It’s almost all done for the lower ranks, with a handful of rikishi left to face their 7th opponent today or Sunday. Day 13 saw wins by Wakamotoharu, Ichiyamamoto, Wakatakamoto (that means all 3 Onami brothers won on day 13), Naya, Terunofuji, Shoji and Kitanowaka. That’s almost a complete sweep for our list!
For day 14, the roster is lighter, but there are still some great matches yet to come.
Hoshoryu vs Kizenryu – It’s time for a Darwin match with only one exiting the dohyo with a winning record. Hoshoryu won their only prior match, during Hatsu this year. Two high-skill rikishi with everything on the line in a single match. One will be promoted, the other demoted for July. This is what sumo is all about.
Midorifuji vs Sakigake – Another winner take all match. This time it is the challenger, Sakigake, who has won the prior match. The winner gets promoted, the loser gets demoted. At stake is likely a slot in the Makushita joi-jin, with a chance at promotion to Juryo up for grabs July.
Akua vs Nogami – Akua is already kachi-koshi, but he needs a bit more juice to put him into the top of Makushita for July if he wants to make a bid to return to Juryo. These matches on day 14 are going to be fast, hard and brutal.
Roga vs Kaizen – Roga is already kachi-koshi as well, but a 5th win might just break him out of Sandanme if the stars align. Kaizen has already spent a few basho in Makushita, and will bring that experience to bare in today’s match vs Roga’s raw power.
Wakaichiro vs Goshinryu – Our favorite Jonidan rikishi looks to hit escape velocity and return to Sandanme today against Goshinryu, who is fighting at his highest ever rank. Wakaichiro’s sumo seems to have gotten much more efficient this basho, so I am looking for a high energy oshi-battle between these two.
With note…
Kenho vs Sasaki – We have not followed Kenho this tournament, but he also faces a Darwin match on day 14, and could find himself with a winning record if he can overcome youngster and light weight Sasaki. Good luck Kenho!
The gyoji is right there, looking directly at the move in question
The Yusho Race
I should be delighted that with two days to go, one of my favorite rikishi, Asanoyama, is the sole leader and in strong position to claim an improbable hiramaku championship. But I can’t be, because after today’s decision, the yusho race is a travesty. We should have three deserving rikishi tied with 10-3 records going into the final weekend, with an exciting series of decisive bouts to look forward to. Instead, we have an 11-2 leader with a giant asterisk, a 10-3 chaser (Kakuryu), and four rikishi in the hunt at 9-4 (Tochinoshin, Goeido, Tamawashi, and Meisei).
Tomorrow, Tochinoshin, who can’t help but wonder along with his fans if Hanlon’s razor is a sufficient explanation for today’s events, faces Kakuryu, while Asanoyama has a date with Goeido. I’m hoping for the only outcome that would restore some fairness to the proceedings: Tochinoshin defeats Kakuryu and Goeido bests Asanoyama. We won’t know the Day 15 schedule until around the time of Day 14 bouts, and possibly later, but we should see Kakuryu vs. Asanoyama and Tochinoshin vs. Takayasu, with the possibility of a playoff involving anywhere from two to six rikishi. The latter would be a fitting ending to this mess of a basho.
Tochinoshin’s Ozeki Chances
I can’t even.
The San’yaku Ranks
Between Aoiyama’s revival, Mitakeumi’s customary late fade, and the Tochinoshin debacle, it is still anyone’s guess how many potential open slots there will be—anything between one and four is still quite possible. Tamawashi is in the lead for the first slot that opens, followed by Asanoyama, Abi, Ryuden, Meisei, and Takarafuji.
The Demotion/Promotion Race
Chiyoshoma (M17e, 4-9) is out of lives and should be going down no matter what after today’s loss. There’s also little chance that they’ll keep Tokushoryu (M14e, 3-10) in the top division with double-digit losses. And the only question with Takagenji (J2e, 12-1) is how high up the maegashira ranks he’ll debut.
Beyond that, nothing is certain. Ishiura (5-8) is now guaranteed a make-koshi record at M16w, but it’s possible he can survive by winning his final two bouts. He seems certain to go down with another loss. Kagayaki (M10e, 3-10) and Terutsuyoshi (M15e, 6-7) should each be safe with another victory, and might be safe anyway given the dearth of legitimate promotion candidates in Juryo.
After Takagenji, the best promotion case belongs to Kotoyuki (J6e, 10-3), the only man still with a chance to deny Takagenji the Juryo yusho. He needs one more victory to clinch a record that normally warrants promotion, but it seems probable that he’ll return to Makuuchi anyway given the high likelihood of at least three demotions. Toyonoshima (J1e, 7-6), who has followed up a 6-1 start with a 1-5 fade, can clinch his own promotion and ensure Ishiura’s demotion when the two meet tomorrow. Finally, Wakatakakage (J2w, 6-7) is still hanging around the outskirts of the promotion race, hoping that a combination of him winning out and others losing might allow him to sneak into the top division with a record that would normally fall short, a la Tokushoryu and Enho last basho.
At the risk of having a post that’s more controversial than anything the president of the USA is going to do in the Kokugikan two days from now… I happen to disagree with Bruce’s opinion regarding the Tochinoshin/Asanoyama decision.
Possible, but inconclusive, touch
It’s true that Onomatsu oyakata is a well-known butcher of kyogi explanations. But is he a well-known butcher of actual decisions?
Before we go, let’s mention that no single frame can be proof that there was no touch. Take a look at the photo posted that Bruce posted earlier:
Here it’s clearly not touching
But this frame could have been taken just before or just after the critical moment. If you have a touching frame, it proves a touch. But if you have a not-touching frame, it doesn’t prove that there was no touch. Take a look at the video:
So, was that a touch? Was that just a shadow? Not even the luckiest photographer can conclude that there is no touch at all. The frame I posted could be a touch, or it could be shadow filling in the pixels. The cameras are not right next to the dohyo, and the resolution is not all that good.
An article at Asahi Shimbun (paywalled, but a good soul on Twitter took screenshots) reveals to us what happened during the monoii and the kyogi (conference) that followed it.
The monoii was raised by Hanaregoma oyakata, who was the one sitting closest to where tochinoshin’s foot was hanging over the tawara. He saw it touch, and raised his hand to mark a monoii.
The judges needed to make a call about it. Point one: the call cannot be a torinaoshi. Torinaoshi may only be called in cases where both rikishi touch ground at the same time (“dotai”). This wasn’t the case here. Either Tochinoshin touched out, in which case Asanoyama was still in and wins, or he didn’t touch out, in which case Tochinoshin is alive and wins.
The judges then called the video room. Unfortunately, the video room told them they cannot see a touch or a janome disturbance.
Point two: that doesn’t mean there was no touch. It just means that the videos they had were not conclusive. As I said, the frame I posted above could mean he touched, or it could just be shadow that fills the pixels.
Point three: a light enough touch would not leave a discernible mark on the janome. That is, discernible by the same video cameras. Yes, Tochinoshin is a heavy guy. But his huge muscles were working hard at keeping that heel from touching ground. If it did, it didn’t do so with all of his weight on it.
So at this point, the referees start to discuss the matter, because they have to reach a decision. All they have to go on is what they saw, and the only one who saw it up close is Hanaregoma. People in the crowd shout for a redo, but again, that’s impossible. Hanaregoma suggests a vote. But Onomatsu oyakata decides that Hanaregoma should call it, because he was the one who saw it and the other’s haven’t. Hanaregoma says there was a very light touch, and that’s the decision.
When a monoii is called, the ultimate decision is the judges’, and theirs alone. If there is a conclusive video that shows the monoii is wrong, it’s fine. But the video is there to help the judges – it’s never the decider.
Now, I’ve seen references to football or other sports. Those do not apply here. In sumo, the gyoji has to make a call at the end of each bout, no matter if he is sure or not. He has to call it even if there is a dotai. So the ultimate decision is not his, it’s the judges. One of my followers complained “if there is no conclusive evidence, it’s ridiculous to reverse the gyoji’s gunbai”. But the gunbai is not holy. It’s not “right by default”. A judge sat half a meter from the dohyo, was looking at the tawara, and saw something that the referee didn’t see from his side.
The shimpan don’t watch the bouts for entertainment value like we do. They concentrate on contact points and centers of gravity. While we may be admiring somebody’s kotenage, they will be watching the boring feet.
Were they right? Was Tochinoshin out? Well, it’s hard to tell. Because the video is inconclusive – even the good footage that is available to the video room, which is better than the footage that’s currently circulating through social media, most of which is taken with a smartphone from a TV screen (probably including the footage I included above).
Only one man saw the alleged touch. He may have been wrong. But was the decision making process bad? I think not. In particular, I don’t think Onomatsu oyakata’s decision to let the only man who saw it decide is unreasonable. The others didn’t see it, so they only act on hearsay. He has to have a decision by the end. It’s a tough call, but that’s what he had to work with.
But yes, he butchered the explanation again.
Bruce – Thanks all for reading and commenting on this post. At this time I am going to end the ability to add further comments to this post. The call and the win / loss are recorded, and the tally has been settled. Endless thanks to Herouth for wading into a hot button subject and taking the time to explain.
There are 2 days left in the basho, and we will see if Tochinoshin can make his 10th.
