Kyushu Day 10 Highlights

Two more rikishi picked up their kachi-koshi today, as the bulk of the top division remains somewhere between 4-6 and 6-4. Solid sumo today, with the standout fights being Tamawashi’s win over Wakamotoharu, and Ura finally finding his second white star.

At the end of act 2, we can now say that Mitakeumi will not be Ozeki in January. He was unable to handle Midorifuji, and hit the clay in under 15 seconds during the second half of sumo in Fukuoka. I had always thought that Mitakeumi would hold Ozeki for a good while, as his performance had been rather consistent for over 2 years. But then came July of 2022, and he went kyujo in the middle of the COVID disrupted Nagoya basho, and he has not been the same since. His Ozeki tenure was only 4 tournaments long. To further the Ozekipocalypse story line, Shodai lost his 6th match today when he could find no answer to Horshoryu’s overwhelming initial attack. All around, a rough day in the named ranks.

Highlight Matches

Azumaryu defeats Kotoeko – Kotoeko had a tough time setting up offense today, Azumaryu kept him moving, which it turns out is the right thing to do. A pull attempt by Azumaryu fails, but gets Kotoeko off balance enough that he can shove him out. Azumaryu now 6-4.

Onosho defeats Ichiyamamoto – Onosho gets a good attack from below against Ichiyamamoto’s arms, breaking his double arm pushing attack train. In response it seems Ichiyamamoto loses his cool and pulls against Onosho. Many times this is a safe play, but Onosho had contact, and following Ichiyamamoto, running him out in a hurry to pick up the win. Both end the day 6-4.

Hiradoumi defeats Kotoshoho – Hiradoumi continues to over perform, he deflects Kotoshoho’s tachiai, then boosts Kotoshoho’s forward momentum with a grab on Kotoshoho’s right arm and a swift rotation. They called it tsukiotoshi, but maybe that was not quite right. Any way you call it, Hiradoumi now 7-3.

Oho defeats Aoiyama – Oho was able to avoid the opening blows from Aoiyama, and immediately went into a right hand outside yotsu position. Within moments Oho had both hands on Aoiyama’s belt, and the proceeded to take advantage of Big Dan’s bad knees, walking him back and quickly out. Oho improves to an impressive 9-0.

Okinoumi defeats Takanosho – Takanosho had a great start. He was able to get inside hand placement, he was pushing well and moving Okinoumi back. But his feet were aligned, and a quick pivot by Okinoumi was all it took to drop Takanosho to the clay for his 7th loss. Okinoumi up to 5-5.

Chiyoshoma defeats Takarafuji – Not sure if that was a henka, or a flying mawashi grab by Chiyoshoma to start the match. He gets his deep right hand hold on Takarafuji’s mawashi, and the two go chest to chest. The two exchange probing attacks, and frankly this is a second day in a row where things are trying to line up to give him a win. But Chiyoshoma gets him off balance, rotates and throws him to the clay. Chiyoshoma now 4-6 as Takarafuji is 0-10.

Tochinoshin defeats Terutsuyoshi – The second half of the daily Isegahama defeat double header. Tochinoshin traps him low at the tachiai, and he’s more or less done at that point. He tries to grab Tochinoshin’s leg, but it’s only a matter of time before Tochinoshin picks him and carries him out for the win. Tochinoshin at 4-6.

Endo defeats Atamifuji – For all of the fan enthusiasm around Atamifuji, he has turned out to be not quite ready for the top division. Endo gets a right hand inside, and rides that hold all the way to a win, locking in Atamifuji’s arm, lifting with his back and running him out. Endo picks up a much needed win and is 4-6.

Kagayaki defeats Myogiryu – A simple match that featured Myogiryu getting too far in front of his feet, and Kagayaki reading the situation and letting him fall. My compliments to Kagayaki for keeping his eyes on his opponents, and he is now 7-3.

Ryuden defeats Abi – Abi’s sumo is quite potent, but its very narrow. As soon as his double arm thrusting train is disrupted, he’s an easy mark. Ryuden is able to get off axis against Abi’s attacks, and returns the favor from Abi’s left side. A quick turn and push out from behind, and Ryuden picks up his 7th win. Both are now 7-3.

Ura defeats Nishikigi – I am delighted to see Ura get his second win. It came down to his right hand outside grip that gave him enough control of Nishikigi’s body to prevent Nishikigi from setting up any offense. A quick forward, turn and throw, and Nishikigi hits the clay. Ura advances to 2-8.

Meisei defeats Hokutofuji – Hokutofuji does not maintain contact with Meisei, allowing him to back off and rush forward multiple times. This was the key to disrupting Hokutofuji’s balance, and opened the door to the hikkake that won the match. Both men end the day at 6-4.

Nishikifuji defeats Ichinojo – Ichinojo tries to leverage his height advantage to attack Nishikifuji from above, but Nishikifuji seems to not care one bit. He puts the pressure on against Ichinojo’s chest and moves him back. A last minute attempt to pull Nishikifuji falls short, and Ichinojo is out. Nishikifuji takes his 8th win and is kachi-koshi, while Ichinojo is now make-koshi at 2-8.

Tamawashi defeats Wakamotoharu – It looks to me that Wakamotoharu was so disrupted by Tamawashi’s nodowa attack, that he decided to attempt a pull. This was never likely to work, and only served to set his balance to the rear, and Tamawashi escorted him out, advancing to 3-7.

Kotonowaka defeats Daieisho – Daieisho got his massive pushing attack combo, and succeeded in getting Kotonowaka on the move. But he did not mind his location well, and found Kotonowaka stepping to the side as Daieisho moved to finish pushing him out of the ring. Daieisho takes a fall and Kotonowaka picks up his 6th win to finish the day 6-4.

Takayasu defeats Tobizaru – Takayasu’s mission today – keep Tobizaru from getting mobile and starting to launch his combo attacks. In this case, his big forearm hit at the tachiai worked well, and Takayasu launches a combo of his own that ends in a right hand pull down that hits will full effect against Tobizaru’s neck. He’s on the clay and Takayasu is kachi-koshi at 8-2.

Midorifuji defeats Mitakeumi – Mitakeumi put as much as he could muster into today’s fight, but was unable to protect his body from Midorifuji’s reach in grip attempt. Midorifuji eventually was able to get both hands inside and on Mitakeumi’s belt, and the two locked up in the center of the dohyo. Mitakeumi eventually breaks Midorifuji’s grip, but Midorifuji has his hands inside and pushes hard to move Mitakeumi out. That’s the end of Mitakeumi’s Ozeki chances, and he is down to 4-6. Midorifuji improves to 5-5.

Wakatakakage defeats Sadanoumi – Wakatakakage keeps his Ozeki hopes alive, he traps Sadanoumi’s hands at the tachiai, and immediately puts his lower body to work running Sadanoumi out. It’s quick, it’s effective and it’s done. Wakatakakage up to 6-4.

Takakeisho defeats Kiribayama – Kiribayama twice tried to get a hold of Takakeisho’ and missed both times. Each time, Takakeisho gained a bit of advantage, and the match ended with Takakeisho’s hands clear and inside, applying overwhelming force to Kiribayama’s body. Takakeisho improves to 7-3.

Hoshoryu defeats Shodai – Shodai does a solid job of blocking Hoshoryu’s first attempt at hand placement, but Hoshoryu is just too fast, and gets his hands inside, and immediately pushes forward. Shodai is immediately in trouble, and as he is being rushed out of the ring, he tries to rotate into a rescue throw, but it’s too little too late, and Shodai lands next to the dohyo. Hoshoryu now 9-1.

Kyushu Day 10 Preview

Here we are at the final day of act 2. Act 2 is where we narrow the field to find out who has what it takes to compete for the yusho, and to start sorting the survivors from the damned. We can look back at the prior 4 days, and note that this mission has indeed been accomplished, though the formation of the yusho race was, for the third straight basho, delayed by a few days because nobody really stood out from the crowd in the middle weekend.

The last day of act 2 has a tremendous amount at stake, and is almost a mini-senshuraku in some ways. Some of the decision points teed up today:

  • Mitakeumi (4-5) – With 6 matches remaining, he must win them all or he loses his one chance to return to Ozeki. A loss today would end that bid
  • Wakatakakage (5-4) – With 5 wins, he needs 5 out of the last 6 matches to give any credibility to his hopes of stamping his ticket to Ozeki promotion at Hatsu. Given how inconsistent his performance has been this November, I would expect the NSK to extend his period of review by one basho anyhow
  • Takayasu, Nishikifuji, Abi (7-2) – All three could secure their kachi-koshi today with a win. None of them are out of the yusho race yet, but would need both leaders to stumble
  • Hoshoryu, Oho (8-1) – Currently leading the yusho race. They should expect everyone to be looking for them to eat at least one loss between now and Sunday, just to spice things up.

Kyushu Leaderboard

At last, I think it’s time for our leader board. Hoshoryu has to be marked as in the pole position for the cup, and while he’s tenuous at best, he’s currently the man to beat.

Leaders: Hoshoryu, Oho
Chasers
: Takayasu, Nishikifuji, Abi
Hunt Group: Takakeisho, Kiribayama, Hokutofuji, many others

6 matches remain

What We Are Watching Day 10

Kotoeko vs Azumaryu – A pair of 5-4 rikishi start off the top division today, with what could likely be a quick win for Kotoeko, who holds a 6-1 career advantage over Azumaryu. Azumaryu is looking for 8 wins by any route he can to finally secure his first top division kachi-koshi.

Onosho vs Ichiyamamoto – Onosho (5-4) had a solid 4-1 start to this basho, then proceeded to fight poorly and has gone 1-3 since day 5. Now sitting at a middling 5-4 record, he’s going to hope that Ichiyamamoto (6-3) stands still long enough that he can connect his big, tadpole style forward push a few times. If anything, Ichiyamamoto has shown in the past few days how he is incorporating more lateral motion into his sumo. Onosho should be careful.

Hiradoumi vs Kotoshoho – As the last man on the banzuke, Hiradoumi (6-3) has been a surprise this tournament. He has shown he can take on some top division regulars, and come out of if with a winning record. He has Kotoshoho (5-4) today, who won their only prior match on day 10 in September.

Aoiyama vs Oho – Now that Oho (8-1) has his kachi-koshi, I think his road to being knocked off the leaderboard starts today. Aoiyama (4-5) won their only prior match in January, by giving him the tent peg vs mallet treatment. I am certain he has a similar match plan today, and may be able to slug Oho around even though he is injured.

Takanosho vs Okinoumi – Under normal conditions, Takanosho (3-6) wins this one easily. But Takanosho is fighting a few notches below his normal, and will likely struggle against technician Okinoumi (4-5). They share an even 5-5 match history.

Takarafuji vs Chiyoshoma – The zero at the start of Takarafuji’s (0-9) score is like an abyssal well, a boundless source of unhappiness and trepidation. At least that’s how I see it. For him it may just be a natural consequence of fighting while injured. I think that Chiyoshoma (3-6) will be happy to pick up a win today.

Terutsuyoshi vs Tochinoshin – Terutsuyoshi (0-9) has already reported for orientation for the Juryo barge of the damned. As the plank-holder for this November edition, he will be responsible for sailing it safely from Fukuoka all the way back to Tokyo. As with the match above, 3-6 Tochinoshin will be thankful for the win.

Endo vs Atamifuji – As with most of Atamifuji’s matches this tournament, this is a first time bought. Endo is only fighting at at best 80%, but I would guess Atamifuji’s no better right now, so I would give Endo the edge. Both are 3-6.

Kagayaki vs Myogiryu – Although both of them are 6-3, I am fairly certain that this time out Myogiryu has the edge. Not only has he been fighting better, their 5-5 career record masks the fact that Myogiryu has won 3 of the last 4.

Abi vs Ryuden – Part of me really wants to see Abi (7-2) stay in the hunt for the Emperor’s cup, or at least hit double digits this time out. A win today against Ryuden (6-3) would be kachi-koshi for him. Abi holds a narrow 5-3 lead in their career series.

Ura vs Nishikigi – With Ura’s (1-8) knees likely in bad shape, I am not expecting him to offer much of a fight to yotsu-zumo connoisseur Nishikigi (4-5). Already make-koshi, I am fairly sure Ura will hit double digit losses this November. Hope you can heal up and come back strong in January, sir.

Meisei vs Hokutofuji – Hokutofuji (6-3) is on a bit of a hot streak right now, having won his last 4 in a row. I think that Meisei (5-4) is going to get the business today, and end up on the clay. Their career record is 4-3 in favor of Hokutofuji.

Nishikifuji vs Ichinojo – First ever match up, between 7-2 Nishikifuji and 2-7 Ichinojo. A loss today by the Boulder would be his 8th, and make-koshi for Kyushu. Hopefully if he does decide to go soft and let Nishikifuji execute “his brand of sumo”, he does not land too hard.

Tamawashi vs Wakamotoharu – Tamawashi (2-7) is struggling this tournament, no doubt about it. After taking the yusho in September, it would seem he came to Fukuoka injured, and has been grinding through the matches as best he can. He faces Wakamotoharu (5-4), who won their only prior match.

Kotonowaka vs Daieisho – This could be the most brutal match of the day if both rikishi employ their best sumo. We have 5-4 Kotonowaka against 4-5 Daieisho. Both of them can deliver big sumo action, and I would like nothing better than to see these two try to push each other to defeat.

Tobizaru vs Takayasu – Takayasu (7-2) has been an excellent spoiler this November, but today he faces the other spoiler, Tobizaru (5-4). As we saw on day 8, Tobizaru can be more frantic than even Takayasu, and still maintain a level of control and stability that Takayasu lacks. They have split their 4 prior matches, and a win today would be kachi-koshi for Takayasu.

Midorifuji vs Mitakeumi – Is it for Midorifuji to put an end to Mitakeumi’s aspirations for returning to the Ozeki rank? Mitakeumi won their only prior match, day 1 of Aki. But a loss today by Mitakeumi would make it impossible for him to reach the 10 wins he would need to return to sumo’s second highest rank. Both men are 4-5.

Wakatakakage vs Sadanoumi – Sadanoumi (4-5) has never won against Wakatakakage (5-4), and I don’t know of any reason for that to change today. But should his speed and bold sumo prevail, it will put a possibly fatal dent in Wakatakakage’s bid to be promoted to Ozeki early in 2023.

Takakeisho vs Kiribayama – Both men come into today with 6-3 records, and that means one of them is about to be knocked out of contention for the cup, even though both are 2 wins behind the leader pair. Takakeisho has a 7-4 career lead on the clay, but I think if Kiribayama is going to take one from the Grand Tadpole, this is going to be the time to do it. He has been on a bit of a win streak, with only the loss to Takayasu to blemish his run since the middle of act 1.

Hoshoryu vs Shodai – Well, Shodai. We know you can beat Hoshoryu, in fact you have won 5 of the prior 8 matches with the guy. You are bigger, you are strong, and believe it or not, you are still an Ozeki (at least for 6 more days). Gather your mojo and give Hoshoryu a big, pasty booger blast followed by a “Wall of Daikon”. Knock him back from the pole position, and open up the race.

Ozekipocalypse Now?

The photo above harkens back to the days, no so long ago, when sumo’s second-highest rank was stocked with multiple strong wrestlers. We also had Yokozuna above them on the banzuke. But the upper ranks have been dwindling ever since Asanoyama got suspended, getting bolstered only briefly by Mitakeumi’s promotion.

As Thomas laid out in his great post, we need at least two Ozeki and/or Yokozuna on the banzuke to convene a honbasho. No one is quite sure what would happen if the number dropped below this, and we probably don’t want to find out, but we are getting perilously close. For the moment, one spot is accounted for by Yokozuna Terunofuji, and we can only hope that his recent knee surgery will significantly extend his career. Ozeki Takakeisho (6-3) has been mostly solid, although he’s had his own injury issues. These two may very soon be the only rikishi standing between us and the Ozekipocalypse. For the record, the number has gotten this low exactly once in modern history, for a single basho in January of 1993.

Six days remain in the Kyushu basho, and our best bet to avoid matching this low is … Shodai? After a decent start, the kadoban Ozeki lost his last two bouts in a fairly listless fashion to drop to 4-5, and needs to finish 4-2 or better to avoid dropping to Sekiwake. Desperation-mode Shodai may yet pull another rabbit out of his hat, but with his highest-ranked opponents left to fight, the odds aren’t great.

Long as those odds may be, they are better than those that Mitakeumi (4-5) will go 6-0 to regain Ozeki, or that Wakatakakage (5-4) will win out and get promoted after a 3-basho run of 8-11-11. At this point, Hoshoryu might actually be a better bet to go 14-1 and get promoted off of 9-8-14 Y, but we are really in the realm of fantasy here. Any cavalry in the form of these two or the likes of Kiribayama, Takayasu, or (reaching here) Tobizaru won’t arrive before March or May at the earliest.

At this point, the likeliest scenario is that Hatsu will feature Terunofuji at the rare Yokozuna/Ozeki rank, with Takakeisho the sole Ozeki, Shodai seeking to rebound with 10 wins, and all eyes on who the next Ozeki might be.

Makushita Final Four

Please see my previous posts for background on the Makushita yusho and promotion races. Key bouts in the lower divisions are usually scheduled on odd-numbered days, meaning that elimination round 5 was completed on Day 9.

Here’s how things played out:

Ms1w Shonannoumi put up a very good fight and briefly had former Ozeki Asanoyama (Ms4e) in trouble, but the latter prevailed to move on.

Ms23e Tamashoho got a belt grip, and that spelled the end for Ms15w Tanabe. Tamashoho will fight Asanoyama, who has a big advantage in size and talent, and matches up well on the belt, but will have to watch out for the smaller man’s leg trips.

Ms41w Mineyaiba blew away teenager Ms26e Setonoumi and will fight Ms49w Chiyonokatsu, who overcame Ms60e Omoto.

So on Day 11 we will have two semifinals, whose winners will fight on Day 13 for all the marbles:

Asanoyama vs. Tamashoho

Mineyaiba vs. Chiyonokatsu

With no undefeated rikishi left at Ms6-Ms15, any promotions to Juryo will come from the Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone. We know at least one spot will be open due to Chiyotairyu’s sudden retirement. It’s too early to tell how many other openings there might be. Asanoyama can guarantee promotion by winning out, and is all but certain to go up with 6 wins, but things would get a lot more dicey should he somehow end the basho 5-2. Shonannoumi is also in good shape despite his loss, but needs one more win to solidify his case. The other one-loss man is former Juryo regular Ms5w Hakuyozan, whose rank at the very bottom of the promotion zone likely means he needs to win out.

Top-ranked Ms1e Shiden (2-3) lost his first crossover bout yesterday to J14e Tsushimanada, and now he must win out. I am expecting his next bout to come against another endangered Juryo rikishi. Ms2w Fujiseiun (3-2) probably also needs to win out to have a realistic shot at promotion. The M3 duo of Tokihayate and Daiseiryu, must win out to keep chair chances alive and hope for favorable results elsewhere.

None of the contenders are in action on Day 10, so the next update should come after Day 11 bouts are completed.