It’s too early to start analyzing the yusho race in earnest, and a lot can change in the standings throughout the banzuke in the remaining 6 days, but we can take a quick first look at who might be trading divisions come July.
Makuuchi Men in Danger
M13w Ichinojo has retired. Bottom-ranked M17e Kagayaki (3-6) is two losses away from punching his ticket to Juryo. Others who need to start winning in a hurry are Ms15e Ichiyamamoto (3-6) and Ms16e Mitoryu (4-5). Oho, Aoiyama, Daishoho, and a few others are not out of the woods yet.
Juryo Promotion Contenders
Unlike Makuuchi, Juryo actually features two undefeated rikishi on Day 9—J1e Gonoyama and wunderkind J8w Ochiai, whose escape move today against veteran Hidenoumi was positively Hakuho-like. Gonoyama is definitely coming up. Ochiai, by virtue of his low rank, needs a few more wins and some banzuke luck on his side. Two wins back in the yusho race at 7-2 are J1w Shonannoumi, J3e Bushozan, and J8e Atamifuji; the first two are strong promotion contenders. Rounding out the list of those with realistic top-division hopes is the J4 duo of Oshoma and Roga, both 6-4. Plenty of exciting bouts matching up these contenders are yet to come, starting on Day 10 with Gonoyama vs. Atamifuji (who took their one prior bout) and Ochiai vs. Bushozan, who’ve never met.
Juryo Men in Danger
J5e Tochinoshin has retired. His intai and Ichinojo’s create two openings in the second division. Winless veteran J9w Chiyonokuni, who may be next on the intai watch, needs 5 wins to stay sekitori, as does last tournament’s lucky escapee, J14w Tsushimanada (3-6). There is a long list of others still in danger: injured J11e Hidenoumi (3-6), J14e Tokihayate (5-4), J12e Tomokaze (4-5), J10w Kitanowaka (3-6), J10e Chiyomaru (3-6), J13e Fujiseiun (5-4), and even higher-ranked J5w Akua (1-8) and winless J3w Enho. As for who is vying to replace them, see my Makushita post. I expect quite a few cross-division “exchange bouts” down the stretch, starting tomorrow with Hayatefuji vs. Tokihayate.
After 9 days and 5 rounds of bouts, the action in Makushita is heating up!
As a reminder, the Makushita yusho race is essentially a seven-round single-elimination tournament in which the 120 or so rikishi are reduced by half over two-day rounds until one man with a 7-0 record takes the title (occasionally, same-heya rikishi and other wrinkles throw a wrench into the works, and we end up with a playoff and a 6-1 champion). A 7-0 record from Ms1-Ms15 is a near-guarantee of promotion to Juryo, which otherwise usually requires a winning record from Ms1-Ms5. Five rounds have been completed so far, and we are left with 4 undefeated wrestlers. The next round, held on Day 11, will give us the two finalists.
This was the quarterfinal bracket:
Ms2w Shishi vs. Ms13e Takahashi
Ms18w Hitoshi vs. Ms26w Kiryuko
Ms29w Wakatakamoto vs. Ms42e Daishomaru
Ms49e Otani vs. Ms58e Okinohama
Shishi prevailed in a tough match against Takahashi, going to 5-0 and all-but-assuring a Juryo debut. This also eliminated the last promotion contender from the Ms6-Ms15 extended zone. Shishi’s next opponent will be Kiryuko, who bested Hitoshi. Wakatakamoto, the oldest brother of Wakatakakage and Wakamotoharu, got taken out of the race by former maegashira Daishomaru, who will next meet Okinohama, the lowest-ranked and least distinguished of the quarterfinalists.
Two Juryo slots are open due to the retirements of Ichinojo and Tochinoshin. At least two more seem likely to open up by the end of the basho. In addition to 5-0 Shishi, the top-ranked Ms1e Shiden (4-1) should be a lock for promotion following today’s defeat of Ms6e Mukainakano (3-2). I for one will be happy to see him make a proper sekitori debut after his one previous appearance on the Juryo banzuke was derailed by the Hidenoumi gambling nano-scandal. The other Ms1, Kawazoe (3-2), who’s been fighting hurt, lost to Ms5e Yuma (4-1), who ruthlessly targeted Kawazoe’s injured ankle with a “sweep the leg” move straight out of Karate Kid. Both still have decent promotion chances. Ms2e Kotokuzan (2-3), Ms3w Chiyonoumi (2-3), and Ms4w Hayatefuji (2-2) must win out just to have a chance. Ms4e Tochimusashi (2-3) and Ms5w Terutsuyoshi (2-3) are mathematically alive but will need a lot of help even if they win out. Look for the next update on Day 11.
A wild and tumultuous day of sumo in the Kokugikan. Stand out performance from Wakamotoharu, Kiribayama and of course Meisei. With that kinboshi win, we are back to a three way tie for the lead of the Natsu basho, and we have one day left in act 2. I do not expect Meisei to hold strong into act 3, as that’s when things get really very tough. I do hope that we get to see Asanoyama fight some higher ranked rikishi, and for the fun of it, see Hokuseiho take on some of the big names as well. I think the scheduling team has that in mind, when Hokuseiho fights Meisei tomorrow.
Highlight Matches
Oho defeats Myogiryu – Sumo fans, I do think maybe Oho finally remembered where he left his sumo. He has won 4 of the last 5, and does now look like he’s serious about competing. Myogiryu gets a healthy portion of fault for his loss today. He came in strong from the tachiai, seeking to get his hands inside. But in his rush he got too far ahead of his toes, counting on Oho to be there to support his forward pressure. Oho steps away and puts Myogiryu on the clay, improving to 5-4.
Kotoeko defeats Mitoryu – Mitoryu could not dominate the inside lane, and as the match progressed Kotoeko attacked increasingly at will. For a moment Mitoryu had some kind of brutal ear-hold on Kotoeko that looked pretty painful; mimiyotsu? This had the expected effect of pissing off Kotoeko, and the result was a oshitaoshi three steps later. Both end the day at 4-5.
Aoiyama defeats Kagayaki – Ok, all of my writings about Aoiyama and not being able to work with a lot of forward pressure may require revision. He goes chest to chest with Kagayaki, and gets a double inside morozashi grip, and proceeds to walk Kagayaki out. Both end the day 3-6.
Daishoho defeats Ichiyamamoto – Ichiyamamoto’s opening double arm thrusting volley gets deflected, and he ends up chest to chest with Daishoho. This was always going to favor Daishoho, and after a bit of a struggle Ichiyamamoto realizes he’s just going to have to wait and see what Daishoho is going to do with his hold. Daishoho seems to be in no rush, and the stalemate goes on.. and on. At long last Daishoho gets his left hand on Ichiyamamoto’s belt, and three steps later the match ends. Both exit the dohyo tired with 3-6 scores.
Tsurugisho defeats Takarafuji – Whatever fighting power Takarafuji had salted away for the 15 days of Natsu is long since spent, and it seems each day is an attempt to survive as best he can. Today he is little more than ballast for Tsurugisho, as Takarafuji can only put up token defense. Tsurugisho improves to 6-3.
Asanoyama defeats Ryuden – I give a lot of credit to Ryuden, who frequently suffers from hip problems. He took the fight to Asanoyama, and had a good yotsu-zumo stand off in the middle of this match. Once they transitioned to mutual lift and twist, he nearly had Asanoyama off balance, but not close enough. Asanoyama implodes Ryuden’s pivot attempt to win the match by yoritaoshi, improving to 8-1 and securing kachi-koshi for Natsu.
Hokuseiho defeats Onosho – How big is big to Hokuseiho? Very big indeed. Onosho gives him a full power frontal at the tachiai, and bounces off. He does stand Hokuseiho, but his follow up attack only yields a Hokuseiho right hand mawashi grip. That’s all this giant needs to swing Onosho around and then buck him out like he is shifting crates on a loading dock. Dayym! Hokuseiho now 7-2.
Chiyoshoma defeats Tamawashi – It’s tough to watch Tamawashi struggle like this. He does nearly induce a slippiotoshi in Chiyoshoma at the tachiai, but once Chiyoshoma recovered his balance, he dominates this match. Very smooth finish with a sotogake leg trip to take the win and advance to 5-4.
Hiradoumi defeats Hokutofuji – Hokutofuji seems to want to overpower Hiradoumi, and had ramped up the forward pressure nicely. But a Hiradoumi side step sent Hokutofuji to the dohyo for the win. Hiradoumi now 7-2, keeping pace with the cluster of Ozeki hopefuls.
Takanosho defeats Kotoshoho – Whatever is wrong with Kotoshoho, it caused him to be soft at the tachiai, and on his back across the bales two steps later. Takanosho will take the win and go home happy at 3-6. Kotoshoho make-koshi at 1-8.
Sadanoumi defeats Kinbozan – Kinbozan’s single minded drive to get a right hand frontal grip allowed Sadanoumi to switch to plan B, and left Kinbozan with any effective offense. Sadanoumi turned Kinbozan to the side and ran him out for something between an okiuridashi and a yorikiri. Sadanoumi now 5-4.
Mitakeumi defeats Ura – I think Ura is out of fuel for now. He comes straight at Mitakeumi, finds a wall of flesh, then cannot find a grip or an escape. Ura figures this out, and tries a pull and gets flattened out by oshitaoshi, Mitakeumi now 6-3.
Tobizaru defeats Nishikifuji – Tobizaru threw caution to the wind as he tried a risky pulling move against Nishikifuji. This came about after neither man could set up a dominant position in the match. But Tobizaru did manage to get Nishikifuji down before he himself stepped out. The win puts Tobizaru at 4-5 at the end of day 9.
Shodai defeats Midorifuji – We did get to see the “Wall of Daikon” today, but it was not nearly as much fun against a smaller opponent like Midorifuji as it is against someone quite large. Maybe Shodai can fight Hokuseiho this basho? Shodai gets a win by kimedashi and is now 4-5.
Kotonowaka defeats Abi – Points to Abi for getting his thrusting attack going, but like other matches this basho, he gets himself into a body position that cries out for his opponent to counter attack. The trick to Abi-zumo is to keep so much forward pressure on center mass that his opponent can only respond by moving back. Kotonowaka ducks out of a thrusting volley, slips behind and Abi gets an okuridashi. Both end the day 4-5.
Wakamotoharu defeats Hoshoryu – Nicely done. That right shoulder strike from Wakamotoharu took Hoshoryu’s right hand out of the equation at the tachiai. Hoshoryu likes to lead with his right, and it completely disrupted Hoshoryu’s opening move. There was a poorly formulated attempt at a leg trip from Hoshoryu to rescue himself, but Wakamotoharu shoved the off balance mess that was Hoshoryu out for the win, improving to 7-2.
Kiribayama defeats Daieisho – Excellent strategy from Kiribayama. He keeps the gap between himself and Daieisho small, never letting Daieisho extend his arms and employ his mega-thrust technique. There is a brief, about one second, grapple that sets up the tsukiotoshi that drops Daieisho to the clay. Kiribayama now 7-2.
Nishikigi defeats Takakeisho – As we mentioned in the preview from last night, if Nishikigi was able to get that iron grip on any part of Takakeisho, he would drive the Ozeki out of the ring. Takakeisho chose to do a full frontal charge at the tachiai, and was captured at once. The result was predicted, Nishikigi now 3-6.
Meisei defeats Terunofuji – Meisei did a fantastic job of disrupting Terunofuji’s attacks, always landing his move a split second before the Yokozuna, and forcing him to respond rather that attack. This allowed Meisei to get a odd but workable grip on Terunofuji’s right shoulder and work that into a yorikiri. Kinboshi for Meisei as he is now kachi-koshi at 8-1.
With the middle weekend behind us, we are now 7 matches away from everyone’s final score. There is still no clear cut sign of a funnel to march as many rikishi as possible to day 15 7-7 “Darwin Matches”, so I am going to guess for this basho the scheduling crew have decided to let things unfold as they may. There still seems to be a prevalence to match mid-score with mid-score, and bad score with bad score.
With both Asanoyama and Meisei taking their first losses on day 8, they both have their next chance at kachi-koshi today. I think Asanoyama may have underestimated Hokuseiho, so I am eager for their rematch in July. Meisei may be thrown off his sumo by the loss, but I hope not. I would like to see both of them pressure Terunofuji during act 3 in the race for the cup.
Natsu Leaderboard
Terunofuji is the sole leader of the yusho race. As the Yokozuna and multiple yusho winner, he controls the outcome. It will be up to some brave soul to put dirt on him if there is to be any chance of the two chasers trying their luck to take home the hardware.
Oho (4-4) vs Myogiryu (6-2) – Oho showed some signs of life in his day 8 loss to Kotoeko, and I think this match is an opportunity for him to start clawing his way toward a kachi-koshi. He has a 3-1 career record against Myogiryu, including winning both prior matches this year.
Mitoryu (4-4) vs Kotoeko (3-5) – I would like to see Kotoeko build a string of white stars out of his brilliant won over Oho on day 8. He has an even 2-2 record against the bulky Mitoryu, but has lost both prior matches this year. It may be down to the tremendous 50 kg weight difference between them.
Aoiyama (2-6) vs Kagayaki (3-5) – Aoiyama has no ability to hold ground, and won’t stand up to frontal pressure for more than a fe seconds. To win this match Kagayaki will want to set his defenses, then push with all he can muster. Aoiyama holds an 8-4 career advantage, but that may not matter given that he is hurt.
Ichiyamamoto (3-5) vs Daishoho (2-6) – Both men are on a solid make-koshi path. Both would need to win nearly all of their remaining 7 matches to get to 8 at this point, so each of them is hoping to limit the fall. The situation is a bit more of a concern for Ichiyamamoto, who is ranked near the bottom of the banzuke at Maegashira 15 East.
Tsurugisho (5-3) vs Takarafuji (3-5) – These two have mirror scores, and a 3-3 career record. But in terms of health and capability when they step on the dohyo for day 8, I give Tsurugisho the advantage of being less banged up. Takarafuji’s sumo depends heavily on his ability to hold ground under relentless attack, but his current condition seems to preclude that.
Ryuden (3-5) vs Asanoyama (7-1) – I am certain that Asanoyama will be quite careful with his sumo today. He should not have lost that day 8 fight with Hokuseiho, and he gave up a share of the top spot in the race for the Emperor’s Cup. They last fought on day 11 of that odd “silent basho” in Osaka during March of 2020, with Asanoyama winning by yorikiri. An Asanoyama win today would be kachi-koshi.
Onosho (5-3) vs Hokuseiho (6-2) – First ever match between Hakuho’s giant and the junior tadpole. I am going to guess that Hokuseiho gets the over the shoulder belt hold, and we get to see what Onosho is going to do about it.
Chiyoshoma (4-4) vs Tamawashi (3-5) – Will we see more high amplitude sumo from Tamawashi, like what he was able to produce in his day 8 win over Ryuden? Not sure how much more of that his body can support, but I am all in favor of watching him try. He has a 5-1 career record against Chiyoshoma.
Hokutofuji (4-4) vs Hiradoumi (6-2) – Hokutofuji is getting dangerously close to establishing a winning record, which could rob him of the “Most Powerful Make-Koshi In All of Sumo!!” if he is not careful. With any luck, Hiradoumi will block Hokutofuji’s nodowa opening gambit, and quickly put him on the clay. They share a 1-1 career record.
Takanosho (2-6) vs Kotoshoho (1-7) – Both of these guys need to get their fighting form back somehow for July. A loss today for Kotoshoho would be make-koshi for him. They both share a 2-2 career record.
Kinbozan (3-5) vs Sadanoumi (4-4) – Kinbozan has lost 3 of the last 4 matches. His loss 2 days ago to Terunofuji is understandable, but his loss on day 8 to Nishikifuji is not. I hope he did not get hurt in his fight with Hokutofuji on day 5, but I suspect maybe he did. If he’s less than genki, he could be an easy target for speed demon Sadanoumi.
Ura (3-5) vs Mitakeumi (5-3) – At this point I think Ura is headed for make-koshi. His form is poor, and we have seen little of his trademark physics bending sumo. Starting with his loss day 5 to Terunofuji, he has lost 4 matches in a row. Add to that Mitakeumi’s 6-1 career advantage, and I think we will see Ura with his 5th consecutive loss today.
Tobizaru (3-5) vs Nishikifuji (2-6) – All things as they are this May, this should be a Tobizaru win. Both of them are on solid tracks towards a losing record on day 15, but I think Tobizaru still has some good sumo left to deliver this Natsu basho. Tobizaru won their only prior fight.
Shodai (3-5) vs Midorifuji (3-5) – Both of them have 3-5 records, and this match is to figure out who is going to have a slightly easier path to 8 for the remainder of the basho. Neither one of them is anywhere close to their optimum fighting form, and have been struggling all through week 1. Can either of them rally starting week 2 and finish strong? Shodai holds a 3-1 career advantage.
Kotonowaka (3-5) vs Abi (4-4) – Kotonowaka looks to be on a path to vacate his san’yaku slot for Nagoya, unless he can win 5 of the remaining 7 matches. Something he could do if he was a lower rank, and in good form – neither of which are true right now. Abi has some fans speculating that maybe one of his shoulders is not quite up to spec for now, as he seems to have lost some of his thrusting power. They share a 2-2 career record.
Wakamotoharu (6-2) vs Hoshoryu (6-2) – A high interest match as the schedulers look to narrow the field at the top of the yusho race. One of these rikishi will stay in the hunt for the cup, the other will drop out after today’s match. Hoshoryu holds a 6-2 career advantage, but Wakamotoharu has made a step change improvement to his sumo this year.
Kiribayama (6-2) vs Daieisho (6-2) – Another pivotal match to narrow the competition for the cup. This time with mega-thruster Daieisho taking on the person who I think is the lead Ozeki hopeful, Kiribayama. They have a fairly even 8-6 career score, and I think it will come down to Kiribayama being able to absorb about 20 seconds or so of high power Daieisho sumo to get to the point where he can take over.
Nishikigi (2-6) vs Takakeisho (6-2) – I think that if Nishikigi can get a belt grip, he could win this one. He has onl beaten Takakeisho once in 7 tries, but given his strength toe to toe with some of the toughest rikishi in the sport, I think he has the grip strength and the lower body to hold on under a Takakeisho counter attack.
Terunofuji (8-0) vs Meisei (7-1) – Another fight meant to narrow the race for the cup. I expect Terunofuji to win this one without too much drama, in spite of Meisei’s excellent 7-1 record at the start of day 9. Out of their 10 career matches, 8 have gone to Terunofuji, thought Meisei did drop the Yokozuna on day 12 of Hatsu 2022 via katasukashi.
