Hatsu 2024: Day 14 Highlights

Andy Hatsu 2024, Hatsu Basho , ,

News from the infirmary today was quite the shocker: Hoshoryu is out, a man with an outside role and an important role in this weekend’s action (mainly as speed bump in Terunofuji and Kotonowaka path to the yusho). It changes the math quite a bit as Terunofuji gets a default win, rather than something a bit closer to a coin-flip.

In Juryo, Takerufuji clinched the Juryo yusho and locks in a hefty rise up the banzuke in March, which should be rather close, but just shy, of the makuuchi promotion line.

Makuuchi Action

Endo (5-9) defeated Roga (9-5). Nothing to say about this. Yorikiri.

Takanosho (9-5) defeated Bushozan (4-10). Nothing to say about this. Hatakikomi.

Tsurugisho (8-6) defeated Shimazuumi (9-5). Excellent throw from Tsurugisho. As Shimazuumi charged forward, Tsurugisho swung him forward with his firm left-hand outside grip. Hand on head to help drive him to the clay, textbook. Uwatenage.

Oho (9-5) defeated Takarafuji (5-9). The Takarabune enjoyed a leisurely cruise on a starboard tack, testing the strong easterly winds. Disaster struck quickly when his yard arm broke, somehow penetrated the hull and forced him to sink. The Takarabune will be in drydock to receive some emergency maintenance for tomorrow’s voyage home. Will that be the final sail of the Takarabune? Katasukashi.

Onosato (10-4) defeated Sadanoumi (6-8). Sadanoumi nearly had Onosato! He quickly locked on with his left hand and heaved Onosato to the side. Onosato kept his balance, recovered and drove through the wily veteran. Kirikaeshi.

Kotoshoho (9-5) defeated Mitakeumi (5-9). Nothing to say here but I should have taken the time to grab some coffee. Yorikiri.

Onosho (9-5) defeated Meisei (8-6). Onosho pressed forward but Meisei countered and stopped Onosho’s forward motion. Onosho just wrapped his big arm around Meisei’s neck and swung them both down. Gunbai to Onosho. Mono-ii confirmed the gyoji’s decision. Kubinage.

Tomokaze (5-9) defeated Ichiyamamoto (5-9). Tomokaze charged forward and Ichiyamamoto’s pull yielded nothing. Oshidashi.

Churanoumi (6-8) defeated Shonannoumi (3-11). Churanoumi quickly pulled Shonannoumi down at the tachiai. Tsukiotoshi.

Nishikigi (8-6) defeated Tamawashi (8-6). Tamawashi is already kachi-koshi. He did not go all out. Zero tsuppari. Instead, he tried to wrap up Nishikgi and half-heartedly attemt to pitch him over the side. Really disappointing bout. The two waltzed together, half-way around the ring, before Nishikigi ushered Tamawashi over the edge. Like one of those games in Week 17 where a team with a shot at the playoffs plays the reserves of a team that already has the conference crown locked up two weeks before. Yorikiri.

Halftime

Hiradoumi (7-7) defeated Tobizaru (7-7). Hiradoumi locked horns with Tobizaru. Tobizaru escaped his grip but Hiradoumi continued to press forward and bulldozed Tobizaru from the ring. Onshidashi.

Gonoyama (5-9) defeated Myogiryu (4-10). Myogiryu tried to throw Gonoyama but Gonoyama escaped and shoved Myogiryu out. Oshidashi.

Midorifuji (5-9) defeated Ryuden (3-11). Midorifuji got a lock on Ryuden’s shoulder, and spun him to the ground. Katasukashi.

Abi (8-6) defeated Wakamotoharu (9-5). Abi’s attempted henka was caught by Wakamotoharu but as Wakamotoharu attacked, Abi ducked away again. Both men stepped out so a mono-ii was declared and the gyoji’s decision was confirmed. Hikiotoshi.

Asanoyama (9-2-3) defeated Atamifuji (6-8). Asanoyama plugged forward and drove Atamifuji out. I have seen a lot of pulling from Atamifuji during this tournament and it seems to coincide with some interesting calls from the judges to favor the forward-moving rikishi. Atamifuji might want to refocus his efforts on improving his forward moving sumo that had been so successful. Yorikiri.

Sanyaku

Ura (5-9) defeated Shodai (4-10). Ura bulled forward, head down into Shodai. Shodai tried to rip Ura’s arm out (or just heave him over the bales) but Ura retreated. In retreat Ura grabbed Shodai’s right arm, dragged him forward and forced him down. This is the beauty of sumo. Tottari.

Terunofuji (12-2) fusensho. Hoshoryu (10-4) kyujo.

Daieisho (8-6) defeated Kinbozan (6-8). Kinbozan spent this bout pivoting and retreating from Daieisho’s thrusts. But Daieisho pursued and never lost his footing. Oshidashi.

Kotonowaka (12-2) defeated Kirishima (11-3). The big bout of the day. Matta. Matta. Kirishima came at Kotonowaka with a nodowa and apparently no plan for what to do afterward. Kotonowaka endured the nodowa and held his ground. “Is that all you have, geezer?” Kotonowaka broke off the grip and then followed up his own nodowa with an effective pulldown. That forced Kirishima forward and allowed Kotonowaka to come in from behind and shove Kirishima out. Yorikiri.

Wrap-up

I think a lot of the Kirishima skepticism was proven justified today. These results do not entirely close the door to yusho (and likely Yokozuna promotion) but it is being held open a mere crack. Maybe Hoshoryu’s real injury is that his knee is stuck in that door. Let’s look at the math. For a Kirishima yusho he will need to beat Terunofuji tomorrow, Kotonowaka will need to lose, and then Kirishima would have to defeat both in consecutive bouts in the resulting playoff. If each bout is a coinflip, we’re looking at a 6% chance. Since we know these bouts are not coin-flips, the real probability is less than 0.06.

The real yusho race now comes down to Terunofuji and Kotonowaka. We have already discussed what happens if both men lose. If both men win their bouts tomorrow, they will face each other in a playoff. If either man wins while the other loses, the man who wins his bout will claim the yusho with a 13-2 record.

Now, to Kotonowaka’s other prize here: Ozeki promotion. Do you think he has done enough already, with today’s victory over Kirishima? I doubt it. Since he will face a maegashira tomorrow, he will be expected to win that bout and face Terunofuji in a playoff, if he doesn’t win the yusho outright. I am not sure if the Kyokai will draw that line in the sand and make it clear between now and then but I will bring any updates to you.

Hoshoryu Kyujo

Andy Aki Basho 2022
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With this news, Terunofuji will get an all-important default victory, essentially an automatic bye into “the finals” on senshuraku. The Kirishima-Kotonowaka bout will be the musubi-no-ichiban; they do not end a Match Day with a fusen.

So, let’s go through the implications. We already knew Terunofuji and Kirishima would fight on Senshuraku. If Kirishima wins tonight against Kotonowaka, the two will face each other in a spectacular Yokozuna-Ozeki title bout that we have not seen since the magical Hakuho vs Terunofuji bout in July 2021.

If Kotonowaka wins, things will get a little messy. If Terunofuji beats Kirishima, we will have a playoff if Kotonowaka defeats his opponent. But…who would he fight? Tobizaru? Asanoyama? If Terunofuji loses that senshuraku bout, and Kotonowaka win both nights, Kotonowaka wins the yusho outright, with 13-wins.

If Kirishima loses tonight but beats Terunofuji tomorrow AND Kotonowaka loses to his opponent, we will have an exciting three-way playoff for the yusho!

Hatsu 2024: Day 13 Highlights

Andy Hatsu 2024, Hatsu Basho , , , ,

Today is when the top four guys finally start to face off with the yusho on the line! Everyone else is fighting for pride and a few still have a shot at special prizes, notably Nishonoseki’s big protégé, Onosato. There was also some excitement earlier in the day when Wakatakakage claimed the Makushita yusho. Ajigawa-beya celebrated the Jonokuchi yusho as Anhibiki went undefeated. And Fujiseiun battled back from injury to take the Sandanme crown. Congratulations, men! Jonidan will be decided in a playoff between Aonishiki and Chiyotaiko.

Makuuchi Action

Tohakuryu (7-6) defeated Takarafuji (5-8). The Takarabune attempted to set sail today but a fierce dragon tore at her mast with its powerful talons, and dashed the broken vessel along the rocks. Tsukidashi.

Onosato (9-4) defeated Takanosho (8-5). Onosato kept his head down and shoved Takanosho out. Oshidashi.

Sadanoumi (6-7) defeated Tomokaze (4-9). Sadanoumi outlasted Tomokaze’s tsuppari and blasted the come-back kid with some of his own. Oshidashi.

Tamawashi (8-5) defeated Churanoumi (5-8). A bit of back and forth to start as Churanoumi forced Tamawashi back. Once Tamawashi turned it on, though, he charged forward with powerful blasts and nodowa, and sent Churanoumi flying back. Oshitaoshi.

Meisei (8-5) defeated Kotonosho (8-5). Fierceful tsuppari here. Fantastic slapfest. Kotonowaka tried to slip out of the way of Meisei but Meisei recovered and re-engaged. More tsuppari ensued before Meisei deftly slipped to the side and pushed Kotoshoho down by the shoulder. Tsukiotoshi.

Shimazuumi (9-4) defeated Mitakeumi (5-8). Shimazuumi charged forward and forced Mitakeumi to the bales. Mitakeumi resisted twice, trying to throw Shimazuumi. But Shimazuumi got in behind Mitakeumi and forced him out from the back. Okuridashi.

Oho (8-5) defeated Hiradoumi (6-7). Great back-and-forth before Oho really got Hiradoumi in trouble. Hiradoumi retreated but Oho pursued quickly. Alert leg sweep combined with a hearty shove. Oshitaoshi.

Shonannoumi (3-10) defeated Bushozan (4-9). Shonannoumi’s core strategy has been figured out. Bushozan was wise to the pull and did not fall for it. Tsukiotoshi.

Endo (4-9) defeated Ryuden (3-10). Endo charged forward and pushed Ryuden to the bales. Rather than continue to press forward, Endo grabbed Ryuden and executed a twisting throw. Sukuinage.

Tsurugisho (7-6) defeated Shodai (4-9). The pair of wrestlers settled into a lean. Shodai shifted and baited Tsurugisho into driving forward. Shodai twisted at the edge, and forced Tsurugisho down. Gunbai Shodai. Mono-ii. Shimpan were not satisfied that Shodai had won so they demanded a Torinaoshi (re-do). In the rematch, Tsurugisho pushed Shodai back and then slapped him down. Satisfied that Shodai had lost, the shimpan stayed silent. Someone, call the keisatsu; Shodai was robbed. I demand an investigation. “Hatakikomi.”

Halftime.

Asanoyama (8-2-3) defeated Gonoyama (4-9) Asanoyama charged forward early. The pair reset. Asanoyama charged forward early again? Henka incoming? No. Great, satisfying initial charge. Gonoyama came at Asanoyama with fierce tsuppari that pushed Asanoyama back. But Asanoyama grabbed Gonoyama’s left arm at the edge and twisted Gonoyama down. Asanoyama earned his kachi-koshi. It took a while for the final kimarite call, kotenage.

Abi (7-8) defeated Ichiyamamoto (5-8). Abi pressed forward as Ichi pulled. Abi stayed in the ring as Ichiyamamoto jumped out and Ichi’s slapdown attempt came to nothing. Tsukidashi.

Midorifuji (4-9) defeated Myogiryu (4-9). Myogiryu tried to wrap Midorifuji up with a kimedashi. But this gave Midorifuji a morozashi. Midorifuji used his firm hold around Myogiryu’s trunk and spun Myogiryu down. Makiotoshi.

Atamifuji (6-7) defeated Kinbozan (6-7). Kinbozan is hurt, as lushi888 mentioned in the comments. Kinbozan tried a henka but Atamifuji caught him and shoved him out. When he got caught, Kinbozan capitulated. He knew he was done. Oshidashi.

Wakamotoharu (9-4) defeated Onosho (8-5). Onosho attempted to pull Wakamotoharu down but Wakamotoharu was wise to it. WMH just pressed forward and shoved Onosho out. Oshidashi.

Sanyaku

Ura defeated Tobizaru. Ura charged forward as Tobizaru threw him. Ura was upside-down in the air while Tobizaru stepped out. Gunbai went to Tobizaru, which I tend to agree with here. But I could easily see a reversal or torinaoshi called. The shimpan obliged and reversed the gyoji’s decision, much to Tobizaru’s disbelief. He did step out before Ura fell. And somehow Ura was not dead. Force out while inverted and airborne. Yorikiri. (I swear, someone has been hitting the sake hard today with these kimarite calls.)

Nishikigi (7-6) defeated Daieisho (7-6). Daieisho fell to his weakness. He charged forward, blasting away, when suddenly Nishikigi was no longer there and Daieisho fell to the ground. Hikiotoshi.

Kirishima (11-2) defeated Hoshoryu (10-3). That was a great bout. Kirishima got the left-hand inside. Hoshoryu’s eyes got big as he charged forward with a strong lefthand inside, right-hand outside. However, Kirishima tripped him and dragged him down with his own left-hand grip. What a beautiful move. Nimaigeri.

Terunofuji (11-2) defeated Kotonowaka (11-2). Terunofuji wrapped up Kotonowaka’s right arm at the tachiai. He had nearly taken the left arm, too. But Kotonowaka had just pulled that back. Panic seemed to set in Kotonowaka’s eyes. He tried to press forward and grasp Terunofuji’s belt but that allowed Terunofuji to wrap up Kotonowaka’s trunk with the right arm, too. So, Kotonowaka tried to pull but the Yokozuna accepted the opportunity to charge forward, released Kotowaka’s arm in favor of the belt, and forced Kotonowaka out. Yorikiri.

Wrap-up

If Daieisho figures out how to do his sumo without falling for the slapdowns and changes of direction, forget Ozeki, he will be Yokozuna. But he keeps falling flat on his face.

Well, while the Kyokai hit the izakaya to figure out the bouts for tomorrow, I am going to make some coffee and post this account of today’s action. I’ll follow up tonight with a brief look at tomorrow’s bouts.

Hatsu 2024: Day 12 Highlights

Andy Hatsu 2024, Hatsu Basho , , , , ,

News from the infirmary, as we discussed yesterday, Kotoeko is back today and picked up a wicked win against Yuma. The little man used a “big man” attack with the double-outside grip to neutralize Yuma in a way that Terunofuji usually tries. He then whipped Yuma around and brought him to the ground for an impressive Kimetaoshi win.

In the top division, Asanoyama will return and take on Gonoyama. A win between now and senshuraku will secure the all important kachi-koshi. Ankle sprains are funny. A few times, I’ve sprained my ankle and been fine the next day or after a couple of days. Then, there was the time I sprained it while trying to dig out the root ball from a massive, dead azalea bush. I took it easy and reaggravated it weeks later, just stepping off the porch onto a slightly uneven patch of dirt. Here, I am hoping that Asanoyama did not have one of those sprains.

Makuuchi Action

Shimazuumi (8-4) defeated Churanoumi (5-7). It looked like Shimazuumi was trying to get his left-hand inside but when it was not forthcoming, he just gave up and threw from the other side. Kotenage.

Oho (7-5) defeated Bushozan (4-8). Bushozan is no Sekiwake. Grateful to be back among the plebs, a few shoves and Oho showed Bushozan the exit. Oshidashi.

Sadanoumi (5-7) defeated Takarafuji (5-7). Today, the Takarabune set sail to the Sada Seas. However, he faced a powerful westerly headwind and was blown way off course. Yorikiri.

Tomokaze (4-8) defeated Mitakeumi (5-7). Long belt battle here where Mitakeumi seemed to be waiting to counter. Tomokaze took the initiative, pulled up hard, and bulldozed Mitakeumi over the edge. Yoritaoshi.

Myogiryu (4-8) defeated Meisei (7-5). Myogiryu forced Meisei to slip with a beautiful push down and side-step. Meisei tried to adjust but lost his footing. Hatakikomi.

Hiradoumi (6-6) defeated Endo (3-9). Hiradoumi overpowered Endo. Endo bent over after going over the bales, in either pain or exhaustion. I’m leaning toward pain and nagging injury but either way, not a good sign. Well, his performance this tournament has been a massive neon sign reading, “BAD NEWS HERE.” Yorikiri.

Tsurugisho (6-6) defeated Kinbozan (6-6). Kinbozan in a belt battle, so Tsurugisho just yanked him to the side. Kinbozan hopped a bit, favoring his right foot. We will watch that over the next few days. Yorikiri.

Tobizaru (7-5) defeated Ichiyamamoto (5-7). Ichiyamamoto tried his thing but got pushed out first. Gunbai to the guy moving forward. Oshidashi.

Shonannoumi (2-10) defeated Shodai (4-8). Shonannoumi was fixated on Shodai’s left arm from the tachiai. One surge of power at the edge and he forced Shodai to the ground. Kotenage.

Halftime (Shuffle, shuffle, sweep, sweep)

Abi (6-6) defeated Midorifuji (3-9). Abi tried out yotsu-zumo with the smaller Midorifuji. I am a little surprised he could not throw Midorifuji earlier. Instead, he did work him over the bales. Yorikiri.

Kotoshoho (8-4) defeated Wakamotoharu (8-4). Kotoshoho earned his kachi-koshi this tournament. He got thrown up to fight Wakamotoharu at M1 and took him, toe-to-toe. Both guys had strong left-hand inside position. While Kotoshoho was driving forward to the edge, Wakamotoharu tried to twist and throw…but Kotoshoho did not go. Instead, he crushed Wakamotoharu over the bales. Yoritaoshi.

Nishikigi (6-6) defeated Atamifuji (5-7). Atamifuji has been enjoying the edge work lately, let the opponent back you up and then dump him to the side. Atamifuji hit Nishikigi full on at the tachiai and then seemed to just wait. He waited for Nishikigi to bull forward. So, Nishikigi did. But he didn’t go over the side. He just drove Atamifuji out. This was the first time that I was truly disappointed in Atamifuji this tournament. I felt like he could have done something to show us some power and aggression, rather than passively losing.Yorikiri.

Sanyaku

Ura (3-9) defeated Gonoyama (4-8). Ura baited Gonoyama into pitching himself too far forward and stepping to the side, inashi, so Gonoyama would fall forward. Hikiotoshi.

Kotonowaka (11-1) defeated Onosho (8-4). Onosho slipped. Hatakikomi.

Daieisho (7-5) defeated Ryuden (3-9). Ryuden was of one mind this entire bout, “I must get that belt.” He did not. Instead, Daieisho battered him with tsuppari and then slapped him down when he reached in too far. Hatakikomi.

Hoshoryu (10-2) defeated Takanosho (8-4). Hoshoryu said, “come here.” Takanosho obliged and drove forward. Hoshoryu found his belt and dumped Takanosho to the side. Cake Walk. Shitatenage.

Kirishima (10-2) defeated Tamawashi (7-5). Kirishima took on Tamawashi’s oshi-tsuki style and even attempted a kotenage before slapping the veteran down. Hatakikomi.

Terunofuji (10-2) defeated Onosato (8-4). Terunofuji took his time to acquire the grip he wanted and then yanked Onosato across the ring and over the edge. Uwatenage.

Wrap-up

The action heats up tomorrow as Terunofuji takes on the tournament leader, Kotonowaka, in the Musubi-no-ichiban. Before that, Kirishima will take on Hoshoryu. Oh, snap.

After these two bouts, there are two possible outcomes: we will either have three men at 11-2 or one at 12-1, one at 11-2, and two on 10-3. These final three days should work out, essentially, as a round robin with Kotonowaka having the edge. If he wins out, he wins the title and gets promoted.

Kotonowaka’s Ozeki promotion status sits at 31 wins over three tournaments. Some will point out that one of his wins during this tournament was a fusen/default victory and over the course of the last three days he has fought an M15, M14, and M11. With Takakeisho out, added with Takayasu, there are two top level vacancies in this schedule. He will have three tough matches here to close out the tournament. Two wins and he will hit 33 and it is likely a done deal. Three wins and it is a done deal. One win and there is still, certainly, a strong case that over the past four tournaments he has performed consistent, top-level sumo. If he loses all three, though, I cannot imagine this being enough.

Now, to Kirishima’s Yokozuna run. If he wins the next three matches, there is a possibility he will win the yusho outright or at least be in a playoff. If he wins the yusho outright, or in a playoff, the rope is his. If he wins three bouts and loses a playoff, well, I am not so sure. But my gut tells me that it’s more likely he earns promotion, even with a playoff loss. If he stumbles against any of his three opponents this weekend, there may still be a window for a yusho through a playoff. Again, a playoff loss may be enough.

So, yes…as Colby pointed out a few days ago, there is a possibility here that I am not saying out loud because I am not going to be the one to jinx it. Fingers and toes have been crossed for a few days now. I think I’m starting to lose circulation in my digits. It’s also very difficult to type. That’s what I am blaming the lateness of today’s update on.