News from the infirmary today was quite the shocker: Hoshoryu is out, a man with an outside role and an important role in this weekend’s action (mainly as speed bump in Terunofuji and Kotonowaka path to the yusho). It changes the math quite a bit as Terunofuji gets a default win, rather than something a bit closer to a coin-flip.
In Juryo, Takerufuji clinched the Juryo yusho and locks in a hefty rise up the banzuke in March, which should be rather close, but just shy, of the makuuchi promotion line.
Makuuchi Action
Endo (5-9) defeated Roga (9-5). Nothing to say about this. Yorikiri.
Takanosho (9-5) defeated Bushozan (4-10). Nothing to say about this. Hatakikomi.
Tsurugisho (8-6) defeated Shimazuumi (9-5). Excellent throw from Tsurugisho. As Shimazuumi charged forward, Tsurugisho swung him forward with his firm left-hand outside grip. Hand on head to help drive him to the clay, textbook. Uwatenage.
Oho (9-5) defeated Takarafuji (5-9). The Takarabune enjoyed a leisurely cruise on a starboard tack, testing the strong easterly winds. Disaster struck quickly when his yard arm broke, somehow penetrated the hull and forced him to sink. The Takarabune will be in drydock to receive some emergency maintenance for tomorrow’s voyage home. Will that be the final sail of the Takarabune? Katasukashi.
Onosato (10-4) defeated Sadanoumi (6-8). Sadanoumi nearly had Onosato! He quickly locked on with his left hand and heaved Onosato to the side. Onosato kept his balance, recovered and drove through the wily veteran. Kirikaeshi.
Kotoshoho (9-5) defeated Mitakeumi (5-9). Nothing to say here but I should have taken the time to grab some coffee. Yorikiri.
Onosho (9-5) defeated Meisei (8-6). Onosho pressed forward but Meisei countered and stopped Onosho’s forward motion. Onosho just wrapped his big arm around Meisei’s neck and swung them both down. Gunbai to Onosho. Mono-ii confirmed the gyoji’s decision. Kubinage.
Tomokaze (5-9) defeated Ichiyamamoto (5-9). Tomokaze charged forward and Ichiyamamoto’s pull yielded nothing. Oshidashi.
Churanoumi (6-8) defeated Shonannoumi (3-11). Churanoumi quickly pulled Shonannoumi down at the tachiai. Tsukiotoshi.
Nishikigi (8-6) defeated Tamawashi (8-6). Tamawashi is already kachi-koshi. He did not go all out. Zero tsuppari. Instead, he tried to wrap up Nishikgi and half-heartedly attemt to pitch him over the side. Really disappointing bout. The two waltzed together, half-way around the ring, before Nishikigi ushered Tamawashi over the edge. Like one of those games in Week 17 where a team with a shot at the playoffs plays the reserves of a team that already has the conference crown locked up two weeks before. Yorikiri.
Halftime
Hiradoumi (7-7) defeated Tobizaru (7-7). Hiradoumi locked horns with Tobizaru. Tobizaru escaped his grip but Hiradoumi continued to press forward and bulldozed Tobizaru from the ring. Onshidashi.
Gonoyama (5-9) defeated Myogiryu (4-10). Myogiryu tried to throw Gonoyama but Gonoyama escaped and shoved Myogiryu out. Oshidashi.
Midorifuji (5-9) defeated Ryuden (3-11). Midorifuji got a lock on Ryuden’s shoulder, and spun him to the ground. Katasukashi.
Abi (8-6) defeated Wakamotoharu (9-5). Abi’s attempted henka was caught by Wakamotoharu but as Wakamotoharu attacked, Abi ducked away again. Both men stepped out so a mono-ii was declared and the gyoji’s decision was confirmed. Hikiotoshi.
Asanoyama (9-2-3) defeated Atamifuji (6-8). Asanoyama plugged forward and drove Atamifuji out. I have seen a lot of pulling from Atamifuji during this tournament and it seems to coincide with some interesting calls from the judges to favor the forward-moving rikishi. Atamifuji might want to refocus his efforts on improving his forward moving sumo that had been so successful. Yorikiri.
Sanyaku
Ura (5-9) defeated Shodai (4-10). Ura bulled forward, head down into Shodai. Shodai tried to rip Ura’s arm out (or just heave him over the bales) but Ura retreated. In retreat Ura grabbed Shodai’s right arm, dragged him forward and forced him down. This is the beauty of sumo. Tottari.
Terunofuji (12-2) fusensho. Hoshoryu (10-4) kyujo.
Daieisho (8-6) defeated Kinbozan (6-8). Kinbozan spent this bout pivoting and retreating from Daieisho’s thrusts. But Daieisho pursued and never lost his footing. Oshidashi.
Kotonowaka (12-2) defeated Kirishima (11-3). The big bout of the day. Matta. Matta. Kirishima came at Kotonowaka with a nodowa and apparently no plan for what to do afterward. Kotonowaka endured the nodowa and held his ground. “Is that all you have, geezer?” Kotonowaka broke off the grip and then followed up his own nodowa with an effective pulldown. That forced Kirishima forward and allowed Kotonowaka to come in from behind and shove Kirishima out. Yorikiri.
Wrap-up
I think a lot of the Kirishima skepticism was proven justified today. These results do not entirely close the door to yusho (and likely Yokozuna promotion) but it is being held open a mere crack. Maybe Hoshoryu’s real injury is that his knee is stuck in that door. Let’s look at the math. For a Kirishima yusho he will need to beat Terunofuji tomorrow, Kotonowaka will need to lose, and then Kirishima would have to defeat both in consecutive bouts in the resulting playoff. If each bout is a coinflip, we’re looking at a 6% chance. Since we know these bouts are not coin-flips, the real probability is less than 0.06.
The real yusho race now comes down to Terunofuji and Kotonowaka. We have already discussed what happens if both men lose. If both men win their bouts tomorrow, they will face each other in a playoff. If either man wins while the other loses, the man who wins his bout will claim the yusho with a 13-2 record.
Now, to Kotonowaka’s other prize here: Ozeki promotion. Do you think he has done enough already, with today’s victory over Kirishima? I doubt it. Since he will face a maegashira tomorrow, he will be expected to win that bout and face Terunofuji in a playoff, if he doesn’t win the yusho outright. I am not sure if the Kyokai will draw that line in the sand and make it clear between now and then but I will bring any updates to you.
Hopefully Kotonowaka gets his Ozeki promotion, if he is promoted, he will be changing his Shikona to Kotozakura, his grandfather’s Shikona.
I was waiting for Hoshoryu vs Kotonowaka, unfortunately Hoshoryu kyujo.
Regarding Juryo is there still chance for Takerufuji to reach Makuchi?
Waiting for lksumo’s promotion demotion analysis.
Takerufuji’s ride up depends if the relevant members of the Kyokai hit the hash pipe before deciding the banzuke.
One more win tomorrow and maybe, pending who goes down (and there are some candidates between performance and the kyujo records). I’d bet he comes up (but I wouldn’t put a lot of money on that bet, more like a side bet to go along with betting Teru takes the Yusho).
It looks like there are only 3-4 guys going down with a higher number of guys in front of him in the promotion queue. My guess would be that he comes up short. But tomorrow’s action will be crucial for several edge cases. Notably, we have Daiamami and Mitoryu. Might Myogiryu go down? Endo may be safe… barely.
As I said the other day, Kotonowaka is going to piss off a lot of Mongolian sumo fans. Something tells me Kiri wins tomorrow against Teru and Kotonowaka wins it outright.
I hope not though, we want the playoff!
Well that has to be one of my favourite days this basho, apart from not seeing the Kaiju fight of course and the sinking of Takarabune.
From Churanoumi to Gonayama excellent wins for my boys and anyone who does what Midorifuji did to Ryuden…..whee!! The clash of the forces of chaos didn’t disappoint, just colour me pink! 🙃
After reading this article, I am just thinking:
A couple of bashos ago, I can’t remember exactly when, Hakuoho did a matta two or three times, and I remember one of the shimpan commenting that it was not a mata but a deliberate tactic by the young wrestler to distract his opponent. Now I wonder if Koto’s matta was intentional; he definitely tired and distracted Kiri. Anyway, he won the match, and I don’t blame him. Kiri made a mistake when he did not use his right hand for a couple of seconds and waited for Koto to act. Kiri seemed confused and got a yorikiri.
I expect tomorrow to be an easy day. Teru will be the winner of the yusho. And I will be very happy about this. Koto will receive the title of ozeki, and he deserves it.
Oh, yeah. Matta are definitely a tactic.
Sometimes, a matta is just a manifestation of nervousness.
Yes. And sometimes it is strategic.
It looked to me as if it was Kiri engaging in gamesmanship. Koto had both hands firmly down, waiting, and it looked as if Kiri wanted to make the slightest possible gesture with his left hand while already being in motion – the equivalent of yelling “go” just as you start moving in a race. And it looked as if it worked: Koto didn’t get to off to the start he wanted, though he recovered.
Oh no, the boring wrestler one! Kirishima too nervous and stuttery. The fire dragons (Kiri and Shoryu) will be back to save sumo from the plodding cave trolls!
I’m with you markianmurphy. Plotting Cave Troll, perfect name. As my mother used to say “He’s got the personality of a wet dish rag.”
Much like Al Gore when he ran for president, the guy couldn’t excite a dung beetle with a truck load of manure. He’s a founding member of The Cult Of No Personality.
Funny, I would be quite happy if I had a personality that would make more than 50% of the American voters choose me. But, of course, compared with some grumpy old men‘s charisma, that is nothing!
You forgot one little thing…..the Electoral College. Gotta get the 270 from them not the 50% plus of the popular vote. Also, remember that Gore lost his home state of Tennessee to Bush. His own peeps didn’t vote for him.
And while I might be a “grumpy old man”, I can assure you that I have enough charisma to excite a dung beetle just by talking about a truck load of manure.
Am I totally wrong or are U talking about Kotonowaka?
If I am not totally wrong, then U are!
What is boring about a still young wrestler, who is improving in little steps from basho to basho and who is no one trick pony?
Well, probably he changes the colour of his mawashi too seldom for your taste?!
Thanks for putting a smile on my face with your condescending comment herbern.
Perhaps I am wrong, but didn’t Midorifuji win by tottari?
Nice energy and grit by Ura today… hopefully he regains his consistency back in the rank and file
Ah, apologies… thinking about Ura… forgot Midorifuji used his favorite tactic
That was a bit disappointing. I don‘t believe Kirishima had no plan, but he’s only thinking too much and trying too witty for not to make a mistake. Also his right hand gesture while nodowa’ing had a bit of a mocking quality. So revenge came quickly.
Sometimes he reminds me of a certain soccer legend, who revealed after his career end that he was often perceiving things in kind of slow motion. Like he was dribbling his way around frozen characters. Imagine the Star Trek crew in a spacetime curvature… So when Kirishima takes the nano second to grip and let a mawashi, then instantly changes the strategy, it seems like he experiences something similiar. But why did it not work on day 14? Maybe he was too self assured by all the wins over Kotonowaka earlier. Things change.