Terunofuji and Mitakeumi win their Day 14 bouts to go 12-2. Everyone else is eliminated, and the yusho is decided in the final bout between the two.
Terunofuji wins to go to 12-2, dropping Abi to 10-4. Mitakeumi loses, dropping him to 11-3. Mitakeumi can force a playoff by beating Terunofuji on Day 15, and the playoff can be joined by Kotonowaka (10-3) if he wins his final two.
Terunofuji loses to go to 11-3, tying him with Abi. Mitakeumi wins to go to 12-2. Now Terunofuji is the one who would need to win to force a playoff, which can be joined by Abi or Kotonowaka, but probably not both, since I am expecting them to be matched up on Day 15.
Terunofuji and Mitakeumi both lose, making both of them plus Abi, and possibly Kotonowaka, 11-3. If all 4 are indeed tied, and the schedulers pair them up, we’re guaranteed a playoff between the winners. Otherwise, it either an outright yusho or a playoff against one or both maegashira for the winner of Terunofuji vs. Mitakeumi.
The San’yaku
K1e Meisei (5-8) and K1w Daieisho (5-8) are both make-koshi, and should be dropping back into the rank-and-file. S1e Mitakeumi will either stay Sekiwake or move up. S1w Takanosho (6-7) needs one more win to be ranked no lower than Komusubi, and two to hold rank. The two leading promotion contenders are Abi and Wakatakakage (who, as the top-ranked maegashira, should get first dibs if he’s kachi-koshi). Just behind them is Onosho, with Ura, Ichinojo, Hoshoryu, Tamawashi, and Takarafuji all within striking distance with only two days to go!
Juryo
J2e Kotoshoho (10-3) and J1e Kagayaki (8-5) have earned a return to the top division. They’ll be taking the spots vacated by absent Hidenoumi and Kaisei. J4w Kotokuzan (9-4) needs another win to make a top-division debut. The others with promotion chances are Nishikigi, Tohakuryu, and Daiamami.
The most endangered incumbents are Tsurugisho and Ichiyamamoto, who need two wins to stay in Makuuchi. One win should do it for Chiyonokuni, Oho, and Akua, while Tochinoshin and Yutakayama could also use one more as insurance. Everyone else is already safe. Key matchups tomorrow include Oho vs. Akua, with the winner safe from demotion, as well as the crossover bout between Nishikigi and Ichiyamamoto.
I’ve covered the Juryo/Makushita exchange picture elsewhere.
It’s the penultimate day of Hatsu 2022, and as of today we have a 2 way tie for the cup, but it will come down to the final day. Unless something quite out of the ordinary happens, the yusho will go to Terunofuji, Mitakeumi or Abi. Yes, Abi still has a path to the cup, but it’s a long shot.
What We Are Watching Day 14
Nishikigi vs Ichiyamamoto – I would guess a bit of an exchange match. Should Nishikigi win, he’s kachi-koshi and likely to make a bid to return to the top division. Ichiyamamoto will likely end with a record that could drop him to Juryo. So maybe they are having them fight it out. Ichiyamamoto has a 3-0 career lead.
Ishiura vs Kotoeko – Both are already kachi-koshi, so this is to see who can toss whom about with more power. Ishiura has been looking really sharp the last few days, and I am eager to see these two compact powerhouses fight it out. Ishiura holds a 6-3 career advantage.
Aoiyama vs Chiyotairyu – Their make/kachi-koshi have already been decided, so maybe its just a “hey look, 21 match rivalry” kind of event. Both are not quite at full power, so it’s anyone’s guess how this one is going to play out. I would think Aoiyama is a bit less banged up, so maybe he will have an edge.
Sadanoumi vs Yutakayama – Sadanoumi needs one more win for his kachi-koshi. Should he lose today to Yutakayama, it’s 7-7 for him, and he may find himself in one of the very small number of Darwin matches tomorrow. Since the funnel blew to bits on day 12, the schedulers have stopped trying to march folks to 7-7, and my just take whomever shows up.
Oho vs Akua – I feel for Oho, who has lost 3 in a row. But part of being in the top division is the stamina to still fight with a lot of power (maybe even more power) at the end of week 2. If he drops this match to the injured Akua today, he will be 7-7, and my guess he may face a Darwin match on Sunday.
Chiyonokuni vs Terutsuyoshi – Terutsuyoshi is going to try to win his last 2 and see if he can finish kachi-koshi. He’s got the ghost of Chiyonokuni today, who threw away a perfectly good zenpai. I think Kokenoe Oyakata told him that if he finished 0-15, he would have to organize Chiyomaru’s bodily functions.
Wakamotoharu vs Tobizaru – We have Wakamotoharu at 7-6, Tobizaru at 6-7. I know I said the funnel is dead and shattered, but here is a little piece of it still trying to make the Darwin list full. Tobizaru has a 5-0 career advantage over Wakamotoharu, so the likely outcome here is a pair of 7-7 rikishi, ready for battle on day 15.
Tsurugisho vs Chiyoshoma – Both are make-koshi, but this may be to see if Tsurugisho will end up with enough losses to open another slot in the top division. Not that there are that many promotable records from Juryo. Chiyoshoma holds a 4-2 career advantage over Tsurugisho, but the size different is 60kg. I hereby authorize a Chiyoshoma henka for this match.
Okinoumi vs Tochinoshin – A pair of grizzled and injured veterans hobble to the dohyo, organize their remaining appendages, and do battle. Their 18 match history favors Tochinoshin 10-8, and I think another win would help him stay in the top division one more basho. This match is going to be painful and probably slow.
Ura vs Tamawashi – Oh the evil bastards. A mini-Darwin with two favorites. The winner gets kachi-koshi, the loser goes to 7-7 and joins the Darwin group. Tamawashi has lost his last 3 in a row, and I wonder if he is just plain out of gas right now. I would love to see him reach his 8, but Ura is looking really sharp right now.
Endo vs Ichinojo – Will Endo decided that he is already make-koshi and throttle back, or will he decide to channel whatever frustration he may have into the giant flabby thorax of Ichinojo? Now the Boulder has a 10-4 career advantage, but Endo could give a flip about that. When Endo wants to fight, he’s going to bring his sumo and you are going to work hard or get dirty. An Ichinojo win would be kachi-koshi, a loss and he joins the Darwin crew.
Wakatakakage vs Chiyomaru – Well well, second mini-Darwin. Loser goes to 7-7, winner is kachi-koshi. Wakatakakage has won his last 3 in a row, so maybe he’s on a hot streak in the final days of Hatsu. Wakatakakage will try to go chest to chest for something like a yorikiri, and Chiyomaru will try to slap him down.
Hokutofuji vs Kiribayama – Both are 5-8 make-koshi, so this is to see who drops furthest down the March banzuke. I am going to guess that Hokutofuji has the advantage here. He’s due for a win. But both of them have lost their last 2 matches.
Meisei vs Onosho – Why yes, I would like to see Onosho hit double digits this January. He’s at 9-4 now, so he has 2 chances to get there. He may even be up for a special prize if Mitakeumi takes the cup, I would guess.
Myogiryu vs Daieisho – Myogiryu is back! I think he wanted to try and rack up at least 1 more win to try and preserve some traction on the banzuke for March. Currently at 5-8 from Maegashira 10, he’s going to have his hands full with the Komusubi, and Daieisho holds a 10-2 career advantage.
Mitakeumi vs Takarafuji – Takarafuji has a unique opportunity to help his stablemate Terunofuji. We know the Isegahama clan is very tight, and I am certain that Takarafuji is thrilled he has a chance to play a role in getting a contender out of the Yokozuna’s path. If he can put Mitakeumi on the clay, that might leave Terunofuji as the sole leader of the yusho race. So I am going to be looking for Takarafuji to put it all on the line today. Could be one hell of a match.
Kotonowaka vs Takanosho – A staggering 16 rank difference between these two, I don’t quite recall the last time I have seen a spread this huge. Takanosho can “win out” and keep his Sekiwake slot, but he’s got to take down the very genki Kotonowaka. I really like the chances of this match being a big slug fest deluxe.
Hoshoryu vs Shodai – Shodai’s already kadoban, already make-koshi, and sort of shunted off to the side. He may not face the Yokozuna on the final match of the tournament, and frankly I am a bit annoyed that they don’t treat him like an Ozeki most of the time. I wish that this would motivate him to higher performance, but if I had to guess this just makes him depressed. He has never beaten Hoshoryu, and I have to wonder if the torikumi group is just taunting him now.
Terunofuji vs Abi – Abi does indeed still have a path to the cup, but he’s got to beat Terunofuji to get there. This is not going to be easy, as the Yokozuna is big, stable and patient in the extreme. Abi will want to crank up the double arm thrusts, Terunofuji will want to capture and crush. My money is on the Kaiju. He won their only prior match.
Former Komusubi Ms5 Ryuden‘s march toward a second-straight Makushita yusho was interrupted by former collegiate star Ms35 Nishikawa (7-0), who won their championship-deciding bout. After debuting at Sd100 in March, Nishikawa was on a rapidly rising trajectory before being derailed by an injury in Kyushu. It looks like he is back on track, and should be ranked in the Makushita promotion zone (Ms1-Ms5) in Osaka, where a good record could lead to a sekitori debut in May.
Despite his loss, Ms5e Ryuden (6-1) should still be promoted to Juryo. Joining him there will be Ms2w Shimazuumi (4-2) and Ms3e Takakento (4-3). That accounts for the 3 slots open due to the absences of Asanoyama, Chiyonoo, and Shiden.
J13 Chiyoarashi (4-9) has staged a bit of a rally, but still needs two wins and some banzuke luck to stay. Tomorrow, he is up against Ms4w Tochimaru (4-2); a loss will send Chiyoarashi down for sure, while a win may or may not earn Tochimaru a promotion depending on other results, and a loss won’t necessarily eliminate him from contention.
Key to this picture are the other two crossover bouts. Ms1w Atamifuji (3-3) will be in Juryo with a win, but eliminated with a loss. He takes on J13 Kotoyusho (6-7), who still needs another win for safety. And the other demotion candidate, J14 Hiradoumi (6-7) fights Shimazuumi. Finally, Ms4e Kairyu (3-3), who must win and hope for losses by others, is not on the torikumi tomorrow and is probably looking at a potential exchange bout on Day 15. I should note that there is one other potentially endangered incumbent: J11 Hakuyozan (5-8).
Well, all of the buildup in Jonokuchi over the past 10 days culminated with a rather perfunctory oshidashi win and yusho for Nakashima over the blocking-sled, Nishikimaru. It’s the first great leap forward as he attempts to climb back to Makushita. Congratulations!
If Ryuden had been a 90% favorite in each bout in Juryo, it’s still a significant challenge to put together a string of 7 consecutive wins. He had succeeded in Kyushu. Here in Tokyo he certainly defeated his biggest threats earlier in this tournament by defeating the up-and-coming Atamifuji as well as former top division wrestlers like Tomokaze and Akiseyama.
Despite his experience as a top-division competitor, after the matta I have to wonder if nerves got the better of him today. He very nearly lost flat out at the tachiai. You can hear the gasps of the crowd as Nishikawa’s first pull down attempt nearly succeeded. He briefly recovered but didn’t have much of a counter-attack going. Nishikawa took his chances and the second pull down attempt was successful.
Down in Jonidan, Asahanshin defeated Kawamura for the yusho. You may remember Kawamura had been in our Jonokuchi coverage in November but had the bad luck of facing both Chiyoshishi and Raiho, losing to both, and squeaking by with a 4-3 record. It was a very close call for Asahanshin but he successfully pushed Kawamura out from behind for the okuritaoshi win. Both are likely on track for sandanme. Speaking of Sandanme, Asahanshin’s Takasago stablemate, Osanai, will face Mukainakano in a playoff on senshuraku.
