What’s at stake going into the final weekend? A lot!

The Yusho Race

Daiesho (11-2) is the sole leader, chased by Kiribayama, Wakamotoharu, and Midorifuji with 3 losses, and Hoshoryu, Kotonowaka, and Kinbozan with 4. A Day 14 win by Daieisho against Midorifuji eliminates everyone except Kiribayama and Wakamotoharu, at least one of whom must win to extend the race to Day 15. If Midorifuji can pull off the upset (the head-to-head is 1-1), then he stays in contention, along with Kiribayama, Wakamotoharu, and any Day 14 winners from the 4-loss group, with the potential for a multi-way playoff for the cup!

The San’yaku

Of the seven current Sekiwake and Komusubi, all except K2e Tobizaru (4-9) will stay in San’yaku; the only question is at what ranks. We’ll have at least 3 Sekiwake: S1w Hoshoryu (9-4) and S2e Kiribayama (10-3) by virtue of their winning records, and K2e Daieisho (11-2) by virtue of his 11 wins. They can still be joined by S1e Wakatakakage (7-6), who followed his ice-cold 0-5 start with a 7-1 stretch and needs one more win to defend his rank, as well as K1e Wakamotoharu (10-3) and K1w Kotonowaka (9-4), who need one and two wins, respectively, to hit the requisite 11. Similar circumstances gave us a record five Sekiwake back in 1972, and we could easily match or exceed that total!

So the incumbents could sort themselves into anything from 3S/3K to 6S/0K. Depending on how this plays out, we could have no, one, or two open Komusubi slots. The promotion contenders are M1w Shodai (8-5), M5w Midorifuji (10-3), and M2e Abi (8-5), who, unusually, have to hope for wins by the incumbents!

Makuuchi-Juryo Exchanges

I see no way that J1e Asanoyama (11-2) and J3e Ichinojo (12-1) can be denied promotion. The Juryo yusho race also comes down to these two; Asanoyama has to keep winning and hope that someone can hand a loss to Ichinojo (they already met on Day 4, with Ichinojo prevailing).

Whose spots would they take? The top candidate is J14w Bushozan (4-9), who’d be exchanged for either even if he wins out. M11e Azumaryu (3-10) has rallied to win 3 of his last 4, but still needs to win out to avoid a demotable record. M17e Mitoryu (7-6), M15w Oho (6-7), and M16w Tsurugisho (7-6) each need a win, and given the strength of the two promotion cases and the current dearth of demotion candidates, I might not rest completely easy if I were M12e Kagayaki (5-8) or even M15e Hokuseiho (7-6). We may even see a very rare over-demotion of someone who should be safe by the numbers if it’s necessary to accommodate one of the Juryo leaders.

On the other hand, if those in danger start piling up losses, the door could open to J1w Tohakuryu (7-6), J6e Gonoyama (9-4), J3w Shonannoumi (7-6), or J5w Enho (8-5).

Juryo-Makushita Exchanges

First, an update on the Makushita yusho race! Ryuo prevailed after a long battle with Kaizen to take his first honors of any kind after an 11-year career in the lower divisions. He should be up in the promotion zone next time, where he can take his first shot at earning a sekitori debut.

The promotion queue looks like this:

1. Ms2w Chiyosakae (5-1)
2. Ms3w Kawazoe (4-2) with a win
3. Ms2e Fujiseiun (4-3)
4. Ms3e Tokihayate (4-3)
5. Kawazoe with a loss

Kawazoe is up in Juryo tomorrow, where he’ll try to ensure his own promotion and open up another slot by beating J11e Shimanoumi (4-9). With J14e Tokushoryu (4-9) and J12e Tochimusashi (4-9) already headed down, that means that there’s definitely room for Chiyosakae and Fujiseiun either way, with Chiyosakae and Tokushoryu trading divisions for the second-straight basho. If Kawazoe loses, he falls to 4th in line, and he and Tokihayate would have to hope for enough losses by Shimanoumi, J10e Kotokuzan (4-9), and J9e Tsushimanada (4-9) to create space for them.

With 11 days of action in the books, let’s take a look at where things stand.

San’yaku

The best-performing Sekiwake, S1w Hoshoryu and S2e Kiribayama, both ran their records to 8-3, successfully defending their ranks. They’ll face off tomorrow for bragging rights and possibly for the lead in any emergency Ozeki promotion discussions. Top-ranked S1e Wakatakakage (5-6) needs to win 3 of 4 to maintain rank for the 8th straight basho, and 2 of 4 to stay in San’yaku. He takes on the yusho leader, Midorifuji, tomorrow.

Three of the four Komusubi, K1e Wakamotoharu (8-3), K1w Kotonowaka (8-3), and K2e Daieisho (9-2), will at least stay at the rank; they can make Sekiwake by reaching 11 wins. K2w Tobizaru (4-7) must win out or return to the maegashira ranks.

So no regular San’yaku slots will open up (unless multiple Komusubi force promotion to Sekiwake; an unprecedented 6 Sekiwake is not off the table yet!). We’ll see if anyone can do enough to create an extra Komusubi slot, with M5w Midorifuji (10-1) the only one I’d give decent odds to do so, unless M1w Shodai (6-5) wins out.

Makuuchi-Juryo Exchanges

No one has confirmed a seat on the Juryo barge yet. M11e Azumaryu (1-10) is in the worst shape, needing to win out for safety. M14w Bushozan (4-7), M17e Mitoryu (6-5), M15w Oho (5-6) and M16w Tsurugisho (7-4), and M12w Takarafuji (4-7) all need between one and two wins.

J1e Asanoyama (10-1) has done more than enough to ensure a return to Makuuchi after two years. J3e Ichinojo (10-1), who is also in the second division only for disciplinary reasons, should likewise be on his way back up. The two san’yaku-caliber rikishi are on course for a playoff clash for the yusho, which would be a rematch of the Day 4 bout won by Ichinojo.

If additional slots open up, J6e Gonoyama (8-3), J1w Tohakuryu (5-6) and J3w Shonannoumi (6-5) are in with a chance, but need 3 wins apiece to start the conversation, while J5w Enho (6-5) is a long shot at this point.

See this separate post for a look at the Juryo-Makushita exchange picture.

With 10 days of action in the books, let’s take a look at where things stand.

San’yaku

I don’t think we’ll see any Ozeki promotions this time, but if the NSK is desperate enough, they could consider S1w Hoshoryu (11-4, 8-7, 7-3, all at Sekiwake) or S2e Kiribayama (8-7 K, 11-4 K, 7-3 S) if either can really run up the score. With 7 wins apiece already, they’ll be ranked no lower than Komusubi in May, and one more win would keep both at Sekiwake. Top-ranked S1e Wakatakakage (4-6) needs to win 4 of 5 to maintain rank for the 8th straight basho, and 3 of 5 to stay in San’yaku.

Two of the four Komusubi, K1w Kotonowaka and K2e Daieisho, sport 8-2 records that will at least keep them at the rank; they can make Sekiwake either if spots open up or if they can reach 11 wins. K1e Wakamotoharu (7-3) is a win away from holding rank, while K2w Tobizaru (4-6) has a lot of work left to do.

It’s not clear how many, if any, regular San’yaku slots will open up. The yusho race leader M5w Midorifuji (10-0) is the clear frontrunner for one, with M1w Shodai (6-4) next in line.

Makuuchi-Juryo Exchanges

No one has confirmed a seat on the Juryo barge yet. M11e Azumaryu (1-9) is in the worst shape, needing 4 wins for safety. M17e Mitoryu (5-5) and M15w Oho (4-6) need 3 apiece, while M14w Bushozan (4-6), M12w Takarafuji (3-7), and M16w Tsurugisho (6-4) need 2.

J1e Asanoyama (9-1) has done more than enough to ensure a return to Makuuchi after two years. J3e Ichinojo (9-1), who is also in the second division only for disciplinary reasons, should likewise be on his way back up, unless there is absolutely no room. J6e Gonoyama (8-2) and J3w Shonannoumi (6-4) are in with a chance, while J1w Tohakuryu (4-6) and J5w Enho (6-4) are long shots who need a lot of wins and help.

I’ll take a separate look at the Juryo-Makushita exchange picture in the near future.

We can list many signs of the historic weakness of the top division this tournament, but one has to be that after eight days, the Juryo leaderboard looks more impressive than the Makuuchi one, and that many of us would back the eventual second-division champion to win a fantasy bout for top sekitori against the winner of the Emperor’s Cup.

The Juryo yusho race is a 4-way tie between rikishi with one loss. The four are former Ozeki J1e Asanoyama, J3e Ichinojo, the July Makuuchi champion, J6e Gonoyama, who might be on the verge of a breakthrough in his 5th sekitori basho, and J14w Ochiai, a white-hot prospect who is fighting in only his second professional basho and has lost just once in 15 bouts. Asanoyama’s only loss is to Ichinojo, and Ichinojo’s only loss is to Gonoyama. Two rikishi trail at 6-2, and six more are in striking distance at 5-3, the most notable being J3w Shonannoumi (who was 5-1 before facing Asanoyama and Ichinojo) and J5w Enho.

Asanoyama needs one more win to secure Makuuchi re-promotion, while Ichinojo needs two to make a strong case. Gonoyama, Shonannoumi, and J1w Tohakuryu (4-4) need four wins to stake a claim, while Enho is more of a long shot, needing five.

At the other end of the standings, several rikishi find themselves in danger of dropping out of the salaried ranks. At the head of that queue is J12e Tochimusashi (1-7), who’s looked progressively worse each basho after his yusho in his Juryo debut, and who deserves to drop because of his reliance on dangerous techniques, including the arm bar that injured Ochiai’s left elbow. Others who need more wins than losses to reach safety are J14e Tokushoryu (3-5), J10e Kotokuzan (1-7), and J11e Shimanoumi (2-6). We’ll keep an eye on the division exchange picture as the action continues in Juryo and in Makushita.