Andy is otherwise occupied, and will begin the top-division coverage in a day or two. In the meantime, let’s check in briefly on third-division action. Half of the lower-division rikishi fought today; the rest will start their basho tomorrow. Please see this post for a preview.

Promotion Zone

Former sekitori, kakenage machine, salt thrower, and budding bow twirler Ms1w Akua defeated March champion Ms2e Oshoryu. Asakoryu’s little bro Ms4e Ishizaki lost to former maegashira Ms4w Kotokuzan.

Extended Promotion Zone

Today’s winners, who stay in the race for the yusho and a near-automatic promotion, are headlined by former Ozeki Ms14w Asanoyama. Also picking up wins were Ms7e Satorufuji, Ms8w Asahakuryu, Ms11e Chiyomaru, and Ms13w Narutaki.

Other Yusho Contenders

The first of three Makushita 60 tsukedashi debutants, Gyotoku, was in action today and did not disappoint. One of the two successful Ms60TD March debutants from Fujishima beya, Ms39w Fukuzaki, also got a Day 1 win, along with promising division newcomer Ms46e Goseizan, former maegashira Shimazuumi, lightweight throw artist Oyamada, and prospects Anosho, Matsui, and Okaryu. Let’s see who joins them tomorrow, and which of these rikishi feature in our 32-wrestler 2-0 yusho bracket after the first two rounds of bouts are completed.

To set up my coverage of the Makushita promotion and yusho races, I thought it would be helpful to take a brief and highly selective look at some of the players.

Promotion Zone

This part of the banzuke comprises the Ms1-Ms5 ranks, where a winning record can get a wrestler to Juryo depending on other results and space availability. Among the contenders here are the former sekitori, kakenage machine, salt thrower, and budding bow twirler Ms1w Akua, March champion Ms2e Oshoryu, Ms3e Otsuji, whose Juryo debut in March did not go well, Asakoryu’s little bro Ms4e Ishizaki, who’s come within a single win of promotion the past two basho, and Mongolian prospect Ms5e Kyokukaiyu.

Extended Promotion Zone

These are the Ms6-Ms15 ranks, where a 7-0 record means a near-automatic promotion, but anything less won’t do. The headline names here are fan favorite Ms10w Enho and former Ozeki Ms14w Asanoyama. If both stay undefeated through their first three bouts, they’re on course to meet on Day 7 or 8 (for the record, they’ve met 3 times, with Enho taking the first and Asanoyama the next two).

Other Yusho Contenders

We will have three Makushita 60 tsukedashi debutants, the most since 1999. They are Uruyama, Hanaoka, and Gyotoku, but don’t look for them on sumodb—they won’t show up on the banzuke until they mount the dohyo. We also have our two successful Ms60TD March debutants from Fujishima beya, Ms28e Goshima and Ms39w Fukuzaki. Another former sekitori, Ms16e Kawazoe, just missed out on a spot in the extended promotion zone. Asanoyama might have to go through him before he can meet Enho. And then there are promising division newcomers Ms45e Ikarigata (Wakaikari’s little bro) and Ms46e Goseizan.

Let’s see which of these rikishi feature in our 32-wrestler 2-0 yusho bracket after the first two rounds of bouts are completed. Who are you looking forward to following? Did I miss any of your favorites? Let me know in the comments.

The Natsu banzuke is out. So, how did my banzuke prediction do? Of the 42 Makuuchi rikishi, 28 were placed at the exact rank, and 3 more were at the correct rank but on the wrong side. That leaves 11 “misses”, 6 of which were off by half a rank, 4 by one full rank, and one (Nishikigi) by a rank and a half. I was most unsure about what exactly was going to happen at the ranks from M5 to M10, and most of the misses happened here, but there were some other head-scratching decisions by the banzuke committee.

What my guess got right:

• All the sanyaku ranks, including S1w Kirishima ahead of K1e Takayasu and no extra Komusubi slot for M1e Wakamotoharu.
• The identity of promotions from and demotions to Juryo. Roga, Kayo, Tamashoho, and Tochitaikai made the grade, while Kusano and Hidenoumi did not. Nishikifuji, Shirokuma, Takarafuji, and Mitakeumi dropped out of the top division (Mitakeumi for the first time since his 2015 debut, while Nishikigi and Asakoryu hung on by the skin of their teeth.

What my guess got wrong:

• Switched M2w Gonoyama and M3e Tamawashi. Apparently Gonoyama got the benefit of being in the joi.
• Got the order of M4w Ichiyamamoto, M5e Ura, M5w Chiyoshoma, and M6e Oshoma completely wrong. The placement of Ura, who posted a 7-8 record at M5e, ahead of Chiyoshoma, who went 6-9 at M2w, might be the most baffling banzuke decision I’ve ever seen. By the usual banzuke math, Chiyoshoma deserved to be half a rank ahead (5w vs 6e). He was also higher-ranked and had a much tougher schedule. Plus the banzuke committee usually tries to ensure at least a minimal demotion for 7-8 records unless there is no plausible alternative. I really don’t know what to make of this one.
• M8w Kinbozan ended up ahead of M9e Aonishiki and M9w Midorifuji. Apparently, like with Gonoyama above, his higher rank overcame a half-rank difference in computed rank.
• My guess had Nishikigi at the very last rank, M18e, because the math placed him in Juryo. The banzuke committee ranked him at M16w. I can see the rationale for placing him ahead of M17e Tamashoho and M18e Tochitaikai, who were coming up from Juryo, but then why didn’t M17w Asakoryu, who computed to the exact same rank as Nishikigi, get the same treatment?

The basho starts in less than two weeks, on Sunday May 11! Stay tuned for Tachiai coverage leading up to and during the tournament. There are many storylines to follow, headlined by whether Yokozuna Hoshoryu can put the March disappointment behind him and if the March champion, Ozeki Onosato, can join him at sumo’s highest rank.

I don’t have time for a full prediction post, but thought I’d post my official banzuke guess. I am most unsure about what exactly is going to happen at the ranks from M5 to M10. We’ll find out in a week, but in the meantime, please chime in with your thoughts/guesses in the comments.