At the start of day 4, we are looking at just a handful of rikishi with no losses. This includes

• Hoshoryu
• Tobizaru
• Abi
• Kotoshoho
• Hiradoumi

I expect by the end of act one at the completion of Thursday that there may be just one or two. As is common now in the post-Hakuho era, the competition space is surpassingly flat, and no rikishi is unassailable, and might be defeated on any given day. For recent fans of sumo, this seems perfectly natural. But there was a day just a few years ago were we could expect Hakuho and maybe Terunofuji to go a tournament or two per year without suffering a single loss. Will we ever get back to that level of dominance in the sport? I think we may see it in the next few years, sooner if some of the current leading men can improve a notch or two.

At the other end of the spectrum, we have 7 rikishi who have yet to find their first win. I suspect that at least half of them will beat their opponents today. But for some (such as Takarafuji), they are just too banged up right now to present much of an opponent to anyone in the top division. For fans of some of these long serving favorites, it may be a long 15 days.

What We Are Watching Day 4

Kagayaki vs Bushozan – Today’s Juryo visitor is Bushozan, who has been knocking around Juryo since early 2021. At Juryo 2W, he has a chance to make it to the top division if he can put up a solid kachi-koshi. But sadly he has a 1-2 start, and needs to turn things around right away. He is fairly evenly matched against Kagayaki, so I am looking for him to put up a lot of fight today.

Hiradoumi vs Azumaryu – Not sure what switch was thrown in Hiradoumi’s internal systems, but he’s been an entirely different rikishi than his weak 7-8 make-koshi in September would describe. The last man on the banzuke, he needs 8 wins to stay in the top division. At his 3-0 start, thats looking like a fairly certain bet. I will point out again that 1-2 Azumaryu has yet to have a kachi-koshi in the top division.

Okinoumi vs Atamifuji – First time match between grizzled and fading veteran Okinoumi and bright newcomer Atamifuji. Right now I am still waiting for Atamifuji to settle in and fight with the same power and speed he used to drive through Juryo and secure his top division debut. Okinoumi is not looking well, and seems to largely be going through the motions right now.

Kotoeko vs Terutsuyoshi – In the list of “people I pick to take a trip to Juryo, front of the line right now is dear injured Terutsuyoshi. He has yet to find his first win, and I don’t think that it’s coming today against another smaller, strong rikishi in Kotoeko. They have a remarkable 25 match history going back to 2015, that is 13-12 in favor of Kotoeko.

Ichiyamamoto vs Chiyotairyu – With this much forward power crammed into the first 8 seconds of the match, the win will be determined by who can keep their feet. My money for today is Ichiyamamoto, as Chiyotairyu seems to once again be struggling with some lower body injury. They share an even 2-2 career record.

Oho vs Kotoshoho – Kotoshoho has an excellent 3-0 start, and he will likely make that 4-0 today unless the genki version of Oho shows up at the venue. Oho is day to day in his sumo, and while I don’t think he’s quite good enough to be considered top division, his peers are not much better, and so he lingers up in Makuuchi.

Aoiyama vs Chiyoshoma – One of these days, Chiyoshoma is going to win his first match, and I think there is a good chance he will do it today. Aoiyama can only use the “Statue of Liberty” play right now. If he is forced to move, he’s toast. So Chiyoshoma must endure a volley of blows to get inside, get a grip and heave that mountain of pasty man-flesh to the side. Once he gets him moving, it should be trivial from there.

Onosho vs Abi – This is perhaps Abi’s most competitive match of week 1. Onosho has a slight 6-5 advantage over 3-0 Abi, and will give him a good fight. Both will focus on huge opening moves, and it will be for Onosho to disrupt the initial nodowa / double arm thrust combo if he wants to carry the match.

Takarafuji vs Tochinoshin – I expect Takarafuji to continue to be little more than ballast for his opponents for the next week and change as he seems to be in no condition to compete. Right now he has zero wins, and given that he can’t seem to bring any resistance to forward pressure, I don’t see him winning many if any matches in the remaining 11 days.

Takanosho vs Myogiryu – Takanosho took his first loss in his day 3 match against Aoiyama, after he received a volley from “Big Dan” and the V-Twin. Takanosho took an awkward step of the dohyo, and was not walking right afterward, and I hope that he did not injury himself at the end of that match. He holds a 5-3 career advantage over Myogiryu, and under normal circumstances should be able to dominate today’s match.

Nishikigi vs Ryuden – I like the way Ryuden has been fighting this November, and I think he may have been able to set aside his persistent hip problems, at least for now. Coming in at 2-1 with a 4-2 career advantage over Nishikigi, I would favor him to take the match today.

Endo vs Nishikifuji – First ever match, and I believe that Endo’s 1-2 score, and Nishikifuji’s 2-1 score don’t quite tell the tale of today. I think that both of them have a good chance of having a big win here today, and this one will either be quick and boring, or could turn into a roving brawl that is ended by guile and bold moves.

Wakamotoharu vs Sadanoumi – After that elbow to Ura’s face on day 3, I am going to hope that Wakamotoharu is a bit more careful. He has a 2-5 career deficit against “Mr Quick” Sadanoumi. Both men are 2-1 at the start of day 4, and I am eager to see the clash of styles that are wrapped up in this match. I think that Wakamotoharu will want to grapple and extend this match as much as he can, vs Sadanoumi who is always going to deliver his attacks at a rapid pace.

Hokutofuji vs Midorifuji – A battle of the *fuji crew, this is the first time they have ever fought. Given Hokutofuji’s tendency toward frantic early moves in any match, he may be a good candidate for yet another magnificent katasukashi.

Tobizaru vs Kiribayama – Oh this is likely to be a big, fun match. In the first three days of Kyushu, they have both delivered some of the best sumo of their careers to date, and I have big expectations from these guys in 2023. Tobizaru holds an 8-4 advantage over their career, but Kiribayama has taken a bit of a step change as of late and they have traded wins in their last two matches.

Tamawashi vs Daieisho – Tamawashi has had a cold start to begin the Kyushu basho. It’s a shame that he would go from a yusho in September to struggling to find his first win. But given the overhead of being the Yusho winner, and the distractions involved do tend to take their tool. He has a 12-9 career advantage over Daieisho, who comes in with a 2-1 record, and will likely take the match today.

Ura vs Mitakeumi – Winless Ura comes up against the Ozekiwake that needs to rack up the wins in week one as a hedge against his week 2 schedule. Right not Ura is not showing us much in the way of dominant sumo, but with Ura that can change at any moment, if he finds his opening. Mitakeumi holds a 4-1 career advantage.

Takayasu vs Hoshoryu – I still expect Takayasu to fade a bit in week 2 because of his long suffering injuries. But in the short term, he seems to be doing a wonderful job of putting dents in people’s records for Kyushu. Up today is Hoshoryu, who has only won one match against Takayasu out of five meetings. I think that so far this November, Hoshoryu has been showing us some of his best sumo ever, and this will be a solid match against a larger, more experience opponent.

Wakatakakage vs Kotonowaka – Kotonowaka has yet to win his first match, and I am not prone to give him much credit in today’s match against future Ozeki Wakatakakage. I find myself really enjoying Wakatakakage’s sumo right now, as he has progressed to the point where he is starting to make it look easy, and a careful observer can spot the details and fitness of how he can subtly do things that deliver him wins. Their history is 4-2 in favor of Wakatakakage, but I would be surprised if Kotonowaka can give him too much trouble today.

Takakeisho vs Meisei – Takakeisho’s pride and unblemished record took a dent on day 3 thanks to Takayasu. Today he’s got winless Meisei, who has only beaten the Ozeki 3 times in 10 tries. In spite of his day 3 loss, I still expect Takakeisho to be in competition for the cup in week 2.

Ichinojo vs Shodai – A big test for Shodai today, as he has a 5-13 career deficit against Ichinojo. Granted, with the media nonsense swirling around Ichinojo right now, he may be distracted by something other than Shodai’s “Wall of Daikon”, which is a shame. Shodai needs 6 more wins to clear kadoban, or face demotion to Sekiwake.