Natsu Recap Heading Into Final Week

lksumo Natsu Basho 2018

 

Eight days of the Natsu basho are in the books; seven days remain. We’ve seen a lot of exciting sumo, and more is in store, as almost everything is still in play. Only Ozeki hopeful Tochinoshin has come through the first week unscathed, and only vastly over-promoted M3 Yutakayama (previous career-high rank: M11) has yet to record a victory, despite some valiant efforts, and should occupy a slot in more comfortable banzuke territory in Nagoya.

The Yusho Race

Each of two the active Yokozuna only has one blemish on his record, and both are very much in the yusho race at 7-1. They trail only Tochinoshin, who has yet to face Hakuho or Kakuryu. The matches among those three may well prove decisive, though there’s plenty of time left for wrenches to be thrown into the works. I’m going to go out on a limb and guess that the other 7-1 rikishi, M11 Chiyonokuni, isn’t really going to figure into the yusho race by the final weekend, but if he keeps winning, he can make things interesting, as can someone in the six-man 2-loss group.

The San’yaku

As Bruce noted, the Ozeki corps is in sorry shape. Injured Takayasu is absent and will be kadoban in Nagoya. The one competing Ozeki, Goeido, has lost 3 in a row and 5 of the last 6 to drop to 3-5. He can only afford two more losses if he doesn’t want to join Takayasu on “probation”, has yet to face any of the “big three”, and I wouldn’t install him as a big favorite against Ichinojo tomorrow, or Mitakeumi, or his likely remaining maegashira opponents (Shodai and Kotoshogiku?). We can only hope Tochinoshin wins the requisite number of his remaining matches (somewhere between 2 and 4) to earn promotion and shore up the depleted second-highest rank!

In lower San’yaku, Endo’s very sad injury will open up a Komusubi slot. Tochinoshin’s promotion would open up a Sekiwake slot. The other Sekiwake, Ichinojo, is 4-4, and has shown us both unstoppable sumo and his old habit of giving up with only token resistance. He needs 4 more wins to defend his rank and 3 to stay in San’yaku, and has yet to face the two Yokozuna, Goeido, or Mitakeumi. The other Komusubi, Mitakeumi, is 5-3, and if he can avoid one of his recent second-half fades, he has a good chance of moving back up to Sekiwake.

It’s way too early to predict how the upper maegashira ranks will shake out, especially with some of them already having faced all of their San’yaku opponents and others just starting to do so, but the 6-2 trio of Shodai, Kotoshogiku, and Ikioi currently has the inside track for San’yaku promotion.

The Demotion Zone

Uncle Sumo, Aminishiki, is in the worst shape at 1-7 and with no room for error at M16w. He would need to win out to stay in Makuuchi, which would take a miracle. Ishiura and Arawashi are also not looking good with their 2-6 records, although they have plenty of bouts left to improve their fortunes.

Everyone ranked M5 or higher is safe from demotion, with the exception of luckless Yutakayama, who seems certain to pick up the one win he needs in the last 7 days. Also safe after eight days are Takarafuji, Daishomaru, Chiyonokuni, Kagayaki, Yoshikaze, Chiyomaru, and Hokutofuji (who seems to be back from the dead). I will update this list as the remainder of the basho unfolds.

 

 

Ozeki Goeido In A Perilous State

Bruce H Gōeidō (豪栄道), Natsu Basho 2018 ,

Exploding Robot

Long-serving Ozeki Goeido lost in a shocking match against Daieisho in day 8 action, dropping to 3-5. It was notable because while Daieisho is a solid rikishi, he should be no trouble for a man who is clearly capable of dispatching Yokozuna. Instead, the troubled Ozeki found himself stood upright, pushed around and thrust out on the east side of the dohyo. The sumo world is always very tight lipped about injuries to rikishi, especially during a basho, but I am going to assume that Goeido has re-injured his ankle. That injury limits the amount of offensive force he can muster, and the amount of lateral / shifting pressure he can maintain. This makes him weak going forward, and slow to turn or move side to side.

Goeido had his right ankle completely reconstructed with pins and screws last year, and returned to action possibly before the surgery could completely heal. This is, in part, driven by kadoban rules for Ozeki and the 60 day period between honbasho.

With this loss, Goedio now needs to win 5 of the remaining 7 matches. This may be impossible as he must still face Tochinoshin, Hakuho and Kakuryu. A make-koshi for Natsu would mean the Nagoya basho would once again feature both Ozeki kadoban, and facing a risk of demotion.

Before any readers assume too much, we cheer Goeido when he’s fighting well, and scold him when he takes short cuts or seems to just phone it in. In this case, it’s clear he’s not able to generate full offensive power, and we have to assume injury. A healthy Goeido is a terrifying rikishi of nearly pure offense. We wish him well and hope he can find some way to return to health.

Tochinoshin Kachi-Koshi, Seems Unstoppable

Bruce H Kachi Koshi, Natsu Basho 2018, Tochinoshin (栃ノ心), Ōzeki (大関)

Tochinoshin

Georgian Ozeki hopeful Tochinoshin won over Ichinojo during day 8 competition in Tokyo, handily besting him in a contest of strength that seemed to replay many of the themes of their Osaka battle of the burly. With this win, Tochinoshin improved to an impressive 8-0, remaining undefeated and securing his kachi-koshi at the earliest possible time. With every other top division man nursing at least one loss, he is in sole lead for the yusho going into the final week.

Tochinoshin’s eye seem to be firmly fixed to his prize, 11+ wins and a valid bid for elevation to sumo’s second highest rank – Ozeki. At present there are two Ozeki, one hurt and one struggling. This is a far cry from two years ago when eh sport had four Ozeki, most of whom were incredibly genki at any given moment. The process for his elevation would take place by decision by the Sumo Kyokai and the Yokozuna Deliberation Committee. There has been some speculation among the fans on how much of his January yusho would count towards an Ozeki promotion, as it did not happen when he was ranked in San’yaku. With his fantastic record thus far at Natsu, that question may have been set aside. He is now the bonafide man to beat for the Emperors cup, and a second yusho in 3 tournaments would be undeniable qualification for promotion.

With one week to go, we will see the scheduling committee try to throw everything they can into the mix, but there only remain one very questionable Ozeki, and two Yokozuna above him. Interestingly enough, in hind sight his fusensho win over Endo may turn out to have been pivotal to the race to the Emperor’s cup.

Wakaichro Wins Day 8 Match

Bruce H Natsu Basho 2018, Wakaichiro (若一郎)

Wakaichiro May 20

In the course of our live blogging spectacular overnight, we started our evening with news that Wakaichiro prevailed in his day 8 match, boosting his tournament record to a respectable 3-1. Fans have noticed that Wakakichro always seems to fight better in Tokyo, which is an interesting oddity. He is now one win away from hi kachi-koshi, which would keep him perfectly alighted to his pattern of winning in Tokyo, losing on the road.

Sadly at the moment, we don’t have any video to share of his win, but hopefully it will crop up in the boundless fountain that is the internet at some point.