Hello sumo fans! I’m back with another sumo card opening video. This time I have six packs of the brand new 2019 sumo card series, and 2019 may be the best series yet. To get your own sumo cards, or anything else sumo related, head on over to bigSUMOfan.com. The shop’s owner, Robert, is a dedicated sumo fan and is working to make sumo merch more accessible to fans in North America and abroad.
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I started writing these prediction posts exactly a year ago, so this will be my seventh banzuke forecast for Tachiai. The accuracy has varied from basho to basho, though I think it’s fair to say that the forecasts give a very good idea of roughly where each rikishi will land—in most cases, within one rank or closer.
No changes here from the Haru banzuke.
With his 7-8 record, Mitakeumi will lose his Sekiwake rank, but should only fall to Komusubi. Tochinoshin moves over to the East side, while Ichinojo moves up to Sekiwake. Endo finally gets his San’yaku promotion, and is a sufficiently strong candidate with his 9-6 record at M1e that I have him on the East side, although the banzuke committee could certainly switch him and Mitakeumi.
What’s certain is that there will be a lot of turnover in this area of the banzuke, as with the exception of Shohozan, everyone in the M2-M5 ranks checked in with a losing record, and only Shodai limited his losses to 8. Many in the ranks immediately below this group also did not distinguish themselves, meaning that we have to reach far down the banzuke for viable promotion candidates. Exactly how this will play out is much less certain, as there are many possible scenarios, and the considerations going into them are complex.
Let’s start with the easy part. Both Tamawashi and Kaisei did well enough to earn promotions to San’yaku, but since there are no open slots for them, they will have to be content with the top maegashira rank. Abi and Shohozan are the only plausible candidates for M2, although their ordering is uncertain. Abi will jump 5 ranks, and will join the joi in only his third top-division basho after earning 10-5 records in the first two. Similarly, Daieisho is the only plausible candidate for M3e. He will also jump 5 ranks, matching his highest career rank.
From here, things get complicated. The next best numerical score belongs to Shodai, but he can’t take the M3w slot due to his make-koshi record at M4w. The best he could do would be to remain at his current rank, though it’s more likely he gets a minimal demotion to M5e. Kotoshogiku could technically be only demoted from M3e to M3w, but given his 6-9 record, this seems overly generous, and he should really be ranked below Shodai. The next best candidate for M3e is none other than Yutakayama, whose 10-5 record could vault him 8 ranks up the banzuke, all the way from M11.
If we put Shodai and M5e and Kotoshogiku right below him at M5w, who fills the M4 slots? The choice is between the next two strong kachi-koshi records, which belong to Chiyoshoma (9-6 at M10) and Ikioi (11-4 at M14), and the other two high-rankers due for big demotions, Komusubi Chiyotairyu (4-11) and M2 Takarafuji (5-10). My forecast favors the guys moving up the banzuke over those moving down. If the banzuke committee agrees, six out of the ten rikishi in this group would be moving up at least 5 ranks!
At Natsu, this area of the banzuke will serve primarily as the landing zone for higher-ranked rikishi who achieved make-koshi records ranging from just below .500 (Yoshikaze, Kagayaki, Okinoumi, Chiyonokuni) to horrific (hello, Chiyotairyu and Takakeisho). The only bright spots are Ryuden, who moves up from M9 with a minimal kachi-koshi, and the Oitekaze stablemates Daishomaru and Daiamami, who vault up and out of the demotion danger zone with their 9-6 and 10-5 records.
The bottom of the banzuke is complicated by the fact that there are 6 Makuuchi rikishi who earned demotions by the usual criteria (in order from most to least deserving of demotion: Hedenoumi, Kotoyuki, Sokokurai, Onosho/Nishikigi, and Myogiryu), but only 3 Juryo rikishi who clearly earned promotion: Sadanoumi, Takekaze, and Kyokutaisei. Aminishiki is borderline, and the next two best candidates, Kotoeko (10-5 at J8) and Gagamaru (8-7 at J5), are ranked too low to be normally considered for promotion with those records. Obviously, the numbers moving up and down have to match. What to do?
My initial inclination was to demote Nishikigi in favor of Aminishiki, and save Onosho (who was kyujo) and Myogiryu. Over on the sumo forum, Asashosakari suggested that they could instead demote Onosho and save both Nishikigi and Myogiryu. The solution I’m currently favoring, given how poor their records were, is that both Nishikigi and Myogiryu will be demoted, as will Onosho. I’m guessing that the banzuke committee will be more likely to promote kachi-koshi Juryo rikishi with insufficiently strong records (after all, this has happened in the past) than to keep in the top division rikishi who failed to defend their places there. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see this play out in any number of ways. We’ll find out on April 26th!
You might not know it by watching the matches today, but it was the final day of the Haru basho. Across the torikumi, everyone was fighting with some of their best sumo of the tournament. It was one of those days where it will be a good idea to seek out Jason’s All Sumo Channel or Kintamayama on YouTube to see all the bouts, and not just the highlights from NHK.
Aminishiki defeats Myogiryu – It’s kind of magical to me that we may see Uncle Sumo back in the top division yet again for Natsu. This guy should be an inspiration to everyone to stick to their dreams and keep working. Good things happen for those who refuse to give up. The match starts with a henka-matta, so Uncle Sumo needs to re-set and goes for a simple hatakikomi.
Daiamami defeats Yutakayama – Daiamami gets to double digits, but Yutakayama really made him earn it. A close-quarters thrusting match in which both men stayed low and kept applying the pressure. Daiamami closed the deal when he finally got inside on Yutakayama and drove forward.
Chiyonokuni defeats Hidenoumi – Chiyonokuni reminds us that he is a real battle machine with his energetic win over Hidenoumi. He finishes make-koshi, and we have to wonder what it will take for him to get his sumo to the next level.
Chiyoshoma defeats Nishikigi – Chiyoshoma’s leaping henka results in an airborne uwatenage. Go watch it! It’s amazingly acrobatic.
Ryuden defeats Asanoyama – Ryuden secures kachi-koshi on the final day. Asanoyama took him to his chest out of the tachiai, and from there it was a struggle. Multiple times Asanoyama went to throw Ryuden, but Ryuden somehow found a way to block the uwatenage. Great, great sumo from both.
Okinoumi defeats Aoiyama – After a strong start to the basho, Aoiyama faded down the stretch. Part of this may have been from the fact that he started facing much higher ranked rikishi, and some of it may be some unreported injury or just plain exhaustion.
Kagayaki defeats Ishiura – Ishiura tries a straight ahead fight, and can’t find a way to blunt Kagayaki’s forward drive. Ishiura seems to have forgotten some of his sumo from a year or two ago, or maybe his opponents are just much bigger / tougher now.
Abi defeats Daishomaru – A leaping hatakikomi at the edge gives Abi the win after a monoii. Impressive ring sense there! For his second tournament in a row, Abi is able to rack up double digit wins.
Kaisei defeats Ikioi – Sadly Ikioi could not pick up the special prize, but he has nothing to apologize for this basho. Even with a bandaged head, he met Kaisei with vigor and strength. But there is a lot of Kaisei to move, and even for Ikioi, it was a tall order. Ikioi has been progressively more injured each day of the basho, so I hope he goes and heals up.
Daieisho defeats Shodai – Even though he is make-koshi, Shodai seems to have found his sumo. Daieisho knew when to put him off balance and send him across the tawara. I do hope that Shodai can focus on returning in this form for the start of Natsu. He still has massive potential if he can get his sumo under control.
Kotoshogiku defeats Hokutofuji – Both men are deeply make-koshi, but you would never know it from watching their bout. This was one of the better matches of an already awesome day. The two men were chest to chest for most of the match, but neither seemed to be able to employ their favorite sumo attacks for more than a moment. In the end, it was Kotoshogiku who set up his hip-pump attack and ended the match.
Takarafuji defeats Kotoyuki – Is anyone surprised? Kotoyuki ends the the basho with a single win.
Yoshikaze defeats Arawashi – Arawashi needs to go heal. Yoshikaze finishes 7-8.
Tamawashi defeats Chiyomaru – Tamawashi is likely back in San’yaku for May, and will try again to muscle his way to his preferred Sekiwake position. Chiyomaru, meanwhile, is headed for the buffet table.
Shohozan defeats Endo – It takes a powerful tachiai from Shohozan and a couple of quick thrusts to put Endo the Golden back and out. Shohozan is kachi-koshi on the final day, after an alarming cold streak starting on day 6.
Chiyotairyu defeats Tochiozan – This looked like a Tochiozan win, and the gyoji gave the gumbai to Tochiozan, but then the sideburns of Chiyotairyu called out to the spiritual world, and the shimpan rose to their feet in abeyance. The monoii did not so much give the match to Chiyotairyu, but more to his sideburns. What did we learn here? Chiyotairyu must never remove his sideburns again. Whispered legends say that the kami that inhabits them is the same that gave Takamiyama his might, and they will only live in the facial hair of one who is worthy. [What. –PinkMawashi]
Tochinoshin defeats Ichinojo – Two enormously powerful rikishi test each other’s strength. After Ichinojo decided to lift Tochinoshin, he decided he was done playing and dialed his muscles to “Hulk” mode, finishing the boulder. With his 10-5 record, Tochinoshin has started an Ozeki campaign. Protect that knee, sir!
Mitakeumi defeats Goeido – Mitakeumi seems to have given Goeido 1.5.1 a solid match, and dropped the Osaka favorite on his backside in the middle of the ring. His sumo against both Ozeki has been great to watch. Maybe he is on the cusp of elevating his technique after all?
Takayasu defeats Kakuryu – The initial call by the gyoji went to Kakuryu, and it looked like Takayasu may have injured his right leg and maybe even re-damaged his right thigh. But just before they hand Kakuryu the kensho diorama of Osaka-jo, the shimpan decide it’s time to review it. The replays show Kakuryu’s heel touching out, so it’s torinaoshi time, with Takayasu limping. This time, Takayasu centers the Yokozuna and drives forward with his considerable strength. Kakuryu can’t plant his feet to defend, bringing the match and the basho to an exciting end as it’s Takayasu who hoists the kensho fort from the gyoji’s gumbai.
The devastation across the yusho race was amazing on day 10, as all but four men out of nine dropped from contention. Thus ends act 2, and the goal of the torikumi is revealed. The good have been separated from the great, and the yusho race is formed.
Act 3 is to find which of these four rikishi will take home the hardware, and barring any injuries, it’s looking very good for Yokozuna Kakuryu. The goal over the next 5 days is for someone to get dirt on Big K, and right now he is looking very genki given his known injuries.
Daiamami vs Kyokutaisei – Daiamami pushing for kachi-koshi in a very even match all around.
Daishomaru vs Hidenoumi – Another Oitekaze deshi going for kachi-koshi on day 11, they have done exceptionally well this basho, but the next two tournaments will tell if they just had a good basho, or if this is a step-change in their sumo.
Kotoyuki vs Yutakayama – Kotoyuki has yet to win one, so Yutakayama’s kachi-koshi looks pretty safe for today. If he continues to push he could be in range for a special prize.
Aoiyama vs Chiyonokuni – A rough and rowdy match today here, we are going to get speed and tenacity against reach and power. I am going to guess it will be a pretty good match, in spite of Chiyonokuni’s 8-3 career advantage.
Kagayaki vs Ikioi – Ikioi tries for his 8, after an unfortunate hair pulling incident on day 10. Like Kakuryu, Ikioi has persevered in the face of injuries and pain. The home town crowd loves him, and he is gamberizing.
Ryuden vs Yoshikaze – The loser of this match receives a make-koshi, and I fear it’ll be Yoshikaze. This is their first ever match, and it is a sad one to watch.
Shohozan vs Hokutofuji – both men have rallied in the last several days after difficult losing streaks. Shohozan is still a street brawler against the diligent and earnest Hokutofuji. I give the advantage to Shohozan.
Kaisei vs Takakeisho – Fans and readers may wonder what happened to Takakeisho, I can’t cite the news posting, but it seems he pulled his groin muscle on day 8 or 9. So he’s limping to the end of the basho for the most part. It’s his first ever match with Kaisei, who is likely going to keep jun-yusho in his sights.
Endo vs Takarafuji – Endo is still at .500, and needs to get that kachi-koshi for his first ever san’yaku posting. He has faded quite a bit since his opening week sprint. The flagging Takarafuji should be a solid match for him, and has beat Endo in 5 of their last 6 matches.
Mitakeumi vs Chiyomaru – Mitakeumi was fading into the second week, even before he managed to get himself hurt. Now he has to face to bulbous Chiyomaru in their first ever head-to-head meet up.
Shodai vs Goeido – Many people were very unhappy with Goeido’s mighty henka on day 10. I thought it was keeping in character for Goeido, who clearly encountered a bad driver and could not do real sumo today. Shodai has rallied, and is not as pathetic as he appeared in the first week.
Takayasu vs Tochinoshin – The schedule ends strong, with these two powerhouses up in the second-to-last match of the day. Tochinoshin is still smarting for swallowing Goeido’s henka with such vigor. Takayasu sometimes eases up once he gets his kachi-koshi, but I think he wants to keep chasing the Yokozuna.
Kakuryu vs Ichinojo – This is a dangerous match for the lone surviving Yokozuna. First and foremost is that Ichinojo could injure him if they are not both very careful. Secondly, Ichinojo could actually defeat Kakuryu. A loss on day 11 would open the yusho race to a mad scramble, with several worthy contenders suddenly within striking range. Nothing would please the lords of sumo more.