Yusho Race

Today’s results have greatly simplified the chase for the Emperor’s Cup. Yokozuna Terunofuji (12-2) has a one-win lead over the veteran M10 Myogiryu (11-3). Everyone else is out of contention. A win by Terunofuji tomorrow over Ozeki Shodai or a loss by Myogiryu to Sekiwake Meisei would give the Yokozuna his 5th top-division championship. Otherwise, the two will face off in a playoff bout for all the marbles.

San’yaku Exchanges

Three san’yaku slots have been locked down by incumbents. Mitakeumi (8-6) will stay East Sekiwake. Meisei (7-7) needs to beat Myogiryu to extend his maiden appearance at West Sekiwake, but will fall only to Komusubi with a loss. Ichinojo (8-6) will be East Komusubi if Meisei wins, or take over Meisei’s rank if the latter loses.

So only one Komusubi slot will be open. Kiribayama can claim it by beating Chiyomaru; a loss would open the door for Daieisho, Onosho, Takanosho, or Wakatakakage, each of whom would need a victory and losses by those ahead of them on this list.

Juryo-Makuuchi Exchanges

Certain demotions: M16 Tokushoryu and the M15 duo of Ichiyamamoto and Chiyonoo, all 4-10. Certain promotions: Juryo champion J5 Abi (12-2) and J3 Sadanoumi (10-4). The third open promotion slot would go to J1w Akua (8-6) if he wins or if J4e Shohozan (9-5) loses; otherwise, Shohozan jumps ahead of him in the promotion queue. Shohozan probably controls his own destiny, though, as he visits Makuuchi to take on endangered M13w Tsurugisho (5-9) in what sure looks like an “exchange bout.” Also on the bubble and needing a win is M14e Kaisei (5-9), who would be demoted ahead of Tsurugisho if both lost. Kaisei is matched with J2e Daiamami (7-7), in what could also be an exchange bout depending on the outcomes of other matches. It looks like Akua will definitely be back in the top division, because a loss by Shohozan would give Akua the third open slot, while a win by Shohozan would create a fourth.

Juryo-Makushita Exchanges

Three Juryo slots are open: one by Takagenji’s removal and two by the performances of the J13 duo Takakento (3-11) and Asashiyu (the former Murata), who’s looked completely outclassed in his sekitori debut to the tune of a 1-13 record. These three slots will go to Ms1e Terasawa (5-1), Ms2e Hiradoumi (5-2) and Ms2w Kotokuzan (4-3). Ms4e Jokoryu (4-3) is in line for the next available slot, which could open if J12e Kyokushuho (6-8), whom he bested today, picks up his 9th loss. M4w Kotoyusho, 3-3, is probably out of luck even if he prevails against Asashiyu tomorrow.

Yusho Race

Well, maximum chaos failed to materialize, but the race is far from over. Yokozuna Terunofuji (11-2) defeated Sekiwake Mitakeumi to maintain a one-win lead. The ranks of his pursuers have been thinned considerably. Three rank-and-filers—Onosho, Myogiryu, and Endo—trail by a victory, with a fourth—Okinoumi—still mathematically in the race win 9 wins. Everyone else is out of contention.

A win by Terunofuji tomorrow over Ozeki Takakeisho would guarantee him at least a playoff spot if not an outright championship. A loss would open the door to up to a 4-way tie going into Day 15. Onosho, Myogiryu, Endo, and Okinoumi have all been given san’yaku opponents: Meisei, Shodai, Ichinojo and Mitakeumi, respectively. If Terunofuji is in the lead after tomorrow, he should face Shodai on Day 15; otherwise, he’ll likely be matched head-to-head with his highest-ranked 11-win challenger.

San’yaku Exchanges

Mitakeumi has locked down his East Sekiwake slot for his 17th appearance at the rank, which will tie for 8th all-time. Takayasu (4-8-1) will vacate his Komusubi slot. The other two san’yaku slots are still in play: Meisei (6-7) needs to win out to extend his maiden appearance at Sekiwake, but can limit his fall to Komusubi if he goes 1-1. Ichinojo (7-6) needs to go 1-1 or better to stay at Komusubi, and could even move up to Sekiwake if Meisei falters.

Onosho and M1w Takanosho (7-6) are now the leading contenders for the first open san’yaku slot, trailed by Kiribayama, Daieisho, Wakatakakage, Okinoumi, Myogiryu, and Endo.

Juryo-Makuuchi Exchanges

M16w Tokushoryu (3-10) is certain to be demoted. Juryo yusho race leader Abi (11-2) has locked up his long-awaited return to the top division. The M15 duo of Ichiyamamoto and Chiyonoo, both 4-9, now have demotable records, which means that J1w Akua (8-5) and J3w Sadanoumi (9-4) should also be back up in Makuuchi after 2 and 4 basho in Juryo, respectively.

M14e Kaisei (5-8) still needs a win for safety, as does M13w Tsurugisho (5-8). The remaining realistic promotion candidates are J4e veteran Shohozan (8-5) and J9e Nishikifuji (10-3).

Juryo-Makushita Exchanges

Three Juryo slots are open: one by Takagenji’s removal and two by the performances of the J13 duo Takakento (3-10) and Asashiyu (the former Murata), who’s looked completely outclassed in his sekitori debut to the tune of a 1-12 record. Four other second-division men go into the final weekend seeking a win to ensure a return.

Down in Makushita, we have two rikishi guaranteed to make their salaried debuts: Ms1e Terasawa (5-1) and Ms2e Hiradoumi (5-2). Ms2w Kotokuzan (4-2) can bounce right back up to Juryo with a win or a loss by Ms1w Chiyoarashi (3-3); the latter, along with the Ms4 duo Jokoryu and Kotoyusho, both 3-3, must win and hope for favorable outcomes in other bouts.

Yusho Race

Meisei’s upset of Yokozuna Terunofuji (10-2) creates the potential for a lot of drama down the stretch. Could the Aki basho once again live up to the “Wacky Aki” moniker coined in 2017 when Yokozuna Harumafuji, trailing Ozeki Goeido by 3 wins after Day 11, caught him and won the yusho in a playoff, one of only 3 times in the modern era that the top division championship was claimed with only 11 wins?

Terunofuji still controls his own destiny, but should he lose to Mitakeumi tomorrow, all bets are off. Four rikishi, ranked between M6 and M11, are one win behind with 9. An additional four, including the 3 highest-ranked contenders on the banzuke (Shodai, Takakeisho, and Mitakeumi), plus the man at the very bottom of the rankings, M17e Chiyonokuni, are one more win off the pace with 8. The Day 13 matchups are such that we could end up with anything from a 5-way tie for the lead to 8 men trailing the leader by one win going into the final weekend.

San’yaku Exchanges

Mitakeumi has locked down his East Sekiwake slot for his 17th appearance at the rank, which will tie for 8th all-time. Takayasu (4-8) will vacate his Komusubi slot. The other two san’yaku slots are still in play: Meisei (5-7) needs to win out to extend his maiden appearance at Sekiwake, but can limit his fall to Komusubi if he goes 2-1. Ichinojo (6-6) needs to go 2-1 or better to stay at Komusubi, and could even move up to Sekiwake if Meisei falters.

M2 Kiribayama (7-5) and M6 Onosho (9-3) are in a virtual tie for the first open san’yaku slot. A long-ish list of rikishi are still in contention, led by M1w Takanosho (6-6), M4 Daieisho (7-6), and M8 Okinoumi (9-3).

Division Exchanges

M16w Tokushoryu (3-9) is the first man to book his seat on the Juryo barge. The M15 duo of Ichiyamamoto and Chiyonoo, both 4-8, likely need to win out to avoid a drop. M14e Kaisei (4-8) needs at least two wins for safety, and three wouldn’t hurt. M16e Chiyomaru (7-5) is probably safe already, and one more win would make this a certainty, while M13w Tsurugisho (5-7) needs another win to ensure a stay in Makuuchi. I’d put the over-under on the number of open promotion slots at 3.5.

Who are the contenders for these slots? The leaders, with records that are already just good enough, are J1w Akua (8-4) and none other than J5e Abi (10-2), who could reclaim his place in the top division after more than a year away. Other contenders, who still need victories to buttress their case, are former Makuuchi mainstays J3w Sadanoumi and J4e Shohozan, both 8-4, and dark horse yusho race co-leader J9e Nishikifuji, 10-2.

The Japan Sumo Association will dismiss Takagenji and demote his stable master, Tokiwayama-oyakata, as Takagenji has admitted to smoking marijuana about eight times in the past. Whether the actual number is eight, or not, we’re a far sight from the CBD oil and “gummies” mentioned in early reports.

Again, we see a theme here. The initial allegation was met with a denial and then as the truth comes out, the scandal gets a bit worse. While Asanoyama and Ryuden remain in the association, in each case this was their first offense. For Takagenji, as Herouth pointed out, he was also implicated in the bullying scandal that ended his brother’s career. Also, his infraction involved an actual crime.

For those who missed the context of my previous tweet.

The NSK board approved the Compliance Committee's recommendation: Disciplinary dismissal for Takagenji, demotion from iin to toshiyori for Tokiwayama oyakata.

(1/6)https://t.co/gMOD83uUky

— ヘルット (@SumoFollower) July 30, 2021

That fact is probably why workshops and even drug tests are being mentioned as broader impacts on current rikishi. It also makes one wonder whether those tests will be contained to just weed, or if other substances will be included in a testing regimen. Lastly, given the size of the association, I would surmise that testing would follow discrete and specific allegations rather than being broad, like the current association-wide covid testing. But it also makes one wonder if the case of a specific allegation may result in stable-wide testing, or just for the accused. If more details come out, we’ll follow up.

Tokiwayama-oyakata will be demoted from iin to toshiyori. To give context, most of the more recent retirees, like Tochiozan, and Sokokurai are toshiyori. Some exceptions among recent retirees are former-Yokozuna Kakuryu and Takekuma (ex-Goeido). They are toshiyori, but as iin taigu it means they’re treated like iin. Naruto and Musashigawa are iin. Former Takekaze is even higher, as shunin.

The board decided to adopt those recommendation. In addition, the have already warned the rikishi again that drug use is strictly forbidden, and are considering workshops and general drug tests.

(6/6)

— ヘルット (@SumoFollower) July 30, 2021