Kyushu Day 5 Preview

Bruce H Abi (阿炎), Aki Basho 2022, Aoiyama, Azumaryu, Chiyoshoma, Chiyotairyū (千代大龍), Daieisho (大栄翔), Endo (遠藤), Hiradoumi (平戸海), Hokutōfuji (北勝富士), Hoshoryu, Ichinojo (逸ノ城), Ichiyamamoto (一山本), Kagayaki (輝), Kiribayama (霧馬山), Kotoeko, Kotonowaka, Kotoshoho, Meisei, Midorifuji, Mitakeumi(御嶽海), Myogiryu (妙義龍), Nishikifuji (錦富士), Nishikigi, Oho (王鵬), Okinoumi (隠岐の海), Ryuden (竜電), Sadanoumi (佐田の海), Shōdai (正代直也), Takakeishō (貴景勝), Takanosho, Takarafuji (宝富士), Takayasu (高安), Tamawashi (玉鷲), Terutsuyoshi, Tobizaru, Tochinoshin (栃ノ心), Ura (宇良), Wakamotoharu (若元春), Wakatakakage, Yutakayama, Ōnoshō (阿武咲)

We have already reached day 5 of the Kyushu basho – the end of act 1. The crew at Tachiai tend to look at any basho as a composition of 3 five day “acts”, each that has it’s own purpose and goals. For act 1, we try to knock the ring rust off of everyone, get them tuned up to honbasho intensity, and start to find out who is hot and who is not.

The day 4 action did quite a bit to pull the rug out from under than last goal. Not a single rikishi will end act 1 with a perfect 5-0 record. I am sure some sumo fan who is far more into the numbers than I am can tell me the last time that happened. But instead now we have a broad group of 2-2 rikishi heading into day 5. Years ago when the podcast crew were discussing the (at that time) impending post-Hakuho future, Josh wisely suggested that given that most of the rikishi were all showing up from the lower ranks with more or less the same level of quality, that the future of Makuuchi was going to look a lot like Juryo at that time. Only a handful of high performers, who would not be able to consistently turn in strong records.

That prediction as certainly been playing out in the past year or so, as each tournament we end up with a large number of athletes who finish the tournament without standout performance. I am quite certain this is a transitory state, and that new champions will arise to dominate the sport.

Due to everyone turning in middling performances so far, expect a lot of 2-2 vs 2-2 match ups today. More or less everyone has a participation trophy right now, unless you are from Isegahama.

What We Are Watching Day 5

Kagayaki vs Atamifuji – I, for one, am looking forward to the first match in the top division today. We got to see Atamifuji get out of “sumimassen” mode on day 4, and maybe he’s decided he’s done showing glowing respect for everyone in the top division, and will now proceed to fight them with his best sumo. He has a 1-1 record with Kagayaki, and like half of the top division, both of them come into today 2-2.

Tsurugisho vs Azumaryu – Tsurugisho is today’s Juryo visitor, and you can tell he’s not from the top division because he does not have a 2-2 record. Instead, he’s got a 4-0 record (gasp!) and in promotable range. Maybe he can turn in a solid record and return to the top division yet again. He’s had 23 matches against Azumaryu, and won 15 of them.

Ichiyamamoto vs Hiradoumi – These two could have been conformists, and shown up today with a 2-2 record, but decided to be a bit different, and they both have 3-1. Way to make everyone else look half hearted guys. Ichiyamamoto has never lost to Hiradoumi, so I the chances of them both exiting the dohyo with matching records are zero.

Okinoumi vs Terutsuyoshi – A battle of the non-conformists. Not only do neither one of these rikishi have the decency to show up with a 2-2 record, they don’t even start the day with matching scores. Terutsuyoshi is from Isegahama, and he does not need to have a 2-2 record. In fact, he’s banged up and should be getting treatment. But for some reason here he is, handing out white stars day after day.

Kotoeko vs Oho – These two have 3-1 records, so it’s a bit more comfortable. Maybe if both of them could give one of their wins to the other person as a loss, they could find a way to get back to 2-2, but I don’t think they could get the proper forms faxed in by the start of the day, so its out of the question. Instead they are going to have to fight it out, and decide whose 3-1 record is best. Maybe Oho will continue to fight like he’s ready to win today.

Onosho vs Chiyotairyu – This is unsettling. Not only are these two not at 2-2, their scores are mirror images at 3-1 and 1-3. It’s as if they are trying to mock the high standards of the top division. But given how Onosho is fighting that much better than Chiyotairyu right now, I expect Onosho will have a strong chance of picking up his 4th win today.

Aoiyama vs Kotoshoho – Aoiyama’s upper body seems to be as potent as ever, but his suspension system and drive train are probably in need of a complete rebuild at this point. Hopefully Kotoshoho studied Chiyoshoma’s day 4 win, and has figured out that if you just can endure the beating long enough to get in close to Aoiyama, you can move him around like a fridge on a furniture dolly.

Takanosho vs Abi – I really hope Abi did not do something to mess up that damage ankle on day 4. Out of all the perfect score people on day 4, I expected him to hang onto his zero loss streak. Now that he’s given that up, he needs to be careful that Takanosho does not come underneath his double arm thrust, find his belt and battle hug him to victory. Abi has a 5-1 series lead.

Chiyoshoma vs Tochinoshin – I was surprised to find that Chiyoshoma actually had a 4-3 match advantage over Tochinoshin. Tochinoshin did not look strong or stable against Takarafuji on day 4, but at least he can take comfort that he has the highly prized 2-2 score to start the day. But I wonder if Tochinoshin’s knee is starting to give him trouble again.

Endo vs Myogiryu – Endo has only a single win so far, and he’s up against Myogiryu, who has a conforming 2-2 score. With 17 prior fights between them, the tally is 9-8 with a slight edge to Myogiryu, but both have won one against the other in the only two matches they have had this year.

Takarafuji vs Ryuden – Takarafuji has a 7-2 career advantage, but that hardly matters right now, as Takarafuji is hurt and should have been kyujo this tournament. He has an unbroken record of showing up for every match, and as far as I can tell, trying to keep that intact is the only reason he’s not getting treated right now. Seems silly, but then I am not a sumotori in any way.

Hokutofuji vs Nishikifuji – I am trying to figure out if once again Hokutofuji will attempt to attain “The most powerful make-koshi in all of sumo” this tournament, or if he really is trying to win. He has won the only prior match on the clay against Nishikifuji, but Nishikifuji is fighting better than he is so far. I think it will hinge on if he can land that nodowa at the tachiai, or if it will miss its mark as it did on day 4.

Nishikigi vs Sadanoumi – Finally, a match we can feel comfortable with. Both men are polite enough to make sure they showed up at the start of the day with a 2-2 score, and they have politely traded wins for the past few years, with them taking enough care to have a career score of 11-10. All social commentary aside, I think Sadanoumi will have the early advantage in this match, that tilts toward Nishikigi the longer the fight goes on.

Wakamotoharu vs Kotonowaka – For yet another tournament, Wakamotoharu is calling putting together a winning record. This is the stealth rikishi, and he’s never one to soak up attention, but can this guy win. Kotonowaka only found his first win on day 4, so maybe he’s not used to it just yet, but he does have a 4-1 career advantage over Wakamotoharu.

Daieisho vs Kiribayama – If I had to give an award for “most improved” from the end of Aki to the end of act 1 of Kyushu, it would go to Kiribayama. His sumo seems to really be calm, collected and patient. As much as I love Tobizaru sumo, I did enjoy Kiribayama stuffing him under his chest and keeping him there for a while. Today, he won’t get any such chance. Daieisho puts every gram of power he can into every push and hit, and Kiribayama will need to be careful to keep his feet.

Tamawashi vs Takayasu – These two have a 31 match history, and would routinely pound the stuffing out of each other every tournament. In fact, it was Tamawashi’s “arm breaker” kotenage that damaged Takayasu’s elbow. So I expect sparks to fly today.

Wakatakakage vs Ura – At first I was amazed that Wakatakakage lost on day 4, but now it all makes sense. He’s a really nice fellow, and was looking to make sure his score was a polite, and matching, 2-2. That being said, Ura has never won a match against Wakatakakage, and with him starting day 5 at a terrible 0-4 score, things do not look positive for him.

Tobizaru vs Mitakeumi – So far Mitakeumi has only lost a single bout, and in my opinion remains more or less on track for his 10 wins. He has a solid 3-1 career advantage over Tobizaru, but I would suggest his best approach is going to be the same as his win over Ura on day 4. Stay close, box him in, and don’t let him use his agility to get back in the fight.

Midorifuji vs Hoshoryu – For some odd reason, Hoshoryu has been unable to beat Midorifuji once in any of their 5 prior matches. I won’t be the least bit surprised to see make that 6-0 today. We may even see a third watashikomi in their series. It’s kind of funny because Hoshoryu knows its coming, takes active steps to shut it down, and then… Surprise!

Meisei vs Shodai – This needs to be a win for Shodai. Sure, he’s part of the polite group at 2-2, but this kadoban stuff is going to be a real problem in week 2 and act 3 unless he takes steps to get his record in solid positive territory this week. He has a 9-3 career advantage over Meisei, so this had better be a white star today.

Takakeisho vs Ichinojo – Ichinojo seems to have some of the fire which drove him to the yusho in July still hanging around, and I think that he may find himself employing his best sumo today against Takakeisho. Truth be told, Ichinojo is big enough that if he can set his feet, I am not sure that Takakeisho can really move him. I hope we can put that to the test today. They share a close to even 9-8 career record.

Kyushu Day 4 Highlights

Bruce H Abi (阿炎), Aki Basho 2022, Aoiyama, Azumaryu, Chiyoshoma, Chiyotairyū (千代大龍), Daieisho (大栄翔), Endo (遠藤), Hiradoumi (平戸海), Hokutōfuji (北勝富士), Hoshoryu, Ichinojo (逸ノ城), Ichiyamamoto (一山本), Kagayaki (輝), Kiribayama (霧馬山), Kotoeko, Kotonowaka, Kotoshoho, Meisei, Midorifuji, Mitakeumi(御嶽海), Myogiryu (妙義龍), Nishikifuji (錦富士), Nishikigi, Oho (王鵬), Okinoumi (隠岐の海), Ryuden (竜電), Sadanoumi (佐田の海), Shōdai (正代直也), Takakeishō (貴景勝), Takanosho, Takarafuji (宝富士), Takayasu (高安), Tamawashi (玉鷲), Terutsuyoshi, Tobizaru, Tochinoshin (栃ノ心), Ura (宇良), Wakamotoharu (若元春), Wakatakakage, Yutakayama, Ōnoshō (阿武咲)

At the end of day four, there are no perfect records. The cadre of five rikishi who started the day 3-0 all took their first losses today. In balance, four of the seven rikishi who had no wins picked up their first victory today. In fact, many of these matches ended with both rikishi having the same score. I am sure that it’w on’t last, but a crazy 16 men ended day four with 2-2 records. Talk about an evenly matched competition.

A shout out to Takayasu’s match today. It shows what can happen when he can keep his footing and keep his balance. Likewise, Mitakeumi’s match was not glorious or brilliant, but he boxed in Ura early, and kept him reacting, which was what he needed to do.

Highlight Matches

Bushozan defeats Kagayaki – Kagayaki struggled to keep his balance centered, but stayed in the fight because Bushozan was no better. For a brief moment, Kagayaki had Bushozan turned and was running him to the bales, but Bushozan recovered and rallied with a right hand inside hold. Kagayaki broke that hold, and advanced. It looked like he would win, but he took his eyes off of Bushozan, who escaped, reversed and pushed Kagayaki out. Rather sloppy sumo. Both end the day 2-2.

Azumaryu defeats Hiradoumi – Azumaryu continues to dominate Hiradoumi, thought it his form today featured him standing nearly upright the entire match. Hiradoumi, for his part, was too eager to gain advantage and pushed in hard, giving Azumaryu all of the force he needed for the pulling under arm throw that sent Hiradoumi tumbling to the clay. Azumaryu improves to 2-2.

Atamifuji defeats Okinoumi – Excellent escape move by Atamifuji at the moment Okinoumi had him against the bales and moved to push him out. The experience of Okinoumi showed, as he did not assume this finishing move would work, and was able to recover when Atamifuji re-engaged. But that near miss seems to have gotten Atamifuji out of “sumimasen” mode, and we got to see him fight! His sumo power seemed to jump about 25% in an instant, and he overpowered Okinoumi and drove him from the ring. Do that again, please! Atamifuji up to 2-2.

Kotoeko defeats Terutsuyoshi – While nearly all the winless rikishi found a white star today, not so for injured Terutsuyoshi. To his credit, he knows he’s in poor condition, and he tried a shift to the side at the tachiai today to try and set up an ashitori. Really anything to gain any kind of advantage and maybe squeeze a win out somewhere. But Kotoeko was well aware of the situation, pivoted with him, and quickly put Terutsuyoshi on the clay. Kotoeko improves to 3-1.

Ichiyamamoto defeats Chiyotairyu – Chiyotairyu seems to have lost the plot a moment before the tachiai, and had no offense. In response, Ichiyamamoto set aside his normal opening move, hitting Chiyotairyu about the head a neck, and immediately pulling him down. I guess Chiyotairyu should be familiar with this form of sumo. Ichiyamamoto now 3-1.

Oho defeats Kotoshoho – I found this match interesting, in that it featured Oho fighting with some vigor, which has been lacking in his first three fights. It seems to have come about thanks to Kotoshoho putting up a large counter-thrust effort. Nice to know that its possible to motivate Oho to expend some energy and fight like he wants to win. Both end the day 3-1.

Chiyoshoma defeats Aoiyama – Excellent endurance from Chiyoshoma, he really earned that win. Aoiyama fired up the V-Twin straight away, and took to pommeling Chiyoshoma’s face. Chiyoshoma absorbed it as best he could, and worked his way in closer. Once he got a right hand on Aoiyama’s belt, he was three quick steps away from the win, and he escorted Aoiyama back and out. Both end the day 1-3.

Onosho defeats Abi – Abi takes his first loss when he lost his footing in the middle of the fight. Abi was attempting to pivot to his left to dodge a forward rush by Onosho, pushing off from the tawara, but his left foot could not handle the landing. Good offensive sumo from Onosho, and he advances to 3-1.

Tochinoshin defeats Takarafuji – Its just miserable to watch Takarafuji go at this day after day. He’s in not shape to fight, but he goes out there anyhow. Tochinoshin stood him up, then pulled him forward and down. Quick and effective, he is now 2-2, and Takarafuji still winless.

Myogiryu defeats Takanosho – Myogiryu put all of his energy in disrupting Takanosho’s sumo, keeping him off balance and moving in reaction to what Myogiryu was doing. This took Takanosho’s offensive sumo out of the match, and after dancing him around for a while, Myogiryu tossed him across the bales. Both are now 2-2.

Nishikigi defeats Ryuden – Ryuden was too high when they took up their holds, and Nishikigi attacked well from underneath. Once Nishikigi was able to complete his grip with the right hand outside, Ryuden had no choice but to come along for the ride. Nishikigi improves to 2-2.

Nishikifuji defeats Endo – Nishikifuji tried to disrupt Endo’s sumo on three separate volleys, but Endo is a seasoned vet, and keep his feet on the clay, and his weight centered over his feet. Nishikifuji switched to a thrusting attack, and caught Endo low and open, a few strikes to the chest, and Endo was out of the ring. Nishikifuji improves to 3-1.

Wakamotoharu defeats Sadanoumi – Sadanoumi dictated a yotsu-zumo match when he took Wakamotoharu to his chest at the tachiai, and Wakamotoharu was happy to oblige. But before Sadanoumi could get himself set, Wakamotoharu already had both hands on Sadanoumi’s mawashi. From there, it was really Wakamotoharu’s sumo that was in control, and he packed and shipped Sadanoumi with little trouble. Wakamotoharu advances to 3-1.

Midorifuji defeats Hokutofuji – Hokutofuji’s handshake tachiai and resulting nodowa had little positive effect, but seems to have left him too far forward. In an instant, Hokutofuji realizes this, drops the nodowa and attempt to correct his balance. In response, Midorifuji delivers the tsukiotoshi, dropping Hokutofuji to the clay. Both are 2-2.

Kiribayama defeats Tobizaru – Tobizaru picks up his first loss of Kyushu when he gets a bit too low, and Kiribayama has origami time, folding him under and making him suffer. In fact, Kiribayama seems to be in no rush to let Tobizaru out of this hold, but finally decides that he has to get back to the heya and finish that level of One Piece Bounty Rush, and drops Tobizaru to the clay by uwatehineri. Both are now 3-1.

Tamawashi defeats Daieisho – It was high time for Tamawashi to rack up his first win. It was a wild, chaotic exchange of off balance thrusting, pushing and just generally carrying on crazy. As is usually the case, Daieisho’s balance broke first, and Tamawashi lunged in to give him enough velocity to send him out. Tamawashi now 1-3.

Mitakeumi defeats Ura – Ura is the only non-Isegahama rikishi to remain winless. There was a moment of hesitation from Ura at the initial clash that cost him this match. Mitakeumi stayed close, kept Ura bracketed and did not let him open a gap. Ura seemed to abandon his forward pressure for a moment, trying to pull, but Mitakeumi’s cover was tight, and the pull simply helped him run Ura out. Mitakeumi up to 3-1, and needs 7 more wins to return to Ozeki.

Takayasu defeats Hoshoryu – Did you see it? Takayasu kept his weight centered over his feet, and put all of his energy into hitting Hoshoryu. That’s a lot of power, and it quickly any offensive sumo Hoshoryu wanted to bring to the match today. As Hoshoryu was reacting, trying to open a gap, Takayasu slammed his right hand down on his shoulder and pulled him to the clay. Quick, brutal and effective. They both finish the day 3-1.

Kotonowaka defeats Wakatakakage – It was only a matter of time before Kotonowaka picked up his first win, and he tends to give Wakatakakage a good fight. Kotonowaka was high at the tachiai, and did not seem to be in good form at first. But he got a grip on both of Wakatakakage’s shoulders, and immediately launched a kainahineri, which is not frequently seen. Wakatakakage seems mildly impressed that he was on the receiving end, but Kotonowaka advances to 1-3.

Meisei defeats Takakeisho – This match was thrown away when Takakeisho decided that after putting Meisei off balance and on his heels, to pull him from the back of the neck. It was a wide open invitation for Meisei to run him immediately out. Meisei obliged, and picks up his first win of November to end the day 1-3.

Ichinojo defeats Shodai – Shodai frequently struggles with Ichinojo. It might be the size, or his noted love of eating daikon whole, leaves and all. Unlike some days, Shodai put up a solid fight. Establishing a right hand inside grip, for a brief moment it looked like he had an advantage. But much like getting a firm hand hold on a rampaging wildebeest, the glory of success is short lived once you realize you are attached to this thing. Ichinojo’s left hand found its mark, and he took Shodai out three steps later. Solid sumo from Ichinojo today, and he matches Shodai at 2-2.

No-zeki

Thomas Griffin Kyushu Basho 2022, Mitakeumi(御嶽海), Shōdai (正代直也), Takakeishō (貴景勝), Terunofuji (照ノ富士), Wakatakakage

Will the real ōzeki please stand up?

This Kyushu 2022 tournament has the potential to be the most historically significant basho in living memory, and not in a good way. For much of the last three years, fans, pundits, and coaches have bemoaned the weakness at the top of the sumo pyramid. As the older generation aged out of the sport, everyone expected a fresh crop of capable athletes to take their place, but so far they have failed to live up to expectations. Now, if someone—or even a few someones—don’t step up soon, the banzuke itself could be broken in a way we’ve never seen before.

Why? Because it NEEDS Ozeki. Two of them, in fact, to keep balance on the banzuke, or a honbasho cannot be convened.

Luckily one slot is already insured, at least for the time being. This is because a Yokozuna can “fill in” as Ozeki on the banzuke, should the need arise. We saw this last in March 2020 when Takakeisho was the lone wrestler to officially hold the rank of Ozeki (Goeido had just retired after the January tournament rather than face demotion, while Takayasu, battling from the dreaded “ozeki-wake” position in January, had failed to attain the 10 wins necessary to return to Ozeki proper). In this instance, Yokozuna Kakuryu was officially listed as “Yokozuna/Ozeki” on the banzuke, and by the time the next tournament rolled around in July (the May tournament was cancelled due to the COVID lockdown), the problem had solved itself with the ill-fated promotion of Ozeki Asanoyama.

And that’s where it all started to go wrong. Another Ozeki was promoted that November, but the man in question, Shodai, has failed to inspire, and though he’s managed to maintain the rank for 13 basho now, he has already gone kadoban 5 times, and only recorded 10+ wins twice. His track record has been so mediocre, in fact, that after this most recent Aki basho, the members of the Yokozuna Deliberation Council mused over whether the demotion criteria for Ozeki should be reformed to account for wrestlers who fail to meet the general public’s (admittedly subjective) expectations of how an Ozeki should perform.

Asanoyama, meanwhile, lasted only 7 tournaments at the rank before a year-long suspension for breaking COVID protocols would force him not only from san’yaku but the salaried ranks altogether. Luckily, as his fall began, Terunofuji’s rise was in full swing. The resurrection of Terunofuji’s sumo career, from Jonidan to Yokozuna, has been a notable exception to Makuuchi’s mediocrity and a welcome boon to the sport, but his resurgence has always had an expiration date, and it seems that date is fast approaching. For the first time since his return to the top division, Terunofuji will be kyujo for the full 15 days in November while he recovers from double knee surgery, and it’s not unreasonable to think he’ll miss January as well. Heck, he may never come back, or he may return diminished, unable to fulfill his obligations as sumo’s scion.

This would put the sport in a real pickle, as the aforementioned Shodai is currently kadoban yet again, and the newest inductee to the rank, long-time Ozeki bridesmaid Mitakeumi, performed so dismally upon promotion that he has already been demoted after only 4 tournaments. He now faces the dreaded ozeki-wake 10-win gauntlet if he wishes to return to his career high rank in January. Should both Shodai and Mitakeumi fail in their missions (the most likely scenario, in my pessimistic opinion) that would leave only one Ozeki standing: Takakeisho. Once again, a Yokozuna would be slotted into the “Yokozuna/Ozeki” designation in order to balance the banzuke, but with Terunofuji inactive, it will seem a rather empty gesture. In reality, it will be up to able but limited Takakeisho to uphold the dignity of sumo’s pinnacle.

Is the worst yet to come? Takakeisho seems in no danger of demotion at present, but he’s not been the picture of consistency either with 5 kadoban and 1 temporary “ozeki-wake” demotion to his name. And as we’ve already outlined, the top of the banzuke is like dancing the tango—it takes two. Should Terunofuji’s injuries force him into retirement, we’ll see sumo in uncharted waters. There have been periods without Yokozuna (the last being from May 1992 when Hokutoumi retired until March 1993 when Akebono was promoted) and there have been times without Ozeki (September 1981, which was Chiyonofuji’s first basho as Yokozuna). However, there have never been less than two wrestlers ranked at Yokozuna/Ozeki. Not just in recent history. Not since the institution of the modern 6-basho schedule in 1958. Not since the beginning of the 15-day basho in 1939. Not since the modern system for promotion and demotion was established over 100 years ago. Not ever. NEVER. It is literally against the rules as they’re currently written.

So what are our options? There are of course several wrestlers who might step up to save sumo. Perhaps the current Ozeki crop shape up. Perhaps the next generation of young guns lay claim to the rank before the old guard is forced to abdicate. Or perhaps Asanoyama comes flying up the rankings as Terunofuji did in 2020/2021 and we all welcome him back with open arms and a sigh of relief.

…Or, perhaps no one fills the void in time.

If you’re asking me what happens then, the answer is “I don’t know.” I’m not sure anyone does. It’s never come up! But in order to hold a honbasho, there must be at least two Ozeki, so something must be done. My best guess—they promote the most promising current san’yaku wrestler (Wakatakakage would seem to be the betting favorite) to salvage the banzuke and pray he’s up to the task. He’ll need to keep winning, however. Otherwise, the banzuke committee will be forced to pick whichever san’yaku wrestler manages the best kachi-koshi. Talk about setting a precedent. An Ozeki hasn’t been promoted in this way since the 1800s! Another theory involves holding some sort of supplemental “ranking tournament” with Ozeki promotion as the prize.

Hopefully none of these doomsday scenarios come to pass, but then again, won’t it be interesting if they do?

Kyushu Day 4 Preview

Bruce H Abi (阿炎), Aki Basho 2022, Aoiyama, Azumaryu, Chiyoshoma, Chiyotairyū (千代大龍), Daieisho (大栄翔), Endo (遠藤), Hiradoumi (平戸海), Hokutōfuji (北勝富士), Hoshoryu, Ichinojo (逸ノ城), Ichiyamamoto (一山本), Kagayaki (輝), Kiribayama (霧馬山), Kotoeko, Kotonowaka, Kotoshoho, Meisei, Midorifuji, Mitakeumi(御嶽海), Myogiryu (妙義龍), Nishikifuji (錦富士), Nishikigi, Oho (王鵬), Okinoumi (隠岐の海), Ryuden (竜電), Sadanoumi (佐田の海), Shōdai (正代直也), Takakeishō (貴景勝), Takanosho, Takarafuji (宝富士), Takayasu (高安), Tamawashi (玉鷲), Terutsuyoshi, Tobizaru, Tochinoshin (栃ノ心), Ura (宇良), Wakamotoharu (若元春), Wakatakakage, Yutakayama, Ōnoshō (阿武咲)

At the start of day 4, we are looking at just a handful of rikishi with no losses. This includes

  • Hoshoryu
  • Tobizaru
  • Abi
  • Kotoshoho
  • Hiradoumi

I expect by the end of act one at the completion of Thursday that there may be just one or two. As is common now in the post-Hakuho era, the competition space is surpassingly flat, and no rikishi is unassailable, and might be defeated on any given day. For recent fans of sumo, this seems perfectly natural. But there was a day just a few years ago were we could expect Hakuho and maybe Terunofuji to go a tournament or two per year without suffering a single loss. Will we ever get back to that level of dominance in the sport? I think we may see it in the next few years, sooner if some of the current leading men can improve a notch or two.

At the other end of the spectrum, we have 7 rikishi who have yet to find their first win. I suspect that at least half of them will beat their opponents today. But for some (such as Takarafuji), they are just too banged up right now to present much of an opponent to anyone in the top division. For fans of some of these long serving favorites, it may be a long 15 days.

What We Are Watching Day 4

Kagayaki vs Bushozan – Today’s Juryo visitor is Bushozan, who has been knocking around Juryo since early 2021. At Juryo 2W, he has a chance to make it to the top division if he can put up a solid kachi-koshi. But sadly he has a 1-2 start, and needs to turn things around right away. He is fairly evenly matched against Kagayaki, so I am looking for him to put up a lot of fight today.

Hiradoumi vs Azumaryu – Not sure what switch was thrown in Hiradoumi’s internal systems, but he’s been an entirely different rikishi than his weak 7-8 make-koshi in September would describe. The last man on the banzuke, he needs 8 wins to stay in the top division. At his 3-0 start, thats looking like a fairly certain bet. I will point out again that 1-2 Azumaryu has yet to have a kachi-koshi in the top division.

Okinoumi vs Atamifuji – First time match between grizzled and fading veteran Okinoumi and bright newcomer Atamifuji. Right now I am still waiting for Atamifuji to settle in and fight with the same power and speed he used to drive through Juryo and secure his top division debut. Okinoumi is not looking well, and seems to largely be going through the motions right now.

Kotoeko vs Terutsuyoshi – In the list of “people I pick to take a trip to Juryo, front of the line right now is dear injured Terutsuyoshi. He has yet to find his first win, and I don’t think that it’s coming today against another smaller, strong rikishi in Kotoeko. They have a remarkable 25 match history going back to 2015, that is 13-12 in favor of Kotoeko.

Ichiyamamoto vs Chiyotairyu – With this much forward power crammed into the first 8 seconds of the match, the win will be determined by who can keep their feet. My money for today is Ichiyamamoto, as Chiyotairyu seems to once again be struggling with some lower body injury. They share an even 2-2 career record.

Oho vs Kotoshoho – Kotoshoho has an excellent 3-0 start, and he will likely make that 4-0 today unless the genki version of Oho shows up at the venue. Oho is day to day in his sumo, and while I don’t think he’s quite good enough to be considered top division, his peers are not much better, and so he lingers up in Makuuchi.

Aoiyama vs Chiyoshoma – One of these days, Chiyoshoma is going to win his first match, and I think there is a good chance he will do it today. Aoiyama can only use the “Statue of Liberty” play right now. If he is forced to move, he’s toast. So Chiyoshoma must endure a volley of blows to get inside, get a grip and heave that mountain of pasty man-flesh to the side. Once he gets him moving, it should be trivial from there.

Onosho vs Abi – This is perhaps Abi’s most competitive match of week 1. Onosho has a slight 6-5 advantage over 3-0 Abi, and will give him a good fight. Both will focus on huge opening moves, and it will be for Onosho to disrupt the initial nodowa / double arm thrust combo if he wants to carry the match.

Takarafuji vs Tochinoshin – I expect Takarafuji to continue to be little more than ballast for his opponents for the next week and change as he seems to be in no condition to compete. Right now he has zero wins, and given that he can’t seem to bring any resistance to forward pressure, I don’t see him winning many if any matches in the remaining 11 days.

Takanosho vs Myogiryu – Takanosho took his first loss in his day 3 match against Aoiyama, after he received a volley from “Big Dan” and the V-Twin. Takanosho took an awkward step of the dohyo, and was not walking right afterward, and I hope that he did not injury himself at the end of that match. He holds a 5-3 career advantage over Myogiryu, and under normal circumstances should be able to dominate today’s match.

Nishikigi vs Ryuden – I like the way Ryuden has been fighting this November, and I think he may have been able to set aside his persistent hip problems, at least for now. Coming in at 2-1 with a 4-2 career advantage over Nishikigi, I would favor him to take the match today.

Endo vs Nishikifuji – First ever match, and I believe that Endo’s 1-2 score, and Nishikifuji’s 2-1 score don’t quite tell the tale of today. I think that both of them have a good chance of having a big win here today, and this one will either be quick and boring, or could turn into a roving brawl that is ended by guile and bold moves.

Wakamotoharu vs Sadanoumi – After that elbow to Ura’s face on day 3, I am going to hope that Wakamotoharu is a bit more careful. He has a 2-5 career deficit against “Mr Quick” Sadanoumi. Both men are 2-1 at the start of day 4, and I am eager to see the clash of styles that are wrapped up in this match. I think that Wakamotoharu will want to grapple and extend this match as much as he can, vs Sadanoumi who is always going to deliver his attacks at a rapid pace.

Hokutofuji vs Midorifuji – A battle of the *fuji crew, this is the first time they have ever fought. Given Hokutofuji’s tendency toward frantic early moves in any match, he may be a good candidate for yet another magnificent katasukashi.

Tobizaru vs Kiribayama – Oh this is likely to be a big, fun match. In the first three days of Kyushu, they have both delivered some of the best sumo of their careers to date, and I have big expectations from these guys in 2023. Tobizaru holds an 8-4 advantage over their career, but Kiribayama has taken a bit of a step change as of late and they have traded wins in their last two matches.

Tamawashi vs Daieisho – Tamawashi has had a cold start to begin the Kyushu basho. It’s a shame that he would go from a yusho in September to struggling to find his first win. But given the overhead of being the Yusho winner, and the distractions involved do tend to take their tool. He has a 12-9 career advantage over Daieisho, who comes in with a 2-1 record, and will likely take the match today.

Ura vs Mitakeumi – Winless Ura comes up against the Ozekiwake that needs to rack up the wins in week one as a hedge against his week 2 schedule. Right not Ura is not showing us much in the way of dominant sumo, but with Ura that can change at any moment, if he finds his opening. Mitakeumi holds a 4-1 career advantage.

Takayasu vs Hoshoryu – I still expect Takayasu to fade a bit in week 2 because of his long suffering injuries. But in the short term, he seems to be doing a wonderful job of putting dents in people’s records for Kyushu. Up today is Hoshoryu, who has only won one match against Takayasu out of five meetings. I think that so far this November, Hoshoryu has been showing us some of his best sumo ever, and this will be a solid match against a larger, more experience opponent.

Wakatakakage vs Kotonowaka – Kotonowaka has yet to win his first match, and I am not prone to give him much credit in today’s match against future Ozeki Wakatakakage. I find myself really enjoying Wakatakakage’s sumo right now, as he has progressed to the point where he is starting to make it look easy, and a careful observer can spot the details and fitness of how he can subtly do things that deliver him wins. Their history is 4-2 in favor of Wakatakakage, but I would be surprised if Kotonowaka can give him too much trouble today.

Takakeisho vs Meisei – Takakeisho’s pride and unblemished record took a dent on day 3 thanks to Takayasu. Today he’s got winless Meisei, who has only beaten the Ozeki 3 times in 10 tries. In spite of his day 3 loss, I still expect Takakeisho to be in competition for the cup in week 2.

Ichinojo vs Shodai – A big test for Shodai today, as he has a 5-13 career deficit against Ichinojo. Granted, with the media nonsense swirling around Ichinojo right now, he may be distracted by something other than Shodai’s “Wall of Daikon”, which is a shame. Shodai needs 6 more wins to clear kadoban, or face demotion to Sekiwake.