Yokozuna (横綱)

Kotoeko Retirement Ceremony

Andy Retirement, Yokozuna (横綱)

On Saturday, the Kokugikan hosted the retirement ceremony of Kotoeko as he shifts to becoming Oguruma-oyakata. Kotoeko always occupied a special place in my mind as a sumo fan. It’s no mean feat to come from the great Sadogatake beya and establish yourself as a solid member of the rank and file in the top division at roughly 5 foot 10, 260 lbs. After all, this was the same stable which gave us the 400 lb gaburi-yotsu master, Kotoshogiku.

Kotoeko’s success came when the sport and the division seemed to get bigger and bigger, heavier and heavier. I feel his success portended a surge of smaller tacticians. Now, there seems to be a real surge in dynamic, solid grapplers like him. So, I am glad that Kotoeko has traded in his trademark lilac shimekomi for one of those fancy new Uniqlo navy jackets of the Kyokai oyakata to welcome a new crop of talented grapplers.

Speaking of lilac, Mrs. Oguruma wore it very well with her beautiful kimono.

Kotoeko’s retirement event included the usual hanazumo as well as hair-dressing, where Kotoshoho and Kotoeiho got to model together.

This event also featured Hyuga Hyottoko dancing which is particularly popular from Miyazaki Prefecture’s Hyuga Hyottoko Summer Festival. I am sure you’ve seen the masks of the dude with the puckered lips and the mug only a mother could love, as well as the cats’ face, okame, etc.

Whatever its origin, it looks like the face of a dude who got kneed in the nuts when he tried to steal a kiss from his apparently unrequited sweetheart. Come to think of it, I’ve got a few of these. Because of course I do. Right next to my pair of geta and fundoshi.

Andy knows what gets the ladies hot.

Back to the sumo. Kotoeko’s retirement ceremony was auspicious because it was the first public performance of Onosato’s Yokozuna dohyo-iri at the Kokugikan. Interestingly, there was a bit of a switch here. Takayasu was the sword-bearer but for dew-sweeper, we have Takanosho! I wonder if that’s a sign that Ryuden has been demoted to Juryo. There’s surely a whole host of guys from the Ichimon who would be eligible. Congratulations, Takanosho.

Are we really going to see a double Yokozuna promotion?

bradk promotion, Yokozuna (横綱)

On top of all the normal excitement for the first basho of the year, Hatsu 2025 brings the added anticipation of a potential double Yokozuna promotion. With Kotozakura and Hoshoryu both on rope runs, how likely are we to see two new Yokozuna in March?

Taken individually, both men are in range of “normal” pre-Yokozuna careers. Since 1958, wrestlers promoted to Yokozuna have needed an average of 32 tournaments in makuuchi to achieve the rank. Kotozakura is in his 28th tournament and Hoshoryu is only one behind at 27. Both rikishi are in the average range of others promoted to Yokozuna.

ShikonaBasho to Promotion
Taiho11
Futahaguro12
Asashoryu13
Kitanoumi15
Wajima15
Akebono15
Kashiwado19
Hakuho19
Chiyonofuji22
Hokutoumi23
Tochinoumi23
Sadanoyama25
Takanohana26
Wakanohana (56)27
Onokuni28
Wakanohana (45)31
Terunofuji31
Asashio35
Tamanoumi36
Kitanofuji37
Takanosato43
Kakuryu44
Asahifuji45
Musashimaru46
Harumafuji47
Wakanohana (66)47
Kotozakura57
Mienoumi60
Kisenosato73

In the case of Hoshoryu, a promotion would be somewhat surprising only because of how precisely “on average” he has been. As seen in the table below, The Nephew has been right on pace with the number of tournaments spent at every level. A top performance and promotion in January would be 4 tournaments early!

 

Tournaments at rank

 OzekiSekiwakeKomusubiMaegashiraTotal
Average*13.35.93.29.431.9
Kotozakura6341528
Hoshoryu963927
  • 1958-Present

If either Kotozakura or Hoshoryu earn promotion, it would be unremarkable. But what about both? While it has only happened in 1961 and 1970, the two have something in their favor. In both previous double-promotions, the rikishi were on similar career arcs to one another. In January 1970, Tamanoumi was promoted after his 36th Makuuchi tournament. Kitanofuji joined him after his 37th tournament. Similarly, in September 1961, Taiho was promoted after only his 11th tournament. While Kashiwado got the rope after his 19th basho. The 8 basho gap seems significant; but only 8 men have achieved the rank of Yokozuna in under 20 tournaments: so they are in a similar grouping. The 28 tournaments for Kotozakura and 27 for Hoshoryu fit the pattern of rikishi at similar stages in their career enjoying simultaneous promotion.

In the modern area, there has been one joint promotion of fast risers in 1961 and one joint promotion of slightly slower than average champions in 1970. Perhaps we are due for a pair of slightly faster than average ascenders in 2025. But it seems highly unlikely.

In a fitting twist, the sumo spirits seem to have other pairs ready to ruin the party. At the top Terunofuji is set to appear and reassert his dominance. An even greater threat is probably Onosato. Right below the Ozeki, the Waka- brothers will be looking to continue their rise. And further down still, Takerufuji and Hakuoho seem set to rack up early wins against overmatched opponents in hopes of playing late spoilers.

January 12th can’t get here soon enough!

The Yokozuna Sweepstakes

Thomas Griffin Yokozuna (横綱)

The changing of the sumo guard is now in full swing. How rude, you say! Terunofuji is still a potent technician in the ring and a yusho threat every time he steps on the dohyo. In fact, over his yokozuna tenure (so far) he has an almost 50% yusho win rate if he shows up on day 1 of the basho, but he is also at a stage in his career where he misses more tournaments than he makes, and the end draws nearer every day. Now, with the retirement in September of his main rival, Takakeisho, who was himself a several-time candidate for the white rope, I think it’s fair that we be allowed to turn our attentions to the next generation and have some fun speculating over the big question on everyone’s minds:

Who is next in line for sumo’s throne?

A few fun facts before we get started. Yokozuna promotions are a regular occurrence in sumo, but they are not frequent. There have only been 73 in the last 275 years, which is an average of 1 yokozuna every 3.77 years. Spoken another way, that’s a new yokozuna every 23ish basho.

Recent history seems to maintain this trend. If we only consider the last 10 yokozuna promotions (starting with the elevation of the late, great Akebono in March 1993), then we see the average gap between yokozuna promotions shrink only marginally, to 3.098 years, or just over 18 basho. The shortest gap during that time was exactly one year, between the promotions of Wakanohana and Musashimaru. The longest gap was between Hakuho and Harumafuji, a span of 5 years and 4 months, or 32 basho(!), which I believe can be easily explained by Hakuho’s (and until 2010, Asashoryu’s) utter dominance during that period.

So where does that leave us? Looking at the numbers, it would appear we are due, as it has now been just over 3 years since Terunofuji’s promotion. Who will next rise to claim the title? There are several contenders, some more likely than others, and I have separated them into 3 categories: front runners, dark horses, and prospects.

Front runners:

Onosato, Kotozakura, Hoshoryu

It should come as no surprise that the most promising candidates are our three current ozeki. They are all still young, and Aki’s lackluster performances notwithstanding, appear increasingly strong in their sumo. Onosato’s rise to ozeki is the fastest in professional history, and with 2 yusho already in 5 top division basho he is my runaway favorite, but I would not sleep on his ozeki rivals either. Both Kotozakura and Hoshoryu have jun-yusho in the last year, and neither have logged a losing record / gone kadoban since attaining their ozeki rank. Not every yokozuna breezes through ozeki (Harumafuji took 22 basho to earn the rope; Musashimaru took 32).

I’d say all three current ozeki have the makings of a grand champion—it is simply down to them to execute. With his size, strength, and overwhelming style, Onosato seems not a question of “if” but “when.” Kotozakura reminds me of Kisenosato with his disciplined, patient sumo—let’s hope he doesn’t also share the former yokozuna’s yusho woes. Hoshoryu, meanwhile, has always held an athleticism edge over his foes, beating them to the punch and pulling off spectacular counters, but now he seems to be bulking to match their size. Let’s hope his gains don’t come at the expense of his agility and finesse.

Dark horses:

Kirishima, Wakatakakage

Hear me out. Yes, both men are closer to age 30 than the front runners, and neither are currently ozeki due to unfortunate injuries—Wakatakakage’s coming before he could earn promotion and Kirishima’s, sadly, coming just after his ozeki rise.

BUT, both men, when healthy, are strong, technical, and tenacious. Both are former yusho winners (Kirishima won two just last year, don’t forget), and both had identical 12-3 records in this most recent Aki basho. To me this signals potential, even if the likelihood is not high. Both would have to earn (or re-earn) promotion to ozeki first, and then elevate their wrestling further while fending off a host of talented rivals, but crazier things have happened (see: Terunofuji’s career). If both men can preserve their good health long enough to sustain the runs they started in September, their shot at ozeki—and subsequently yokozuna—will be better than most.

Prospects:

Takerufuji, Atamifuji, Hakuoho

There are dozens of young rikishi who may unexpectedly become the next world beater in sumo, but Leonid won’t lend me his banzuke crystal ball, so there’s no point in making wild guesses.

Aw heck, let’s do it anyway. There are a trio of rikishi who, in my opinion, pass “the smell test” of a sumo star in the making, and they are debutant yusho winner Takerufuji, his baby-faced teammate Atamifuji, and the Boss’s protégé, Hakuoho.

Because he’s already held the Emperor’s Cup, it makes sense to me to start with Takerufuji, even though he’s (at the time of this writing) the lowest ranked of the three. The same age as Hoshoryu, he would likely already be making his own run at ozeki if not for that fateful ankle injury, but the good news is that the recovery process seems not to have diminished him whatsoever. His official comeback in Aki took the form of a dominant Juryo yusho, and if he’s not back in Makuuchi next basho, I fear for the second tier. He looks that strong, the proverbial unstoppable force who has yet to meet the immovable object, and unless another injury sidelines him, I think his bullet train oshi style could carry him all the way to sumo’s peak.

His teammate, Atamifuji, has had a quieter—yet more steady—rise, but he’s already got a pair of jun-yusho to his name and is now threatening for sanyaku promotion at the tender age of 22. Don’t let the baby face or the goofy pre-bout dance routine fool you. He’s BIG, he’s strong, and he’s exceptionally patient in his sumo for one so young. I fully expect Atami to threaten for ozeki promotion within the next two years, and from there, who knows his ceiling? Not I.

Lastly, I’d like to speak briefly on Hakuoho, the pride of (temporarily disbanded) Miyagino stable. The best sumo wrestler to ever do it thinks this kid’s got what it takes, so who am I to gainsay him? The only thing standing in this young man’s way is injuries, and to see all the tape on him, you can’t help but feel his hurt. Hakuoho’s initial rise into the salaried ranks was nothing short of impressive, with displays of technical polish you just don’t see in rikishi that young, and if he can get healthy, I fully expect to see him reassert that prowess against the top division again.

There are of course others with promise—Hiradoumi and Oho come to mind, as well as a slew of lower division youngsters who appear to have a future in the top division—but we haven’t the time for them all. I’m sure many will also protest the exclusion of the likes of Wakamotoharu and Daieisho, but in my opinion both are too old and too limited to make a legitimate run at ozeki, let alone yokozuna. As I said up above, this is my smell test and nothing more. Feel free to tell me in the comments who’s on your olfactory radar, and if 5 years down the road you happen to be right, save this post and rub my nose in it.

Kirishima and the Sliding Doors Moment

Josh K Kirishima, Kotonowaka, Terunofuji (照ノ富士), Tobizaru, Yokozuna (横綱)

Let’s just hope he doesn’t start selling new age accessories on his online shop

Well, that was an unbelievable basho, in a lot of ways. It had everything, including some incredible individual moments and performances. It had the best guys in the sport putting up the biggest wins and the best results, it had both the predictable and the unpredictable. Probably the only real regrettable things about the basho were that Asanoyama and (predictably) Takayasu’s fitness couldn’t sustain themselves for 15 days. Asanoyama is otherwise in the yusho race or at least putting up a score that vaults him to the top of the rank-and-file.

Two of my other top moments were scenes you could just telegraph: Terunofuji reading Onosho’s tachiai perfectly to showcase his ability to win with the minimum of hit points to his beleaguered physique, and Hoshoryu’s perfect read of Takanosho’s in-and-under-the-arms tachiai into what has become his signature throw. Kirishima of course was involved in two of the most significant bouts of the tournament, against the other top dogs.

Sumo has a lot of these “Sliding Doors” moments, incredible victories that signal a turn in results or that have an impact on the banzuke or a rikishi’s career well into the future. Moments that could have well gone another way. These incidents are normally forgotten. In sumo, it’s not really about what almost happened, it either happened or it didn’t. You get no points for “almost.”

Heading into senshuraku, there was an altogether other set of events that could have occurred and profoundly altered the future of sumo in 2024 (and beyond) as we know it. But neither match broke in the direction that was required: Kotonowaka knocked off a stubborn Tobizaru to deal the flying monkey his makekoshi, clinching Kotonowaka his Ozeki promotion and – at least – a trip to the yusho playoff. Terunofuji, of course, won against the Ozeki Kirishima in dominant fashion to clinch his own playoff spot.

Kirishima entered the final day one off the pace, at 11-3. A win and a 12-3 record would not ordinarily be the kind of result that would set the weavers in motion, but had these results broken the other way, it would have landed him in a three way yusho playoff and with the chance to seal a second consecutive yusho (and third overall) which would have certainly established an overwhelming claim to promote him to the sport’s highest rank.

After all, Terunofuji entered this basho following a run of seven kyujo from his previous eight tournaments, and with increasing speculation as to his long term future in the sport. Most observers – including the NHK Sumo Preview team – didn’t seem to place much faith in him still being in the sport at year’s end, and with Terunofuji’s shisho set to step down in 2025 (upon reaching mandatory retirement age, presumably leaving the heya in the Yokozuna’s care after Ajigawa-beya’s recent branch-out), it is likely that there will be a need for a new Yokozuna sooner than later. It’s possible that a Kirishima defeat of the Yokozuna and his presence in a playoff (win or lose, but probably contingent on a win) might have been enough to see the Michinoku-beya man promoted and the long term future of the rank secured.

However, for that to have happened, Kirishima would also have needed Tobizaru to have secured kachi-koshi against Kotonowaka. While the feisty underdog put forward a spirited challenge, the Sadogatake man-mountain was simply immovable.

In the end, of course, Kirishima’s 11-4 restarts his challenge. But, it certainly is the best performance we’ve seen from a yusho-winning Ozeki under the circumstances since Terunofuji’s own yokozuna promotion. It is difficult to say that Kirishima didn’t take the challenge all the way to the death, although he is doubtlessly counting the cost of losses to Midorifuji and Tobizaru, which in the end are the reason why his promotion challenge was so cruelly undermined.

A reversal of Tobizaru’s fortunes wouldn’t have done much for his own standing in Osaka, but Kotonowaka would have been sitting on a less attractive 32 wins from the previous three basho. While there is no de facto standard for Ozeki promotion, it can be argued that the Kyokai might have asked for another strong tournament in light of the fact he’d only need to upgrade on the 9 wins in the tournament at the beginning of the run. As is, the 9-11-13 nature of improvement, all at the Sekiwake rank, and taking the Yokozuna literally to the edge (in a playoff that was in fact closer than it might have looked), was enough to get the job done.

While Kotonowaka will fight at least one more basho under the ring name of his father and shisho (before presumably succeeding to the vaunted name of his grandfather Kotozakura), the future propects of another man carrying the weight of his shisho’s shikona are less certain. Kirishima will again enter the Haru basho as one of the favourites, but now on level standing with three other Ozeki who will all have hopes of fulfilling the criteria to become the 74th Yokozuna this year.

The upcoming Haru basho will be the final basho to take place with the current iteration of Michinoku beya intact, and Kirishima will not have be able to make the step up to the sumo’s ultimate rank before his stablemaster reaches retirement age: had the fates aligned differently, Kirishima II would have reached Yokozuna in Kirishima I’s final basho as head of Michinoku beya. If the Ozeki ever does make it, it will be under yet-to-be determined leadership at a different heya (presumably, one of the five other heya within the ichimon) at some point in the future.

Looking forward, Takakeisho will be looking for a repeat of his fourth yusho, which also took place in a basho he entered kadoban following a kyujo withdrawal from the previous tournament. Hoshoryu will have correctly decided that his late injury withdrawal from Hatsu will give him better chance to fully recover and challenge for honours in March. And Kotonowaka will want to prove worthy of the Kotozakura name. It will not be easy for Kirishima.

Going forward, we won’t think about another future that might have been possible. Takakeisho himself has had multiple near-misses over the years, but going into senshuraku a different future was very much in play. Instead, Kirishima’s 11-4 record is all that, more likely that not, will barely be remembered about this tournament. What might have been won’t matter when the next basho begins. This was a basho where Kotonowaka punched his ticket to the big time and Terunofuji let us all know he was still the man to beat. Everything else is just a subtext for those of us desperately seeking narrative in this mad world of sumo. And for that, let’s hope the next affair at the EDION Arena can match the outstanding tournament just gone.