Juryo Banzuke Forecast

lksumo Hatsu Basho 2020

Now that we know which rikishi will be moving up to the Juryo division in March, we can speculate on what the second-division banzuke will look like. My projection is based on the assumptions that there will be only two promotions from Juryo to Makuuchi (Nishikigi and Daiamami), only one demotion to Juryo (Kotoeko), and four demotions to Makushita: Sokokurai, Sakigake, Toyonoshima, and Irodori.

Green: Juryo kachi-koshi. Red: Juryo make-koshi. Blue: Makushita. Black: Makuuchi. Bold: career-high rank.

I feel pretty good about the top half of this projection (down to Mitoryu), but the bottom half was tricky to put together, and may be way off. The challenge is that there are simply not enough rikishi with sufficiently good records to fill the remaining ranks, even with 5 promotions from Makushita, subject to the provision that those with losing records don’t move up. I had to leave the 7-8 rikishi (Kyokutaisei, Takagenji, and Asagyokusei) at their current rank, but this still meant huge over-promotions of the lowest-ranked men with winning records (Churanoumi and Hoshoryu), as well as very high positions for the top two promoted Makushita wrestlers, Wakamotoharu and Midorifuji. (Kizakiumi and Yago get very lenient demotions).

I’m curious to see how some of the highly touted up-and-comers—Kotonowaka, Kotoshoho, Hoshoryu, Midorifuji— will fare at their new career-high ranks in Osaka. There are lots of other storylines to look forward to in the second division. Can Wakatakakage and Terunofuji continue their comebacks all the way to Makuuchi? How will Daishoho respond after his late-basho collapse that cost him what looked like a near-certain promotion? Can Kotoeko bounce back from a disastrous January performance? Will Ichinojo look any better in his second tournament back after sitting out much of Aki and all of Kyushu?

Let me know in the comments what you think of the projected rankings and which Juryo rikishi you’ll be watching in March.

UPDATE: Banzuke guru Asashosakari has a similar and probably more accurate guess over at Sumo forum. The main differences are dropping Chiyoshoma a rank and Yago a rank and a half, and moving Tomokaze up a rank.

ex-Takamisakari Becomes New Azumazeki-oyakata

Andy Hatsu Basho 2020

Azumazeki beya has been in a state of limbo since the sudden passing of its leader, the former Ushiomaru, in December of last year. Takamisakari stepped into the role on an interim basis which has now become official. At the time he was a coach in the stable under the name Furiwake. Now he is Azumazeki-oyakata.

Fuji TV 44th Annual Sumo Tournament 2/9/2020

Andy Sumo Topics, Sumo Tourism

During the week after a tournament, sumo withdrawal symptoms usually begin to set in. Goeido’s retirement has dampened that a bit with his dramatic impacts on the March banzuke. Takekaze’s intai and the Hakuho Cup will give us a bit of a fix this weekend.

Well, mark another sumo event on your calendars! The Kokugikan will host Fiji TV’s 44th Annual Sumo Tournament on February 9. This tournament is a one day, single-elimination tournament, featuring our top Makuuchi and Juryo wrestlers. If you’re planning to be in Tokyo that Sunday, tickets are available at this site. Tickets in the upper deck start at about $10 and run upwards of $400+ for a box of four cushions down in front. Zabuton Naganaide Kudasai! Enjoy chanko and Shokkiri, as well!

Takayasu won last year’s event and Tochinoshin won the year before though I will be surprised if either participates. It will be interesting to see how well our Ozeki prospects perform as a warm up for Osaka. In the Juryo event, Azumaryu beat out Tokushoryu and Daieisho.

Tokushoryu will obviously be eligible for the Makuuchi tournament this time around. Participation in this event, and no Jungyo tour may help keep him focused, but some yusho winners have done poorly in the subsequent tournaments, like Tamawashi’s 5-10 last March. Tamawashi defeated Kaisei but lost to Ryuden in the third round. Might Tokushoryu pull off another yusho? (No, this will not make him a Yokozuna.)

New Juryo for Haru

lksumo Hatsu Basho 2020
The latest “Ones to Watch” graduate, Midorifuji

The banzuke committee meets on Wednesday after each tournament to hash out the rankings for the following basho. However, most of the results are not announced until several weeks later (February 24, in the case of the upcoming March tournament). There are two exceptions, both involving major changes in status that require extra time to prepare for. One is promotion to the two highest ranks: Yokozuna and Ozeki. The other is promotion to the salaried ranks, or sekitori, which in practice means a move from the third division, Makushita, to the second division, Juryo.

We have no new Yokozuna or Ozeki this time, however much we need some, but we do have several rikishi moving up to Juryo. As expected, these are Ms1w Wakamotoharu (6-1), Ms2 Midorifuji (5-2), Ms3w Chiyonoumi (5-2), Ms4e Akiseyama (4-3), and Ms4w Hakuyozan (6-1). This represents a return to sekitori status for all but Midorifuji, who will be making his Juryo debut. Among those missing out on promotion is Ms5e Naya, who lost a de facto playoff for the last slot to Akiseyama.

The corresponding demotions from Juryo to Makushita are not announced, but are mostly easy to guess. I expect that the following rikishi will be dropping down to the third division: Sokokurai, Sakigake, Toyonoshima, and Irodori. Goeido’s retirement and a lack of additional promotion candidates in Makushita means that the two bubble rikishi, J12w Chiyootori (6-9) and injured J1e Tomokaze (0-0-15), should be ranked in Juryo on the Haru banzuke.