Natsu 2025: Shin-Makushita

hochiyama Aki Basho 2022

The upcoming Natsu bashō has a few tsukedashi expected, and we will go into these high performers first. As a side note, I will discuss Student Yokozuna Buckchuluun, who joined Kasugano-stable and has a Makushita Tsukedashi qualification, for the bashō he will first appear on the dohyō. As a foreigner, he will be on his “cool down period” for this tournament.

Aside from the Makushita tsukedashi wrestlers, there are a few other prospects who took the traditional climb up the banzuke to get to division 3. I think there will likely be a few future sekitori amongst this entire crop. As such, I am adding my own opinion about how likely each of these new wrestlers is to join the salaried ranks.

Urayama (浦山)

Stable: Otowayama
Age: 22
Height (cm/feet-inches): 183 / 6’0”
Weight (kg/lbs): 160 / 352
Home prefecture: Tōyama
High School: Tōyama Commercial High
University: Kinki University (Kindai)
Career Record and notes: 0-0-0
Debut: Natsu 2025 (Makushita 60 Tsukedashi)

Possibility to reach sekitori: Very Likely

Urayama is a Tōyama native, like his idol Asanoyama. He has even set his goal to overtake his hero – but promised to show this resolve in results, rather than in words only. He began his sumo studies in second grade, and eventually trained under his own father – Coach Hideki, who also trained Asanoyama, at Tōyama Commercial High School Sumo Club. Of course, he was his father’s great protégé and has been blessed with an excellent sumo physique!

However, in his second year of Kureha Junior High School, his father suddenly passed away. This was not only a tragedy for young Urayama, who was very depressed but vowed to continue and “surpass his father, who was a strong man. I also recall Asanoyama promising to reach sekitori to honor his former coach. One thing I hope to see in this tournament is a battle between Urayama and Asanoyama for the Makushita Title – somehow I would see it as fitting and a great way to demonstrate the excellence of their mentor. In middle school, he was the runner-up in the tournament to determine that year’s middle school
Yokozuna.

Urayama followed his father and hero’s footsteps at Tōyama Commercial High School and Kinki University. He defeated future Ounokatsu in a high school tournament. He served as Kindai’s sumo club captain and performed very well (2 nd place in West Japan Student 135kg+ championship, 1st Place in West Japan 135+kg Championship, 3 rd place in the National Student Sumo Individual Championship 135kg+, Top 8 in the National University and Corporate Sumo Tournament in Kariya, and Top 8 of the National Student Sumo Championship, which earned him the Makushita tsukedashi. For his university team, he helped bring a 3 rd place final in the National Student Meet, 2 nd place at the West Japan Student Sumo Tournament, and the championship at the West Japan Student Newcomer Tournament.

While started working to raise future sumo wrestlers in his hometown, like his father before him, he was asked to become a professional wrestler by Otowayama Oyakata (fomer Kakuryū) last Spring, just before he opened his own stable. He may become Otowayama’s first “home grown” sekitori (as I exclude Kirishima, who was brought up in Michinoku-stable). Otowayama hopes to add to Urayama’s “forward moving sumo” with additional skills. Urayama echoes this sentiment, hoping to “learn technical aspects” from his new Oyakata. He still wants to train young sumo wrestlers, and apparently Otowayama hinted that he may be able to do this in the professional sumo world as well.

Hanaoka (花岡)

Stable: Sakaigawa
Age: 22
Height (cm/feet-inches): 182 / 5’11”
Weight (kg/lbs): 135 / 297
Home prefecture: Kumamoto
High School: Buntoko High
University: Nippon University (Nichidai)
Career Record and notes: 0-0-0
Debut: Natsu 2025 (Makushita 60 Tsukedashi)

Possibility to reach sekitori: Likely

Following in the footsteps of Kusano is fellow Buntoku and Nichidai graduate Hanaoka. However, he is parting ways with Kusano now, by joining Sakaigawa stable. He finished in second place at the Saga Kokuspo Tournament, earning his Makushita Tsukedashi qualification. This tournament also earned Goshima (see last report) and Gyōtoku (see below) their qualifications. Hanaoka became the first ever“four-peat” winner of the National Student Sumo Championship Under 135kg weight class. During that tournament, Hanaoka was repeatedly pushed around, but managed to hold his ground and win at the edge. He lost the East Japan Championship to Goshima, and they often faced each other regularly during their university tournaments. Hanaoka had also earned a Sandanme tsukedashi qualification with his performance in the 102nd Student Championships last year. He has defeated Goshima and Ounokatsu in his college days.

Earlier in life, he won the Wanpaku Sumo tournament back in 5th and 6th grade. Other former two-time winners were Gōeidō and Takanohana – so that should raise some expectations. Back in 2014, he received is trophy from NSK staff Takanohana Oyakata himself. Starting the 6th grade tournament, he had to perform the Yokozuna dohyo iri as a 5 th grade Yokozuna – and that motivated him, saying “I couldn’t lose after I had done the ring-entering ceremony”. Hanaoka started with sumo at the age of 5, introduced by a friend. He found great joy in winning and by throwing (his specialty) older opponents. Growing up, he trained 4 times per week and ate four bowls of rice per day. His initial heroes were Hakuhō and Kotoshōgiku. He has always had is sights set on joining pro-sumo.

Gyōtoku (行徳)

Stable: Tamanoi
Age: 22
Height (cm/feet-inches): 177 / 5’9”
Weight (kg/lbs): 140 / 308
Home prefecture: Tōyama
High School: Adachi Shinden High School
University: Takushoku University
Career Record and notes: 0-0-0
Debut: Natsu 2025 (Makushita 60 Tsukedashi)

Possibility to reach sekitori: 50/50

In comparison to Hanaoka, who always had his sights set on going pro, we have Gyōtoku. Gyōtoku has a unique claim on his Makushita Tsukedashi status. He is a graduate from Takudai, which has produced notable sumo wresters (recent tsukedashi Goshima, current Makushita Asahakuryū and Fujitoshi, and former Sekiwake Tochinonada).  However, it appears that Gyōtoku actually has no sumo university experience.  

Like Hanaoka, sumo has always been a part of his life, as he began in first grade. However, Gyōtoku seemed to have considered sumo has his hobby. In middle school, he trained with the Bunkyo Harigaya sumo club. He further attended Adachi Shinden High (a typical starting point for many Kasugano-beya wrestlers). However, the pandemic stopped the high school tournament circuit – and apparently ended Gyōtoku’s sumo career, as he ended up with little desire to continue with the sport once he joined the university.   Thus, he did not join the Takudai sumo club as a student.

His high school mentor invited him to help coach and he continued to train with his juniors, still in high school.  In his senior year at University, he started to feel the urge to do competitive sumo again and began to participate in corporate sumo events.  He lost in the best 16 to Amateur Yokozuna Ikeda, but managed to finish in 3rd at the All Japan Corporate Sumo Championship – and earned a tsukedashi qualification. He looks forward to meeting his fellow Takudai students (particularly Goshima) in the ring as a professional. 

Murayama (村山)

Stable: Naruto
Age: 22
Height (cm/feet-inches): 169 / 5’6”
Weight (kg/lbs): 137 / 302
Home prefecture: Chiba
High School: Niigata-Kaiyō
University: —
Career Record and notes: 97-75-3 (.564)
Jonokuchi Yūshō: Haru 2021
Debut: Hatsu 2021

Possibility to reach sekitori: Very unlikely

Murayama has been taking sumo since first grade in Chiba. He began attending Katsushika Shiratori Sumo School in fourth grade. In his fifth and sixth years at the national junior high school tournament in Itoigawa City, he finished in third place. He went to developing powerhouse high school Niigata Kaiyō (home school of Ōnosato, Ōshōumi, etc.).

In his second year, he participated in the national high school tournament in Towada, and got second place in the team competition. During a match he was poked in the eye. Despite the injury, he finished as a runner-up – and an exam after the fact revealed a detached retina that required surgery. He was in the top 16 in the high school team competition and also won the Niigata Prefectural tournament in his Junior year.  During his school days, he also got a first degree blackbelt in jūdō. He was recruited during his high school days by Naruto, the third student Naruto plucked from this high school (after Ōshōumi and Marushō). When he joined, he noted his small stature and pushing style was similar to Takakeishō, who he listed as a role model.

His first tournament in professional sumō was a success, winning the Jonokuchi (division 6) championship.  With his strong background, he rose right to mid-Sandanme. However, he stalled in upper Sandanme since end-2022. My feeling is that his height (169cm) may be limiting his overall development.  

Gōseizan (豪聖山)

Stable: Takekuma
Age: 19
Height (cm/feet-inches): 185 / 6’0”
Weight (kg/lbs): 143 / 315
Home country: Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
High School: Hokkaidō Sakae High
University: —
Career Record and notes: 23-3-2
Jonokuchi Yūshō: Aki 2024
Debut: Natsu 2024

Possibility to reach sekitori: Likely

Gōseizan came to Japan as a 17 year old to attend Hokkaidō Sakae and to join their sumo club. As a result, he does not have much history in Japanese sumo. He had to transfer as a sophomore due to restrictions at the height of the pandemic. During his sophomore year, he did place third in the team competition at the National High School Kanazawa Tournament, catching the eye of Takekuma Oyakata and becoming the first foreigner in that stable. Of course, it helped that the high school sumo coach was a classmate of Takekuma Oyakata at Saitama Sakae High School. 

His shikona pays homage to his current stable master (former Gōeidō) and his former high school coach Takayama (the alternate reading of yama is “zan”). When he joined, he was already training at the level of other makushita and sandanme wrestlers at the stable. His first two tournaments were successful, capturing the Jonokuchi Yūshō and going undefeated in Jonidan before withdrawing due to injury.  He also defeated Nishonoseki’s Furuta (former Nittaidai graduate) and Musashigawa’s Nakashima (former division 3) on his way to the championship. His three career losses so far have all been to former division 3 (Makushita) wrestlers, so he is approaching an area on the banzuke where he may face some real competition. 

He is a mainly yotsu-style wrestler, with yorikiri accounting for about 40 percent of his wins.  He has pledged not to return to Mongolia until he reaches sekitori. His model rikishi is Harumafuji!

Daishinkai (大新海)

Stable: Ōtake
Age: 24
Height (cm/feet-inches): 176 / 5’9”
Weight (kg/lbs): 134 / 294
Home country: Niigata
High School: Niigata-Kaiyō
University: —
Career Record and notes: 127-112-6
Debut: Haru 2019

Possibility to reach sekitori: Very unlikely

Daishinkai, whose mother is from the Philippines, began wrestling in his first year at Yamagata Junior High School at the Niigata City Sumo School on the recommendation of his Japanese father (who is a big sumo fan). In his junior year, he placed 32nd in the high school team competition. He was invited to join the Ōtake stable by the oyakata (former wrestler, Dairyū), who came to watch him practice at the school. He is the first wrestler I can recall coming out of Niigata- Kaiyō, which later became famous for its future graduates.  His shikona actually combines the first kanji from his high school (other reading of Nii from Niigata- Kaiyō is shin). So his shikona really pays honor to his high school.

He rapidly rose to Sandanme (Division 4), but struggled to break into Makushita for many years, suffering a knee injury in early 2024 which dropped him back to division 5. It seems he has established his peak, even prior to his injury.  His prior career high rank was in Hatsu 2022. He is a oshi-sumo style wrestler. He enjoys playing games and listening to music.  

Unfortunately, Daishinkai ran into Ikarigata (see below, and this is called foreshadowing of the next wrestler) on the 4th day of the March 2025 tournament. After withstanding Daishinkai’s wild thrusting attack, Ikarigata stopped him with a single plow from his right arm – thrusting him down and wowing the crowd.  Maybe these two can meet up again in Makushita. 

Ikarigata (碇潟)

Stable: Isenoumi
Age: 18
Height (cm/feet-inches): 174 / 5’8”
Weight (kg/lbs): 124 / 273
Home country: Kyōtō
High School: Saitama Sakae
University: —
Career Record and notes: 12-2
Debut: Hatsu 2025 (Sandanme Tsukedashi)

Possibility to reach sekitori: Very likely

So, a person knows he is older when he sees the children of sports people he followed have success.  I used to use sumo as a way to study kanji, and Ōikari was the first wrestler I saw with the “ikari” kanji, meaning anchor.  As a kid who grew up liking all things battleships, I thought he had a neat shikona.  Well, years later he has two sons in professional sumo who have inherited the “ikari” part of the shikona. Ikarigata is only a few steps behind his sekitori brother, Wakaikari.  The shikona “Ikarigata” is inspired by an older, Meiji-era, Kyōtō-based sumo wrestler. The original Ikarigata, active in the early 1900s, was even able to defeat the 22nd Yokozuna, Tachiyama!

Of course, being born into a sumo family, he had a chance to start his sport from an early age. He experienced success early on, too, getting to the quarter finals of the All-Japan Prefectural Junior High School Tournament in his third year. Like his brother, he went to Saitama Sakae High school.  He continued to have great success there, placing third in the 100kg+ weight class at the All Japan in his sophomore year and leading Team Japan to its victory in the Junior Sumo World Championships. Most importantly, he got third place in the National Sports Festival – which earned him a special dispensation to join as a Sandanme (division 4) tsukedashi – the first high schooler to accomplish this distinction and use it (Anhibiki beat him to the punch but declined the tsukedashi qualification and started from the bottom). 

He started his career with repeat 6-1 records in Sandanme, easily moving up into Makushita in only his third professional tournament in May.  His goal is to pass both his older brother and his father’s ranks with his spirited sumo.  Furthermore, he wants to make Sekitori in three years.

The “Ikari” brothers have known some tragedy in life – their sister passing away at the age of 14 months in 2013 and their mother died suddenly from cancer in June of the same year.

Looking Ahead to the Natsu Banzuke

lksumo Aki Basho 2022

Congratulations to Onosato on his unprecedented 3rd yusho in just eight top-division tournaments. With the March results in the books, let’s take our customary preliminary look at how they are likely to reshuffle the rankings for May.

Ozeki: The championship by Onosato heralds the start of a Yokozuna run. There’s a wide range of opinions on what result he needs for promotion, aside from the fact that it has to be a yusho or a jun-yusho. Personally, I favor the hypothesis that any yusho (even an 11-4) will do it, but that the relatively low total of 12 wins this time means that a second-place finish will suffice only with 14 wins. Kotozakura’s 8-7 finish means that we’ll have two Ozeki in good standing in May. With 20 wins at Sekiwake over the past two basho, Daieisho could be said to be on an Ozeki run, but 13 wins at Natsu is going to be a tough ask.

Sekiwake/Komusubi: S1e Daieisho (9-6) and K1e Kirishima (8-7) have successfully defended their places in the named ranks. S1w Oho (6-9) will drop out of san’yaku, as will K1w Abi (6-9), so we have to find two rikishi to fill their spots. I have Kirishima as the leading candidate for S1w, although a case can be made for M4e Takayasu (12-3). If he doesn’t leapfrog Kirishima, Takayasu should be ranked K1e, with M1e Wakatakakage (9-6) bouncing right back up to K1w. His brother, M1w Wakamotoharu (9-6), posted the same score from the same rank, but because he was ranked on the West side, he’ll probably just miss out, unless the banzuke committee decides that he’s done enough to force open an extra Komusubi slot.

Joi Maegashira: These are the 9 to 10 rank-and-filers who are expected to face a full slate of san’yaku opponents, barring withdrawals of course. Assuming he doesn’t make Komusubi, Wakamotoharu should be a lock for the top maegashira spot. He should be followed, in some order, by the two san’yaku dropouts, Oho and Abi, plus upper maegashira with losing records that won’t drop them too far—Gonoyama, Chiyoshoma, Ichiyamamoto—and those with winning records from sufficiently high ranks—Tamawashi, Hiradoumi, Takerufuji, Oshoma. Tobizaru and Ura should fall just outside these ranks, while the likes of Hakuoho, Churanoumi, Onokatsu, Aonishiki, Midorifuji and Meisei won’t rise quite that high.

Makuuchi/Juryo: The four leading demotion candidates, in order, are M12e Nishikifuji (0-2-13), M17w Shirokuma (5-10), M12e Takarafuji (3-12), and M17e Mitakeumi (6-9). Two others are in some danger: M10e Nishikigi (3-12) and M16e Asakoryu (6-9). Four Juryo rikishi have rank-record combinations that warrant promotion, and should replace the four incumbents above: J3e Roga (11-4), J2e Kayo (9-6), J1e Tamashoho (8-7), and J3w Tochitaikai (9-6). Two others are on the border: J6w Hidenoumi (10-5) and the yusho winner in his sekitori debut, J14w Kusano (14-1). I’d say three exchanges are certain, and while I wouldn’t put the odds of Mitakeumi surviving at the expense of Tochitaikai at zero, I consider this highly unlikely. My current guess is that Nishikigi and Asakoryu will just barely get to stay, but it would not shock me to see one or both replaced with Hidenoumi and/or Kusano.

Juryo/Makushita: The benefit of posting this a couple of days after the basho is that we don’t have to guess, at least on the promotion side, since these are announced immediately after the banzuke meeting so that the new sekitori can start preparing for their elevated status. Going up are Ms1e Miyagi (4-3), Ms2e Daiamami (4-3), Ms4w Mita (5-2), and Ms3w Mudoho (4-3). All but the former maegashira Daiamami will be making their Juryo debut. The corresponding demotions are not announced, but based on the records, we know that they are injury victim J12w Kiryuko (2-5-8), J14e Otsuji (5-10), absent J2w Kitanowaka, and top-division stalwart J8e Hokutofuji (3-12), unless he opts to retire.

The rankings will come out on April 28. Time permitting, I’ll have a full Crystal Ball post closer to then. In the meantime, let me know what you think in the comments.

Haru 2025: Senshuraku

Andy Haru 2025, Haru Basho ,

Senshuraku in Osaka. In case you missed them, Leonid and I covered the yusho race and banzuke implications with brief updates. If you want to check those out before reading about and watching the action, I’ll wait.

Hakuho presented us with the Kyokai’s decision making for special prizes. Takayasu received an unconditional technique prize. Aonishiki received an unconditional Fighting Spirit prize. Churanoumi and Tokihayate will win fighting spirit prizes if they win their regulation bouts today. If any of the maegashira win the yusho, they will earn the Outstanding Performance prize. If Onosato wins, no one gets it.

Now that you’re ready, your NHK videos of the action are here: Juryo, Makuuchi Part I & Part II.

Makuuchi Action

Onokatsu (10-5) defeated Shirokuma (5-10). Onokatsu overpowered Shirokuma and drove him over the tawara. Yorikiri.

Midorifuji (9-6) defeated Mitakeumi (6-9). Mitakeumi charged forward and Midorifuji wrapped up his left shoulder and pulled while rotating to his right, rolling Mitakeumi to the ground with a lightning quick katasukashi.

Kotoshoho (8-7) defeated Endo (7-8). Endo pulled rather unwisely and Kotoshoho bowled Endo violently through Hakuoho and into the Osaka sumo fan club. Yorikiri.

Hakuoho (9-6) defeated Asakoryu (6-9). Henka! Asakoryu jumped to his left but Hakuoho was wise to it and drove him from the dohyo. Yorikiri.

Ryuden (6-9) defeated Oshoma (9-6). Ryuden drove into Oshoma and Oshoma quit at the edge and stepped out. Yorikiri.

Sadanoumi (8-7) defeated Atamifuji (6-9). Migi-yotsu. Sadanoumi rather dominated Atamifuji and drove him over the bales. Yorikiri.

Tamawashi (10-5) defeated Shishi (9-6). The 40-year-old veteran bulldozed the young-gun and quickly shoved him from his dohyo. Oshidashi.

Shodai (6-9) defeated Nishikigi (3-12). Shodai wrapped up Nishikigi, pivoted, and forced him back to the bales. Nishikigi gave up about halfway there. Yorikiri.

Kinbozan (6-9) defeated Shonannoumi (4-11). Guess what? After Kinbozan’s tachiai nodowa, Shonannoumi pulled. I’m sure you are all shocked. Kinbozan knew the score, too, and dispatched Shonannoumi easily. Yorikiri.

Ichiyamamoto defeated Takarafuji. Ichiyamamoto drove forward with a brutal nodowa against Takarafuji. At the edge, Takarafuji managed to bat Ichiyamamoto’s arm away from his neck and reverse the attack. Takarafuji took the initiative and attacked but Ichiyamamoto pulled and danced along the tawara until Takarafuji fell down. Takarafuji was a bit slow getting up but I think he may have been hoping for a mono-ii that never came. “How could someone backpedal that far and not step out?” Hatakikomi.

Halftime

Ura (7-8) defeated Tobizaru (6-9). Ura wrapped his left arm around the back of Tobizaru’s shimekomi and forced him from the dohyo while Tobizaru tried a last-gasp kubinage. Tobizaru tumbled off the dohyo and Ura flopped onto the dohyo. Gunbai Ura. Tobizaru slow to get up…another mono-ii ploy? He seemed fine walking down the hanamichi but it was a rough fall. Oshidashi.

Meisei (9-6) defeated Chiyoshoma (6-9). Solid tachiai. Meisei shifted right and slapped Chiyoshoma down. Hikiotoshi.

Gonoyama (7-8) defeated Takanosho (3-12). Gonoyama forced Takanosho from the dohyo behind his right hand nodowa. Oshidashi.

Wakamotoharu (9-6) defeated Takerufuji (9-6). Wakamotoharu resisted Takerufuji’s throw attempt and drove forward with his right hand uwate grip. Yorikiri.

Wakatakakage (9-6) defeated Hiradoumi (9-6). Hiradoumi pulled and Wakatakakage stumbled forward…but did not go out. Hiradoumi was late to finish WTK off, so Wakatakakage made him pay. Wakatakakage charged forward and blasted Hiradoumi out. Oshitaoshi.

Sanyaku

Takayasu (12-3) defeated Abi (6-9). We all knew Abi’s henka was coming. Thankfully, Takayasu did, too. He make Abi pay, shoving Abi hard with his right paw in Abi’s right shoulder. That gave Takayasu access to Abi’s belt. Takayasu seized Abi’s belt with his right hand and immediately used the grip to rotate and yank Abi down. With that, Takayasu immediately eliminated Tokihayate, Aonishiki and Churanoumi from contention. Uwatedashinage.

Kirishima (8-7) defeated Tokihayate (10-5). Tokihayate pulled. Kirishima pursued, reached low and inside, latching on quickly. Kirishima kept Tokihayate’s momentum moving backwards and walked him out. Yorikiri.

Aonishiki (11-4) defeated Oho (6-9). Aonishiki is the real deal. He earned his way into the Kore-Yori-Sanyaku in this debut tournament. Mr. Fundamentals then earned the arrows by keeping his head buried under Oho’s chin and driving forward. As Oho retreated and neared the bales, Aonishiki reached deep behind him with his left hand and his right hand up front. He rotated left, bringing Oho backward over his extended knee. Absolutely beautiful. Of the videos, that is a key one to watch. Kirikaeshi.

Churanoumi (11-4) defeated Daieisho (9-6). After his initial powerful tsuppari, Daieisho pulled. Churanoumi stayed up and in. Realizing his back was at the edge, Daieisho stepped out. With the win, Churanoumi claimed a Fighting Spirit Prize. Oshidashi.

Onosato (12-3) defeated Kotozakura (8-7). Onosato pressed forward and shoved Kotozakura out quickly, claimed a massive pile of kensho, and forced a playoff with Takayasu. Yorikiri.

Playoff

A playoff at 12-3 between Ozeki Onosato and former Ozeki and beloved Papa Bear, Takayasu. This is an infinitely better scenario than the alternative 5-man playoff. Takayasu can win his first yusho and try to make a final run at re-promotion to Ozeki. Onosato can kick off his own tsuna-tori.

Onosato defeated Takayasu. Onosato hit Takayasu with a tachiai that staggered the former Ozeki. Takayasu latched on with his left and pulled, nearly forcing Onosato over the bales but Onosato shifted right and kept his weight back. If he was going to fall forward, Takayasu would have to pull him and Takayasu would have to fall first. Takayasu shuffled right but Onosato was now well positioned behind Takayasu and pushed him out. Okuridashi.

Wrap-up

Thank you for joining me for this tournament. It was one heck of a roller-coaster ride. I’m proud for Onosato but am writing through tears for Takayasu. Yet again, he lost a yusho in a playoff. This time, Onosato seemed vulnerable and Takayasu seemed to be fighting well. “厳しいです。” Absolutely right. Frankly, though, the better sumo won today. That tachiai from Onosato was the best one I saw from him this tournament and I hope he hits with that power on a consistent basis. Hoshoryu will hopefully be back and healed in May, ready to make Onosato earn his rope. If Onosato wants it, he will need to do his best and go through Hoshoryu.

There will be news in a few days about Juryo promotions. Jungyo will start up next weekend and will run through the banzuke release at the end of April. The banzuke will be eagerly anticipated in this household. We’re eager to see where these hot-shot yung’uns land as they spring up the ranking sheet.

Banzuke Scenarios, Day 14

lksumo Aki Basho 2022

Following Andy’s excellent breakdown of the yusho race, let’s take a look at the banzuke implications of senshuraku action.

Ozeki: Kotozakura has cleared kadoban and Onosato has 11 wins, which means we’ll have two Ozeki in good standing in May. Daieisho now has 20 wins at Sekiwake over the past two basho; one more, and we’ll have to start taking an Ozeki run seriously, although 12 wins at Natsu is going to be a tough ask. And of course, an Onosato yusho would trigger a tsuna run, although given the low winning score, it would have to be followed up by a yusho at Natsu: no “equivalent” is likely to do it.

Sekiwake/Komusubi: S1e Daieisho (9-5) has successfully defended his rank. S1w Oho (6-8) will lose his, but can still limit his drop to Komusubi by beating [checks notes] M15e Aonishiki (10-4) on the last day. The young Ukrainian’s 21st birthday celebration tomorrow will be sweetened by a special prize. K1w Abi (6-8) will be a maegashira at Natsu; he gets to play spoiler tomorrow against yusho race co-leader M4e Takayasu (11-3). K1e Kirishima (7-7) will have to beat [checks notes again] M18e Tokihayate (10-4) to stay Komusubi. By reaching 8 wins at the top of the maegashira ranks, M1e Wakatakakage should definitely return to San’yaku, replacing Abi. The other men in contention for promotion to the named ranks are the aforementioned Takayasu and M1w Wakamotoharu (8-6). If Oho and Kirishima both lose, then it’s straightforward—the two maegashira fill their slots. Otherwise, we’ll have to consider whether their records are strong enough to force open extra slots.

Makuuchi/Juryo: The demotion of M12e Nishikifuji (0-2-12) is certain, and I don’t see any way M17w Shirokuma (5-9) can survive. M12e Takarafuji (3-11) would need a win and a lot of help from other results. Mitakeumi, Asakoryu, Ryuden, and Nishikigi ought to be safe if they win; none are paired up. We have three definite promotions: J1e Tamashoho (8-6) and J3e Roga (10-4) are set for an immediate return to Makuuchi, and J2e Kayo (9-5) will make his top-division debut after coming close in the past two basho. J3w Tochitaikai (8-6) and J5w Fujiseiun (9-5) can still reach promotable records by winning tomorrow. J6w Hidenoumi (9-5) is not completely out of the picture, and neither is J14w Kusano (13-1) if he can beat Fujiseiun.

Juryo/Makushita: Ms1e Miyagi (4-3) won his crossover bout with J8e Hokutofuji (3-11) and is guaranteed his sekitori debut. Ms1w Ishizaki (3-4) lost to Kazekeno, so he’s out of the running. The remaining promotion order is as follows: Ms2e Daiamami (3-3) if he wins, Ms4w Mita (4-2) if he wins, Ms3w Mudoho (4-3), Ms4w Mita (4-2) if he loses. The only certain demotion is injury victim J12w Kiryuko, who’ll be replaced by Miyagi. J14e Otsuji (5-9) faces Mita tomorrow in what is likely an exchange bout, and Daiamami will try to seal Hokutofuji’s demotion. Absent J2w Kitanowaka may be demoted depending on other results. Everyone else is safe. So we’ll have anywhere from one to four exchanges. The scenarios are complicated, and will be easier to go through after tomorrow’s results are known.