The photo above harkens back to the days, no so long ago, when sumo’s second-highest rank was stocked with multiple strong wrestlers. We also had Yokozuna above them on the banzuke. But the upper ranks have been dwindling ever since Asanoyama got suspended, getting bolstered only briefly by Mitakeumi’s promotion.
As Thomas laid out in his great post, we need at least two Ozeki and/or Yokozuna on the banzuke to convene a honbasho. No one is quite sure what would happen if the number dropped below this, and we probably don’t want to find out, but we are getting perilously close. For the moment, one spot is accounted for by Yokozuna Terunofuji, and we can only hope that his recent knee surgery will significantly extend his career. Ozeki Takakeisho (6-3) has been mostly solid, although he’s had his own injury issues. These two may very soon be the only rikishi standing between us and the Ozekipocalypse. For the record, the number has gotten this low exactly once in modern history, for a single basho in January of 1993.
Six days remain in the Kyushu basho, and our best bet to avoid matching this low is … Shodai? After a decent start, the kadoban Ozeki lost his last two bouts in a fairly listless fashion to drop to 4-5, and needs to finish 4-2 or better to avoid dropping to Sekiwake. Desperation-mode Shodai may yet pull another rabbit out of his hat, but with his highest-ranked opponents left to fight, the odds aren’t great.
Long as those odds may be, they are better than those that Mitakeumi (4-5) will go 6-0 to regain Ozeki, or that Wakatakakage (5-4) will win out and get promoted after a 3-basho run of 8-11-11. At this point, Hoshoryu might actually be a better bet to go 14-1 and get promoted off of 9-8-14 Y, but we are really in the realm of fantasy here. Any cavalry in the form of these two or the likes of Kiribayama, Takayasu, or (reaching here) Tobizaru won’t arrive before March or May at the earliest.
At this point, the likeliest scenario is that Hatsu will feature Terunofuji at the rare Yokozuna/Ozeki rank, with Takakeisho the sole Ozeki, Shodai seeking to rebound with 10 wins, and all eyes on who the next Ozeki might be.
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It’s Shodai or bust. What has the sumo world come to. Chairman Hakkaku must be ready to eat both his own buttocks out of frustration.
Does Terunofuji actually have to participate, or is it sufficient that he’s listed on the banzuke for the NSK to say “we have two ozeki; the basho can procede!”?
I think just being on the banzuke would suffice.
My pessimism is spreading… This is all very fun to talk about in the hypothetical, but a 2 Y/O future looks to be imminent now and that’s scary. Both Mitakeumi and Shodai seem to have these chronic bouts of sumo depression where their wrestling looks listless and spiritless, almost as if they expected themselves to lose. I can’t help thinking these chronic confidence issues mean they were never suited for the rank in the first place. It’s a miracle they got there at all.
Hoshoryu and Kotonowaka are my Ones To Watch. They’re young and showcasing more and more class each basho. Another year or so and they’ll be dominant. I tend to think WTK is peaking at Sekiwake but I’d love to be proven wrong.
Regardless of who makes the next Ozeki run, Terunofuji will feel a lot of pressure to linger, no matter his health issues, until the top division has some reliable leaders again.
Trying times…
This was the picture that I was thinking to use for Thomas’ post. Ah, those were the days…
And it’s just telling how long the fallen Ozeki have remained in the division, despite their injuries. When was the last time we saw the Sky Crane?
Don‘t worry, there‘s no such thing as an Ozekipocalypse and never will be.
Just imagine the consequences if they obeyed that rule to the letter: Sumo as we know it wouldn‘t exist any longer!
As (almost) nobody wants this, they would either name new Ozeki or simply ignore the rule.
I still stand by what I said on the earlier post. This basho is the first time since January of 2020 that any day of the basho has sold out. The NSK does NOT want to have to cancel any more honbasho! I’ve been eyeing Takakeisho and you can tell the weight of being the only Ozeki up to snuff is on his mind. He’s fighting like a man with something to prove, IMHO.
I have a feeling things are about to get ugly at the top of the banzuke and the guy with the most pressure on him will be Butterball (Takakeisho).
Think about it:
1) While I’m no fan of his, it’s sad to see and obvious that Mitakeumi isn’t the same rikishi he was when he made his Ozeki run. Something is very off with the dude and he won’t get his 10 wins this basho.
2) Looks like FINALLY (I hope), we’ll be rid of the Faux-Zeki Shodai. This guy has been a vomit inducing epic failure at Ozeki and doesn’t in any way deserve the rank ever again.
3) T-Rex (Terunofuji) has a pair of wrecked knees and can no longer produce the power in his legs to dominate and wreck shop on the dohyo. Surgery can only do so much and I doubt he’ll be on the banzuke by this time next year.
4) That leaves Butterball as the lone standard bearer in the near future and his limited skill set will keep him from becoming Yokozuna. He’s 26 and should be in his prime and it’s unfortunate for him and his fans but due to that awful neck injury his best days are already behind him and as pretty much a one trick pony most of the other rikishi have him figured out.
That means the future belongs to……?
1) Tobizaru – 30, at best might make Ozeki but I doubt it
2) Abi – 28, needs to stay healthy and hussle to make Ozeki which is where he’ll top out
3) Asanoyama – 28, at least 2 basho away from returning to Makuuchi, his stupidity probably cost him a shot at Yokozuna
4) Wakatakakage – 28, soon his window of opportunity will close, he needs to strike now
5) Kiribayama – 26, Mongolian, needs to pick up the pace like Wakatakakage and Nishikifuji
6) Nishikifuji – 26, needs to get a move on now
7) Hoshoryu – 23, Mongolian, just hitting his prime but needs to stay focused and patient, and like Wakatakakage he needs to strike now
8) Oho – 22, limited skills, not impressive, and certainly not an Ozeki/Yokozuna caliber rikishi
While the Juryo and below ranks may have some up and comers, right now this is what I see as the Makuuchi future for the next year. Butterball and a few on the list above. Oho, Mitakeumi, and Shodai have no part in the future. The first has limited talent and the other two are past their their prime days.
I imagine that they’ll simply keep Terunofuji’s career on life support (even if he never fights again) until they can justify naming another Ozeki or two.
That still requires Takakeisho to hang around as Ozeki.
Aren’t we losing site of something? Sumo is a sport, and the guts of sport is competition. Not rules which, in fact, change over time if needed to make the sport better, or more competitive.
And the rule in question goes back in time and caters to the Japanese reverence for rank. In each of the recent tournaments in which Terunofuji laid waste to the competition, I came away bored. Not his fault of course, but we weren’t talking the 4 Yokozuna of the recent past.
I say change the damn rule. But of course I’m talking about a group that became paralyzed when the nurses ran into the ring to save the life of a man.
We’re currently going thru a period of transition, with some interesting young talent coming up.
And the tournaments are (to me) interesting. The Yokozuna and Ozeki will come. But if it takes a while, so be it.
I imagine that there simply is too much money at stake to stick to this rule, if push ever comes to shove (which, come to think of it, is an appropriate idiom for a sumo discussion).
I think that’s the thing we Westerners struggle with—sumo is not primarily seen as a sport in Japan, and the competition aspect is almost secondary.
The thing is that sumo is not just a sport and it isn’t managed as just sport. Like it or not. The rules for Ozeki promotion aren’t set in stone (and neither are those for Yokozuna). Hoshoryu and Wakatakakage are rikishi with a kachikoshi streak in Sanyaku for the last 6 basho or so. If they desperately need an Ozeki, they will probably promote one or both of them. As posted here before, there have been Ozeki promotions with as few as 28 wins in times of need.
https://tachiai.org/2019/02/14/a-brief-history-of-ozeki-runs/
Great comment, thanks.
That should put an end to the topic.
Realistically I think Wakatakakage is in basho 2 and Hoshoryu is in basho 1 of their current runs. Hoshoryu’s current basho is without question at least until now the biggest breakout of his career so I can’t see the kyokai doing anything wacky given the track record. Wakatakakage I can see being in a shootout with Shodai in January to claim the rank.
Yeah, especially with Terunofuji and Takakeisho all but certain to occupy their ranks at least until May.