw the space-time continuum ripped apart by his match against Abi. He’s never had a kachi-koshi above M14 in his thirteen top division tournaments and I don’t think he gets one in the fourteenth. Prediction: 6-9.

M11W Sadanoumi (6-9): Somehow, this is his 51st basho in the top division and so he only needs to hang on for another year and a half to qualify to open his own heya. Whether he has the backing for that is another question, but it has been a remarkable late career resurgence from a guy who spent most of his career in the lower reaches of the division. Of course, much of that run across 2022 and early 2023 is probably also attributable to the drop in quality in the division in that period, but you can only beat what’s in front of you. He’ll be 37 when Natsu approaches but he can still do a job here if – and it’s a big if – he manages his fitness. Prediction: 8-7.

M12E Shonannoumi (4-11): He took an absolute beating in Tokyo and a lot of the losses were racked up against lower ranking opponents. That’s three make-koshi in four top division basho and I think he’s going to get another one. Prediction: 7-8.

M12W Shimazuumi (9-6) – The story of his career has mostly been solid, steady, slow progress, and he looked impressive enough in his debut basho. The competition this time out might be a bit too steep. Prediction: 6-9.

M13E Ryuden (3-12): He’s been all over the place in terms of his top division performances since his return from bad boy status. He’s just so inconsistent, and when he gets on a bad run you ask when it’s ever going to end. Equally, when he’s on, he’s one of the most tenacious fighters you’ll see in sumo. But I think he’s lost a bit of that spark. I think he’s in a Darwin match on Day 15: it could go either way but I’m calling tails. Prediction: 7-8.

M13W Churanoumi (7-8): He looked fairly assured in the first weeks of his two top division basho, but faded a bit in the second week of both. He had a good 2023, but based on what I’d seen of him in Juryo it’s hard to be totally convinced. He could be in trouble. Prediction: 5-10.

M14E Nishikifuji (10-5 at J2): He made a promising enough start to his top division career but then the wheels absolutely fell off. He stopped the rot in a Juryo division he clearly doesn’t want any part of. I don’t think he gets a kachi-koshi, but I do think he’ll get a result that keeps him up for another go. Prediction: 7-8.

M14W Kitanowaka (10-5 at J3): He certainly has his fans as I saw in person at Kokugikan in January, although I also see a guy who is very talented but hasn’t quite been able to put it all together. He could well reach san’yaku before his boss Hakkaku retires in a few years, but I think it’s a gradual process. His most common score in Juryo was 8-7 and that feels about right here. In any case, I think he’ll stay up. Prediction: 8-7.

M15E Myogiryu (5-10): He had a dip to Juryo a few years ago, but by and large, anytime he’s really been in danger he’s been able to pull out a positive result to sustain him for 6 more months, until he needs another one. Always a fan favourite and even more so in front of his “home” crowd, the man from Hyogo-ken actually hasn’t had a winning record in Osaka in 8 years. I’d back him to snap that streak here, maybe even on senshuraku. Prediction: 8-7.

M15W Roga (9-6 at J3): Marginal gains is a buzzword in sport these days and that seems to be the order of the day for Roga, whose rise has been steady if unspectacular since those in the biz were tipping him for big things five years ago. He still has great potential, but since his first promotion to Makushita, he has a 14-21 record in the matches after he attains kachi-koshi. That’s approaching a meaningful sample size that, to these eyes, shows a real lack of killer instinct and raises a question mark over whether he could ever win a yusho at any level. I think it’s a coin flip here as to whether he gets the wins he needs to stay up. Prediction: 7-8.

M16E Endo (5-10): No one will be cheering louder for him than the friendly Tenkaiho, whose seat in the Kyokai (thought to be on loan from Endo) must be feeling rather warm, as Endo spent the last basho dancing around the trap door. A veteran of precisely four basho outside the top division in his entire career, it seems potentially unlikely that the 33 year old would want to mess around outside of the big stage (especially as he’s already met the requirements to open his own stable some day). He did just about enough to keep himself up last time, but two consecutive double-digit make-koshi has him in a dangerous spot and his sumo has looked at times listless. I don’t think this is going to be a comfortable ride but I think he’ll do enough. Prediction: 8-7.

M16W Daiamami (8-7 at J1): He’s spent 11 tournaments in the top division, posted losing records in 8 of them and double digit losses or the equivalent in 5 of those. The eye test both recently and over the longer term doesn’t convince me either. If I’m going to bet on these other guys to stay up, someone needs to go back down. Prediction: 4-11.

M17E Takerufuji (13-2 Yusho at J10): He’s been more or less dominant to this point with a career record of 56-8. This is going to be the biggest one-basho leap – in terms of opponent quality – of his career to-date. This might be some bias based on the Isegahama-beya track record, but he hasn’t been overawed or overmatched at any level yet and I’m going to tip him for a sansho. Prediction: 10-5.

Natsu Day 15 Highlights

Bruce H Abi (阿炎), Aki Basho 2022, Aoiyama, Asanoyama (朝乃山), Chiyoshoma, Daieisho (大栄翔), Daishoho, Endo (遠藤), Hiradoumi (平戸海), Hokuseiho (北青鵬), Hokutōfuji (北勝富士), Hoshoryu, Ichiyamamoto (一山本), Kinbozan (金峰山), Kiribayama (霧馬山), Kotoeko, Kotonowaka, Kotoshoho, Meisei, Midorifuji, Mitakeumi(御嶽海), Mitoryu (水戸龍), Myogiryu (妙義龍), Nishikifuji (錦富士), Nishikigi, Oho (王鵬), Ryuden (竜電), Sadanoumi (佐田の海), Shōdai (正代直也), Takakeishō (貴景勝), Takanosho, Takarafuji (宝富士), Takayasu (高安), Tamawashi (玉鷲), Terunofuji (照ノ富士), Tobizaru, Ura (宇良), Wakamotoharu (若元春), Ōnoshō (阿武咲)

With everything but 2 Darwin matches decided, it was a nice step down in intensity from the prior 14 days of action. What a great tournament! An odd fact, the winning score for both Makuuchi and Juryo was 14-1, that’s some power! Speaking of the Juryo yusho, it features a playoff between Gonoyama and Ochiai that was a scorcher.

Even though he lost his day 15 match, we expect the formalities around Kiribayama’s promotion to Ozeki to start in the coming week. We encourage sumo fans to keep an eye on that process, as it has been a while since we minted an Ozeki (Mitakeumi was the last one, in January of 2022).

Congratulations to Yokozuna Terunofuji on your 8th yusho. Coming back from serious injury and corrective surgery, this was a big hill to climb, and you made it happen. Nothing but acres of respect for your dedication to the sport and your competitive spirit.

Highlight Matches

Mitoryu defeats Tohakuryu – Sort of a ridiculous match to me, Tohakuryu really could not do much of anything to Mitoryu, who chucked him aside to win by hatakikomi. Mitoryu gets a final win before boarding the barge for Juryo.

Asanoyama defeats Tsurugisho – I have read some fans on social media citing that Asanoyama, getting a final score of 12-3 and being in the yusho race did not get a special prize. I would say “get used to it”. He’s a former Ozeki who got punished, and they are not going to go easy on this guy – ever. It will either make him wilt away, or make him incredibly tough. I can’t wait to find out which one. When the two lockup at the tachiai, the difference in sumo posture is quite shocking. As soon as Asanoyama can land that left hand on Tsurugisho’s mawashi, he is done. One last win for Asanoyama and he is 12-3, and headed much higher in the ranks.

Kagayaki defeats Hokuseiho – Kagayaki gets one final win, and if that somehow translates into him staying in the top division, I am going to lose all hope. Hokuseiho faded out in week 2, losing 5 in a row. Sure, he was a lower rank and file guy fighting the san’yaku, but he should have been able to rally today to get rid of the last man on the banzuke. How did Kagayaki defeat the “immobile” Hokuseiho? Hokuseiho’s foot placement was about an good as mine would be, maybe he just did not feel like putting in too much effort as he already had his 8th win.

Takarafuji defeats Ichiyamamoto – Takarafuji wins one more. You can see Ichiyamamoto trying to get his sumo going, but he just falls apart. Takarafuji grabs his head and flings him to the clay, finishing 5-10.

Kotoeko defeats Ryuden – I continue to admire Kotoeko. He needs one more win for kachi-koshi, and he’s all forward power and sharp offense today. He manages to yorkikiri Ryuden into the second row of the zabuton section to secure his 8th win and finish Natsu kachi-koshi.

Hiradoumi defeats Chiyoshoma – I think Chiyoshoma was surprised to find Hiradoumi inside with a morozashi by the second step. Chiyoshoma attempted an escape, but Hiradoumi deployed a leg trip and brought him down, finishing Natsu at 9-6.

Takanosho defeats Myogiryu – Myogiryu had the stronger offense today, and I am not sure why he decided his path to victory was trying to pull Takanosho down. Such a move is always a gamble, because the rikishi initiating the pull releases forward pressure. Takanosho new exactly what to do, and ran Myogiryu by oshitaoshi, finishing Natsu 7-8.

Aoiyama defeats Hokutofuji – Aoiyama gets a fortunate hand placement, and immediately employs the katasukashi to bring down Hokutofuji just as Hokutofuji is charging forward to push Aoiyama out. The final win brings Aoiyama’s score for May to 5-10.

Daishoho defeats Kinbozan – That was too slow to be considered denshamichi, but Daishoho marched Kinbozan directly back and out for a quick yorikiri. Hopefully Kinbozan can recover for July. Daishoho ends the tournament 6-9.

Nishikigi defeats Onosho – Nishikigi goes for the battle hug at the tachiai, Onosho succeeds in blocking him, but shows poor foot placement when executing an ill advised pulling attempt. Nishikigi knows just what to do, and runs Onosho down to win by yoritaoshi, finishing 9-6. Eight (8!) consecutive wins for Nishikigi to conclude Natsu. What happened to this guy?

Sadanoumi defeats Nishikifuji – Nishikifuji has no effective offense and is quickly removed from the ring by Sadanoumi’s oshidashi. He completes his 15 days with just 3 wins; a final score of 3-12.

Tobizaru defeats Tamawashi – Excellent evasive sumo from Tobizaru. I note that he was able to keep his thrusting attack mostly center mass the whole time he was dodging just about everything that Tamawashi was trying to employ. Each time Tamawashi went for a thrust, or to grab Tobizaru for a pull, he was no longer where Tamawashi was aiming. Our first Darwin match ends with Tobizaru kachi-koshi at 8-7, Tamawashi make-koshi at 7-8.

Takayasu defeats Kotoshoho – The battle of the kyujo features Takayasu attacking then releasing forward pressure as Kotoshoho falls forward. A hikiotoshi win, and Takayasu finishes Natsu 3-12.

Oho defeats Midorifuji – I counted twice that Midorifuji was on the cusp of winning this one, just to have Oho battle back. Oho is then able to grapple Midorifuji, and eventually Midorifuji works himself into a jam by trying to get lower and lower to get under Oho to attack. When he’s too low to recover, Oho brings him to the clay with a hikiotoshi. 11-4 final score for Oho, including an amazing 7 consecutive wins in the final week.

Abi defeats Ura – These two were both expecting some manner of complexity in the tachiai, and there was non. As a result, Ura was low and worked lower as he tried to counter Abi’s thrusting attack. The challenge with this kind of position for Ura is that it’s tough to keep your balance, and Abi was able to catch him out of step, and push him out of the ring. The final Darwin match ends with Abi kachi-koshi at 8-7, Ura make-koshi at 7-8.

Mitakeumi defeats Shodai – Excellent focus from Mitakeumi, he ensures all power is headed to center mass. Shodai has no answer, and is first stood up, then pushed out in this battle of the former Ozeki. Mitakeumi with a final win at 9-6.

Kotonowaka defeats Meisei – Ah, Meisei. He was one part of the lead for the yusho race, then 6 consecutive losses took him to a 8-7 kachi-koshi. Good enough if you ask me. Meisei did seem to melt under Kotonowaka’s attack, and maybe those losses for Meisei are thanks to some injury. Kotonowaka finishes Natsu 8-7. Meisei does end up with the Shukun-sho (Outstanding Performance Award).

Daieisho defeats Wakamotoharu – Daieisho shows that standing between him and his 10th win is not a safe place to be. This may be the first time this basho we see him really uncork the intensity of sumo that won him a yusho in January of 2021. Wakamotoharu is lucky if he still has all of his dental work, as Daieisho finishes 10-5. Wakamotoharu is awarded the Gino-sho (Technique Prize).

Hoshoryu defeats Kiribayama – Future Ozeki Kiribayama gets captured, passivated and tossed like a salad by Kiribayama in his last match of the tournament. That was some over the top intensity from Hoshoryu, and he needs that every day. Both end with respectable 11-4 records, and Kiribayama ends with the Gino-sho (Technique Prize). Anyone else notice that all of the special prize winners lost their matches today?

Terunofuji defeats Takakeisho – I have no clue what Takakeisho was trying to do here, but the whole match was a disorganized mess. He had a double inside “grip” on Terunofuji for a moment, then went mad trying to pull the Yokozuna. It’s ok, he cleared kadoban, and he’s going to be back in July. Terunofuji’s final score is 14-1.

Thank you, dear readers, for following along for the last 15 days. Team Tachiai has enjoyed bring you are coverage of the 2023 Natsu basho, and we hope you will follow along as we wait for the formalities of Kiribayama’s promotion to Ozeki. This concludes are daily coverage of the May tournament. Thanks for sharing our love of sumo!

Natsu Day 15 Preview

Bruce H Abi (阿炎), Aki Basho 2022, Aoiyama, Asanoyama (朝乃山), Chiyoshoma, Daieisho (大栄翔), Daishoho, Endo (遠藤), Hiradoumi (平戸海), Hokuseiho (北青鵬), Hokutōfuji (北勝富士), Hoshoryu, Ichiyamamoto (一山本), Kinbozan (金峰山), Kiribayama (霧馬山), Kotoeko, Kotonowaka, Kotoshoho, Meisei, Midorifuji, Mitakeumi(御嶽海), Mitoryu (水戸龍), Myogiryu (妙義龍), Nishikifuji (錦富士), Nishikigi, Oho (王鵬), Ryuden (竜電), Sadanoumi (佐田の海), Shōdai (正代直也), Takakeishō (貴景勝), Takanosho, Takarafuji (宝富士), Takayasu (高安), Tamawashi (玉鷲), Terunofuji (照ノ富士), Tobizaru, Ura (宇良), Wakamotoharu (若元春), Ōnoshō (阿武咲)

The final day of Natsu 2023, a glorious senshuraku is in store. Most of the story lines have been resolved or we at least understand them.

  • The yusho goes to Terunofuji with at least a 13-2 score. This is his 8th yusho, putting him one behind Harumafuji.
  • Kiribayama should be promoted to Ozeki. He has 33 wins over the last 3 basho, including a yusho, a jun-yusho, and probably another jun-yusho today. There is no doubt he is second on the dohyo only to Terunofuji right now.
  • Takakeisho remains Ozeki. He cleared kadoban by hook or by crook, but he has his 8 wins.
  • The san’yaku has not looked better in recent memory, very reminiscent of the era just before we had 6 Ozeki. This really means the sport is about to be very interesting.
  • Hokuseiho is going to be a big deal, but he’s still in a mostly larval form, and needs a fair number of upgrades. With Miyagino oyakata, he is in excellent hands.
  • Former Ozeki Asanoyama is not quite back to Ozeki power levels, but we can expect that later this year. He still needs to work on finding a way to beat Terunofuji.

All in all, a fantastic basho. There are only six rikishi left to decide their status as make-koshi or kachi-koshi, and to help us get there we have a couple of nice Darwin matches today.

What We Are Watching Day 15

Mitoryu (4-10) vs Tohakuryu (4-10) – A battle of 4-10 rikishi to see who can get a 5th win. Tohakuryu is visiting from Juryo, where he has struggled all month. Mitoryu is likewise Juryo bound for July, and this match be to help determine rank on the July banzuke. Mitoryu has won all 6 prior matches.

Asanoyama (11-3) vs Tsurugisho (9-5) – Asanoyama had to fight someone on the final day, may as well be Tsurugisho. A Tsurugisho win would be double digits for him, but frankly right now Asanoyama is fighting better. They have split their prior two matches, both of which occurred six years ago in 2017.

Hokuseiho (8-6) vs Kagayaki (6-8) – How lovely of Hokuseiho to give Kagayaki a nice send off as he makes his way back to Juryo. I have been a Kagayaki booster in the past, mostly because he at one point had solid sumo fundamentals and simple but effective moves. I can’t wait to see what he tries against Hokuseiho.

Ichiyamamoto (4-10) vs Takarafuji (4-10) – Another battle of the miserable 4-10 rikishi. Both are fighting well below their abilities probably due to injury. I think that Takarafuji is currently in poorer condition between the two, so I think its likely Ichiyamamoto will prevail and advance to 5-10.

Ryuden (5-9) vs Kotoeko (7-7) – Kotoeko was eligible for a Darwin match, but instead will face Ryuden, who is already make-koshi. They are fairly even in their 11 match career record at 6-5.

Chiyoshoma (8-6) vs Hiradoumi (8-6) – Both kachi-koshi at matching 8-6 scores, with two prior matches split 1-1. I like Hiradoumi in this match because he has fought better against higher ranked people this past week. Does anything think Chiyoshoma will finish with a henka?

Myogiryu (9-5) vs Takanosho (6-8) – Takanosho would like a final win to finish 7-8, but he won’t have an easy time of it given whatever has been limiting his sumo this month, and the fact that Myogiryu has been fighting pretty well. I expect this to be Myogiryu’s match.

Hokutofuji (6-8) vs Aoiyama (4-10) – This match was likely drawn up to give Hokutofuji a final win to end 7-8. But then again Big Dan Aoiyama needs to fight someone unless he goes kyujo.

Kinbozan (4-10) vs Daishoho (5-9) – Daishoho has won 3 of their 4 prior matches, and is slightly less dreadful at 5-9 to start the day. I am certain that Kinbozan is going to be a big deal in a year or two, but as long as he is going to swallow his first make-koshi of his professional career, he may as well make it a big one.

Onosho (8-6) vs Nishikigi (8-6) – The match you didn’t know you wanted to see, but could be quite the battle. Nishikigi has racked 7 (SEVEN!) straight wins, not sure how he did that, but please keep doing it through Nagoya. If he can grapple Onosho today, he’s liable to make it 8 straight wins to finish Natsu.

Sadanoumi (6-8) vs Nishikifuji (3-11) – Both are already make-koshi, this final match is to help figure out where everyone goes on the banzuke. I would say Sadanoumi his heavily favored given how poorly Nishikifuji has been fighting this month.

Tobizaru (7-7) vs Tamawashi (7-7) – The first of our Darwin matches. Tamawashi is at best maybe 80% of his expected sumo power, and he tends to struggle fighting the highly mobile Tobizaru. If Tobizaru can ensure that he keeps to a hit and move pattern, he should be able to avoid any big attacks from Tamawashi, which is where he wins his matches. Winner kachi-koshi, the loser make-koshi.

Takayasu (2-3-9) vs Kotoshoho (2-9-3) – Great idea! Battle of the kyujo warriors. Both withdrew from the competition and then came back to try and pad their fall. Both of them have 2-12 scores to start the day, and one of them will get a final win. It’s kind of like a Darwin match, only much uglier.

Oho (10-4) vs Midorifuji (6-8) – What on earth is Oho doing up here. Ok, fine. He’s got a double digit winning record, and his sumo looks terrible but wins matches. Go ahead and fight Midorifuji. We have yet to see him deliver a katasukashi this basho.

Abi (7-7) vs Ura (7-7) – The last of our Darwin matches, and this is a pairing of the high mobility rikishi. Abi has a 4-2 career lead as he is good at keeping Ura from employing his grab-and-tug attack combos. If Ura can get a grip on one of Abi’s arms, I am guessing Ura will give him enough air time to reach Hanada. Winner kachi-koshi, the loser make-koshi.

Shodai (6-8) vs Mitakeumi (8-6) – An astounding 31 match career record, with advantage to Mitakeumi by 17-14. Shodai is already make-koshi, and Mitakeumi is already kachi-koshi, so this one is just for the final score. I would guess that it comes down to which of these hit-or-miss guys is in the groove today.

Kotonowaka (7-7) vs Meisei (8-6) – Kotonowaka came into day 15 with a Darwin eligible 7-7 score, but he gets to fight Meisei instead of another 7-7. Meisei is already kachi-koshi, so he does not have a huge motivation to ramp up the sumo power to beat Kotonowaka, add to that the fact that Meisei has lost the last 5 in a row. Kind of looks like a “gimmie” for Kotonowaka to hold rank.

Daieisho (9-5) vs Wakamotoharu (10-4) – Oh, this is such a stroke of scheduling genius. Clash of sumo styles in oshi vs yotsu, the oshi-zumo man needs one more win to keep his push toward Ozeki alive. The yotsu man is already double digits, but needs that last win to set up his Ozeki bid in July. This one could be crazy!

Kiribayama (11-3) vs Hoshoryu (10-4) – The soon to be Ozeki will face the guy he left in the dust. A final chance this month for Hoshoryu to possibly channel any frustration he may have into useful sumo. Hoshoryu was torpedoed already in any hopes he had for Ozeki by the fact that 2 of his wins were by default thanks to an opponent going kyujo. He could use the win to push his score to 11 in hopes of racking 12 wins in July.

Terunofuji (13-1) vs Takakeisho (8-6) – The final match on the final day between the two highest ranked rikishi. It’s traditional, and I think we are going to see Terunofuji do a bit of tadpole bowling. Given Takakeisho’s general spheroid shape, the Yokozuna should be able to get him rolling quite far down the hanamichi.

Natsu Day 14 Highlights

Bruce H Abi (阿炎), Aki Basho 2022, Aoiyama, Asanoyama (朝乃山), Chiyoshoma, Daieisho (大栄翔), Daishoho, Endo (遠藤), Hiradoumi (平戸海), Hokuseiho (北青鵬), Hokutōfuji (北勝富士), Hoshoryu, Ichiyamamoto (一山本), Kinbozan (金峰山), Kiribayama (霧馬山), Kotoeko, Kotonowaka, Kotoshoho, Meisei, Midorifuji, Mitakeumi(御嶽海), Mitoryu (水戸龍), Myogiryu (妙義龍), Nishikifuji (錦富士), Nishikigi, Oho (王鵬), Ryuden (竜電), Sadanoumi (佐田の海), Shōdai (正代直也), Takakeishō (貴景勝), Takanosho, Takarafuji (宝富士), Takayasu (高安), Tamawashi (玉鷲), Terunofuji (照ノ富士), Tobizaru, Ura (宇良), Wakamotoharu (若元春), Ōnoshō (阿武咲)

What an awesome day of sumo in Tokyo. The brawl to end it all did not disappoint, as we got to see Kiribayama try out his Ozeki grade sumo to see if he could best Terunofuji for the first time in 10 tries. He could not, and Terunofuji takes his 8th yusho in blazing form. Congratulations to the top man in the sport, it’s been a while since we have seen that kind of sumo.

Before the final match of the day decided the cup, we had 4 new kachi-koshi, congratulations to Nishikigi, Onosho, Hiradoumi (finally!), and Chiyoshoma. Really solid sumo, and well earned.

To set up tomorrow, Natsu heads into the final day with 6 rikishi having 7-7 scores. They are eligible for single elimination “Darwin” matches tomorrow. We could have had as many as 3 Darwin matches, but we will only get 2. Tobizaru will face Tamawashi, and Abi will face Ura.

Highlight Matches

Kagayaki defeats Oshoma – Now that he is make-koshi, Kagayaki seems to have remembered some of his sumo. If they find a way to keep him in the top division, I am going to probably be grumpy about it. Kagayaki takes the match by tsukidashi, brought on by solid inside lane thrusting that Oshoma could not counter, improving to 6-8.

Oho defeats Hokuseiho – Oho has the crummiest sumo of anyone I have ever seen score double digits. He’s sort of the inverse of Hokutofuji, who looks great but loses. Shodai used to do stuff like this too. It seems that Hokuseiho has two offensive routes he wants to use, both of which are figured out, and at least a dozen places where he’s weak, mostly around entangling those long legs. Oho fells him like a Scot’s Pine, and is double digits at 10-4.

Chiyoshoma defeats Ryuden – Chiyoshoma sets up an immediate left hand inside grip, and does a great job of constantly shifting Ryuden’s center of balance, wearing him down and aggravating any problems he is having with his chronic hip injury. At one point Ryuden tries to position for a throw, but ends up losing his balance, opening his stance and losing the match to a yorikiri. Chiyoshoma advances to 8-6 and is kachi-koshi.

Onosho defeats Daishoho – Onosho employs the classic way of “stand him up, slap him down” to take the match on the second volley. That’s 8 wins for him and he is kachi-koshi at 8-6.

Hiradoumi defeats Kotoeko – It took him five tries to get that 8th win, but I am happy to announce that Hiradoumi is finally kachi-koshi. At no point did Kotoeko present a credible offense, and I don’t think Hiradoumi was in any mood to allow him an opening.

Sadanoumi defeats Aoiyama – Big Dan Aoiyama now has double digit losses for Natsu. I don’t think he’s at risk for boarding the barge to Juryo, but he has lost all defensive power for now. He will be 37 by the time Nagoya starts, and I have to wonder if he’s starting to figure that his body has had enough. Sadanoumi dominated him today, setting up a hold by the second step and running him out by yorikiri. Sadanoumi now 6-8.

Takanosho defeats Ichiyamamoto – Joining Aoiyama in the ranks of the double digit losses is Ichiyamamoto. At Maegashira 15, he may end up as the captain of the Juryo barge this time. Takanosho kept low, kept his hands in the inside lane and pushed with everything he could muster. Ichiyamamoto has very little defense right now, and was quickly moved out by oshidashi. Takanosho improves to 6-8.

Hokutofuji defeats Mitoryu – With his make-koshi secured, Hokutofuji is free to open up the throttle if he chooses. He makes fast work of Mitoryu, who joins the double digit loss club at the bottom of the banzuke. Hokutofuji with an oshidashi to advance his score to 6-8.

Myogiryu defeats Tamawashi – Myogiryu launched a bit early from the shikiri-sen, but nobody called a matta, and the fight was on. Tamawashi gave it everything he could muster today, but he’s not quite as healthy as Myogiryu this May. Myogiryu had a nice move to deflect Tamawashi away when he was rallying for win. The deflection left Tamawashi with his back to Myogiryu, and the resulting combo sent Tamawashi to the clay. Myogiryu now 9-5, Tamawashi now 7-7 and is eligible for a Darwin match tomorrow.

Kotoshoho defeats Takarafuji – How banged up is Takarafuji? He lost today to an injured Kotoshoho. There are starting to be some speculation that Takarafuji will retire. If he’s that hurt I can see him doing that, but I will miss his unique brand of sumo. Kotoshoho did a masterful job of tsuppari center-mass to keep Takarafuji on the move, and then out. Kotoshoho improves to 2-12.

Tobizaru defeats Mitakeumi – Tobizaru’s left hand frontal grip looked a bit worrisome, and it seems to get Mitakeumi off his sumo from the tachiai. I think that Tobizaru also decided he was not going to try and win a match by naniyotsu, and went for a morozashi double inside grip instead. A quick yorkiri, and Tobizaru is 7-7, and eligible for a Darwin match tomorrow.

Takayasu defeats Nishikifuji – Blistering attack from Takayasu at the first step. He had Nishikifuji unable to counter, or keep his balance. A quick tour of the ring as Nishikifuji tried to evade, and a tsukidashi for Takayasu’s second win of the basho, he is now 2-12.

Nishikigi defeats Abi – Abi had one double arm attack, and that move to break away from Nishikigi was superb. Abi lost his balance, and Nishikigi dropped him to the clay by oshitaoshi. That’s kachi-koshi for Nishikigi at 8-6, Abi at 7-7 and is Darwin bound.

Midorifuji defeats Kinbozan – If you are going to take your first ever professional career make-koshi, you might as well make it a big one. Kinbozan started strong, and was moving toward a win. But he lost his balance, and Midorifuji finished him with a hikiotoshi. Kinbozan now at 4-10 while Midorifuji improves to 6-8.

Kotonowaka defeats Ura – Ura, quite the match, I love the wrist bender ottsuke you put on Kotonowaka. That looked like absolute hell for him. Kotonowaka was able to eventually free that hand, but Ura had an excellent defensive hold in place. They stalemated until Ura decided to try a pull and slap combo that hit well, but the timing was poor. Kotonowaka went down and Ura stepped out together. There was a monoii, and rather than have a rematch, the judges reversed the goyji’s decision and awarded the win to Kotonowaka. Both end the day 7-7 and are eligible for Darwin matches tomorrow.

Asanoyama defeats Shodai – Straightforward attack at the tachiai by Asanoyama gave him a solid body hold. He drove Shodai to the bales and finished him with a yoritaoshi to pick up his 11th win. He’s not quite back to Ozeki power, but I think this basho has informed him of that, and I would expect he redoubles his training. I do miss the smiles he would beam follow his matches, win or lose, that were the hallmark of his early career. Asanoyama now 11-3 while Shodai is make-koshi at 6-8.

Daieisho defeats Meisei – Daieisho stays on the narrow path to double digits, narrowly avoiding a mid-match step out and rallying to get Meisei off balance and down by tsukitaoshi. Not normally how Daieisho would like to fight, but it’s a win regardless, he is 9-5.

Hoshoryu defeats Tsurugisho – I am fairly sure that Tsurugisho did not want to give Hoshoryu a double inside grip on the second step. He tried an arm lock on Hoshoryu, but he does not have Terunofuji’s height or strength. Hoshoryu worked to unbalance Tsurugisho, then threw him down by sukuinage to improve to 10-4.

Wakamotoharu defeats Takakeisho – Takakeisho has his 8, I think we should all be glad he got there, and I am pretty sure that both days 14 and 15 are him showing up to make sure his opponent has their fight. With luck he will get treatment or whatever he needs for his knees and can be back strong for July. Takakeisho know he has no forward power today, so takes to trying to slap Wakamotoharu silly with big, round house hits to the face. Wakamotoharu endures them as best he can, focuses center mass and ejects the Ozeki by oshitaoshi, improving to 10-4.

Terunofuji defeats Kiribayama – Kiribayama gave the Yokozuna a solid fight, but one of the great hallmarks of Terunofuji 2.0 is his patience. Granted its been six months since he had a worthy opponent for this kind of sumo, so many forgot. They may have thought “Oh no, the Yokozuna is in trouble!”. Nah, he’s just getting it all together at his own pace. Kiribayama does a marvelous job of blocking Terunofuji’s favorite attack routes, and forces the Yokozuna to go defensive. Absolutely superb lower body defensive sumo from Terunofuji this match, go watch and study that. Coupled with that left arm ottsuke that shut down Kiribayama’s right, he stalemated Kiribayama and shut down the attack. Sumo fans, it’s been some time since I have been able to use the tag “Terunofuji’s angry yorikiri”, but look at that finish. Nodowa and a toss into the camera club. 13-1, and an 8th yusho for Yokozuna Terunofuji. He is awarded a diorama of the Yokosuka sea wall made out of kensho envelopes.