We are about to start day 12, and only a handful of matches remain in the 2022 Natsu basho. It’s going to be intense as we have a lot of high interest matches today including an extended tour of the upper ranks by the Miyagino giant Hokuseiho. The second to last match has a lot of attention from fans, some of them saying that whomever wins will be Ozeki in July. I am not yet convinced that Kiribayama will get the nod this basho if he only beats an injured Takakeisho. Of course the whole matter is up to the Sumo Kyokai, and I am sure we will hear about it shortly after the final match on Sunday.

For Sunday, there is now a Darwin’s Funnel in effect. We can clearly see the schedulers working to herd as many rikishi with middling scores towards a day 14 finishing score of 7-7, setting up a spread of single elimination matches. As nasty and cruel as it may seem, it underscores the zero sumo game that is sumo. Every time someone gets a white star, the other rikishi gets a black star. Thus there are only so many wins in any division at the end of day 15. Those that accumulate a lot, like Terunofuji and Asanoyama, have to pull them from their opponents.\

Natsu Leaderboard

We are nearly to the point where the only path to the cup will be with Terunofuji, Asanoyama and Kiribayama. I still favor Terunofuji to win it all, but the last 4 matches are likely to be brutal. I also wonder how many more upper rank challenges Hokuseiho will face. It’s one thing to throw the former Ozeki M14 Asanoyama at the san’yaku, he more or less belongs there right now, but it’s another thing for Hokuseiho to have a daily diet of sumo’s best right now. For having such challenges in his path, he has done remarkably well.

Leaders: Terunofuji, Asanoyama
Chasers: Kiribayama
Hunt Group: Wakamotoharu, Meisei, Hokuseiho, Tsurugisho

4 Matches Remain

What We Are Watching Day 12

Chiyoshoma (6-5) vs Ichiyamamoto (3-8) – Ichiyamamoto is already make-koshi, and may be employed here to donate a win to Chiyoshoma. He is the Kokonoe heyagashira, and it would be good to keep him in the top division. They have a fairly even 2-3 record, so this is far from a certain win for Chiyoshoma. He still needs 2 wins to reach his 8.

Myogiryu (6-5) vs Daishoho (5-6) – An excellent funnel match, as both of these rikishi are straddling the center line. Ideally Myogiryu would lose and they would both end the day 6-6. The wrinkle in that plan is that Myogiryu has beaten Daishoho in both prior matches.

Mitoryu (4-7) vs Takarafuji (3-8) – Mitoryu is one loss away from make-koshi, and he goes up against already make-koshi Takarafuji, who seems completely unable to execute anything other than the motions of a sumo match, without any of the required power to make it work.

Onosho (6-5) vs Oho (7-4) – As unlikely as it may seem, an Oho win today would be kachi-koshi for him. It would mean an amazing 7 wins out of the last 8 matches, which given how lethargic his sumo has been just does not seem plausible. Onosho won their prior match this year against an overall 1-2 career record. Maybe Onosho can come in ready to grab his 7th win today.

Tsurugisho (8-3) vs Hiradoumi (7-4) – I don’t recall ever seeing Tsurugisho fight this well in the top division. Today’s match will test out just how genki he is during act 3. He gets to face hot shot Hiradoumi, who has beaten Tsurugisho in all 3 prior matches. A win today for Hiradoumi would be kachi-koshi.

Sadanoumi (5-6) vs Kotoeko (6-5) – Both of these rikishi have fought well this basho, but not well enough to escape the funnel. They are straddling the center line and the recommended outcome is both are 6-6 at the end of today. Kotoeko does have a career 9-5 record against Sadanoumi, having won the last 6 matches in a row.

Hokutofuji (4-7) vs Ryuden (4-7) – One of these two will leave the dohyo today with a fresh new make-koshi. We all know that Hokutofuji is the man with the most powerful make-koshi in all of sumo, and that might make him a favorite to lose today. But in fact, he has a 10-5 career lead over Ryuden, who seems to be suffering once more from a chronic hip injury.

Aoiyama (4-7) vs Tamawashi (5-6) – A pair of grizzled old vets with 4 working tendons between them. Both are fighting at maybe 50% intensity, and it’s kind of tough to watch. Sure Aoiyama has a 9-7 career record against Tamawashi, but that’s not likely to matter right now given how banged up they both are. A loss today would be make-koshi for Aoiyama.

Kagayaki (5-6) vs Mitakeumi (6-5) – Another Darwin’s funnel match, with both rikishi straddling the center line. But Kagayaki has never won against Mitakeumi, and if Mitakeumi loses today, I am going to consider revoking his Tadpole status.

Tobizaru (5-6) vs Ura (5-6) – More funnel madness! Both men are 5-6, the winner gets to keep on track for a day 15 Darwin match, the loser is one black star away from make-koshi. Tobizaru holds a 5-1 career advantage, but I try to keep in mind that Ura seems to have found a reserve of reality distortion cream, and is using it to win matches the last 2 days.

Takanosho (4-7) vs Nishikifuji (2-9) – You combine Takanosho’s record, and his 0-3 history against Nishikifuji, and you get a likely outcome of make-koshi for Takanosho today. Nishikifuji is already there, so he is likely happy to bring another into the losing side of the roster. The only problem to that is how poorly Nishikifuji has been fighting this month.

Abi (5-6) vs Meisei (8-3) – Sadly once red hot Meisei has faded into the second week, and has now lost 3 of the last 4 after dropping a match to Hiradoumi on day 8. He has a tough fight against Abi today, who has a 6-4 history of taking his lunch money. In addition, Meisei has lost all prior matches to Abi this year. An Abi win would put him at 6-6, a prime position for the funnel.

Takayasu (1-1-9) vs Midorifuji (3-8) – Takayasu is already at a 10 loss make-koshi, so he’s really just trying to cushion the fall at this point. He’s got size and skill over Midorifuji on a good day, but Midorifuji is not looking anything like his normal self. He’s already make-koshi, and has lost 3 straight matches coming into today.

Kotonowaka (5-6) vs Nishikigi (5-6) – Both are 5-6, so this is a prime funnel match. Kotonowaka has the well earned reputation for being a tough competitor, but I hope he does not underestimate what Nishikigi can do if he gets the right opening. The winner will advance to 6-6 and be in the middle of the funnel for day 13.

Shodai (5-6) vs Kinbozan (4-7) – I am not sure who should win here. I know that if Kinbozan loses he is make-koshi, but that’s going to happen anyhow. If Shodai wins, he’s in the middle of the funnel. Oh my, such temptations. I think it would be best if Kinbozan can stave off make-koshi for another day. This is their first ever match.

Daieisho (7-4) vs Asanoyama (10-1) – Daieisho can reach kachi-koshi and knock Asanoyama out of the lead at the same time. That’s quite a nice ripe peach to be picked. He has a 9-7 career advantage against the former Ozeki, so maybe he can make it work. Their last match was day 12 of Natsu 2021, which Asanoyama won. Let the deja-vu commence!

Hokuseiho (8-3) vs Hoshoryu (7-4) – They are not giving Maegashira 11 Hokuseiho any breaks, he is now stomping up to battle against Hoshoryu, who needs to overcome a ludicrous size advantage to pick up his 8th win and reach kachi-koshi. Hopefully he watch the footage of how Wakamotoharu did it, but I would guess that Hakuho / Miyagino is loading his giant up with some explicit things to try in todays match. Should be worth staying up to watch.

Kiribayama (9-2) vs Takakeisho (7-4) – A big battle in the second to last match. If Takakeisho wins, he clears kadoban. If Kiribayama wins, he reaches double digits and has a fairly strong case to be promoted to Ozeki. If Takakeisho was healthy, he would have the advantage, but we know he is not. I expect Kiribayama is going to capture a belt hold early and toss the Grand Tadpole out of the pond.

Terunofuji (10-1) vs Wakamotoharu (8-3) – They have only fought twice before, with both going to Terunofuji. He’s holding in tough for the final 4 matches, and he’s still the favorite to take the cup. But Wakamotoharu has made a step change improvement to his sumo, and I want to see him give the Yokozuna a challenging fight today.

Day 11 started act 3 off with a bang. Two new kachi-koshi, three new make-koshi, and what looks like a Darwin funnel starting to form. The race for the cup is more or less down to 3 now, and we have set up some great matches for the final 4 days. We have to wonder what kind of switch was thrown in Oho and Nishikigi, as these guys are winning matches now rather than eating dirt.

Highlight Matches

Daishoho defeats Mitoryu – Many times, the battles of the mega-fauna unfold in slow motion, and this was the case today. Both men tend to operate at a languid pace today, comfortable to battle hug and lean into each other for a time. The end was no more exciting than the start, with Daishoho walking forward slowly for the yorikiri. Daishoho advances (slowly) to 5-6.

Kagayaki defeats Takarafuji – Takarafuji has no defense today, and his brand of sumo is 80% defense. Thus Kagayaki easily got him on the move and send him back, then out. It’s truly sad to watch this if you like Takarafuji. Kagayaki picks up a much needed win and is 5-6, while Takarafuji is now make-koshi at 3-8.

Ryuden defeats Aoiyama – Ryuden endures Aoiyama’s surprisingly limp thrusting attacks, latching onto Big Dan’s mawashi and getting him on the move. Aoiyama makes a half hearted (quarter hearted?) pulling attempt then goes soft and steps out. This is the look of a man who is hurt and has no intention of taking a fall to compound the issue. Both end the day at 4-7 and are ripe for make-koshi on day 12.

Onosho defeats Myogiryu – This match was low on tactical intrigue, but high on forward pressure. For a time Myogiryu battled back, but could not hold power against Onosho’s front push. He also goes soft and steps out to Onosho’s oshidashi. They both end the day at 6-5.

Takanosho defeats Chiyoshoma – Kind of a surprise finish on this one, as Chiyoshoma had all of the offense in this match. He used a number of push/pull combos to break Takanosho’s balance, but on the final pull down, was out before Takanosho landed. The gyoji looked a bit lost, but eventually pointed the gumbai at Takanosho. I expected a monoii on that alone, but it stood as called. Takanosho improves to 4-7.

Oho defeats Sadanoumi – There has been some sort of evolution in Oho, he has now won 6 of the last 7 matches. He could have lost today, had Sadanoumi kept closer contact. A couple of time Oho was off balance and out of position, just waiting for a slap down, but Sadanoumi was too far away. Oho eventually gets a body hold on Sadanoumi, and heaves him out for a yorikiri, improving to 7-4. Hard to think through that this cupcake could be kachi-koshi tomorrow.

Tamawashi defeats Ichiyamamoto – Tamawashi’s body may be too sore for him to pour on the power right now, but he still has the moves. I love how he captures Ichiyamamoto, turns him and then flings him out. That was loss #8 for Ichiyamamoto and he is make-koshi. Tamawashi improves to 5-6.

Tsurugisho defeats Mitakeumi – This was about as straightforward of a match as you could ask for. They grapple at the tachiai, and Tsurugisho envelopes Mitakeumi with his big hold and wide stance. That is actually saying quite a bit, as Mitakeumi is himself a rather wide fellow. Tsurugisho then crab walks forward and the yorikiri is complete. Tsurugisho now kachi-koshi at 8-3.

Asanoyama defeats Meisei – Meisei shows us how much he wants to win this match by surprising Asanoyama by setting up morozashi and lifting the former Ozeki clear of the dohyo. He puts Asanoyama’s heels on the tawara and looks to be about to score an major win. But Asanoyama counters with a pivot and thrust, sending them both the the clay. Meisei looks around for a monoii, but the Asanoyama win stands. Asanoyama hits double digits at 10-1, and maintains his share of the lead.

Kotoeko defeats Kinbozan – This guy beat an Ozeki? Kotoeko packs, boxes, tags and ships Kinbozan like he works at FedEx. At the tachiai Kotoeko gets a commanding grip, and takes control of the match. Kinbozan tries to evade and escape, but finds no exit before Kotoeko takes him out of the ring. Kotoeko now 6-5.

Nishikigi defeats Hokutofuji – A thousand years from now, the world’s stop scientists will try to figure out what happened to Nishikigi that he went from limp to potent like this. He has now won 4 in a row. Granted he was up against a man who prides himself on a vigorous make-koshi, and that tachiai was a terrible choice. Once Nishikigi takes hold, there was nothing Hokutofuji could do but try to wait for an opening. No opening was available, so Hokutofuji took the yorikiri instead. Nishikigi now 5-6.

Ura defeats Nishikifuji – Are fans getting tired of Ura’s celebration recovery moves? I know I am not, but I am a western barbarian from the anglosphere. I think this one was worth a bit of a celebration too. Nishikifuji was genuinely putting for a big effort to best Ura, and had him stalemated for most of the match. Ura did manage to break contact, and Nishikifuji went in for the win. Big gamble with Ura, who accepted Nishikifuji’s offer of a kinetic finish, and applied a tottari to send Nishikifuji hurtling past for a loss. Ura now 5-6.

Takayasu defeats Abi – Welcome back Takayasu! Abi goes for the big forward power thrusting attack, finds Takayasu is far too heavy today to really more, and gets a volley of blows to the back of his outstretched head. Down goes Abi by hatakikomi, and Takayasu gets his first win to be 1-10.

Shodai defeats Tobizaru – Tobizaru should have had that match, but there was a bit too “monkey” in his sumo today. Shodai lunged forward for a finishing move, mostly missed and was teetering at the edge of the ring. Sadly Tobizaru could not do anything with it, and caught Shodai’s follow up strike. Both end the day 5-6, and are headed for Darwin in my estimation.

Kotonowaka defeats Midorifuji – Midorifuji was horribly off balance from the start, and only his thrashing about kept Kotonowaka from dropping him to the clay any sooner. That’s loss 8 for Midorifuji, and he is make-koshi, while Kotonowaka improves to 5-6.

Kiribayama defeats Hiradoumi – Kiribayama looked very good today, strong, in control and shutting down all of Hiradoumi’s probing attacks. On the topic of Hiradoumi – this guy really gave the Ozeki hopeful a tough fight. He continues to impress me. But it seems Kiribayama is a man on a mission right now, with the skill to see it done. He waits out Hiradoumi, and then brutes him out by yorikiri. Kiribayama now 9-2, and faces kadoban Ozeki Takakeisho on day 12.

Wakamotoharu defeats Hokuseiho – What amazes me is that there is no chance to use an ottsuke against this guy. He just reaches over you and grabs your mawashi from the back. Wakamotoharu knows he is fighting an uphill battle, but really pours on the power against Hakuho’s giant. There is a lengthy chest to chest stalemate where Wakamotoharu seems to be testing how long Hokuseiho can maintain the pressure. The answer is – a long time. Wakamotoharu attacks first, and is shut down. Hokuseiho decides time is up, and moves for the yorikiri, but then Wakamotoharu gets one last roll of the dice. As Hokuseiho presses forward, Wakamotoharu moves for an utchari. Keep in mind, Wakamotoharu is rotating with giant in his grip, but manages to complete the arc, bringing Hokuseiho to the clay a moment before he touches down himself. Brilliant move. Wakamotoharu secures kachi-koshi at 8-3.

Takakeisho defeats Daieisho – What would you do if your friend was hurt and defending a hard-won rank that you yourself hope to achieve? That’s right, you make it look good. I am not saying Daieisho threw this match. But it did turn out the “right” way, did it not. Daieisho, you are a hero in my book. Both end the day 7-4, and Takakeisho can clear kadoban tomorrow.

Terunofuji defeats Hoshoryu – That’s nine matches that Hoshoryu has fought against Terunofuji, and not a single win. This guy gets worried about the kaiju and leaves the last 10% of his sumo in the akeni. Double inside grip against Terunofuji? You should know where that one goes. A quick kimedashi. Terunofuji evens up with Asanoyama at 10-1.