Promotion/Demotion Picture, Day 11

lksumo Aki Basho 2022

Ozeki Watch

Kadoban Ozeki Takakeisho (7-4) is within a win of saving his rank. Tomorrow he faces the main promotion contender, Sekiwake Kiribayama (9-2), who is likewise one win away from the promotion target he was set. Daieisho (7-4), who entered the tournament with 22 wins in his previous two basho, could still reach the 11 wins he needs to total 33 over 3, but he must win out, and it’s not clear in his case that 33 would be enough. Wakamotoharu (8-3) and Hoshoryu (7-4) will be looking to post double-digit totals to keep their runs going into July.

San’yaku

All four Sekiwake have done enough to remain in san’yaku, and barring a complete collapse down the stretch by Daieisho and Hoshoryu, should at the very least hold their ranks. But we might be looking for some new Komusubi, with absent Wakatakakage guaranteed to fall deep into the rank and file, while Kotonowaka and Shodai, both 5-6, can only afford a single loss apiece from here on out. At the moment, M6e Meisei (8-3) and M1e Abi (5-6) lead the potential promotion queue; they are matched up tomorrow.

Makuuchi Men in Danger

M13w Ichinojo has retired. Ms15e Ichiyamamoto (3-8) must win out to avoid a demotable score. Ms16e Mitoryu (4-7) and M17e Kagayaki (5-6) each need 3 wins for safety. While a few others (including absent 1-9-1 M5w Kotoshoho) are not completely out of the woods yet, I don’t expect more than four slots to open.

Juryo Promotion Contenders

At the moment, we have only one open slot in the top division, but at least two very strong promotion cases. J1e Gonoyama (10-1), who showed no ill effects from yesterday’s bout and extended his record against J8w Ochiai (10-1) to 2-0, is a lock. J1w Shonannoumi (9-2) will be hard to deny, though whose place he would take is an open question. Ochiai and J3e Bushozan (7-4) still need a couple of wins apiece to mount a real promotion challenge, and even then their chances will depend on how the endangered men in Makuuchi fare the rest of the way. Also on the outskirts of the promotion picture are J4w Roga (7-4), J8e Atamifuji (9-2), and J4e Oshoma (6-5).

Juryo Men in Danger

J5e Tochinoshin has retired. His intai and Ichinojo’s create two openings in the second division. Winless veteran J9w Chiyonokuni (0-10-2), who may be next on the intai watch, has pulled out, and is facing certain demotion. The other winless rikishi, J3w Enho, is also kyujo, though his higher rank holds out some hope that he could survive, depending on the number of promotion cases in Makushita. Last tournament’s lucky escapee, J14w Tsushimanada (4-6), still needs 4 more wins for safety. The others in most danger are J10e Chiyomaru (3-8), J11e Hidenoumi (4-7) and J14e Tokihayate (6-5). As for who is vying to replace them, see today’s Makushita update.

15 thoughts on “Promotion/Demotion Picture, Day 11”

  1. The question mark about Daieisho being that he didn’t start his run in san’yaku?

    I’d forgotten that in all the excitement about five theoretically possible Ozeki next basho.

    Reply

  2. I’m trying to think of people that Ichiyamamoto and Mitoryu could beat right now and I’m coming up with nothing but a blank mind. They still can win matches, Mitoryu proved that in the last basho, but this feels different for both of them. Kagayaki might yet save his rank, but we’ll see.

    Does a 1-9-5 record at M5 mean a demotion to Juryo? That feels like a steep demotion. But I guess it depends on how everyone else does over the next couple of days and the understanding that Kotoshoho wasn’t beating anyone when he was active.

    Reply

    • By the standard formula, Kotoshoho’s record would translate to J1w, so he could be demoted, but only if they need his slot for a strong promotion case.

      Reply

    • I guess mathematically he’d be M17w, so maybe not 100% safe, but they’d really have to need the slot. The only demotion from M2 I can find was when the banzuke only extended to M14e.

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      • Can U please explain the banzuke mathematics to me?
        I‘m surprised how deep Endo should fall according to U.

        Reply

        • As a rough estimate, take the difference between wins and losses, and that’s the size of the banzuke movement. So 0-15 drops you 15 ranks, though in practice it’s usually attenuated at the extremes.

          Reply

        • One good way just to get a general idea also is to do a query over at sumodb

          0 win rikishi at M2 in the 6 basho era, removing kosho-kyujo and covid-kyujo, have fallen to:

          M11, M11, J1, M14, M11, M13, M15, M14, M13

          So even in the absence of calculus driven wonkery, we can infer:

          • it’s very unlikely he will fall to Juryo
          • he’ll probably be ranked in the bottom third of the division, the midpoint is around M14/15
          • in the 9 above cases, only one of the banzukes top division ranks went to M17 or beyond, so if those rikishi weren’t demoted, their rank would of course have to be higher than M17
          • we may not have an M17 next time if there’s a new Ozeki and odd number of sanyaku
          • it shouldn’t be a surprise to see him ranked anywhere between M11 and J1, as edge cases can fall to the extremes depending on other banzuke movements (but it would probably be more of a surprise to see him ranked towards the top end of those error bars given two of the 3 M11 examples are toward the beginning of the 6 basho era when banzuke composition wasn’t quite the same)
          Reply

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