Nagoya Predictions

lksumo Natsu Basho 2019

Let’s look at what the Natsu results mean for the next banzuke. One fun fact: Asanoyama’s surprise victory means that the Makuuchi banzuke will contain a near-record 9 top-division yusho winners: Hakuho, Kakuryu, Goeido, Takakeisho, Tochinoshin, Mitakeumi, Kotoshogiku, Tamawashi and Asanoyama (plus a 10th, Terunofuji, currently toiling in Sandanme).

Upper San’yaku

Kakuryu will regain the top East Yokozuna rank, displacing absent Hakuho. And there will be four Ozeki on the banzuke for the first time since January 2017. The last such quartet consisted of Kisenosato (promoted, retired), Goeido (still here!), Terunofuji (demoted, just went 6-1 in Sandanme, and should be fighting at the bottom of Makushita next time), and Kotoshogiku (demoted, strong maegashira). The order of the Ozeki should stay the same: Goeido, Takayasu, Takakeisho, with Tochinoshin rejoining at O2w. And with that, we wave goodbye to the M17e rank along with its current holder.

Lower San’yaku

Three of the four slots opened up with West Sekiwake Tochinoshin’s re-promotion and the impending demotions of East Sekiwake Ichinojo (5-7-3) and East Komusubi Aoiyama (6-9). As a result, the only returning member, West Komusubi Mitakeumi (9-6), will move up to East Sekiwake. He will be joined at sumo’s third-highest rank by the other “San’yaku regular” over the past couple of years, M3 Tamawashi (10-5).

The open Komusubi ranks will be filled by M4 Abi (10-5) and the yusho winner M8 Asanoyama (12-3). I am not sure which will get the nod for the more prestigious East side: Abi’s tougher schedule or Asanoyama’s championship.

The New Joi

With 10 rikishi in the named ranks, the joi-jin should include the top 6 maegashira, although the line frequently extends further due to absences and occasional scheduling conflicts. The identities of the top 8 maegashira are clear, although their exact order is anything but. We have newcomers M5 Ryuden (10-5), who fought a full San’yaku slate at Natsu and should record his highest career rank of M1e, and the M7 duo of Shodai and Meisei, both also 10-5. For Shodai, this marks a return to his customary upper maegashira rank, while fast-rising Meisei will reach a new career high for the 5th consecutive basho!

Joining them will be San’yaku dropouts Aoiyama and Ichinojo, as well as upper maegashira survivors M1 Hokutofuji and the M2 duo of Endo and Daiesho, all 7-8. With all 8 rikishi arguably deserving to be ranked M1-M3, someone will experience bad banzuke luck.

The Makuuchi-Juryo Exchange

M17e Chiyoshoma (5-10), M16w Ishiura (5-10), and M14e Tokushoryu (4-11) have all booked seats on the Juryo express. Going in the other direction are Juryo yusho winner J2e Takagenji (13-2), who should make his top-division debut in the mid-maegashira ranks, and returnees J6e Kotoyuki (11-4) and J1e Toyonoshima, who just managed to scrape together the necessary 8 wins. The only “edge case” is M15e Terutsuyoshi, whose 6-9 record at that rank is enough to warrant demotion, but the 4th-best promotion case in Juryo belongs to J4w Azumaryu (8-7), and I don’t think that’s good enough to force the exchange.

As was the case last time, the bottom of Makuuchi is a mess, and it will be hard to come up with a banzuke that satisfies all the constraints and doesn’t promote anyone with a losing record. After Kotoeko, who should vault all the way from M15w to M11e (or higher if they place Takagenji here) with only an 8-7 record, there are 3 rikishi with minimal 7-8 make-koshi (M13e Chiyomaru, M13w Sadanoumi, and M14w Enho), two rikishi with weak promotion records from Juryo, and such under-performers as Tochiozan, Nishikigi, Yago, Kagayaki, Kaisei, and Terutsuyoshi, all with between 3 and 6 victories. All deserve to be ranked M14 or lower, yet someone must occupy the M11-M13 ranks.

The Juryo-Makushita Exchange

Basho-long absences and corresponding demotions of J7w Chiyonokuni and J11e Hakuyozan effectively created two extra open slots in Juryo. These should be complemented by the certain demotion of J14e Churanoumi (5-10) and the likely demotions of J13 Irodori (6-9) and J14w Seiro (7-8). Seiro’s survival is made less likely by the fact that there is no luck of strong promotion candidates at the top of Makushita.

Making it across the heaven/hell boundary should be Ms2w Takanofuji (7-0), Takagenji’s twin and fellow yusho-winner, Ms3e Ichiyamamoto (5-2), Ms3w Kizakiumi (5-2), Ms2e Kotokamatani (4-3), and Ms4e Ryuko (6-1). With the exception of Takanofuji, who’ll be making his 3rd trip to Juryo, the others are all debuts, marking an influx of exciting new names into the sekitori ranks. Ms4w Hoshoryu (4-3) will just miss out, but he will be in a great position to earn promotion in July.

Senshuraku bouts from the lower divisions

Herouth Natsu Basho 2019 , , , , , , , , , , ,
Tochikamiyama-Okinohama

The basho is over, and this is our ultimate Natsu 2019 lower division report. The lower division schedule is a little lighter on senshuraku, and we have fewer bouts today.

In Jonokuchi, we wish the giant from Miyagino beya, Toma, farewell and success in losing some weight by the Nagoya basho. Here is his final bout with Yabugasaki. Both are 4-2, Toma is attacking from the left.

Toma extends his balance to 5-2, and we will see him somewhere around Jonidan 60-70-ish in Nagoya.

In Jonidan, we move forward in time to watch the yusho playoff (which takes place at the end of Juryo matches). Tochikamiyama on the left is facing Okinohama on the right, and he is more than a little nervous.

The TV announcer expected a monoii, but apparently, Okinohama was flying while Tochikamiyama still had two feet inside the ring. Tochikamiyama bravely fights the smile that floats to his face, as he wins the yusho.

Next up, in Sandanme, we have Tamakongo (left) facing Kotoozutsu on the right. Or rather, this footage starts when Tamakongo has his bout to us. Tamakongo, if you recall, is Tamawashi’s lone heya-mate. The two are 5-1:

He is now 6-1, and all the rikishi in Kataonami beya have had a wonderfully large kachi-koshi this basho, it turns out.

The more serious Sandanme contest is between Shiraishi and Hokutokawa. Again we move forward in time, as this is a yusho decider. Shiraishi is set to become Tamanoi beya’s next star. Shiraishi attacks from the right:

Shiraishi is completely unfazed by the large crowd gathered for prime time. The Sandanme yusho is his, reminding us of one Oyanagi, who achievede the same in his first basho – nowadays called Yutakayama. Definitely one to watch for Nagoya as well.

Going up to Makushita, we can’t do without the back-flipping Tomisakae from Isegahama beya. He is matched with Takemasa, and both are 4-2. Tomisakae is coming from the left…

…and going straight to the right. Trust Tomisakae, though, to convert a Kotoyuki-style roll into a lithe cartwheel.

Well, maybe not exactly lithe.

Another bout in the 4-2 bracket that was relegated to senshuraku is our friend Kototebakari, facing Ryusei. In this case the video angle is such that Ryusei is with his back to us and Kototebakari attacking from the opposite direction.

Kototebakari was in a bit of danger there for a second, but manages an almost Hakuho-like stop and change of direction, for the win.

Finally, Here is a cynical, yucky bout at the bottom of Juryo. Seiro (right) is 7-7 and needs his kachi koshi to survive in Juryo. Ryuko is 5-1, but at Ms4e, with four kachi-koshi rikishi ranked above him, he needs that Juryo spot to be vacated and his own score to improve, to pass the “hell/heaven” line. This is how he does it:

Kesho mawashi are usually donated by fans. And I know only one man who is a real fan of the Henka. Andy, care to donate a kesho mawashi to Ryuko?

Natsu Winners and Losers

lksumo Natsu Basho 2019

Let’s look at the rikishi who put up the best and the worst performances in Makuuchi in the May basho.

Winner: Asanoyama

Well, obviously. First yusho? Check. Set to make a San’yaku debut? Check. Two special prizes? Check. Lowest-ranked rikishi to win the yusho since 2000, and the first without previous San’yaku experience to do so since 1961? Check. Tachiai is looking forward to seeing how Komusubi Asanoyama fares in Nagoya.

Winner: Tochinoshin

Amid disappointment, controversy, and likely injury, the Georgian still accomplished the one thing that mattered: recording 10 wins and regaining his Ozeki rank.

Winners: Mitakeumi, Tamawashi, Abi, Ryuden, Shodai, Meisei

Aside from Asanoyama, these were the standout performers in the top half of the banzuke. All but Mitakeumi recorded double-digit victories, but Mitakeumi collected his 9 at Komusubi, securing a promotion to Sekiwake and extending his streak of consecutive appearances in lower San’yaku to 15 basho, a modern-day record. [Edit: I thought that Goeido held the record with 14, but those were all at Sekiwake. When he appears at Sekiwake on the Nagoya banzuke, Mitakeumi will assume sole possession of second place for consecutive appearances at Sekiwake or Komusubi; Wakanosato holds the all-time record with 19]. Tamawashi is also set to return to Sekiwake, while Abi will make his San’yaku debut at Komusubi. Ryuden, Shodai and Meisei will take their places right at the top of the maegashira ranks. Abi and Ryuden pick up a special prize apiece to boot.

Winners: Shimanoumi, Tomokaze, Dishoho

These are my top performers in the lower half of the maegashira ranks. Shimanoumi overcame a shaky start to record double-digit wins in his top-division debut, collect a special prize, and set himself up for much tougher opposition in Nagoya (I project him to jump from M12 to M6 on the next banzuke). Tomokaze struggled to get his kachi-koshi in his second tournament in Makuuchi, but he did so with 3 straight victories to close the basho and extended his amazing run of 13 professional tournaments without ever suffering a losing record. And Daishoho, who was lucky to survive his first top-division tournament in March after a 7-8 performance at M16, improved to 9-6 in his second, and looked good doing so. He should be squarely in the mid-maegashira ranks in July. Honorable mention goes to Kotoeko, who looked set to make this list before he lost his final five bouts, and Enho, who fought skillfully and valiantly despite an injury, fell just short of a winning record, but lives to fight in the top division in Nagoya.

Loser: Kakuryu

Sure, he picked up his “Yokozuna kachi-koshi” and the jun-yusho, but for the sole Yokozuna in a tournament with heavily depleted upper ranks, nothing short of the championship would do, especially when he hasn’t won a yusho in a year. Oh, and he handed out a pair of kinboshi.

Losers: The Ozeki

Yes, all three of them. Like Kakuryu, Goeido and “Next Yokozuna” Takayasu yet again failed to capitalize on a golden opportunity to win their second and first championship, respectively. And Takakeisho got hurt in his Ozeki debut, made an ill-advised and futile one-bout return, and will be kadoban in Nagoya. Tachiai hopes that his injury heals well and quickly so that he can defend his rank and resume his upward career trajectory.

Losers: Ichinojo and Aoiyama

Both followed up their outstanding performances in Osaka with losing records at Natsu, and will be dropping out of San’yaku after one tournament. On the bright side, they should land among the top eight maegashira, and Ichinojo looked much better after sitting out four days.

Loser: Kaisei

The big Brazilian, one of our favorite men in sumo, was able to record only 3 victories for the second-straight basho, this time as a result of a Day 8 withdrawal due to injury. Just like that, he will go from M1 to perilously close to the bottom of Makuuchi, and will likely need a winning record in Nagoya to avoid a visit to Juryo.

Losers: Chiyoshoma, Tokushoryu, Ishiura

All recorded double-digit losses, and will be fighting in the second division in July. Chiyoshoma and Ishiura needed a lot of banzuke luck to survive in Makuuchi last time around (and the time before that for Chiyoshoma), and Tokushoryu was very fortunate to be promoted, so this isn’t a surprise. At least the sad state of Juryo means that they’ll land near the top of the division and can fight their way back up with strong performances. Dishonorable mention goes to Terutsuyoshi, who should take Chiyoshoma’s place as a very lucky two-time survivor, Kagayaki, who was in danger of demotion for much of the tournament despite being ranked at M10, and who only collected 5 wins, and to Yoshikaze, who only managed 4.

Natsu Day 15 Highlights

Bruce H Abi (阿炎), Aoiyama, Asanoyama (朝乃山), Chiyomaru, Chiyoshoma, Chiyotairyū (千代大龍), Daieisho (大栄翔), Daishoho, Endo (遠藤), Enho, Gōeidō (豪栄道), Hokutōfuji (北勝富士), Ichinojo (逸ノ城), Ikioi (勢), Ishiura (石浦), Kagayaki (輝), Kakuryu (鶴竜), Kotoeko, Kotoshogiku (琴奨菊), Meisei, Mitakeumi(御嶽海), Myogiryu (妙義龍), Natsu Basho 2019, Nishikigi, Okinoumi (隠岐の海), Ryuden (竜電), Sadanoumi (佐田の海), Shohozan, Shōdai (正代直也), Takarafuji (宝富士), Takayasu (高安), Tamawashi (玉鷲), Terutsuyoshi, Tochinoshin (栃ノ心), Tochiozan (栃煌山), Tokushoryu, Tomokaze, Yago, Yoshikaze (嘉風), Ōnoshō (阿武咲) , , , , , ,
Enho Gives Everything In His Day 15 Match With Shohozan
Image courtesy of friend of Tachiai, NicolaAnn08 on Twitter

Described by one friend as “Anti-climatic”, day 15 in general was a study in how many rikishi were hurt and fighting poorly vs a small core who managed to stay healthy. The schedulers threw in a good number of “Darwin Matches” where both rikishi were 7-7, and one walked away with winning record, the other with a losing record and demotion. The atmosphere in the Kokugikan was off, as vending machines were taken off line, there were hour long lines to be screened to enter, and there were protective guards everywhere. But some solid sumo did take place, and the final day of the Natsu Basho went off without a hitch.

As expected, US President Trump did appear with Prime Minster Abe, and both handed trophies to Asanoyama who looked happy, overwhelmed and just a little bit uncertain. President Trump was courteous, and at times appeared very happy (handing over the Presidents Cup) and bored (during some of the matches). If the President or any of his staff find themselves taken with the notion of sumo, I strongly recommend reading Tachiai, watching Jason and Kintamayama, and listening to Grand Sumo Breakdown during the next 2 months to be primed for what should be an epic battle in Nagoya.

We are all eagerly awaiting lksumo’s crystal ball post due up later today, but I can say that this basho was a death march for far too many rikishi. A few big names were missing, and the ones who hung in there were fighting well below their normal capabilities. I think this basho greatly underscored just how tough it is to keep a group of 40 or so rikishi healthy, fighting and fit.

Highlight Matches

Chiyoshoma defeats Ikioi – Chiyoshoma delivers a slap and a pull to drop Ikioi to 4-11. Is this the end of Ikioi as we know him? Clearly he is still too hurt to fight effectively. Its tough to see long time favorites go out banged up and down.

Shohozan defeats Enho – The first of the Darwin matches, Shohozan threw in all of his unsavory behavior including multiple matta (one with a full charge and slap) before the match could get underway for real. When the match did finally start, it was a wild brawl with Enho dodging and weaving at his best, but Shohozan was clearly in charge. The two went chest to chest, and Enho struggled to get leverage over the larger Shohozan, but “Big Guns” remained upright and stable, while Enho became increasingly tired. Eventually Enho’s attacks left him too low, and Shohozan helped him to take a face full of Natsu clay. Huge effort by Enho, and typical crummy attitude from Shohozan, but he did pick up his 8th win.

Onosho defeats Chiyomaru – Second Darwin match, Onosho’s propensity to put too much pressure in front of his ankles was no worry with Chiyomaru’s mass to push against, and Chiyomaru found himself without any room to work, or any chance to move to the side.

Kagayaki defeats Ishiura – Both men end the basho 5-10, with Ishiura likely headed to Juryo. Ishiura lost the last 5 consecutive matches, and is in dire need to regroup. The entire Pixie contingent looks to have faded through week 2, as Enho also lost his last 6 consecutive matches, after a strong start.

Tomokaze defeats Sadanoumi – Another Darwin match, Tomokaze lets Sadanoumi come to him, then employs superior strength and stability to overpower, lift and eject Sadanoumi. Tomokaze has yet to endure his first make-koshi of his professional career.

Meisei defeats Daishoho – Meisei has over-performed this basho, finishing with a 10-5 record, and a solid win over Daishoho. Meisei took a mae-mitsu grip early, and never gave an inch.

Shodai defeats Kotoeko – Shodai finishes with double digit wins, after finishing Osaka with double digit losses. I think his sumo looked better, and his opponents were in worse condition this tournament. I insist if this guy could improve his tachiai, he would be a force of sumo.

Tokushoryu defeats Yoshikaze – Yoshikaze puts forth an effort to win on the final day, but the amount of force he can put into any move seems to be just a fraction of his normal. This comes after double digit wins in Osaka. His performance is either on or off the past 18 months, and I have to wonder if he’s starting to eye that kabu now.

Shimanoumi defeats Takarafuji – Two time Juryo yusho winner Shimanoumi came roaring back from a middling start to win his last 6 in a row, and end with at 10-5 record. That was a lot of Makuuchi jitters and ring rust to scrape off, but once he settled in he produced some solid sumo. He may find himself in a tougher crowd in Nagoya.

Abi defeats Tamawashi – Two false starts by Abi left him a bit slow at the tachiai, but he still landed his double arm shoulder attack, and used Tamawashi’s lateral move to send him arcing into the clay. Both men end Natsu 10-5, and Abi receives the Kanto-sho.

Chiyotairyu defeats Tochiozan – This bout was a mess, it featured a solid forward start from Chiyotairyu, followed by a lateral collapse that saw the big Kokenoe man hit the clay, but win because Tochiozan had already stopped out.

Daieisho defeats Terutsuyoshi – Both rikishi end Natsu make-koshi, with Terutsuyoshi following a cold start to the basho with a week 2 fade. There are a good number of rikishi at the bottom of the banzuke with really terrible records, and it may be another log-jam in the demotion queue that sees some incredible banzuke luck bestowed on the least terrible of the lot. Will that include Terutsuyoshi?

Endo defeats Yago – Endo catches Yago’s tachiai, lets him begin to push and then drops him to the clay. Simple, easy, effective.

Kotoshogiku defeats Okinoumi – A fairly traditional Kotoshogiku hug-n-chug win, but his hip pumping was less focused than normal, and it took quite a bit of time and effort to finish Okinoumi. Both men end the basho with losing records.

Hokutofuji defeats Nishikigi – Hokutofuji’s “Handshake Tachiai” pays off as Nishikigi puts all of his hopes into grabbing a piece of Hokutofuji’s mawashi, and comes up with air. Left without anything to hold on to, Nishikigi is quickly propelled out for an oshidashi loss.

Mitakeumi defeats Asanoyama – Many fans will declare this a bellwether match, as it shows that Asanoyama did not have the mettle to be the Natsu champion. They may have a point, but that’s not how honbasho works. Mitakeumi is able to enact his preferred sumo strategy, and try as he might, Asanoyama cannot get into the grip and foot placement we have seen him use to rack up 12 wins prior to today. Does this foreshadow Asanoyama’s upcoming opponents in Nagoya? Probably, yes.

Ryuden defeats Aoiyama – Ryuden finishes with double digits, and I have to say his sumo was dead on this tournament. Aoiyama was only a fraction of his normal strength by this stage of the tournament, and Ryuden masterfully absorbed everything Aoiyama delivered in terms of tsuppari.

Ichinojo defeats Myogiryu – When Ichinojo is “on” he turns his opponents into rag-dolls and tosses them around at his leisure. This happened today with Myogiryu, who looked like an play-thing in a giant’s toy box.

Takayasu defeats Tochinoshin – Both of these rikishi are fighting hurt, and are only at a fraction of their expected power and speed. Takayasu takes a big chance going chest to chest against Tochinoshin, but rather than set up the sky crane, Tochinoshin oddly decides to try and pull Takayasu, which was all the Ozeki needed to rush forward and take Tochinoshin to the clay. Yeah, Tochinoshin is clearly hurt, and that was crap sumo compared to his first week performance.

Kakuryu defeats Goeido – They made a good match of it, no shady moves, no cheap sumo here, the top two surviving rikishi finished the day with a solid yotsu match that saw the Yokozuna take his 11th win.

That’s it for our daily highlight coverage. Thank you, dear readers, for sharing the Natsu Basho with us!