Kyushu Banzuke Released!

\

The official November rankings are out! Let’s see how they compare to the Crystal Ball. TLDR: No big surprises.

Yokozuna, Ozeki, and Sekiwake

There are no surprises in the top three ranks. Terunofuji, the sole Yokozuna, occupies Y1e for the 7th straight time, although he is all but certain to miss the basho after his recent knee surgery. Takakeisho is the top-ranked East Ozeki, and he is joined on the West side by Shodai, who needs 8 wins to keep his rank. Mitakeumi fell to Sekiwake, and as is traditional for a demoted Ozeki, he is in the lowest spot at that rank, which, to balance Terunofuji on the banzuke, is S2w. He has a one-time opportunity to regain Ozeki with 10 wins at Kyushu. The regular East and West Sekiwake slots continue to be occupied by Wakatakakage and Hoshoryu, respectively, as they both finished Aki with winning records.

Komusubi

And as predicted, there are four Komusubi: Tamawashi, Kiribayama, Tobizaru, and Daieisho. The only thing the Crystal Ball got wrong is the order of Tamawashi and Kiribayama.

This is the first time that the “Christmas tree” banzuke pattern of 1 Y, 2 O, 3 S and 4 K has ever happened. The last time lower san’yaku contained 7 rikishi was 1992, with 4 S and 3 K. You have to go back even further, to 1974, to find 3 S and 4 K, with only one other instance in 1960. In all, 7 S/K has happened only 7 times, and it has been exceeded on only one occasion, when a 4-basho stretch in 1962 featured 4 Sekiwake and 4 Komusubi.

Maegashira

At the crowded top of the rankings, Aki runner-up Takayasu indeed got the M1e slot. M2e Kotonowaka, M2w Meisei (8-7), and M3w Ura each posted 8 wins at Aki and all move up by half a rank. What surprised me is that M1w Midorifuji (7-8) got a demotion by two full ranks to M3w so that falling Komusubi Ichinojo (6-9) could only drop to M2w; such a harsh demotion at his rank has only happened once before in … wait for it … 1770.

We knew that a wildcard in the middle of the rankings was the placement of Abi, who missed the entire Aki basho while ranked at Komusubi. The Crystal Ball placed him at M10w, while the banzuke committee went with one rank higher. What I did not expect was to see Takarafuji, who went 5-10 at M5e, drop only 3 ranks to M8e, where I had placed M10w Takanosho (8-7). The math favors Takanosho, and Takarafuji wasn’t in the joi, so I have to wonder if the fact that he is in Isegahama beya played a role here.

Juryo-Makuuchi Exchanges

The Crystal Ball got this exactly right (in fact, it was spot-on for all ranks M11-M16). It was clear that Tsurugisho, Yutakayama, and Mitoryu had to go down, and that their places in the top division would go to Azumaryu, Kagayaki, and Atamifuji. And as predicted, Terutsuyoshi and Hiradoumi just hung on to M16e and M16w, with Tohakuryu having to settle for the top rank in Juryo.

Overall, the Crystal Ball placed 30 rikishi at the exact spot on the banzuke, and 5 more at the right rank but on the wrong side. Of the 7 misses, two were by half a rank, four by one rank, and one (Ichinojo, whom I had foolishly bumped down to M4e) by a rank and a half. I am happy with that prognostication accuracy.

Now, on to the basho!

Kyushu Banzuke Crystal Ball

\

Ahead of the release of the official November rankings on October 31 (Halloween!), it’s time for the Crystal Ball to make its prediction. Keep reading to see how I arrived at my banzuke projection, or scroll down if you just want to see it.

Yokozuna, Ozeki, and Sekiwake

There should be no surprises in the top three ranks. Terunofuji, the sole Yokozuna, will continue to occupy Y1e. Takakeisho will be the top-ranked East Ozeki, and he will be joined on the West side by Shodai. Mitakeumi will fall to Sekiwake, and as is traditional for a demoted Ozeki, he will be in the lowest spot at that rank, which, to balance Terunofuji on the banzuke, will be S2w. The regular East and West Sekiwake slots will be occupied by the incumbents Wakatakakage and Hoshoryu, respectively, as they both finished Aki with winning records.

Komusubi

There are four rikishi who should be locks for Komusubi. One is incumbent Kiribayama, who finished Aki with 9 wins. Another is S2e Daieisho (7-8), as no Sekiwake with that record has been dropped to maegashira in 30 years. We also have the September champion, M3e Tamawashi (13-2), as well as the top-ranked maegashira M1e Tobizaru (10-5). So I expect to see 4 Komusubi in addition to 3 Sekiwake in November, with the order being K1e Kiribayama, K1w Tamawashi, K2e Tobizaru, and K2w Daieisho.

You might be wondering how rare such a san’yaku configuration would be. According to my research, the “Christmas tree” pattern (as Josh called it) of 1 Y, 2 O, 3 S and 4 K has never happened before. The last time lower san’yaku contained 7 rikishi was 1992, with 4 S and 3 K. You have to go back even further, to 1974, to find 3 S and 4 K, with only one other instance in 1960. In all, 7 S/K has happened only 7 times, and it has been exceeded on only one occasion, when a 4-basho stretch in 1962 featured 4 Sekiwake and 4 Komusubi.

Maegashira

I won’t go through all the ranks here, but the principle is to order the rikishi by their rank-record combination and then try to come up with a consistent banzuke that respects this order as much as possible. The top of the rankings is very crowded. I don’t see how runner-up M4w Takayasu (11-4) doesn’t get the M1e slot; he really should be in san’yaku if only there was room. M2e Kotonowaka (8-7) must be promoted, and the only available option is a half-rank rise to M1w. Similarly, the slot vacated by Kotonowaka is the only place to put M2w Meisei (8-7).

There are two real contenders for M2w: M1w Midorifuji (7-8) and M3w Ura (8-7). For either to be ranked M3e is rare, though not unprecedented. I don’t think Ura will leapfrog Mirdorifuji, and will instead have to settle for the same half-rank rise as Kotonowaka and Meisei, but this is a close call.

Similarly, either falling Komusubi Ichinojo (6-9) or M6e Wakamotoharu (10-5) should claim M3w, with the other taking M4e. Both would be ranked much higher on most banzuke. While it would be highly unusual to drop a Komusubi this far, it would be unprecedented not to promote Wakamotoharu to at least M3, so I’m going to go against “joi bias” for once, though my confidence in this guess is low.

M5w Sadanoumi (9-6), who deserves to be ranked M2, will only get a one-rank promotion to M4w; but I don’t see how this can be helped. M8w Hokutofuji (10-5) should be a lock for M5e, followed by the other double-digit performers, M10e Nishikifuji (10-5) and M12w Ryuden (11-4). After this, the banzuke switches from being a relatively unlucky one, with most rikishi being ranked lower than their rank-record combination would warrant, to a relatively lucky one. And the placements are fairly clear, barring a half-rank rearrangement here and there.

The one remaining wildcard is the placement of Abi, who missed the entire basho while ranked at Komusubi. The three most recent rikishi in this position were all placed at M10e, but looking further back, anything from M6 to M13 would be defensible. After looking at his competition for various ranks, I’ve slotted Abi in at M10w, just behind M14e Chiyoshoma (9-6) and ahead of M7w Onosho (5-10).

Juryo-Makuuchi Exchanges

There are three cut-and-dried exchanges. M15w Tsurugisho (5-10), M14w Yutakayama (4-11) and M16e Mitoryu (5-10) all have irredeemable rank-record combinations. Their places in the top division will go to the top three promotion contenders in Juryo: Azumaryu, Kagayaki, and Atamifuji. We’ll see if Azumaryu can finally manage a winning record in his 9th basho in the top division. Atamifuji’s debut is one of the more eagerly awaited ones in recent memory.

Final-day losses left M15e Terutsuyoshi (6-9) and debutant M16w Hiradoumi (7-8) on the bubble. Hiradoumi has a slightly better numerical case to stay, but also went make-koshi at the lowest rung of the Makuuchi ladder. At least M16w should still be on the next banzuke. I don’t think both will go down, as there isn’t a good enough fifth promotion claim in Juryo. The question is whether either trades places with J3w Tohakuryu (8-7), and if so, which. My projection has the two incumbents just hanging on to M16e and M16w, respectively.

Aki 2022: A (very lengthy) 42 Man Review

After the Haru basho, I set out to review all 42 of the rikishi in Makuuchi and assess their performance. It was a well intentioned and horrifying experience to take on the challenge of analysing over three dozen members of the top division in one post. Scarred from that moment, I allowed half a year to pass, until, watching the now-completed Aki basho, I decided to do it again (and foolishly all in one post)…

M16W Hiradoumi (7-8)

Hiradoumi made his debut in the top division in this tournament. If this was your first time watching him, you will have noticed he has something very much in common with old timers like Myogiryu, Sadanoumi, and the dearly departed Goeido: his style of sumo is a very fast tachiai from which he wants to get both hands inside and from there, he’s comfortable winning either via yorikiri or oshidashi (for a young rikishi, where normally one’s kimarite is skewed very heavily towards either yotsu or oshi techniques, this is notable). The other thing Hiradoumi has in common with the aforementioned rikishi is that they all hail from the same heya. It might be worth a deeper dive in the future into Sakaigawa-oyakata’s coaching as he enters the final five years of his tenure. In any case, I think this basho will go down as a disappointment for Hiradoumi only in the sense that he started so brightly. He had only faced five of his opponents previously, and lost three of those matches, and somewhere along the way his new competition will have worked out that he is – at this stage of his development anyway – a less skilled version of the seniors in his heya. It will be good if he can bounce back (presumably from Juryo) and take the next step.

M16E Mitoryu (5-10)

Out of the two top division debutants, I expected Mitoryu to struggle more on account of his physical limitations and the difficulty he had progressing through Juryo over the past several years, the uncompetitive nature of his heya and the fact that he’s never truly shown the ability to dominate the opposition. Unlike Hiradoumi, I think it may be a while before Mitoryu returns to the top division, depending on the severity of his demotion. Even taking into account the matches he did win, I find it very difficult to make him the favourite for bouts against any style of competitor due to his rather plodding movement and power which appears to have been zapped by injury. However, such is the composition of the lower half of makuuchi right now (10 of the lowest 12 rankers all having make-koshi) that it’s anyone’s guess.

M15W Tsurugisho (5-10)

Tsurugisho is another guy who made his top division presence known after a long run in Juryo and that presence was probably largely due in hindsight to the retirements of a number of makuuchi long timers. I think it’s probably clear to say now that he hasn’t taken his chances and, at 31, will probably be a yo-yo guy between the two divisions over the next couple years. He’s likely too good for Juryo at this point but I don’t think, given that 3 of his 11 stabs at the top division have ended with a winning record, that we should expect too much more than what he gave us at Aki in the future.

M15E Terutsuyoshi (6-9)

The last 14 months have given Terutsuyoshi a pretty torrid time on the dohyo, with only one kachi-koshi now in seven basho, but I think he’s likely to be saved from demotion to Juryo after 21 straight top division appearances due to the incompetence of others around him and the lack of real promotable candidates. But he’s going to need to bring more next time, I think his opponents have largely figured him out and he’s missing the dynamism and surprise element of his early top division appearances.

M14W Yutakayama (4-11)

I don’t love the fact that I’m having to be so consistently negative about rikishi performance to start this review, but that’s what happens when get you a bunch of middling-to-hapless performances all in a row. It’s easy to blame Yutakayama’s injuries for stealing the power he displayed in his early makuuchi appearances, but it’s fairly clear now that the rikishi we saw before his late 2018 injury is not the rikishi we are going to have going forward, and it’s totally unfair to him to measure him against that level. He has been ranked for two full years between the bottom of makuuchi and the top of Juryo and while it’s not surprising to see him fail to be competitive even at the rank of M14, it is disheartening when we all saw earlier in his career what his capabilities used to be.

M14E Chiyoshoma (9-6)

The first kachi-koshi of the top division and, to be honest, while he’s always good for a flying henka, Chiyoshoma displayed plenty of competent sumo during the Aki basho and mixed in a fair few different kimarite. It’s nice to see it’s not just the younger guns like Kiribayama or Hoshoryu who can win via sotogake (as Mitoryu found out). He’ll be relieved to arrest a slide of four straight losing tournaments, and as long as he doesn’t benefit from crazy banzuke luck in Fukuoka, he might have a chance to make it two KK on the spin.

M13W Oho (7-8)

Kintamayama commented often about Oho’s consistent inability to get his 8th win, suggesting there’s a mental block somewhere that is lowering his projected ceiling. I think that shouldn’t overshadow a largely solid tournament from the youngster, but when you start a basho 5-0 that’s completely up for grabs with the sanyaku floundering, it is fairly shocking to not even see that seen through for a winning record. And Kintamayama’s comments are accurate by the way: his last year of sumo makes grim reading, having been 7-6 at Aki 2021 only to finish 7-8, 7-3 at Hatsu only to finish 7-8, 5-5 at Haru and then dropping 4 of his last 5 to finish 6-9, started 7-4 at Nagoya and dropped 3 of 4 to scrape through with an 8-7, and then started this tournament 5-0 and 7-3 only to lose his last five straight. He has of course had some other successes during that time, but it’s not like he’s consistently overmatched, he is starting most tournaments very competitively and then throwing away his chances at rapid progression. This may yet help him in the long run, as he’s still only 22 and hasn’t really developed a single dominant skill to his sumo beyond “is strong and powerful.” Still, heart has been said to be more important to rikishi than technique or physique and he’s going to need to find a way not to repeat these late basho collapses.

M13E Ichiyamamoto (6-9)

You can probably repeat some of what was said for Oho here for Ichiyamamoto, as he’s also displaying a worrying tendency recently to backslide in the final furlongs. Unlike Oho, however, time is not on the soon-to-be 29 year old’s side. The good news for all of us is that in the event that he only drops to somewhere around M15, he might get a chance to finally get that long awaited bout with Abi in Fukuoka!

M12W Ryuden (11-4, Jun-Yusho)

In some respects it’s a little surprising to see Ryuden with a share of the runners-up accolades having stuttered to a 1-4 start, but being heavily under-ranked, he was always likely to dominate his opposition as he did over his ten straight wins to finish out the tournament. His typically tenacious and ‘never give up’ attitude turned a couple of those matches in his favour, though I do wonder if, like Abi before him, this would have been his best chance to really factor in the yusho conversation from a rank where he could dine on a smorgasbord of less qualified opponents. In that sense, the runners-up notation is slightly misleading in that while he is legitimately a runner-up, he never factored in the yusho arasoi at any point due to the series of early losses which took him fully out of contention. While only a fool would bet against a kachi-koshi from him in Fukuoka, he’ll come up against a slightly higher-skilled and in some cases more desperate collection of opponents, which might limit him to a 9-6 or 10-5.

M12E Okinoumi (6-9)

You’d be crazy to write off the highly technical veteran, but this is the lowest rank at which he’s had a make-koshi in 9 years. Tamawashi’s success has showed us age is no impediment in this division, but Okinoumi has made a habit of pulling a kachi-koshi out of the hat to halt a run of losing tournaments and prolong his top division career by an extra 4 or 6 months. Kyushu may be his last opportunity to do that, and a losing record there may signal the end of an outstanding career, as he’ll have the opportunity to compete one more time in front of potentially a selection of local fans (while he’s not from Kyushu, Shimane prefecture is near to the November tournament, and it has just been reported that his elder stock – which had been on loan to ex-Kotoyuki – has now been vacated). While many top division stalwarts of the last decade were deprived to give their local fans something to cheer about one last time (Kotoshogiku, Ikioi, Goeido) before hanging up the mawashi, that’s at least something to look forward to in the upcoming tournament, and hopefully Okinoumi can conjure up one more solid performance from the division’s basement.

M11W Chiyotairyu (6-9)

Chiyotairyū is streaky and had an awful start to this tournament, but deserves a lot of credit for turning it around in the second week. Technically we know he’s going to deliver a cannonball tachiai and then set up for a pull down, and it’s a risky business to be in but it’s what he’s got. He’ll be 34 at the start of the next basho and has been in the top division for over 10 years with just a few short spells in Juryo, and probably has just a few more chances to prolong his top division career. He only has one winning tournament from the last eight, so the big question mark for stats fans will be whether he’s able to secure the kachi-koshi in Fukuoka in his 58th top division tournament that would almost certainly guarantee him to reach 60, the point at which a sumo elder qualifies to some-day open their own heya. Whether or not Chiyotairyu harbours that ambition or the resources is another matter, but there are less members of the kyokai to have reached that landmark than you might think, and it’s one of the more intriguing numbers for stats heads to watch out for in the next six months.

M11E Kotoshoho (7-8)

Kotoshoho’s fall from prospect to non-prospect status has been shocking, but it seems likely at this point that he’s another one of the guys in the category of Onosho and Yutakayama to have blitzed their way up to the joi upon their arrival in the division, only to get an injury and not return looking anything like the irrepressible force that got them there. The good news with Kotoshoho is that at 23, time is on his side, but someone with his ability is continuing to underperform at this rank and he’ll have to reload and give it another go in November. Now that it looks like there may be a stronger group of prospects forming around Juryo and upper Makushita, he may be in danger of washing out.

M10W Takanosho (8-7)

While I don’t think the Ozeki conversation around Onigiri-kun was ever especially realistic, he acquitted himself very well in the sanyaku ranks and looked to be a mainstay in the upper reaches of the banzuke before July’s kyujo dropped him into the nether regions of makuuchi, an area he hadn’t experienced in nearly 3 years since he rejoined the top division. Takanosho showed flashes of his ability upon return from injury, with his 3-0 start potentially signalling a title challenge. But he was also very streaky, and while he did give us a succession of entertaining bouts, he struggled to best those on form: he finished 7-1 against rikishi with losing records, while going 1-6 against rikishi with winning records. His ascent to Sekiwake was built on his ability to upset, and he will need to recapture it.

M10E Nishikifuji (10-5)

This was a big tournament for the latest in the long line of Isegahama products, and much more impressive than last basho’s 10-5, which was augmented by no fewer than three late fusen-sho among the covid withdrawal chaos. The yoritaoshi win over Tochinoshin on Day 8 was a particular highlight of this basho – it takes a brave rikishi to go chest to chest with the former Ozeki, whatever his condition – so to win via frontal crush-out, overpowering the one time yusho winner, was an incredible result. I always had his ceiling higher than Midorifuji, and while he’s taken longer to come good, he looks to be someone who can be a joi fixture sooner than later.

M9W Kotoeko (6-9)

Kotoeko has great fighting spirit but this was a bit of a blah tournament from him if we’re honest. There’s nothing in his results that stood out particularly for me, and the rank/result combination feels about right. Can move swiftly on…

M9E Myogiryu (8-7)

It’s a second straight kachi-koshi following four consecutive losing tournaments for the veteran. He doesn’t quite have the power from the tachiai these days but it is notable that even at nearly 36 years old he still has the speed to be able to defeat opponents who want the mawashi. His game – like that of stablemates Sadanoumi and Hiradoumi (and as we’ve covered, ex-Goeido) is modelled all around bursting inside from the initial charge. While they all have different preferences of finishing manoeuvres and Myogiryu has been more of a thruster than the rest of that lot, it is curious that his wins in this basho came – apart from Aoiyama – against opponents who will have invited him in.

M8W Hokutofuji (10-5)

Double digit wins is a great result, but there’s no question after his 9-0 start that everyone should have expected much more from the former top prospect in this basho. Hokutofuji had a real chance to challenge for his first yusho, and the way he fell from the pack in the second week was tough to watch. His opponents were much tougher down the stretch and that leads me to temper expectations for his eventual joi return – I think a kachi-koshi would be a wonderful result in November and it will be curious to see whether there is a lasting mental impact as a result of his 1-5 finish from a position of tournament leader. On the plus side, the improvement in his overall lower body balance has kept him in matches that he would have lost earlier in his career. The defeat to Takakeisho’s henka was particularly tough to watch, but more of that later.

M8E Tochinoshin (7-8)

It’s another creditable result for the former Ozeki who sometimes shows displays of incredible strength and dominance, and other times shows why he’s been mired in the bottom half of the division for the past couple of years. The senshuraku victory over a san’yaku opponent in the fading Ichinojo will rank as a rare highlight of the basho, but it’s still hard to watch the injury-plagued veteran struggle to put away lesser talents who would haven’t been deemed fit to tie his mawashi in years gone by. It’s been reported elsewhere that he’s committed to staying in the sport as long as possible to support his obligations back home in Georgia, so we should be able to enjoy him in the top division for some time yet. With five of his last seven basho being decided by the odd result, he seems fairly stable, health permitting.

M7W Onosho (5-10)

This is the first result that looks really perplexing to me, where the numbers just don’t quite match the eye test. I couldn’t help but think over the first week especially that Onosho looked better than he had in a really long time, with powerful oshi-zumo and a real fighting spirit. The results didn’t match though, and he went into nakabi at 2-5. He’s always going to suffer cheap losses on account of his style, but it’s tough to see the dimming of a star that once burned bright. It certainly didn’t look like this record was down to injury, he just wasn’t able to get the results and the make-koshi-sealing loss to Mitoryu in particular has got to rankle. After a 10-5 at M15 last time, I would back Onosho to bounce back in Kyushu from a lower rank.

M7E Aoiyama (6-9)

Big Dan looked hopeless in the first week, so credit where it’s due for finding the genki in the second week. He started 1-7, the win being a cheap pickup from Onosho. It’s notable however that he benefited hugely in his 5-2 finish from facing much lower ranked opposition, although that may stand him in better stead for November. At 36 however, he does appear to be on borrowed time.

M6W Endo (7-8)

This is the opposite of my reaction to Onosho’s result, as Endo – especially through the first week – looked awful. I can’t remember seeing a match I would have picked him to win before the tachiai, so how he’s come within a win of a kachi-koshi is beyond me. He’s still one of sumo’s real technical experts who can summon a magic moment from time to time, but there are just too many days where he shows up without fundamentals and gets blown away by tsuki-oshi sumo. Credit where it’s due for landing a white star from an Ozeki, although the less said about that opponent, the better. Endo is 32 this month and it wouldn’t be too surprising to see him fade into the middle of the pack.

M6E Wakamotoharu (10-5)

If only his brother knew how to start like him! It’s four KK in five for the Arashio-beya product, this time with a blistering 4-0 start that featured not one, but a pair of victories with the (somewhat) rare fisherman’s throw. It’s worth remembering Wakamotoharu is a sumo veteran despite his mere five makuuchi basho, but it’s very notable that he’s not preying on kids: some of his most impressive victories were racked up from the division’s elder statesmen (and Mitakeumi). If he keeps himself fit, he’s probably got a nice 1-2 year window to push his luck and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him ride the elevator up to Komusubi since he doesn’t seem to be fazed by the higher rankers whatsoever. I’d go as far as to say, after three 9-6s and a 10-5 in five tournaments, that there’s a question whether the more vaunted Kiribayama and Hoshoryu could better his combination of ability and consistency – it’s going to be a riveting angle to watch over the next couple basho.

M5W Sadanoumi (9-6)

Credit where it’s due. Last time I did one of these, I marked out Sadanoumi as a symptom of the division’s decline, but he’s been mostly brilliant in the last three tournaments and I actually found this to be a more enjoyable basho from him than the jun-yusho from May. He displayed impressive speed at 35, but unlike his stablemate Myogiryu, he’s going to try and execute more throws – which sometimes leave him a bit vulnerable at the edge (see: Wakamotoharu’s utchari). For him to take out Mitakeumi, Hoshoryu and Tochinoshin in a three bout stretch in the middle of the basho is marvellous. I don’t think it’s sustainable given his age and fitness record but you have to hold your hands up, he had a wonderful and entertaining basho.

M5E Takarafuji (5-10)

OK, listen: there’s no excuse for a make-koshi on day 9, and Takarafuji looked awful in that first week. In fact, this was his fourth consecutive tournament where he’s been at 5 losses or more by the middle weekend, and it arguably could have been worse if he didn’t conjure up a win against Aoiyama in the middle of his first eight losses. That all being said, he’s been able to stem the bleeding in these last 4 basho by beating a generous swathe of very low ranked opponents (claiming his kachi-koshi last time out against juryo guys in the weird Nagoya basho). He’s obviously not right physically and not able to “defend and extend” and commit the power that’s required to execute his brand of counter-attacking sumo. That said, his ability to grind out wins against poor opponents is what continues to extend the 35 year old’s career. For how much longer, is to be seen.

M4W Takayasu (11-4, Jun-Yusho & Kanto-sho)

I said in the Tachiai podcast before the basho that I expected “a big tournament” from Takayasu where he would challenge, but maybe not win the yusho. It’s good when you look like you know what you’re talking about. He always seems to benefit more than most from an extended rest, and coming on the back of a kyujo Nagoya, it was easy to predict a double digit result. In fact, I’d say he had a pretty flawless first week, apart from getting Ura’d by weird sumo. The senshuraku shootout loss, coming when he had his destiny to force a yusho playoff in his hands, was easy to foresee but hard to watch. The subsequent grimace in defeat was telling of a man who knew, yet again, he couldn’t shake the bridesmaid tag. Ultimately he simply had no answer for Tamawashi’s powerful nodowa-based attack, but his smiles and graciousness backstage with the victor afterwards showed a competitor and sumotori worthy of his place at the sport’s top table.

M4E Nishikigi (6-9)

The thing about him is his ability to always get us thinking “what if…”? Nishikigi is able to put together freak results, which is always possible when your sumo strategy is largely based around wrapping the opponent up and wringing them either way until they’re immobile. He’s a bit streaky though, and just couldn’t get his sumo together after an impressive Ozeki scalp (even if that Ozeki was Shodai). He didn’t show enough against higher ranked opposition here (1-6 vs san’yaku, 3-1 vs lower rankers) though to prove himself deserving of a spot in the joi, and I think mid-maegashira might be as good as it gets from here. With a new talent infusion due in makuuchi, it seems unlikely he will get many more chances from this rank in the future.

M3W Ura (8-7)

Hard to find fault with Ura’s results at this level, another basho with another spectacular win (the tsutaezori on Day 4 against Takarafuji) and a second kinboshi against the hobbled Yokozuna, which will be career-altering for a rikishi who spent so many prime years outside of the top division recovering from injury. Add in the kimedashi against Midorifuji, and you’d expect he won’t be invited over for chanko at Isegahama-beya anytime soon. His 4-5 record against the san’yaku indicates he continues to be a thorn in the side of the top rankers.

M3E Tamawashi (13-2, Yusho, Shukun-sho)

We’re running out of superlatives for the soon-to-be 38 year old, sumo’s oldest ever champion. Tamawashi started hot, winning his first three bouts for the third consecutive tournament, and was never out of touching distance of the leadership of the title race. Both his losses were dealt by the Onami brothers (against whom he is now a combined 2-7), though while he is still susceptible to skilled belt practitioners, his thrusting attack was just too powerful for the rest of the field. While the Yokozuna was clearly injured, Tamawashi’s recent dominance over Terunofuji – the best rikishi of the past few years – is remarkable, as he knocked out his 4th kinboshi in 5 tournaments from the Yokozuna and the 7th gold star of his career. It felt like Tamawashi won this title twice: first on Day 11 when he claimed sole leadership by dealing Hokutofuji’s chances a hammer blow, and then again on senshuraku when his nodowa attack simply overpowered Takayasu. Tamawashi can of course be beaten by another rikishi on their day, but it says much about the veteran that it just didn’t ever seem likely that Takayasu would be able to beat him twice, even if he forced the playoff. A much deserved yusho to further decorate a remarkable career for the iron man.

M2W Meisei (8-7)

Meisei had a quietly sneaky good end to the basho, with five straight mostly unmemorable wins to grab his kachi-koshi on senshuraku. He belongs at this level and it was frankly jarring to see him in the nether regions of the division following his horrific 1-14 at Haru. It had felt like this basho might end up in similar fashion with a heavy make-koshi after a really tough first week of the tournament, so he deserves a lot of credit for powering through.

M2E Kotonowaka (8-7)

Kotonowaka was another of the three rikishi I tipped for a big basho, so in some ways his narrow kachi-koshi seems a bit disappointing as a result of him dropping 3 of the last 4 matches, including two to lower rankers. His 5-4 result against the san’yaku shows he has got what it takes to tango at the upper levels of the division, as his physicality is very difficult for almost all opponents to deal with, and his belt skills are continuing to improve basho on basho. It’s worth noting he’s now posted more wins than losses in five consecutive tournaments.

M1W Midorifuji (7-8)

I had him nailed on for a 6-9 or even a 5-10, so at face value he’s done well to get himself to within a win of a kachi-koshi. On the other hand, the fact he posted his last two wins against significantly lower ranked opponents, having already sealed his make-koshi, is slightly misleading. By and large he performed as expected against opponents of similar rank: largely overmatched but with the ability to deploy his famous katasukashi and other mobility-driven techniques to spring the odd shock. He was seeing a lot of top-ranking opponents for the first time, and his creditable score means he’ll see them again in Fukuoka, so I expect some regression to the mean next time out.

M1E Tobizaru (10-5, Shukun-sho)

Sometimes you have to hold your hand up and admit you were wrong, and I had Tobizaru pegged for the reverse score in our pre-basho podcast. While the poor state of his opponents can be blamed (particularly a number of the san’yaku he deposed), he deserves an awful lot of credit for dialing up the genki and raising the level of his ability to operate as a chaos agent. It’s undoubtable now that his sumo technique has improved. That said, his defining characteristic is his ability to unsettle the opposition by way of his remarkable speed and movement. The risk is that when he does get whomped, as he did by the yusho winner on the final weekend, the Flying Monkey can exit the dohyo in a manner that could risk an injury that could eventually sap his mobility. Still, he’s primed for a much deserved san’yaku role in Kyushu. He continues to be enjoyable to watch, and awfully easy to root for.

K2W Kiribayama (9-6)

It’s refreshing to see a rikishi who can be reliable at this level and that you feel you can believe in. While there won’t be room in Fukuoka, it’s clear that Kiribayama has the ability to go higher in the banzuke, and it was good to see him fight successfully at the san’yaku level for the first time. That’s four straight winning records, and his budding rivalry with Hoshoryu looks like it may deliver riveting sumo for fans for the next several years.

K1W Ichinojo (6-9)

We were always likely to see the post-yusho dip here, as Ichinojo is practically famous for fading from view when the oxygen starts to get a bit thin in the lofty heights of the san’yaku ranks. He still gets up for the big matches and was able to notch a couple Ozeki scalps, but his surprising shonichi push-out of Takakeisho proved to be a false dawn as he went on to lose 6 of 7. With Terunofuji looking unlikely to return in November, Ichinojo’s bid to add to his 9 kinboshi will have to wait, but this result seemed par for the course and normal service will likely be resumed with the giant alternating between the top maegashira and lower san’yaku ranks as space permits over the coming tournaments.

K1E Abi (0-0-15)

Did not participate and it will be curious to see what shape he’s in upon his recovery from specialist intervention, as he’s largely looked to have been in career-best form prior to the injury.

S2E Daieisho (7-8)

At first glance, when you look upwards it’s hard not to see the make-koshi as a disappointment, but he did remarkably well to rebound from a 1-6 start, even if he had help from a couple poor Ozeki and a walkover win from the Yokozuna’s kyujo. It’s hard to judge this record accurately, as he wasn’t scheduled against the top performers in san’yaku on account of his poor record heading into the second week. In that context, I would view his performance in the tournament slightly more negatively, but while he certainly wasn’t on song in September, he still very much belongs among the top men in the sport.

S1W Hoshoryu (8-7)

Some of us have taken some stick from Hoshoryu fans in the comments for being “anti-Hoshoryu,” but there’s a huge difference between that and pointing out the flaws of a developing rikishi. Especially one with a gigantic internet sized hype train thinking he’s the next Yokozuna. I pointed out in the tachiai podcast before the tournament that he’s exactly at the rank he deserves and is as consistent as you like with a 55% win rate which puts him between 8-7 and 9-6 on average, and he turned in another 8-7 this time out. For sure, he is capable of stunning, emphatic victories and technical marvel and his two wins over the Ozeki in this basho (plus the sotogake against Ichinojo) were examples of that. His matches against Kiribayama are absolutely fascinating. But the lingering fact remains that there’s just something missing mentally that actually reminds me a bit of Endo and Ichinojo in the sense that, with 6 of his 7 losses coming against rank and file opposition, he shows up when the lights are brightest but can’t seem to put it together against the guys he’s supposed to beat. And that’s a problem when you’re talking about someone with Ozeki potential. You need 70% win rate over 3 tournaments to get to that level, and the next year will tell us a lot about whether Hoshoryu has it in his locker to take the next step. Still, when you look at the guys in the rank above, he deserves credit for fighting successfully at his rank.

S1E Wakatakakage (11-4, Jun-yusho, Gino-Sho)

Imagine if he could just get started on time! Out of his 14 active makuuchi basho, only 4 times has he not lost 2 of the first 3 matches. That’s crazy!!! This time he went 0-3 before reeling off 8 straight wins, with only a revenge defeat to Takayasu standing between him and a potential playoff (had results gone otherwise on senshuraku). Apart from the injury-impacted Yokozuna, he’s probably the most competent, consistent and impressive rikishi in the top division right now, but I’ve never seen a basho that starts on a Wednesday. It’s looking less like a coincidence that the tournament he started 3-0 ended in a yusho, and while we should be guarded about his prospects given the situation in the rank above, he is developing a trait seen many times in this basho where there feels like a certain inevitability he will win a match regardless of the circumstances he finds himself in. Having restarted his run, the bar has been reset, and double digit wins in Fukuoka is a must.

O2W Mitakeumi (4-11)

The reason this review is coming so long after the basho is because I just really didn’t want to write about the Ozeki. It’s easy to be the Monday Morning Quarterback about Mitakeumi’s situation, but whether he was suffering the effects of his shoulder injury as had been reported, or still suffering the after-effects of his covid infection, he was clearly so far off the level required to clear his kadoban status that he’d have been better served fully resting. Obviously, that is not the way sumo necessarily works due to any number of reasons. While he started 2-0 and landed a thunderous victory over Ura on Day 5, in truth the warning bells were going off as early as Day 3’s loss to Meisei and his listless 1-9 conclusion to the basho doesn’t bear thinking about. Mitakeumi was an Ozeki-in-waiting longer than most rikishi in recent memory but he’s now staring down the barrel of one of sumo’s most historically unimpressive tenures at the rank. Whatever the reason for that, he needs to find a solution in the next few weeks.

O1W Shodai (4-11)

Shodai actually has an Ozeki tenure longer than several notable names. But still, while he’s a figure of fun for his near constant kadoban status (he’s either had a make-koshi or needed to clear kadoban for the entirety of 2022), Aki felt like a new low. It goes without saying that 9 consecutive losses is unbecoming of the rank, and it was perplexing given that, once the pressure was off, Shodai actually finished somewhat strongly, going on a hot streak that was briefly interrupted by Hoshoryu’s stunning kubinage. Shodai clearly is a powerful, strong rikishi deserving of a place in the joi but it’s clear he’s uncomfortable and unable to consistently fight successfully at this rank. Now the question is: will he escape yet again?

O1E Takakeisho (10-5)

One could be forgiven for thinking we were in for a real disaster after Takakeisho’s opening day defeat to Ichinojo, but their fortunes would reverse after that and our favourite meatball hung around the edges of the yusho race until going down to Wakatakakage on Day 13. There are those who will think the sumo gods have a sharp sense of humour and/or justice and it’s notable that his 5th defeat came a day after his henka of challenger Hokutofuji. It’s a legal move, but it did seem unbecoming of an Ozeki (not as cheap of a shot as Terunofuji v Kotoshogiku because of the stakes, but it didn’t feel far off). Takakeisho may be shaping up as something of a flat track bully having gone 9-1 against the rank-and-filers, but given the situation with the Ozeki crew in general, that’s more than good enough.

Y Terunofuji (5-5-5)

The Yokozuna pulled out on Day 10, with his knees having been thoroughly abused in the preceding loss to Takayasu, but in truth he never looked mobile in this basho. While the kinboshi conceded to yusho-winner Tamawashi was notable for many reasons, it was one of four handed out by the Yokozuna, a rarely seen total for any Yokozuna in any basho (again, for a number of reasons). The word on the street is that he may take November off to heal, which would seem to be the correct thing to do (and also open up some potential wins for the troubled Ozeki/wake whose matches against the Yokozuna would be replaced with a rank-and-filer). We knew when Terunofuji completed his remarkable comeback that his time would always be limited, but hopefully he can heal and return for a strong 2023.

Kensho Dashboard Update (Aki 2022)

Once again, a huge thank you to Herouth for putting together and tracking the Kensho data from Aki Basho. As someone who is intimately familiar with data entry and data collection processes, I must say, it’s a huge effort. In my little rail world, some of our data collections are nice and automated but others remain a challenge. For one of my favorite data collection projects, I was the guy receiving forms for railroad retro-reflectorization. (People sometimes drive into the side of trains at night because they don’t see them, so railcar owners were required to put reflective tape on the railcars and then submit a form indicating the railcar mark and tallying their fleets.) THANK YOU!

Thankfully, that 10-year implementation period is over so the data collection period has ended. As with that, I am very interested in automation so I would love to see if the Kyokai would be willing to set up an API or share their data in a machine-readable format, rather than the current one, below.

Aki Kensho Performance Summary

Overall, this tournament offered slightly more kensho money to wrestlers than Hatsu. It looks like sponsorship money is finally coming out of the Covid downturn! I expect to see a dip in Kyushu before another peak in January. Hopefully the Pokemon will make their presence known again. There were more bouts with kensho pledged this past January, but Aki had thicker envelopes, on average.

Tamawashi, our yusho winner, had quite the tournament. The biggest prize will be the yusho and all of the nice gifts that come along with it, like the macarons, the beef, rice, gas, beer, etc. He also picked up a special prize, the Outstanding Performance Prize, which comes with its own financial award.

In addition to all of that, Tamawashi’s 13 wins earned him a pretty good chunk of kensho-kin, including the big one over Terunofuji (20 envelopes) which also earned him a kinboshi — yet another monetary prize. Interestingly, more money was pledged on Tamawashi’s bouts in March (when he was ranked slightly higher at M2W) but he actually won three times more money at this tournament by nearly doubling his win total from 7 to 13. In the spring, he had lost some pretty lucrative bouts to Takakeisho (14), Mitakeumi (22) and Endo (14). His big win in that tournament was again over Terunofuji (another 20) — whom he is mining this year for gold stars with four.

This brings up a little tweak I will make to my data model as I try to merge this data set with my others. Right now, I don’t have kinboshi tallied in either so I’m working to include it. That won’t be a challenge since it’s a pretty simple rule: if someone ranked among the Maegashira beats someone ranked Yokozuna, they get a gold star (kinboshi).

When we look at overall winners for Aki, Takakensho takes the top prize with more than 200 envelopes. See what I did there? I make myself crack up sometimes. He lost more than 100, though, especially after his losses to Ichinojo and Wakatakakage. Beating Shodai on senshuraku almost made up for it, though, with 57 envelopes up for grabs in that bout, alone. Terunofuji (139) limped away in second place after withdrawing early, followed by Wakatakakage (95), Shodai (94), and Takayasu (89).

The biggest kensho losers were the three Ozeki: Mitakeumi (-181), Shodai (-171), and Takakeisho (-109). They were followed by Terunofuji (-86) and Nishikigi (-85). Please play around with the visualization above and see how your favorite wrestler did. Has he been on an upward trend, like Kiribayama and Hoshoryu?

Tune in this November when we turn our eyes to Kyushu. If Terunofuji is kyujo, expect an even bigger dip in sponsorship money than what we’ve been seeing from tournaments outside Tokyo. If he’s out, the remaining Ozeki will enjoy taking turns with the musubi-no-ichiban since the prize money usually peaks on the last bout of the day. Will that be enough to motivate Shodai to pick up 8 wins? We shall see!