With the official November banzuke released, let’s take a look at how the Crystal Ball fared.
Komusubi
Right off the bat, my Komusubi West prediction was wrong. They went with M4e Shodai (10-5) over my guess, M7e Wakatakakage (12-3), and M2w Oho (9-6). Like I said, you could make valid arguments for any of the three, and at least I am happy to see my favorite wrestler (yes, you read that right) back in the named ranks.
M1e-M2e
Had I picked Komusubi West correctly, I probably would have gotten this right, but with my choice of WTK there, I went with Shodai-Oho-Hiradoumi rather than the actual order of Oho-Hiradoumi-WTK.
M3e-M4e
I got the three contenders here right, but erred a bit on the order by going with M2e Atamifuji (7-8), S1e Abi (5-10), and M7w Churanoumi (10-5). Abi got even more leniency than I expected, going ahead of Atamifuji, who can be miffed at his slight over-demotion.
M14-M17
The main thing I’m happy about is picking all 42 Makuuchi rikishi correctly, since the promotion-demotion picture wasn’t obvious at all. In terms of the exact rankings, Nishikifuji lucked out yet again by getting placed ahead of Onokatsu despite deserving to be behind him. And getting the last three rikishi right—M12e Bushozan (4-11), J11w Takerufuji (13-2) and J8e Asakoryu (11-4)—got me minimal Guess the Banzuke points because the banzuke committee ended up placing Bushozan at M17w, behind the borderline Juryo promotions.
Elsewhere
Here’s what I wrote in my prediction post:
Other smaller question marks: Roga/Gonoyama, Takayasu/Ichiyamamoto, Tamawashi/Meisei, Hokutofuji/Sadanoumi. And of course, count on the banzuke committee to make some completely unanticipated decisions that’ll leave us scratching our heads.
I got all those orders right, but it didn’t matter, because boy did the banzuke committee live up to that expectation. The main trend was the return of very lenient demotions for upper maegashira with terrible records. M1e Takanosho (4-11) landed a full rank higher than he deserved, and M3e Mitakeumi (4-11) benefited by a rank and a half. He and Wakatakakage were my biggest misses, but the overall effect of a lot of small differences on my GTB guess was … not good.
Oh well. I’m happy to see new Ozeki Onosato, Shodai at Komusubi, Wakatakakage climbing the ranks, and Shishi, Takerufuji, and Asakoryu in the top division! In Juryo, Hakuoho is back up to J2, Aonishiki debuts at J11, and Wakaikari and Kotoeiho (the artist formerly known as Kototebakari) at J13. On to the basho!
The changing of the sumo guard is now in full swing. How rude, you say! Terunofuji is still a potent technician in the ring and a yusho threat every time he steps on the dohyo. In fact, over his yokozuna tenure (so far) he has an almost 50% yusho win rate if he shows up on day 1 of the basho, but he is also at a stage in his career where he misses more tournaments than he makes, and the end draws nearer every day. Now, with the retirement in September of his main rival, Takakeisho, who was himself a several-time candidate for the white rope, I think it’s fair that we be allowed to turn our attentions to the next generation and have some fun speculating over the big question on everyone’s minds:
Who is next in line for sumo’s throne?
A few fun facts before we get started. Yokozuna promotions are a regular occurrence in sumo, but they are not frequent. There have only been 73 in the last 275 years, which is an average of 1 yokozuna every 3.77 years. Spoken another way, that’s a new yokozuna every 23ish basho.
Recent history seems to maintain this trend. If we only consider the last 10 yokozuna promotions (starting with the elevation of the late, great Akebono in March 1993), then we see the average gap between yokozuna promotions shrink only marginally, to 3.098 years, or just over 18 basho. The shortest gap during that time was exactly one year, between the promotions of Wakanohana and Musashimaru. The longest gap was between Hakuho and Harumafuji, a span of 5 years and 4 months, or 32 basho(!), which I believe can be easily explained by Hakuho’s (and until 2010, Asashoryu’s) utter dominance during that period.
So where does that leave us? Looking at the numbers, it would appear we are due, as it has now been just over 3 years since Terunofuji’s promotion. Who will next rise to claim the title? There are several contenders, some more likely than others, and I have separated them into 3 categories: front runners, dark horses, and prospects.
Front runners:
Onosato, Kotozakura, Hoshoryu
It should come as no surprise that the most promising candidates are our three current ozeki. They are all still young, and Aki’s lackluster performances notwithstanding, appear increasingly strong in their sumo. Onosato’s rise to ozeki is the fastest in professional history, and with 2 yusho already in 5 top division basho he is my runaway favorite, but I would not sleep on his ozeki rivals either. Both Kotozakura and Hoshoryu have jun-yusho in the last year, and neither have logged a losing record / gone kadoban since attaining their ozeki rank. Not every yokozuna breezes through ozeki (Harumafuji took 22 basho to earn the rope; Musashimaru took 32).
I’d say all three current ozeki have the makings of a grand champion—it is simply down to them to execute. With his size, strength, and overwhelming style, Onosato seems not a question of “if” but “when.” Kotozakura reminds me of Kisenosato with his disciplined, patient sumo—let’s hope he doesn’t also share the former yokozuna’s yusho woes. Hoshoryu, meanwhile, has always held an athleticism edge over his foes, beating them to the punch and pulling off spectacular counters, but now he seems to be bulking to match their size. Let’s hope his gains don’t come at the expense of his agility and finesse.
Dark horses:
Kirishima, Wakatakakage
Hear me out. Yes, both men are closer to age 30 than the front runners, and neither are currently ozeki due to unfortunate injuries—Wakatakakage’s coming before he could earn promotion and Kirishima’s, sadly, coming just after his ozeki rise.
BUT, both men, when healthy, are strong, technical, and tenacious. Both are former yusho winners (Kirishima won two just last year, don’t forget), and both had identical 12-3 records in this most recent Aki basho. To me this signals potential, even if the likelihood is not high. Both would have to earn (or re-earn) promotion to ozeki first, and then elevate their wrestling further while fending off a host of talented rivals, but crazier things have happened (see: Terunofuji’s career). If both men can preserve their good health long enough to sustain the runs they started in September, their shot at ozeki—and subsequently yokozuna—will be better than most.
Prospects:
Takerufuji, Atamifuji, Hakuoho
There are dozens of young rikishi who may unexpectedly become the next world beater in sumo, but Leonid won’t lend me his banzuke crystal ball, so there’s no point in making wild guesses.
Aw heck, let’s do it anyway. There are a trio of rikishi who, in my opinion, pass “the smell test” of a sumo star in the making, and they are debutant yusho winner Takerufuji, his baby-faced teammate Atamifuji, and the Boss’s protégé, Hakuoho.
Because he’s already held the Emperor’s Cup, it makes sense to me to start with Takerufuji, even though he’s (at the time of this writing) the lowest ranked of the three. The same age as Hoshoryu, he would likely already be making his own run at ozeki if not for that fateful ankle injury, but the good news is that the recovery process seems not to have diminished him whatsoever. His official comeback in Aki took the form of a dominant Juryo yusho, and if he’s not back in Makuuchi next basho, I fear for the second tier. He looks that strong, the proverbial unstoppable force who has yet to meet the immovable object, and unless another injury sidelines him, I think his bullet train oshi style could carry him all the way to sumo’s peak.
His teammate, Atamifuji, has had a quieter—yet more steady—rise, but he’s already got a pair of jun-yusho to his name and is now threatening for sanyaku promotion at the tender age of 22. Don’t let the baby face or the goofy pre-bout dance routine fool you. He’s BIG, he’s strong, and he’s exceptionally patient in his sumo for one so young. I fully expect Atami to threaten for ozeki promotion within the next two years, and from there, who knows his ceiling? Not I.
Lastly, I’d like to speak briefly on Hakuoho, the pride of (temporarily disbanded) Miyagino stable. The best sumo wrestler to ever do it thinks this kid’s got what it takes, so who am I to gainsay him? The only thing standing in this young man’s way is injuries, and to see all the tape on him, you can’t help but feel his hurt. Hakuoho’s initial rise into the salaried ranks was nothing short of impressive, with displays of technical polish you just don’t see in rikishi that young, and if he can get healthy, I fully expect to see him reassert that prowess against the top division again.
There are of course others with promise—Hiradoumi and Oho come to mind, as well as a slew of lower division youngsters who appear to have a future in the top division—but we haven’t the time for them all. I’m sure many will also protest the exclusion of the likes of Wakamotoharu and Daieisho, but in my opinion both are too old and too limited to make a legitimate run at ozeki, let alone yokozuna. As I said up above, this is my smell test and nothing more. Feel free to tell me in the comments who’s on your olfactory radar, and if 5 years down the road you happen to be right, save this post and rub my nose in it.
With the November banzuke dropping a week from now, it’s time to post my prediction. I’ll go through the major question marks below; scroll down if you just want to see the guess.
Komusubi
With one Komusubi slot open via Daieisho’s likely promotion to Sekiwake, and the other via demotion of K1w Hiradoumi (7-8), we need two replacements. M3w Wakamotoharu (11-4) has a clear claim on K1e. Whom to put on the West side is less clear. I’ve gone with little bro M7e Wakatakakage (12-3), who has the best numerical case, but M4e Shodai (10-5) faced a stronger schedule, as did M2w Oho (9-6), who also beat Shodai on Day 15, and you can make valid arguments for any of the three.
M1e-M2e
The first three maegashira slots will be filled, in some order, by Hiradoumi plus whichever two of the trio above miss out on Komusubi. The order is unclear though. All three maegashira have strong enough rank-record combinations to be ahead of Hiradoumi, but it’s pretty rare for a Komusubi with a 7-8 record to drop below M1. Given my choice of WTK for K1w, I’ve gone with Shodai-Oho-Hiradoumi, but my confidence here isn’t high.
M3e-M4e
The three contenders here are M2e Atamifuji (7-8), S1e Abi (5-10), and M7w Churanoumi (10-5). I’ve listed them in the order of my guess, on the grounds that Atamifuji shouldn’t be over-demoted and a dropping Sekiwake should get a bit of leniency, but Churanoumi actually has the best rank-record combination and could go ahead of one or both of them.
M14-M17
Usually, Juryo promotions don’t go ahead of incumbents with winning records, but I think the two-win difference between the last guy in Makuuchi, M17e Nishikifuji (8-7), and the top guy in Juryo, J1e Chiyoshoma (10-5), will be enough to overcome this. After that decision, M14w Onokatsu (7-8) and Nishikifuji slot in naturally at M14w and M15e, followed by the other two obvious promotions from Juryo, Tokihayate and Shishi, at M15w and M16e. That still leaves us with three slots to fill (Takakeisho’s retirement shrinks the san’yaku, leading to the return of M17w). The candidates here are three Makuuchi rikishi with records that would usually mean demotion—M12e Bushozan (4-11), M12w Kinbozan (4-11), and M16w Kitanowaka (6-9)—and two Juryo rikishi with records that are right at or just below the promotion line—J11w Takerufuji (13-2) and J8e Asakoryu (11-4). I’ll be very surprised if Takerufuji doesn’t come up, though whether he trades places with Kitanowaka or Kinbozan is a coin flip. I’ve actually opted to drop both and bring up Asakoryu, but again, I am far from confident.
Other smaller question marks: Roga/Gonoyama, Takayasu/Ichiyamamoto, Tamawashi/Meisei, Hokutofuji/Sadanoumi. And of course, count on the banzuke committee to make some completely unanticipated decisions that’ll leave us scratching our heads.
The full guess is below. Let me know what you think in the comments!
Previous parts of this series touched on Why Go, Where We Would Stay, and our visit to Ekoin Temple. In this post, I am going to share my experience of going to a Jungyo event for the first time intersperced with some news about the current Aki 2024 tour.
This October is jammed with dates as the troupe snake their way toward Fukuoka. They start in Adachi, Tokyo and end in Kurashiki just as the banzuke comes out. Terunofuji is participating and doing his dohyo-iri but he is not fighting in the bouts. Oho, Tamawashi, Wakatakakage, and Atamifuji are kyujo. We are watching Oho’s condition, in particular, as he recovers from surgery from that eye injury.
Yesterday, they were in Ashikaga and the local NHK folks shared some great video of the event, particularly the Shokkiri and Jinku routines.
The offical Sumo Kyokai website is very helpful to explain Jungyo. Here, they explain what a day is like, in English. They also have a page that shows the schedule in English.
I must say, Herouth’s article about this topic is gold. Reading through it is an amazing blast from the past. Hoshoryu in Sandanme. Terutsuyoshi. Aminishiki. Goeido. Ryunosuke is 21 years old now! Required reading. If you hadn’t found it on the website, check the menu near the top of the site and hover over the “Jungyo Trail.” This Introduction to the Jungyo article is there. I’ve tried to put other “must read” articles up there, like the mawashi ‘splainer and Josh’s various interviews with sumo luminaries.
For those who like the Cliff’s Notes versions, Jungyo means “Tour”. Musicians do it, authors do it, politicians do it and apparently sumo wrestlers do it. Why? This industry survives on fan support and many fans live in areas that do not have easy access to the main tournaments. Tours generate ticket sales and merchandise sales and other fan support.
Yes, there have even been international tours to France, Los Angeles, Hawaii, etc. Japanese sumo fans also suffer from the same issues as Taylor Swift and Oasis fans: not enough seats available for tournament dates. Tours provide more opportunities for fans to see their favorite wrestlers, especially up-close.
Getting Tickets
We knew that we wanted to get tickets and we also knew we needed to get them early. Unfortunately, we do not live in Japan. Why is that a problem, you ask? Can’t you just buy tickets online? One of the more frustrating aspects of purchasing tickets overseas is that if you use Ticket Pia or other official ticket sources, you have to have a phone number in Japan. Do you have a phone number in Japan? I don’t, either. My brother-in-law does, however. So, he bought two tickets for us and we were all set!
This is why sites like BuySumoTickets exist. And it’s why I went through my little experiment with Ticket Pia but will be getting tickets from BuySumoTickets in the future. I’ve been to a few tournaments before and we generally would get tickets through ochaya but those are pretty darned expensive and it’s a bit of a hassle because we always have to go through one of our intermediaries “in-country”, like my 80-year-old mother-in-law.
When we got to Japan, we met up with my in-laws for lunch and then went to hang out at one of their condos. Their condo happens to be just two blocks from Arashio-beya, so of course they took me over to check it out. When I got back, my wife’s other brother gave me the jungyo tickets and I put them in a white bag full of souvenirs and we eventually went back to the hotel.
Fast-forward a few days and it’s the Day before Jungyo. My wife wakes up and asks, “where are the tickets?” I say, “didn’t you see them in the white bag?” “Yes, I took them out because I gave that white bag to my friend the other day.” A bit of frantic searching later and it became clear the tickets were not in our hotel room. Shhhhhh*t. So, we retrace steps, do more frantic searching…nothing. The morning of we ended up running down to the 7-Eleven and buying tickets from the machine there. Thankfully there were still some tickets available. And then I set off for Tachikawa.
Why am I telling you this? If you buy tickets through any vendor, they’re usually physical tickets. This holds true for Jungyo and for regular tournament dates. When you pick them up, HOLD ON TO THEM. If you lose them, you’re S.O.L. You will not be able to get into the venue, no matter how much you bitch at whichever oyakata is taking tickets at the ticket counter. I’ve heard that the Kyokai is starting to use QR-codes for tickets and that is probably a good thing and will hopefully eliminate some headaches. But I’m sure there will be physical tickets for as long as there are physical chestnuts buried in the dohyo.
The Venue
Tachikawa was a good hour from central Tokyo and the Tachihi Arena lies along the Tachikawa monorail line. The important thing is to get there early in the morning to watch the wrestlers spar and do butsukari-keiko. I was late and in a hurry to make it for the “start” of the basho, so I went straight to Tachikawa and straight to the Arena.
You can tell sumo is in town by the banners in front of the building and the streams of people heading inside. When you get inside, there are booths for food, drink, and merch. Being late, I headed straight for my seat. I did not want to miss anything on the dohyo.
(BIG mistake.)
The Action
The lower division guys go first and then the sekitori. Unless your name is Hiradoumi, much of the action here does not take place at full strength. These are exhibition bouts and while there might be a little kensho, there are no macarons on the line here. So, fans go there more for the engagement and less for the action. I have a picture of some of the “improvised” kensho banners but most of the kensho banners were actually legit. Anyway, back to the task at hand…
I am saying, “Learn from my mistakes.” Do not get there around lunch time. Get there early, visit the souvenir stands and pick up merch. The Waka brothers were manning the till! Wander around and do not be too shy to ask for pictures with your favorite wrestler. If you can get good seats, get good seats downstairs. You will have more chances to engage with wrestlers if you have better seats.
While at a sumo tournament, I would recommend getting to your seat early and watching as much action as you can. But at these tour events, do the opposite. I would catch the shokkiri and jinku because those are things that you will not see at any of the main tournaments. Maybe watch your favorite wrestler if he is paired up with a great rival…but even then, expect an easy-going bout. Guys are not here to hurt each other*.
In this Tweet from the current Jungyo tour, both Kirishima and Daieisho engage in some hijinx by squishing Hoshoryu, sitting ringside. Hoshoryu is not in sandanme anymore, he is Ozeki. (If you read Herouth’s piece, which I linked to above, he was down in Sandanme at the time.) Now, Kirishima was an Ozeki earlier this year and both he and Daieisho likely have eyes on the rank as the latter rejoins the Sekiwake ranks. Kirishima is probably pretty close to earning re-promotion.
Lessons Learned
It was not until the last few bouts that I thought to get up and walk to where all of the wrestlers were heading when they finished their bouts. It was there that I got as close to any of my favorite wrestlers as I would for almost the entire trip (except for meeting Shohozan and being three feet from Endo as he cycled away from keiko). I’ve got great pics of Hiradoumi, Atamifuji, Daieisho (chatting up a few ladies), Abi, Kotozakura, Onosato, Kenta, Narimasa, ex-Shonosuke, and more. But I missed Shodai!
I am the “no regerts” poster-child.
That said, it was a great event. I wish I had a seat close to the dohyo and I wish I had ventured around more. But I am very glad I went and I will do it again when I have a chance. The shokkiri was fun but I was most impressed with the jinku. The wrestlers who were a part of that group had great voices. The other fans at the venue were very nice and enjoyed chatting about sumo and their favorite wrestlers. Some were very new to sumo and others were long-time super fans, and there was certainly a foreign fan presence. It was a great mix and a nice way to meet other fans.
