Kinbozan (金峰山)

Always Regrettable Predictions: Haru XL Edition

Josh K Abi (阿炎), Asanoyama (朝乃山), Atamifuji (熱海富士), Churanoumi (美ノ海), Daiamami (大奄美), Daieisho (大栄翔), Endo (遠藤), Gonoyama, Haru Basho 2023, Hiradoumi (平戸海), Hokutōfuji (北勝富士), Hoshoryu, Ichiyamamoto (一山本), Kinbozan (金峰山), Kirishima, Kitanowaka (北の若), Kotonowaka, Kotoshoho, Meisei, Midorifuji, Mitakeumi(御嶽海), Myogiryu (妙義龍), Nishikifuji (錦富士), Nishikigi, Oho (王鵬), Onosato (大の里), Roga (狼雅), Ryuden (竜電), Sadanoumi (佐田の海), Shimazuumi (島津海), Shonannoumi, Shōdai (正代直也), Takakeishō (貴景勝), Takanosho, Takayasu (高安), Takerufuji (尊富士), Tamawashi (玉鷲), Terunofuji (照ノ富士), Tobizaru, Tsurugisho, Ura (宇良), Wakamotoharu (若元春), Ōnoshō (阿武咲)

The Kyokai’s delivered us a wonderful banzuke, lksumo has explained its relation to the Crystal Ball and now the countdown to sumo begins. Enough of this scandalous talk, how about some of our Tachiai Always Regrettable Predictions™ in literary format?

Y Terunofuji (last result: 13-2, yusho): That was a big yusho for the Yokozuna. I think he bought himself – and the sport – quite a bit of time with his results at the Hatsu basho. It was a very confident performance and quite a few of the wins didn’t appear to even need max effort, which is critical for him. Remember those idiots grumbling a few years ago about all of the “part time Yokozuna?” You should be careful what you wish for, we used to have four and now we’re lucky to have one part time Yokozuna. He is never fully fit, and I don’t think he’s going to need to finish this basho if he starts it. But he’s still – for now – the best. Prediction: Kyujo

O1E Kirishima (11-4): I’ve written recently that Kirishima’s hatsu could have gone a very different way and altered the immediate future of the sport entirely. It didn’t, but it’s a credit to him that, on a rope run, he put up a very competent performance over 15 days. I think he’s in contention this time until the end as well, although it’s not going to get any easier. This is his last tournament under the current shisho before he moves stables, and he will want to punctuate it with Yusho number 3. I think he will get it, with some bumps along the way. Prediction: 13-2 Yusho (or 12-3 and a playoff win).

O1W Hoshoryu (10-4-1): I think he was wise to withdraw following his injury in the last tournament once it was clear he couldn’t win it, having already been safely kachi-koshi. The injury will be a question mark, and his mentals always seem to mean he lets himself down in a match or two, but he has taken another step forward and I think he is in the yusho race. Prediction: 12-3 jun yusho.

O2E Takakeisho (2-2-11, kadoban): He needs 8 wins to retain his ozeki rank and I am going to make a big non-call here and say it’s a coin flip. At his best, he is an immediate yusho contender, but his chronic injury problems are difficult to ignore. I do think he will get his 5th yusho at some point, but it won’t be here. His shisho retires in 2 years and while it’s questionable whether the Kyokai would give the keys to a 29 year old (especially in light of recent events), it wouldn’t surprise me if he hung up the mawashi at that point. In any case, the schedulers have been wont to pull Ozeki from the big matches late on if they are out of contention (“doing a Shodai”), and Takakeisho could get a similar favour (or indignity) here. Prediction: 8-7.

O2W Kotonowaka (13-2 playoff loss, promoted to Ozeki): We’ve seen big names struggle upon promotion or to come back after a yusho win, after all of the various festivities. Kotonowaka has been on a big promo tour recently, but I think not winning the yusho actually helps him here: there will have been enough fanfare, but I also think he’s probably mentally strong enough to deal with it, and he comes from a vaunted sumo family. He already made plans to dispose of his father’s shikona when he took it on Juryo promotion, saying he’d take his grandfather’s name when he became an Ozeki. Big words, and he’ll allegedly back them up in May when he takes the Kotozakura name. Some folks on Sumo Forum have been slinging around a lot of “what if he’s kadoban” chat. If he’s healthy, he won’t be. Prediction: 11-4.

SE Daieisho (9-6): He’s riding a streak of 7 consecutive kachi-koshi, all with at least 9 wins and 4 in the double digits. He has been so good and so consistent and it sometimes goes a bit under the radar. It was tough to see his Ozeki run fall apart last summer, and the heat might get turned up a bit over these next few tournaments. I think he’s replaced Tamawashi as the serial thruster of the lower-san’yaku ranks. Prediction: 9-6.

SW Wakamotoharu (10-5): He’s deservedly back in san’yaku after a very competent tournament last time out where he took several scalps (including the Yokozuna’s in order to clinch his first kinboshi). I think the level is now too high for him to mount a serious Ozeki challenge but these brothers are for real. If Kirishima opts for Arashio beya after his stable closes down, it could be a real powerhouse for the next few years with the Onami brothers and the Ozeki getting crucial torikumi advantages. Wakamotoharu was a late bloomer and all the Ozeki ahead of him are his junior but I think he’ll do OK here. Prediction: 9-6.

KE Abi (8-7): I do love Abi and on every occasion that he’s been demoted from san’yaku, he’s bounced straight back with a winning record. A lot of his wins last time were against guys having awful tournaments and at this rank, I don’t know that you can really count on that to get you through. I think he’s going to yo-yo back down to the rank-and-file. Prediction: 6-9.

KW Nishikigi (8-7): Late in his career, he’s had a real blossoming into someone who’s been able to take advantage of the dearth of upwardly mobile stars over the past few years while the top division was in stasis. That period seems to be coming to an end (despite the extremely generous “there wasn’t anyone else” promotion). When you compare his dance card from last basho with what he’s likely to encounter this time, I’d be fearful he’s headed for double digit losses, at least. But I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt due to his track record, and hold him at an even ten. Prediction: 5-10.

M1E Ura (6-9): Last tournament’s respectable record on his Komusubi debut leaves him squarely in the joi and I’m just not sure that’s the place to be right now. He will spring a shock or two and I think he will be highly motivated to get back to Komusubi or better, but I don’t think it’s going to happen here. My gut tells me to tip him for 11 losses or more. If it was anywhere other than his home basho in Osaka with the crowd 200% behind him and creating a raucous atmosphere, I do think it would be a lot uglier. Prediction: 6-9.

M1W Asanoyama (9-3-3): He was firmly in the yusho hunt last time with seven straight wins, before his loss to Tamawashi took him out of the tournament. He did well to come back and get kachi-koshi. He is starting to look sharper although it will be a worry that he’s only completed two of the five top division tournaments he’s entered since returning from suspension. Turning 30 before the basho, there’s a real danger he lost his best years and he’ll be desperate to get himself back among the honours. I wouldn’t be surprised if he notches another special prize here and he also seems like a good candidate to beat the Yokozuna early in the basho, but I don’t fancy him for the yusho. Prediction: 10-5.

M2E Atamifuji (6-9): Three straight 11 win tournaments were always going to be tough to follow up, especially for someone making such a big jump forward having never previously competed higher than M8. A 6 win performance really isn’t all that bad. I think he’ll go one better this time as he acclimates. Prediction: 7-8.

M2W Meisei (9-6): It feels like he’s been established at this level for a while now, and his true talent level is much higher than where he fought the previous basho. I like his style of sumo a lot, I think the danger when looking at where he can go from here is that he has been passed along the way by a handful of top talents. He’s another one whose career, to me, reads Myogiryu: similar style of sumo, will probably bother the san’yaku ranks on occasion until he gets into his mid 30s. I’ll back him for a narrow KK here. Prediction: 8-7.

M3E Oho (10-5): He’s just so inconsistent. At first we thought maybe he’ll be a rival for Hoshoryu as they came up together, then maybe Kotonowaka as he was coming up. When I originally wrote this I thought it looked like maybe Hokuseiho would the guy who settles in for a long career of bouts against him in the rank and file, so he’ll have to find another rival again. Oho reached the top division early enough that he should easily qualify for an elder share and in 15 years we may all be talking about how exciting it is that he’s reviving his grandfather’s stable. But I wouldn’t want to be him in the joi right now. None of his previous trips above M10 ended with winning records and he never even faced san’yaku guys in those tournaments. He won’t be able to avoid it this time, and if he outperforms this score by any number of wins it’ll be a real credit to him. Prediction: 3-12.

M3W Takanosho (10-5): He turns 30 later this year, but he’s still good enough on his day that it’s staggering to think he’s been in the lower half of the rank and file for much of the last 18 months. One big issue is his inconsistency, which has long been a factor, and even more so after the 2022 injury that knocked him out of the joi after a decent run in the division’s upper reaches. His game planning also seems to be a bit faulty, as evidenced by the bout against Hoshoryu in the last basho where his tachiai gift wrapped the Ozeki one of his signature throws. He does “his brand of sumo” to a fault, even when he won’t beat a better opponent strength to strength. He probably also suffers from having his main training partner in the stable unavailable for long stretches of time due to the Ozeki’s own injury woes. Saying all of that, I think Takanosho will more or less get the job done – but it could go horribly wrong. Prediction: An 8-7 that could just as easily be a 4-11.

M4E Tobizaru (7-8): The worst thing for Tobizaru is probably that he’s not got a demotion here. Don’t get me wrong, he’s definitely shown he’s capable of producing the goods at this level, but I just think the upper tiers of the division are healthier now than they were when he was taking scalps from a listless Ichinojo and Mitakeumi in san’yaku back in 2022. Since he first reached the joi he’s been remarkably consistent, but I think he’s due a clanger and it’s coming this time. Prediction: 5-10.

M4W Hiradoumi (8-7): He’s still only 23 and finding his way. I really like his style of sumo, it’s classic Sakaigawa-beya sumo, fast tachiai, in and under the opponent’s arms. We’ve seen it from Goeido and Myogiryu and Sadanoumi and now Hiradoumi. At his age, I think he can probably shoot to replicate Myogiryu’s career. He might just about hold serve this time as long as he doesn’t crumble if and when he drops bouts against the top, top opponents. Prediction: 7-8.

M5E Midorifuji (5-10): The question mark here is over how many matches he gets sucked into against the big guns. He’s shown he can beat absolutely anyone on his day, and he’s not a one trick pony although everyone does know his signature move. He’s started poorly in four of the last five tournaments, and when you’re in the top half it’s hard to see past that. Prediction: 6-9.

M5W Onosato (11-4): It was as good of a debut basho as he reasonably could have hoped for last time, in yusho contention but for his run-ins with the big dogs in week two when his inexperience showed. To be totally honest, I don’t think he’s looked absolutely amazing in any of his basho so far, but he has continued to get better. Haters seem to think he’s the next Ichinojo, dreamers think he’s the next dai-Yokozuna. The truth is probably somewhere in between. Prediction: 10-5.

M6E Tsurugisho (9-6): Whatever you say about him, you can’t deny he’s a fighter. With maybe one good leg, the big man has shown a variety of skills to overcome his physical limitations and get the job done. Remember: this isn’t survival of the fittest, it’s survival of the fit enough. That all being said, he’s gone north of M10 twice in his career and has 20 losses to show for it, and I think that will be at least 30 after this basho at his new career high rank. Prediction: 5-10.

M6W Gonoyama (5-10): By his standards you’d say it was an awful tournament in January, but the truth is that he’d been slowing down with each tournament and clearly it has been a challenge to adjust to life in the joi. I think he’s very, very good and could be a star but it might take another year or so until he’s in his prime. He’s 3 for 3 on kachi-koshi in his hometown basho and I think he’ll do it again, just. Prediction: 8-7.

M7E Kinbozan (7-8): The last ten months haven’t been especially kind to the Kazakhstani, with most of his wins coming against those ranked lower than him. He should be able to mostly avoid the big hitters this time out. There’s something just a bit awkward about his sumo right now, he hasn’t been a great watch. Prediction: 8-7.

M7W Tamawashi (8-7): The iron man just continues to do what he does. It’s been a couple years since that magical 2022 where he notched a flurry of kinboshi and a yusho. I still don’t think the Yokozuna will be keen to see the 39 year old again soon, but I think that won’t happen for a while yet unless he puts on another yusho challenge from the lower reaches of the division this year. It’s been almost six years since he put together three consecutive winning tournaments, and I bet that stretch will continue, if only just. Prediction: 7-8.

M8E Onosho (10-5): Here’s a guy who can have an absolutely tragic score and still look pretty good, or put up double digit wins without looking like he got out of first gear. Apart from Kotoshoho, it was only the absolute top guys who put dirt on him last time (including a hilariously naive loss to the Yokozuna). It’s very rare for him to notch back to back kachi-koshi but I probably have too much faith. Prediction: 9-6.

M8W Takayasu (2-4-9): By and large, he starts pretty well in tournaments and then the wheels come off in the second week, either due to stamina and injury or the increase in competition. I’d back him for a decent tournament if he’s good enough to get through 15 days. He’s 34 but he’s still good enough for this level. Prediction: 10-5.

M9E Hokutofuji (4-5-6): Like Takayasu, he’s one where if he’s fit, he’s just too good for the lower half of the division, even as he’s now almost 32. There’s a little more competition for places now though, so I do question whether he can properly assert himself now that makuuchi is slightly healthier than it has been the last few years. Prediction: 9-6.

M9W Kotoshoho (9-6): He’s still fairly young at 24 but needless to say, things have not worked out quite the way we envisioned when he rocketed to the top of the division after his debut. It’s possible he went too fast too soon as – fitness aside – he never really seems to have recovered in terms of form since that brutal 2-13 three years ago. He’s got some super training partners in the heya and his brother is on the way, but it’s hard for me to buy the upside right now. Prediction: 8-7.

M10E Shodai (4-11): Only Shodai could simultaneously grab a kinboshi off the champion and also put in a performance so bad that he’s at one of the three lowest ranks of his entire top division career. He can’t be happy to be at this level, but the last 18 months have been tragic and he’ll do well to stop the rot. I think he will, temporarily. He’s never had a make-koshi when ranked below Maegashira 5 so it would be absolutely shocking for him not to turn things around in Osaka. Prediction: 9-6.

M10W Mitakeumi (6-9): Two former Ozeki at Maegashira 10. Some days he still has it, but when he hasn’t got it, he looks really awful. There is no “if he gets healthy,” stage of his career to follow: this is about how he manages his injuries on the decline. He’s put up two winning tournaments in the past two years, but I do think he’ll get a third here. Prediction: 9-6.

M11E Ichiyamamoto (5-10): In one sense it’s mission complete as we finally saw the space-time continuum ripped apart by his match against Abi. He’s never had a kachi-koshi above M14 in his thirteen top division tournaments and I don’t think he gets one in the fourteenth. Prediction: 6-9.

M11W Sadanoumi (6-9): Somehow, this is his 51st basho in the top division and so he only needs to hang on for another year and a half to qualify to open his own heya. Whether he has the backing for that is another question, but it has been a remarkable late career resurgence from a guy who spent most of his career in the lower reaches of the division. Of course, much of that run across 2022 and early 2023 is probably also attributable to the drop in quality in the division in that period, but you can only beat what’s in front of you. He’ll be 37 when Natsu approaches but he can still do a job here if – and it’s a big if – he manages his fitness. Prediction: 8-7.

M12E Shonannoumi (4-11): He took an absolute beating in Tokyo and a lot of the losses were racked up against lower ranking opponents. That’s three make-koshi in four top division basho and I think he’s going to get another one. Prediction: 7-8.

M12W Shimazuumi (9-6) – The story of his career has mostly been solid, steady, slow progress, and he looked impressive enough in his debut basho. The competition this time out might be a bit too steep. Prediction: 6-9.

M13E Ryuden (3-12): He’s been all over the place in terms of his top division performances since his return from bad boy status. He’s just so inconsistent, and when he gets on a bad run you ask when it’s ever going to end. Equally, when he’s on, he’s one of the most tenacious fighters you’ll see in sumo. But I think he’s lost a bit of that spark. I think he’s in a Darwin match on Day 15: it could go either way but I’m calling tails. Prediction: 7-8.

M13W Churanoumi (7-8): He looked fairly assured in the first weeks of his two top division basho, but faded a bit in the second week of both. He had a good 2023, but based on what I’d seen of him in Juryo it’s hard to be totally convinced. He could be in trouble. Prediction: 5-10.

M14E Nishikifuji (10-5 at J2): He made a promising enough start to his top division career but then the wheels absolutely fell off. He stopped the rot in a Juryo division he clearly doesn’t want any part of. I don’t think he gets a kachi-koshi, but I do think he’ll get a result that keeps him up for another go. Prediction: 7-8.

M14W Kitanowaka (10-5 at J3): He certainly has his fans as I saw in person at Kokugikan in January, although I also see a guy who is very talented but hasn’t quite been able to put it all together. He could well reach san’yaku before his boss Hakkaku retires in a few years, but I think it’s a gradual process. His most common score in Juryo was 8-7 and that feels about right here. In any case, I think he’ll stay up. Prediction: 8-7.

M15E Myogiryu (5-10): He had a dip to Juryo a few years ago, but by and large, anytime he’s really been in danger he’s been able to pull out a positive result to sustain him for 6 more months, until he needs another one. Always a fan favourite and even more so in front of his “home” crowd, the man from Hyogo-ken actually hasn’t had a winning record in Osaka in 8 years. I’d back him to snap that streak here, maybe even on senshuraku. Prediction: 8-7.

M15W Roga (9-6 at J3): Marginal gains is a buzzword in sport these days and that seems to be the order of the day for Roga, whose rise has been steady if unspectacular since those in the biz were tipping him for big things five years ago. He still has great potential, but since his first promotion to Makushita, he has a 14-21 record in the matches after he attains kachi-koshi. That’s approaching a meaningful sample size that, to these eyes, shows a real lack of killer instinct and raises a question mark over whether he could ever win a yusho at any level. I think it’s a coin flip here as to whether he gets the wins he needs to stay up. Prediction: 7-8.

M16E Endo (5-10): No one will be cheering louder for him than the friendly Tenkaiho, whose seat in the Kyokai (thought to be on loan from Endo) must be feeling rather warm, as Endo spent the last basho dancing around the trap door. A veteran of precisely four basho outside the top division in his entire career, it seems potentially unlikely that the 33 year old would want to mess around outside of the big stage (especially as he’s already met the requirements to open his own stable some day). He did just about enough to keep himself up last time, but two consecutive double-digit make-koshi has him in a dangerous spot and his sumo has looked at times listless. I don’t think this is going to be a comfortable ride but I think he’ll do enough. Prediction: 8-7.

M16W Daiamami (8-7 at J1): He’s spent 11 tournaments in the top division, posted losing records in 8 of them and double digit losses or the equivalent in 5 of those. The eye test both recently and over the longer term doesn’t convince me either. If I’m going to bet on these other guys to stay up, someone needs to go back down. Prediction: 4-11.

M17E Takerufuji (13-2 Yusho at J10): He’s been more or less dominant to this point with a career record of 56-8. This is going to be the biggest one-basho leap – in terms of opponent quality – of his career to-date. This might be some bias based on the Isegahama-beya track record, but he hasn’t been overawed or overmatched at any level yet and I’m going to tip him for a sansho. Prediction: 10-5.

Aki Day 15 Highlights

Bruce H Abi (阿炎), Aki 2023, Aoiyama, Asanoyama (朝乃山), Atamifuji (熱海富士), Chiyoshoma, Daieisho (大栄翔), Daishoho, Endo (遠藤), Gonoyama, Hiradoumi (平戸海), Hokuseiho (北青鵬), Hokutōfuji (北勝富士), Hoshoryu, Kagayaki (輝), Kinbozan (金峰山), Kirishima, Kotoeko, Kotonowaka, Kotoshoho, Meisei, Midorifuji, Mitakeumi(御嶽海), Myogiryu (妙義龍), Nishikifuji (錦富士), Nishikigi, Oho (王鵬), Ryuden (竜電), Sadanoumi (佐田の海), Shonannoumi, Shōdai (正代直也), Takakeishō (貴景勝), Takanosho, Takarafuji (宝富士), Takayasu (高安), Tamawashi (玉鷲), Tobizaru, Tsurugisho, Ura (宇良), Wakamotoharu (若元春), Ōnoshō (阿武咲)

The yusho race ends with a playoff, and a solid day of sumo action. For those of you who read the preview, it seems Asanoyama’s kami did manage to make it back to the Kokugikan in time, but was limping and had a black eye.

The playoff ended with a henka, which was a big disappointment to me. I am sure the YDC will have some grumpy words about that soon enough, as they are quick to criticize such developments. The 2023 Aki basho was indeed a “Wacky Aki” with a Maegashira 15, in his second posting to the top division, achieving a yusho dotten result. Granted, the yusho was a stinky 11-4 win, but someone had to take home the cup.

Congratulations to Takakeisho for your 4th Emperor’s Cup, and for setting the stage to possibly reach Yokozuna by the new year.

Highlight Matches

Nishikifuji defeats Mitakeumi – Not sure where the Mitakeumi from the prior 14 days was today, but he just sort of went “sack of potatoes” and let Nishikifuji have the yorikiri. Nishikifuji with a final day win ends the tournament 5-10.

Endo defeats Kotoshoho – Endo worked very hard to make something happen with that right hand inside, and points to Kotoshoho for shutting it down each and every time. But Endo being Endo, he decided his left hand could do the job too, and flattened Kotoshoho with a kirikaeshi. Nice to see that move, and well executed to boot. Endo finishes Aki 9-6.

Myogiryu defeats Kinbozan – Veteran Myogiryu scores a final day win by over powering Kinbozan in a rapid fight that sent the Kinbozan into one of the shimpan. Not the last shimpan to get a visitor today. Myogiryu’s final record is 10-5 winning by yoritaoshi.

Midorifuji defeats Aoiyama – I had hoped for one last katasukashi, and Midorifuji delivered. I am surprised that Aoiyama did not do more to prevent it. The match was over in a moment, with Midorifuji finishing 10-5, and Aoiyama at real risk of being relegated to Juryo for the first time since 2018

Kagayaki defeats Oho – Kagayaki assumes and maintains such poor body position through this whole match, it’s a shame that Oho did not just slap him down. In spite of Kagayaki’s awkward stumbling sumo today, he manages to apply an oshidashi and take the match. Both men finish Aki 5-10.

Chiyoshoma defeats Ryuden – No farewell henka from Chiyoshoma, rather a smooth and well executed kotenage at the third step. Actually nicely done. Chiyoshoma boards the Juryo barge of the Damned with a 3-12.

Onosho defeats Tsurugisho – Onosho only loses his matches against Tsurugisho when Onosho gets too far forward. It looked like Tsurugisho was going to try to set that up, but Tsurugisho’s switch from forward to back hit a misstep, and Onosho drove him out. Onosho finishes Aki 9-6.

Sadanoumi defeats Shonannoumi – First of the Darwin matches goes to Sadanoumi, who landed a right hand frontal mawashi grip at the tachiai, and had Shonannoumi out three steps later. Sadanoumi kachi-koshi at 8-7 for a final score, Shonannoumi make-koshi at 7-8.

Takanosho defeats Daishoho – Daishoho gets a big charge forward, tries a pull hands the match to Takanosho. Sort of sad after that solid tachiai. Takanosho’s final score for Aki is 6-9.

Hiradoumi defeats Tamawashi – Hiradoumi achieved excellent hand placement, including a hazu-oshi to finish pushing Tamawashi out of the ring. Hiradoumi’s final score for Aki 6-9. Tamawashi limped through the basho to 2-13, but kept his spotless attendance record.

Shodai defeats Takarafuji – Shodai actually showed good sumo today, boxing in Takarafuji and never really letting him get into an active defense mode. I think Takarafuji thought Shodai was going to go for a yorikiri, but pivoted into an uwatenage. The second Darwin match ends with Shodai kachi-koshi at 8-7, Takarafuji make-koshi at 7-8.

Asanoyama defeats Atamifuji – The big match to start the second half, Asanoyama had his right hand inside before the second step, and at that point it was all over except the final step over the bales. Atamifuji is young, he’s inexperienced, and has acres of talent. A future version of himself will have that left hand ottsuke he needed today to win this match. He ends Aki with a blistering 11-4, and will face someone in a playoff for the yusho.

Meisei defeats Kotoeko – Kotoeko really had no offense in this match, and Meisei was able to box him in and run him out. Good forward pressure by Meisei, which was quickly converted to an oshidashi. He finishes Aki 7-8.

Abi defeats Hokutofuji – Hokutofuji’s opening nodowa is easy to predict, and we got to see Abi shut it down at the tachiai. The resulting off balance position was perfect for the hatakikomi that followed a moment later, dropping Hokutofuji to the clay. Abi finishes Aki with a 9-6 record.

Gonoyama defeats Tobizaru – I love that Gonoyama was able to finish the basho with a strong win. Sadly it seems Tobizaru’s exit from the ring injured one of the shimpan, who had to be helped out of the venue. I expect we are going to see a lot more good sumo from Gonoyama in the next year. He ends Aki 9-6.

Ura defeats Nishikigi – Ura goes to the nodowa again today, and it likewise seems to work with massive effect, setting Nishikigi up for an immediate tottari that drops him to the clay. Thus ends Nishikigi’s magical mystery tour of the san’yaku at 5-10, while Ura finishes Aki at 9-6.

Kotonowaka defeats Wakamotoharu – A delightful match as the two Sekiwake battle it out. Wakamotoharu had the better grip to start, and maintained it throughout the match. The final exchange was each man trying to lift the other out, with Kotonowaka proving to be the stronger, and scoring a final day win by yoritaoshi. Both end Aki 9-6.

Hoshoryu defeats Hokuseiho – Hoshoryu manages to reach kachi-koshi on the final day by toppling the Miyagino giant in a slow motion watashikomi. Had I been at the Kokugikan, I would have shouted “TIMBEERRRRR!”. Hoshoryu needs to get his sumo in working order, as beating an M11 on the final day for your kachi-koshi is not how this is supposed to work. But he did get the job done. He ends Aki 8-7.

Takakeisho defeats Daieisho – Takakeisho always beats Daieisho, but Daieisho gave him a great fight. Once Takakeisho is able to disrupt Daieisho’s attack pattern, he gets Daieisho turned and shoves him out by okuridashi. Takakeisho ends Aki 11-4 and qualifies for the yusho playoff.

Kirishima defeats Takayasu – Takayasu’s sumo looked good today, he just did not have the balance to maintain his footing when Kirishima was able to land lateral thrusts. I note that Kirishima also kept his feet closer to the clay, where we saw Takayasu with more vertical steps. Once Takayasu was off balance, a thrust to the side finished him by hikiotoshi, giving Kirishima a final day win and a score of 9-6.

Yusho Playoff

Takakeisho defeats Atamifuji – Takakeisho henka! Not sure that was what anyone was hoping for, and it kind of left a foul odor to end this tournament. But he did win it in somewhat inglorious style. Perhaps he was hurt in that match with Daieisho. We will likely never know. Takakeisho wins his 4th title, and sets up his second chance at Yokozuna this year.

With that, dear readers, we end our daily coverage of the Aki basho for 2023. It has been a treat and a pleasure to bring you previews and highlights this September. Please follow Tachiai on the run up to the final basho of the year, coming in November. I will have a few things to say about sumo, it’s fans and this site before I sign off in the coming days. Thank you for spending Aki with us, we appreciate all of you who take the time to read our site, and to comment on our content. See you again soon!

Aki Day 15 Preview

Bruce H Abi (阿炎), Aki 2023, Aoiyama, Asanoyama (朝乃山), Atamifuji (熱海富士), Chiyoshoma, Daieisho (大栄翔), Daishoho, Endo (遠藤), Gonoyama, Hiradoumi (平戸海), Hokuseiho (北青鵬), Hokutōfuji (北勝富士), Hoshoryu, Kagayaki (輝), Kinbozan (金峰山), Kirishima, Kotoeko, Kotonowaka, Kotoshoho, Meisei, Midorifuji, Mitakeumi(御嶽海), Myogiryu (妙義龍), Nishikifuji (錦富士), Nishikigi, Oho (王鵬), Ryuden (竜電), Sadanoumi (佐田の海), Shonannoumi, Shōdai (正代直也), Takakeishō (貴景勝), Takanosho, Takarafuji (宝富士), Takayasu (高安), Tamawashi (玉鷲), Tobizaru, Tsurugisho, Ura (宇良), Wakamotoharu (若元春), Ōnoshō (阿武咲) ,

My thanks to Tachiai blog creator Andy, who filled in for the day 14 highlights. What a day of sumo it was indeed. We are left with only 5 rikishi with 7-7 “Darwin” scores, so we get 2 head to head Darwin matches for today. Not a cornucopia that I had hoped for, but enough to underscore the zero sum nature of the sport. Of course one of the participants is Shodai, the ultimate 7-7 rikishi. I also note that Hokutofuji scored his 8th win a couple of days ago, robbing us of “The most powerful make-koshi in all of sumo”, which is sometimes his forte.

The Emperor’s Cup will be decided in the second half of today’s torikumi. Right now, Atamifuji controls his outcome. He is matched against Asanoyama, and should he win, he takes home the hardware. Sadly no balloons drop from the tsuriyane (the dohyo’s roof), but by golly, there should be!

If Asanoyama can stop navel gazing for a few minutes, he should be able to get into “that pose” and simply summon the power of the ancients to banish Atamifuji from the dohyo. But it has been years since we saw him do anything like that. Asanoyama, just go back to being the guy who was happy to be doing sumo every day, who always looked like he was having a great time no matter the outcome. That’s why you succeeded in the past.

Ok, should Asanoyama pull it off, it could be as many as 4 people battling for the cup. Including (checks notes) Hokuseiho? What fresh catnip for the Great Sumo Cat of the Kokugikan is this? Note to readers, should somehow Hokuseiho take home the cup, I will in fact eat both my own buttocks.

Aki Leaderboard

Don’t worry, my ample rear end is safe from the frying pan. Here are the possible participants, though some of them face off head to head.

Leaders: Atamifuji
Chasers: Takakeisho, Daieisho, Takayasu, Hokuseiho

Maximum case comes if Atamifuji loses to Asanoyama, then the winner of the Takakeisho vs Daieisho match will be in a playoff after regulation, plus possibly Takayasu, and maybe some pylon for the new football stadium in a mawashi named Hokuseiho.

1 Match Remains

What We Are Watching Day 15

Mitakeumi (9-5) vs Nishikifuji (4-10) – Earlier in the basho, one of the commentators on NHK remarked how far Mitakeumi had fallen that he can now be the first match of the day. It seems like a bit of a gratuitous kick in the jimmies then, and here they did it again. Most likely a Mitakeumi win, with double-digit bonus score if he does.

Kotoshoho (5-9) vs Endo (8-6) – Well, someone had to fight Kotoshoho, so Endo gets the job. Endo is already kachi-koshi, and Kotoshoho is one loss away from double digits. Can you guess what happens next? Endo has won the last two matches against Kotoshoho.

Kinbozan (9-5) vs Myogiryu (9-5) – A fight to see who gets a double digit winning record. They only have one prior match, on day 2 of Nagoya, and it went to Kinbozan by yoritaoshi. Given how well Myogiryu has been fighting, I think there is a good chance he will take this match from Kinbozan.

Midorifuji (9-5) vs Aoiyama (5-9) – Midorifuji has a 3-1 career record against the injured and faltering Aoiyama. A loss for him today would be double digits, and may send him into the queue to join the Juryo barge of the damed. One last chance for a katasukashi, served with a dollop of sour cream, I would guess.

Kagayaki (4-10) vs Oho (5-9) – Kagayaki has already stowed his akeni aboard the afore mentioned Juryo barge, and now he gets a chance to welcome Oho to the double digit loss club. Clearly Oho’s sumo is in shambles right now, and he needs a few weeks to get himself back in line. He has a 4-2 record against Kagayaki, including their most recent match: Day 1 of Natsu.

Chiyoshoma (2-12) vs Ryuden (6-8) – Chiyoshoma is Juryo bound as well, but Ryuden has a shot to soften his make-koshi to a mild 7-8 with a win today. I think the coming November banzuke will be the first time in a long time with no Kokonoe rikishi in the top division. Don’t be surprised to read stories next week of a rampaging zombie of Chiyonofuji tearing it up at the heya to whip these guys into shape.

Onosho (8-6) vs Tsurugisho (8-6) – Both kachi-koshi, both with solid performaces this tournament, and one final match to see who gets to end the month 9-6. They have a nearly even 6-7 record, with Tsurugisho winning the last 4 in a row, mostly by pull down or thrust down. Can that be any surprise when the opponent is Onosho?

Sadanoumi (7-7) vs Shonannoumi (7-7) – First of our Darwin matches, where we find out which of our S*noumi rikishi have what it takes to finish out the tournament with a kachi-koshi. They have never fought before, so this one is a wide open mystery.

Takanosho (5-9) vs Daishoho (3-11) – The captain of the Juryo barge of the damed, Daishoho, will have the opportunity to leave the top division with a win. Should he prevail against Takanosho, he would drop him to a double digit make-koshi loss. He has a 7-3 career record against Takanosho, but may be too banged up right now for that to matter.

Hiradoumi (5-9) vs Tamawashi (2-12) – Regardless of how this one ends, just finishing the tournament will be an achievement for Tamawasih. Fifteen days of what may have been painful sumo, he can finally focus on getting his body ready for Kyushu. He has beaten Hiradoumi in both their prior matches, but may not be physically able to extend that to 3-0 today.

Shodai (7-7) vs Takarafuji (7-7) – The second of our Darwin matches, and it’s not looking good for Takarafuji. He has only won 3 times in 20 matches against Shodai, who seems to really enjoy using the “Wall of Daikon” on Takarafuji. Winner is kachi-koshi, loser is make-koshi.

Atamifuji (11-3) vs Asanoyama (8-6) – Hopefully you took the half time break to bring an entire bottle of sake over to where you are watching sumo, as this is where it gets crazy. First ever match between yusho race leader Atamifuji, and former Ozeki Asanoyama. Trust me when I say that Asanoyama has already figured out 5 different ways he can lose this match, and is worried to death about all of them. The kami that propelled him to Ozeki is feeling abandoned, and is down at the spiritual izakaya black out drunk, picking fights with the local Sumida-ku yokai, waiting for the “Seven Wonders of Honjo” to show up. Will the kami get its ass handed to it by “The Procession of the Tanuki“? or will it make it to the Kokugikan to give Asanoyama the fighting energy he needs to open this yusho race wide?

Kotoeko (6-8) vs Meisei (6-8) – Both are already make-koshi, so this is to see who gets the more gentle slide down the banzuke for November. Kotoeko holds an 11-6 career advantage, though I think Meisei has been fighting much better this month.

Hokutofuji (8-6) vs Abi (8-6) – Both men have 8 wins and are already kachi-koshi. But strongly feel the Abi needs to have a henka revenge satisfying loss before this basho is over, and who better to supply that than Hokutofuji? Unfortunately the career record of 8-5 favors Abi, so this may not come to pass.

Gonoyama (8-6) vs Tobizaru (6-8) – Another first ever match for shin-Goeido, who has done a solid job by reaching kachi-koshi for his first visit to the joi-jin. If he can stay healthy, he’s going to be one to watch. Sadly, Tobizaru lost a couple of matches he could have won, and will have to settle with at least 8 losses for September. He had key wins against Takakeisho and Hoshoryu, and I am looking forward to him continuing to harass the top rankers in Kyushu.

Nishikigi (5-9) vs Ura (8-6) – We wave a fond farewell to one of sumo’s nice guys, who managed to finally be ranked in the san’yaku rather late in his career. By the second week, everyone had a solution for his battle hug, and he was no longer a threat. He may lose this match today, as Ura tends to make Nishikigi the unfortunate target of “tug and pull” sumo. Ura had a 5-2 career advantage.

Kotonowaka (8-6) vs Wakamotoharu (9-5) – Both of them are kachi-koshi, both of them are going to ranked in the exact same spot for November, so this is just for the joy of sumo. I would like to see Wakamotoharu hit double digits and start an Ozeki run, but Kotonowaka leads the series 6-4.

Hokuseiho (10-4) vs Hoshoryu (7-7) – Imagine the final day torikumi comes out, and you need one more win to save face and not be kadoban your first tournament as an Ozeki. Your opponet is ranked Maegashira 11, awesome! Your opponent works as a structural component of one of TEPCO’s largest hydro-electoral projects in the off-season, damn! They have one prior match, Natsu day 12 where Hoshoryu won by okuridashi. I don’t think there is a huge chance that Hokuseiho will win this one, but if he does, make sure you have that bottle of sake close at hand.

Daieisho (10-4) vs Takakeisho (10-4) – One of these two gets to challenge for the cup if Asanoyama can stop feeling sorry for his self and beat up the newbie. Oh blast, what are the odds of that? Anyhow, what a great idea to have these two friends battle it out for a chance to compete for the cup. Both are 10-4, but Takakeisho has a 17-6 career lead, plus he has been fighting well, plus plus, he’s the “Grand Tadpole” ’nuff said.

Kirishima (8-6) vs Takayasu (10-4) – The final match of the tournament will feature Takayasu maybe just maybe having a narrow shot at also competing for the yusho if Asanoyama can do what he needs to do. As a long suffering fan of sumo’s most hirsute top division fighter, I know full well not to expect much, especially if his back is once again boogered up (which rumors in the Japanese press seem to indciate). Frankly I am just happy that Kirishima has cleared kadoban, the rest of bonus.

Aki Day 14 Preview

Bruce H Abi (阿炎), Aki 2023, Aoiyama, Asanoyama (朝乃山), Atamifuji (熱海富士), Chiyoshoma, Daieisho (大栄翔), Daishoho, Endo (遠藤), Gonoyama, Hiradoumi (平戸海), Hokuseiho (北青鵬), Hokutōfuji (北勝富士), Hoshoryu, Kagayaki (輝), Kinbozan (金峰山), Kirishima, Kotoeko, Kotonowaka, Kotoshoho, Meisei, Midorifuji, Mitakeumi(御嶽海), Myogiryu (妙義龍), Nishikifuji (錦富士), Nishikigi, Oho (王鵬), Ryuden (竜電), Sadanoumi (佐田の海), Shonannoumi, Shōdai (正代直也), Takakeishō (貴景勝), Takanosho, Takarafuji (宝富士), Takayasu (高安), Tamawashi (玉鷲), Tobizaru, Tsurugisho, Ura (宇良), Wakamotoharu (若元春), Ōnoshō (阿武咲)

It’s time to look ahead to the final weekend. With two days to go, we are about to decide who gets the Emperor’s Cup and takes home the yusho. Will it be a 4th yusho for Ozeki Takakeisho? A Cinderella story win for Maegashira 15 Atamifuji, taking the cup in his first top division tournament after winning the Juryo yusho in July? Or will we get a surprise on the final day, such as a come from behind victory by perennial runner-up Takayasu? I give credit to the schedulers, most of these possibilities are surprisingly plausible right now, but the final form will be evident by the end of day 14’s action.

It also looks like we could have a brace of Darwin matches loaded up and ready to go, with 11 rikishi having 7-6 / 6-7 scores prior to Saturday’s action on the dohyo.

Aki Leaderboard

Both leaders have difficult matches today, Takayasu having the easiest route of the chasers. We can be certain now that the yusho winning score will be no higher than 12-3, and possibly even 11-4.

Leaders: Atamifuji, Takakeisho
Chasers: Daieisho, Takayasu, Kinbozan, Hokuseiho

2 Matches Remain

What We Are Watching Day 14

Myogiryu (8-5) vs Chiyoshoma (2-11) – I am going to guess this one is to help donate a win to Myogiryu for some reason, as Chiyoshoma is ready for dry dock to have the sumo equivalent of his barnacles scraped off. They have a close 7-8 career record, but Chiyoshoma is in no condition to put up too much of a fight .

Takarafuji (6-7) vs Kagayaki (4-9) – Takarafuji needs to win today in order to see if he can get a final win on Sunday. Should he best the flagging Kagayaki, he will end the day at 7-7 and be eligible for a Darwin match on Sunday. they share a 13-7 career record.

Tsurugisho (8-5) vs Hokuseiho (9-4) – Both are already kachi-koshi, they share an even 1-1 match history, and this is really about seeing who ranks where in November. Tsurugisho has lost the last 2 in a row, Hokuseiho has now won 7 straight.

Midorifuji (8-5) vs Daishoho (3-10) – Two people get to fight Daishoho on his way out the door back to Juryo, and Midorifuji is one of them. This is really not much of a contest today, in spite of their even 3-3 career match record.

Kotoeko (6-7) vs Aoiyama (4-9) – This may look like another low interest match, but I think what we have here is Aoiyama trying to get another win to save his spot somewhere at the bottom of the top division November banzuke. Against that we have Kotoeko who needs 2 more wins on the final 2 days to reach kachi-koshi. They share a 7-7 career record, and I think it will all come down to Aoiyama being able to find enough endurance to work through the pain to deliver power forward.

Nishikifuji (4-9) vs Hiradoumi (4-9) – Both have matching make-koshi 4-9 records, and both are facing substantial demotions for November. They have each won a single match against the other this year.

Kotoshoho (5-8) vs Ryuden (5-8) – Another pair with matching losing records, and another effort to sort them out for the November banzuke. I think for September, Ryuden is fighting better than Kotoshoho, so I give him an edge today.

Endo (8-5) vs Shonannoumi (6-7) – Shonannoumi lost their only prior match, but he needs to find a win today or face make-koshi. Shonannoumi’s ranked high enough he is at no risk of being relegated back to Juryo, but it’s still better to get your 8 wins than not. Their prior match was day 3 of Nagoya, where Endo won by yorikiri.

Takanosho (5-8) vs Sadanoumi (6-7) – Takanosho is already make-koshi, and Sadanoumi needs to win his final 2 to reach 8. They have an 11 match history that favors Sadanoumi 7-4, with Sadanoumi winning the last 4 in a row – going back to Osaka 2022.

Oho (4-9) vs Tamawashi (2-11) – I will defer to lksumo’s prognosis, but I am going to guess that with 2 wins, Tamawashi is out of any consideration for demotion to Juryo. But I would still be quite interested to see if he can summon enough energy to defeat the already make-koshi Oho today. Their only prior match was day 3 of Nagoya, and went to Tamawashi by hatakikomi.

Abi (8-5) vs Atamifuji (10-3) – I would label this a tough match for Atamifuji. I know he fought Ichiyamamoto once, at Kyushu last year, and lost on day 2 by hatakikomi, which is useful if we consider Ichiyamamoto a miniature Abi (which we should). I also worry that his losses facing the “big guys” has dented his fighting spirit, and he’s lost some of the confidence we say up to day 10. Fingers crossed we see something big from Atamifuji today.

Shodai (6-7) vs Asanoyama (8-5) – Asanoyama is safely kachi-koshi, and I am hoping that we get to see some big time cartoon sumo out of Shodai today. They have a 12 match history that favors Asanoyama 8-4, with Asanoyama taking the last 4 in a row. Don’t dismiss this one just because it’s Shodai.

Hokutofuji (8-5) vs Ura (7-6) – Hokutofuji played the expert spoiler on day 13, knocking Takayasu out of immediate contention for the cup. Now a tough match for him. he has faced Ura 12 times, and only won twice. We know Hokutofuji loves his nodowa, maybe we will get to see Ura unleash his “death grip” again today in response? I can only hope. An Ura win today would be kachi-koshi for him.

Gonoyama (7-6) vs Meisei (6-7) – In the day 13 highlights, I mentioned that the should give Gonoyama a “gimmie” match to make sure he does not need to beat san’yaku to make kachi-koshi. Maybe this counts? Meisei is M1W, maybe that’s good enough. A Gonoyama win today would be kachi-koshi for him, and make-koshi for Meisei. A Meisei win and they are both 7-7 and eligible for a Darwin match on Sunday.

Nishikigi (5-8) vs Mitakeumi (8-5) – The two have mirror scores, and we know that with his make-koshi, Nishikigi will be exiting the named ranks. Thus ends his second “magical mystery tour”, and I must say I enjoyed it quite a bit. A late bloomer, but he did indeed bloom well. Mitakeumi holds a 6-3 career lead, and given the quality of his sumo this September, should be able to dispatch Nishikigi today.

Takayasu (9-4) vs Tobizaru (6-7) – My congratulations to the schedulers for putting so many consequences into today’s matches. It gives everyone a lot to cheer for, and the rikishi a lot to fight for. Takayasu needs a win to keep any spark of vying for the cup alive, Tobizaru needs a win to avoid make-koshi. This one could be quite good as there will be a high energy clash of sumo styles for this match.

Kotonowaka (7-6) vs Kinbozan (9-4) – Kotonowaka needs to win over red-hot Kinbozan to try and reach 8 today, or face a final day starting score of 7-7. He won their only prior match, on day 13 of Natsu, by yorikiri. This one is likewise a potentially high energy match.

Onosho (8-5) vs Wakamotoharu (8-5) – Both are already kachi-koshi, and with Daieisho holding on to Sekiwake East, this is really only about Onosho’s rank in November. He’s won two of their 3 prior matches, with an oshidashi on day 10 of Nagoya being their most recent fight.

Kirishima (8-5) vs Daieisho (9-4) – There is not really anything other than a white star and a pile of kensho on the line for this match, but maybe that’s enough. Kirishima has cleared kadoban, and may want to run up the score. They have a 8-6 career record on the clay, with Kirishima taking the last 4 in a row.

Hoshoryu (6-7) vs Takakeisho (10-3) – Some high stakes for the final match of the day, well done schedulers! Hoshoryu needs a win to avoid the loss of face that comes from going kadoban your first tournament as an Ozeki. Takakeisho needs a win to move a step closer to his 4th yusho. He has a 7-2 career record against Hoshoryu, who will likely pin his hopes for a win by getting a hold on Takakeisho’s mawashi. Takakeisho has won the last 2 in a row.