OK. The torikumi is out so I wanted to update everyone on the upcoming bouts and scenarios. We know the field is narrowed to five men, Onosato (O) and Takayasu (M4) with three losses and Churanoumi (M14), Aonishiki (M15), and M16 Tokihayate, the so-called makujiri, with four.
＜大相撲三月場所＞
— 日本相撲協会公式 (@sumokyokai) March 22, 2025
千秋楽の取組が決まりました！
優勝の可能性は、
１１勝３敗で並ぶ大の里、髙安
１０勝４敗の美ノ海、安青錦、時疾風の５人に絞られました。#sumo #相撲 #三月場所 #大阪場所 pic.twitter.com/wsw2tN5UbP
As expected, the two Ozeki will fight in the musubi-no-ichiban. Prior to that, Daieisho will fight Churanoumi, Aonishiki will fight Oho, Kirishima will fight Tokihayate, and Takayasu will fight Abi.
If both Onosato and Takayasu win, we will have one play-off bout between the two of them and a 12-win yusho.
If Onosato OR Takayusu wins, and the other loses, we will have no playoff. The winner will win the tournament outright, and a 12-win yusho.
If BOTH Onosato AND Takayasu lose, this is where the scenarios get crazy. Basically both will be in a playoff with any of the other three who win their bouts. If Churanoumi, Aonishiki, and Tokihayate win, we could be looking at a five-man playoff. If they all lose, it’s a two man playoff between Onosato and Takayasu and an 11-win yusho.
11-win yusho are not common. The last was Takakeisho beating Atamifuji in a playoff with a henka. Here’s a great interview in the Asahi Shimbun with Konishiki where he discusses it. Before that, we have to go back to 2017 and Harumafuji’s playoff win over Goeido. Even before that, we have to go way back to my High School days, November 1996. Tupac had been killed a few months before and Biggie would be shot and killed a few months later, in March. Yes, this is how I date things. In an interesting coincidence, Konishiki was still active during that tournament. The title, though, was claimed by Musashimaru after a crazy 5-man playoff with Akebono, Kaio, Wakanohana and Takanonami.
Instead of an epic playoff between a Yokozuna, three Ozeki and a future Ozeki (Kaio), we have the potential playoff of O-M4-M14-M15-M16. Tokihayate can seriously walk away with the cup. Chaos! Woo!
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That’s a fantastic interview with Konishiki. Thanks so much for posting it. And, fwiw, I agree with just about everything he says. I really like him, in and out of the ring.
I saw him at Sumo+Sushi and really liked him too. Apparently he just had surgery – his wife donated a kidney to him – and is resting up, and after that plans another Sumo+Sushi tour to the US. I got to see the Sumo+Sushi for free as a volunteer a few years ago, a good option if the ticket prices feel steep.
My order of preference for the yusho is (1) Aonishiki, the kid is amazing and it would be historic (2), Onosato, starting a tsuna run, (3) Takayasu. I don’t want the other two anywhere near the cup; the last time someone of their caliber won, we got shunted onto the current dark timeline.
Mine is (1) Onosato, because I predicted his becoming a Yokozuna until spring… (2) Aonishiki, what a well deserved birthday present that would be; (3) Takayasu, to end a running gag which long ago turned sour. Churanoumi’s would be like the Abi yusho, therefore NO, please not. Tokihayate would be like the Takarafuji yusho, therefore no, but as he weighs only 118 kilos there would still be one positive angle.
I think you mean Tokushoryu’s yusho. Except Tokihayate could take a bath in the PM’s trophy.
No, I meant the Takatoriki yusho, sorry.
Considering that Kusano wins Juryo, it would be so, so strange if Tokihayate wins Makuuchi. The world turned upside down.
Thanks so much for this breakdown – I am pretty new to Sumo but have been lapping up the supremely good Tachiai blog content over the past few weeks. I am usually Team Chaos but for circular composition purposes I would like to see Takayasu take one near the end of his career!