It’s too early to start analyzing the yusho race in earnest, and a lot can change in the standings throughout the banzuke in the remaining 6 days, but we can take a quick first look at who might be trading divisions come July.
Makuuchi Men in Danger
M13w Ichinojo has retired. Bottom-ranked M17e Kagayaki (3-6) is two losses away from punching his ticket to Juryo. Others who need to start winning in a hurry are Ms15e Ichiyamamoto (3-6) and Ms16e Mitoryu (4-5). Oho, Aoiyama, Daishoho, and a few others are not out of the woods yet.
Juryo Promotion Contenders
Unlike Makuuchi, Juryo actually features two undefeated rikishi on Day 9—J1e Gonoyama and wunderkind J8w Ochiai, whose escape move today against veteran Hidenoumi was positively Hakuho-like. Gonoyama is definitely coming up. Ochiai, by virtue of his low rank, needs a few more wins and some banzuke luck on his side. Two wins back in the yusho race at 7-2 are J1w Shonannoumi, J3e Bushozan, and J8e Atamifuji; the first two are strong promotion contenders. Rounding out the list of those with realistic top-division hopes is the J4 duo of Oshoma and Roga, both 6-4. Plenty of exciting bouts matching up these contenders are yet to come, starting on Day 10 with Gonoyama vs. Atamifuji (who took their one prior bout) and Ochiai vs. Bushozan, who’ve never met.
Juryo Men in Danger
J5e Tochinoshin has retired. His intai and Ichinojo’s create two openings in the second division. Winless veteran J9w Chiyonokuni, who may be next on the intai watch, needs 5 wins to stay sekitori, as does last tournament’s lucky escapee, J14w Tsushimanada (3-6). There is a long list of others still in danger: injured J11e Hidenoumi (3-6), J14e Tokihayate (5-4), J12e Tomokaze (4-5), J10w Kitanowaka (3-6), J10e Chiyomaru (3-6), J13e Fujiseiun (5-4), and even higher-ranked J5w Akua (1-8) and winless J3w Enho. As for who is vying to replace them, see my Makushita post. I expect quite a few cross-division “exchange bouts” down the stretch, starting tomorrow with Hayatefuji vs. Tokihayate.
I beleive Ochiai will need a Zensho to get promoted from his spot. But that guy is a beast.
I’d say 13 wins is a lock. Anything less and it depends on the rest of the exchange picture—guys have gone up from J8 with 10-5 (most recently, Hiradoumi) and missed out with 12-3.
Kagayaki needs at least 3 more losses because he has super banzuke luck.
Yeah he could survive with a 7-8, though I expect enough promotion pressure to make that unlikely
Suddenly even Onosato might be back in the race for Juryo!
He is something about number 5 of the promotion contenders right now and as there seem to be half a dozen possible demotions he still might achieve his goal by winning out and with a little banzuke luck.
The only promotions from that far down without a zensho were after the 2010/2011 scandals when a bunch of guys were forced to retire. We might have some very lucky survivors in Juryo instead.