## Ozeki Watch

Kadoban Ozeki **Takakeisho** (7-4) is within a win of saving his rank. Tomorrow he faces the main promotion contender, Sekiwake **Kiribayama** (9-2), who is likewise one win away from the promotion target he was set. **Daieisho** (7-4), who entered the tournament with 22 wins in his previous two basho, could still reach the 11 wins he needs to total 33 over 3, but he must win out, and it’s not clear in his case that 33 would be enough. **Wakamotoharu** (8-3) and **Hoshoryu** (7-4) will be looking to post double-digit totals to keep their runs going into July.

## San’yaku

All four Sekiwake have done enough to remain in san’yaku, and barring a complete collapse down the stretch by Daieisho and Hoshoryu, should at the very least hold their ranks. But we might be looking for some new Komusubi, with absent **Wakatakakage** guaranteed to fall deep into the rank and file, while **Kotonowaka** and **Shodai**, both 5-6, can only afford a single loss apiece from here on out. At the moment, M6e **Meisei** (8-3) and M1e **Abi** (5-6) lead the potential promotion queue; they are matched up tomorrow.

## Makuuchi Men in Danger

M13w **Ichinojo** has retired. Ms15e **Ichiyamamoto** (3-8) must win out to avoid a demotable score. Ms16e **Mitoryu** (4-7) and M17e **Kagayaki** (5-6) each need 3 wins for safety. While a few others (including absent 1-9-1 M5w **Kotoshoho**) are not completely out of the woods yet, I don’t expect more than four slots to open.

## Juryo Promotion Contenders

At the moment, we have only one open slot in the top division, but at least two very strong promotion cases. J1e **Gonoyama** (10-1), who showed no ill effects from yesterday’s bout and extended his record against J8w **Ochiai** (10-1) to 2-0, is a lock. J1w **Shonannoumi** (9-2) will be hard to deny, though whose place he would take is an open question. Ochiai and J3e **Bushozan** (7-4) still need a couple of wins apiece to mount a real promotion challenge, and even then their chances will depend on how the endangered men in Makuuchi fare the rest of the way. Also on the outskirts of the promotion picture are J4w **Roga** (7-4), J8e **Atamifuji** (9-2), and J4e **Oshoma** (6-5).

## Juryo Men in Danger

J5e **Tochinoshin** has retired. His intai and Ichinojo’s create two openings in the second division. Winless veteran J9w **Chiyonokuni** (0-10-2), who may be next on the intai watch, has pulled out, and is facing certain demotion. The other winless rikishi, J3w **Enho**, is also kyujo, though his higher rank holds out some hope that he could survive, depending on the number of promotion cases in Makushita. Last tournament’s lucky escapee, J14w **Tsushimanada** (4-6), still needs 4 more wins for safety. The others in most danger are J10e **Chiyomaru** (3-8), J11e **Hidenoumi** (4-7) and J14e **Tokihayate** (6-5). As for who is vying to replace them, see today’s Makushita update.

The question mark about Daieisho being that he didn’t start his run in san’yaku?

I’d forgotten that in all the excitement about five theoretically possible Ozeki next basho.

Yes. Unlike Kiribayama, they didn’t state a numerical target for him and might want a bit more.

Seems like that matters if they don’t hit 33. Terunofuji started had 32 wins starting as Maegashira #1, and it wasn’t enough, even with a playoff loss and another runner-up. Of course, 8 wins at Maegashira #1 is probably the clincher. He wasn’t as impressive that first basho, and consistency is always a plus when it’s in the slightly under 33 range. Seems like there was also a bit of a glut at ozeki at the time too, with Asanoyma, Takakeisho and Shodai already there.

Bottom line, Daiesho probably has no case unless he wins out and hits 33. And he’s got Asanoyama up next with Terunofuji looming, so he’s probably not winning out.

I would be very surprised if Daieisho got promoted to Ozeki in the current circumstances ,even if he wins out and ends with 11-4 and 33 wins altogether, given the history of Ozeki promotions where the run started at Maegashira

https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&columns=3&n_basho=4&show_total=on&group_expand=on&form1_rank=m&form1_year=1950-2023&form2_rank=m-s&form3_rank=m-s&form4_rank=o&sort_by=sum_total

Yeah it’s possible but unlikely: https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&n_basho=4&show_total=on&sum_wins=33&show_sum=on&group_expand=on&form1_rank=m1-m4&form1_year=1950-2023&form2_rank=k-s&form3_rank=s&form4_highlight=on&form4_rank=o&columns=4&sort_by=sum_wins

But it does give you a chance (around 1 in 3 from that query). Modifying that query to 32, and it just doesn’t happen:

https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&columns=4&n_basho=4&show_total=on&sum_wins=32&show_sum=on&group_expand=on&form1_rank=m1-m4&form1_year=1950-2023&form2_rank=k-s&form3_rank=s&form4_highlight=on&form4_rank=o

One should note that the one time 33 wins was enough, Yusho was won at the pre-promotion tournament as Sekiwake. It is not happening for Daieisho this time.

I’m trying to think of people that Ichiyamamoto and Mitoryu could beat right now and I’m coming up with nothing but a blank mind. They still can win matches, Mitoryu proved that in the last basho, but this feels different for both of them. Kagayaki might yet save his rank, but we’ll see.

Does a 1-9-5 record at M5 mean a demotion to Juryo? That feels like a steep demotion. But I guess it depends on how everyone else does over the next couple of days and the understanding that Kotoshoho wasn’t beating anyone when he was active.

By the standard formula, Kotoshoho’s record would translate to J1w, so he could be demoted, but only if they need his slot for a strong promotion case.

So Endo should be safe from demotion to Juryo even with 0 wins at M2w?

I guess mathematically he’d be M17w, so maybe not 100% safe, but they’d

reallyhave to need the slot. The only demotion from M2 I can find was when the banzuke only extended to M14e.Can U please explain the banzuke mathematics to me?

I‘m surprised how deep Endo should fall according to U.

As a rough estimate, take the difference between wins and losses, and that’s the size of the banzuke movement. So 0-15 drops you 15 ranks, though in practice it’s usually attenuated at the extremes.

One good way just to get a general idea also is to do a query over at sumodb

0 win rikishi at M2 in the 6 basho era, removing kosho-kyujo and covid-kyujo, have fallen to:

M11, M11, J1, M14, M11, M13, M15, M14, M13

So even in the absence of calculus driven wonkery, we can infer: