Hiya. I was just playing around with some historical data and I created this little visual representation of Hanakaze’s sumo career. I’ve always been amazed at his longevity. Born in 1970, he joined the sumo world in 1986. These were the heady days of audio mix-tapes, featuring the Bangle’s “Walk Like An Egyptian” and such VHS classics as Jane Fonda’s “Low Impact Aerobic Workout.”
In a sumo context, he saw the end of the Chiyonofuji reign and rise of Takanohana and Akebono. He’s outlasted Asashoryu, Harumafuji, and Goeido. Feel free to play with the list of wrestlers, add your own favorites…maybe Abi or Terunofuji. Since the careers of the Yokozuna top out at the same place, it can be hard to make them out, so click on the names in the legend to highlight them one at a time.
Hands up if you’d like some wins – photo by @nicolaah
Look, let’s not bury the lede: I think Hatsu was one of the poorest honbasho in recent memory. And the recent worrying events around Coronavirus and the “will it/won’t it happen” predicament of future tournaments (imminent or otherwise) are somewhat detracting from the sport’s actual issues.
Most storylines entering the Hatsu basho were reduced either to non-events (Hakuho defending the Emperor’s Cup entering the final year of his career), or damp squibs (Takayasu’s ozekiwake challenge, Goeido in kadoban, Tochinoshin and Mitakeumi’s rebound attempts). Furthermore, the top division is worse for the injury-inspired losses of recent (Wakatakakage, Tomokaze) and less recent (Ichinojo) talents.
The best sumo of the last tournament may have been displayed early doors by Endo, a thoroughly enthralling victory over Hakuho that led to the dai-Yokozuna’s early exit from the tournament. While I joked with the other Tachiais on Sumo Twitter™ that an Endo yusho would be the worst thing for those of us who like to buy tickets to sumo (owing to the revelation in our recent interview with BuySumoTickets that it was Endo’s top division promotion that inspired the dearth of recent years’ ticket availability to begin with), the sumo world would have been better for a sustained title challenge from the Oitekaze pinup. Instead, the wily technician’s trademark inconsistency reared its head and a string of losses knocked him from the race.
Are there silver linings? Yes. But until Tokushoryu burst into tears on the dohyo on Senshuraku, it was a struggle to conjure them up. Takakeisho’s consistency at the thick end of the yusho arasoi bodes well for at least one san’yaku man’s longterm standing in the game. Those who thought Enho would struggle against top division opposition have been proven wrong – not only is he adding excitement but racking up scalps against san’yaku rikishi and consistently challenging for a kachi-koshi. And down in Juryo? I’ll hold my hand up and admit I never saw Terunofuji coming back, at least not like this. You can argue with the sumo, but it’s hard to find fault in the results.
As for Shodai, his delight at winning matches flies in the face of the stoicism that the game demands. He’s worked hard over the years at making himself difficult to love, so it is good to see him loosening up. Can it continue? I hope so.
The problem we now face is that, in an era of transition, the transition can’t actually take place if the new stars aren’t able or willing to take the place of those they are charged with deposing. The ozeki corps as we knew it have now been almost completely destroyed. At least one if not both Yokozuna are ready to mount up for their final sunset.
Andy recently covered some potential Ozeki runs, but at the moment, while I respect and am quite honestly jealous of his boundless optimism, it’s looking like a grim year. I’d love to be proved wrong, but while Asanoyama is technically on an Ozeki run now, I think it will require a another tremendous improvement from him in Osaka off the back of his OK performance in the Hatsu basho, and Natsu may be the earliest that he can realistically punch his ticket to sumo’s penultimate rank. As for the other candidates, I think we’re looking at 2021 as the moment when wheat will be separated from chaff.
In the meantime, the maturity of Takakeisho will be tested – because the spotlight will be firmly on him. Whatever we get from the two Yokozuna is great, but we know now not to expect anything. Takakeisho has to deliver. His fitness has proven to be a bit of a question mark since his Ozeki promotion, and he has at times had to grind out results. It’s been four years now since we had a truly great (or even good) Ozeki worthy of the rank, so the Chiganoura beya man’s cementing of his position with a steady succession of 10 or even 12+ win tournaments would be a much needed victory for the sport as a whole.
With sumo being a zero sum game, there has to be a light at the end of this transitionary tunnel. That light should signify a new emerging star. At times, it’s felt that that light is in fact a train coming to blast a Tomokaze or Murata into a devastating period of kyujo and that at the end of the tunnel there’s only another tunnel. Promising prospects like Naya and Hoshoryu haven’t been able to get it together yet, Yago lost it, and Mitoryu may not have had it. Somewhere in one of these waves there has to be hope: the smart money is on Kiribayama and Kotonowaka to make serious inroads in 2020.
People have different reasons to follow sports. I’m interested in the stories and the narrative. I’ll be in Osaka whether or not there’s a basho, and where Hatsu fell short, I’m hoping – if not expecting – to see a return to the story arc that makes sumo so compelling.
Kotonowaka will make a somewhat surprising top-division debut
The official rankings for the Osaka tournament have been released. How did the crystal ball do?
Well, with Goeido’s retirement, the san’yaku ranks dwindled to seven as predicted, which hasn’t happened since Haru 1934 and is a first in the six-basho era. My forecast got the rankings exactly right for the first ten men, from Hakuho at East Yokozuna to Okinoumi at M2e. This included placing Shodai at West Sekiwake, ahead of Hokutofuji and Endo, who got the two Komusubi slots in that order. The big surprise of the banzuke, and my biggest miss (3 full ranks), came next, with M2w occupied by the yusho winner Tokushoryu. This is a 15-rank jump from M17w, bigger than would be predicted “by the numbers,” and especially large for someone ranked so low. I guess the banzuke committee essentially split the difference between Tokushoryu’s expected placement at M4-M5 (I had him at M5w) and the argument that he should have received an extra san’yaku rank.
This placement also threw off my predictions from M3e to M5w, with Yutakayama, Mitakeumi, Enho and Abi all off by half-a-rank, and Ryuden and Onosho off by one-and-a-half. The latter two are candidates for bad luck of the banzuke award, with Ryuden only getting a 3-rank promotion with 10 wins, and Onosho a 2-rank promotion with 9.
The crystal ball had a good run after that, getting the rankings exactly right from M6e (Myogiryu) all the way down to M13e (Kotoshogiku). Below that, though, the only exactly correct prediction was Azumaryu at M16e, though all the misses were small. I thought that M16w Kaisei (8-7) was a shoo-in for the M13w rank, but he got bumped down a slot in favor of M8e Aoiyama (4-11). Nishikigi makes his return from Juryo at M14w, a rank higher than I expected. Daiamami, on the other hand, is at M17w, a rank lower than predicted and below such marginal Makuuchi incumbents as Shimanoumi and Meisei. Finally, the banzuke committee has once again punished a rikishi who sat out the entire basho, dropping Kotoyuki (who was ranked two ranks above Meisei and had only one fewer victory) to J1e. The beneficiary is top-division debutant Kotonowaka, who makes the jump with an 8-7 record at J2e, a marginal combination for promotion. His fellow J2 on the West side, Hidenoumi, who also went 7-8, could easily have taken Meisei’s place, but instead has to settle for J1w, below Kotoyuki.
In all, the crystal ball scored 26 bullseyes (correct rank and side) and 4 hits (correct rank, wrong side). Of the 12 misses, the only substantial one was Tokushoryu, who was always going to be a wildcard. For comparison, Timothee’s prediction, if I counted correctly, scored 14 bullseyes and 4 hits, with most of the discrepancies (other than the Shodai-Hokutofuji switch) coming below M8e. Timothee did correctly call Kotonowaka’s promotion, although he had Hidenoumi joining him in place of Meisei.
I also made a stab at predicting the Juryo banzuke, and this turned out pretty well, with no misses by more than a rank. A few notable items:
Kotoyuki and Hidenoumi occupy the J1 line.
Terunofuji jumps up 10.5 ranks to J3e.
Kotoeko lands at J5e.
New career highs for Kotoshoho (J6e), Akua (J6w), Churanoumi (J7w), and Hoshoryu (J9w).
Ichinojo is at J8w.
Yago inexplicably only drops 2.5 ranks to J10e after posting a dismal 4-11 record.
You can see the whole thing here. No giant surprises, but some minor ones: Tokushoryu was promoted all the way up to M2w, and Kotonowaka will make his Makuuchi debut at M18w, with Kotoyuki demoted to juryo. I’ll post a full analysis in a couple of hours.
