Basho Behind Closed Doors – The Gory Details

Herouth Haru Basho 2020 (Osaka)

Holding a basho behind closed doors is not something the NSK does very often. In fact, other than Natsu 1945, there has been no similar situation. And even then, it was not exactly closed doors – military personnel and associates of the association and rikishi were allowed in.

Here are some of the details from the press conference held by the NSK board. Keep in mind that they may reconsider any and all of these decisions during the coming week, and that more details will be ironed out as they come up.

Coming in

  • Only NSK employees (rikishi, gyoji, yobidashi etc.), and members of the press and media will be allowed in.
  • The rikishi are not allowed to use public transport to get to the arena. Shuttle buses which are not used for public transport will be provided by the NSK.
  • Rikishi will need to have their temperature measured daily three times, and if the mean temperature is above 37.5ºC, they will automatically go kyujo.
  • Members of the press and media will also be requested to have their temperature taken at the entrance.

Media interaction

  • Normally, members of the press are allowed to enter the shitaku-beya while the rikishi have their hair re-done after bouts, to ask questions. This will not be allowed this basho. Instead, there will be a designated interview area with no direct contact between rikishi and reporters.
  • Photographers will have to take photos at a distance. There is going to be a “sterile zone” of sorts around the dohyo.
  • Broadcast teams will be seated in the second floor seats, or in enclosed rooms with monitors.

The daily routine

  • Chikara Mizu – “Power Water” – will be performed without water and without the rikishi touching the ladles with their lips. They will just be going through the motions.
  • PA announcements of monoii results will still be made, for the benefit of TV.
  • Kensho envelopes and their associated sponsorship flags have not been cancelled. They are aware that sponsors may want to cancel their pledges, and will have discussions with them if this happens.

Senshuraku

  • The san-yaku greeting on Day 1 and Day 15 usually includes a bow in all directions. This time there will only be a bow toward the main camera direction.
  • The Emperor’s Cup, Yusho Flag, Prime Minister’s Cup and yusho certificates will be awarded. However, all the other prizes are to be cancelled pending deliberation.
  • There will be no orchestra to play the national anthem, and it will be played from recording.
  • The usual yusho photographs in the shitaku beya, featuring support group members and associates, will be prohibited.
  • The yusho parade will be cancelled.

What if confirmed cases turn up?

  • If a rikishi is confirmed with COVID-19, the basho is cancelled forthwith.
  • If an oyakata or a gyoji etc. is positive, they will decide on a case-by-case basis.
  • The question of the effect of basho cancellation on ranking in the next basho is “still under debate”.

What about the heya?

It should be noted that the rikishi have already been warned not to go on unnecessary outings. Many heya have barred their practice grounds to spectators (customarily in non-Tokyo basho open practice sessions are common), and cancelled senshuraku parties and other fan interaction and events. There is going to be a meeting of the heya masters tomorrow, in which the procedure for temperature checking will be explained, and it’s likely that necessity of isolation of the heya members from the general public will also be stressed in that meeting.

Haru Basho to be held sans spectators

Herouth Haru Basho 2020 (Osaka)

In a special meeting of the NSK board, it has been decided that the basho will take place, but spectators will not be admitted.

Hakkaku, the chairman of the board, says that the board had the fans across Japan in mind when making this decision.

This implies that the basho will be televised as usual.

The Osaka Edion Arena is smaller than the Kokugikan and it is estimated they will have to refund around 7000 tickets.

What Does it Take to Become Ozeki?

lksumo Haru Basho 2020 (Osaka)
Takakeisho, the most recent addition to the rank of champions

As a break from the news, let’s revisit what it takes to reach sumo’s second-highest rank. With two aging Yokozuna and only one active Ozeki, we certainly need reinforcements. I took a long look at Ozeki promotions in the six-basho era about a year ago, and would encourage you to look at that post. Since the standards have evolved over time, here I’ll restrict my attention to the past 30 years, during which time there have been 25 Ozeki promotions.

A commonly held belief, echoed by Wikipedia, is that reaching Ozeki takes 33 wins over 3 tournaments while ranked in san’yaku:

A wrestler at the rank of sekiwake will be considered for promotion if he has achieved a total of at least 33 wins over the three most recent tournaments, including ten or more wins in the tournament just completed. Promotion is discretionary and there are no hard-and-fast rules, though a three-tournament record of 33 wins is considered a near-guarantee.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Makuuchi#Promotion_to_%C5%8Dzeki

Here’s a sumodb search that roughly matches these criteria: first basho ranked at least M4, second kosumubi or sekiwake, third sekiwake, with winning records in all 3, at least 10 wins in the third, and 31+ wins over the 3 tournaments. It returns 44 results—the aforementioned 25 promotions and 19 non-promotions. The latter include all 9 instances in which the win total is only 31 (most recently, Asanoyama’s last 3 basho), which I added as a sanity check. While promotions with as few as 28 (!!!) wins happened in the past, there haven’t been any with fewer than 32 since 1985.

So how about the apparent requirement for 33 wins, and the “near-guarantee” they supposedly confer? 35+ wins have indeed been a historical guarantee, with 10 promotions out of 10 instances. Rikishi with 33 and even 34 wins, however, haven’t been locks for promotion: there were only 6 promotions out of 9 for those with 34 wins during their “run”, and 6 out of 8 for those with 33, for a total of 12 out of 17 in this “likely but not certain” range. Takakeisho, of course, famously missed out on promotion with 33 over 3 a year ago, before earning it with 34 over 3 the very next basho.

And just as 33-34 wins isn’t a guarantee, 33 isn’t a requirement—we’ve seen 3 promotions out of 8 for those with 32 wins. This isn’t the 70% rate for those with 33-34, but at 38%, it’s not exactly a rare exception. Both Goeido and Kisenosato were promoted with 32. These numbers will be interesting to keep in mind going forward, as Asanoyama’s total currently stands at 21 over 2 basho, which suggests that he could be promoted after the next basho with as few as 11 wins, but needs 14 to be a lock.

Haru Basho Update – COVID-19 May Impact March Tournament

Bruce H Haru Basho 2020 (Osaka)

In the past day, there has been a flurry of announcements and commentary around the status of the Osaka tournament, set to kick off in just about 10 days. As the Corona virus continues to multiply across several continents, an increasing body of evidence shows that the only way to slow down the spread of the disease is to limit or prevent human social interaction. While the video of the intense quarantine from China and specifically Wuhan has been shocking to western viewers, it seems that it has actually made a difference in slowing down the rate of infection. With an eye toward what China has done, Japan has started to cancel and postpone public events.

First this story from NHK, where Japanese Prime Minster Shinzo Abe has suggested that major sport, cultural and other events should be cancelled, delayed or scaled down for about two weeks. (Video at the link) Abe said, “Now is the crucial time to contain the spread of the virus at an early date.”

Next this twitter post from Tachiai contributor Herouth, stating what many at Team Tachiai suspected, that the NSK is starting to consider curtailing public involvement in Haru, and will meet March 1st to assess the risk to the public of a sumo tournament in mid-March.

An element that will figure into consideration is that Wakayama, adjacent to Osaka, is is an area that is of concern to the Health Ministry due to the number of people currently sick with the virus.

In response to Prime Minister Abe’s recommendation, Kyodo News reports that the Nippon Professional Baseball said Wednesday it will hold all 72 of its remaining preseason games behind closed doors.

Noted sumo commentator and former rikishi, John Gunning, writing for the Japan Times has suggested that calling off Haru would be the right move for the sumo association. In his article (always worth the read) he makes a number of excellent points.

At Tachiai, we are hoping that Haru will move forward in some format, even if we see the rather odd spectacle of competition with no spectators. I personally love the atmospherics that leak into the video feed, and having had the privilege of being present for several tournaments, nothing beats the crowd at these events. But given that many other sporting events are changing format in Japan to protect the public from infection, I suspect we may see the cancelation of Haru. Sumo fans around the globe now wait on the NSK’s special board meeting this Sunday, that will decide the fate of the Haru basho.

UPDATE – As Herouth posted just a few minutes ago to twitter…

Comments getting too heated, and too personal. I have tuned them off – Bruce