Haru Day 9 Preview

The basho comes roaring out of the middle weekend with the yusho contest still anyone’s to take – as long as someone can manage to get dirt on Hakuho. Tachiai’s own lksumo spells it out as no one else can in this post: Haru Storylines, Day 8, so feel free to take a look.

Entering the second week, the named ranks will begin to fight each other, and the Maegashira will compete to see who gets the coveted 8th win, and who is headed lower in May. Only one hapless rikishi (Shodai) already holds his 8th loss, but Kaisei, Nishikigi, Tochiozan and Ikioi are at 7 losses. None of them are at serious risk of being dropped to Juryo [though I wouldn’t be too sure about Ikioi –lksumo]. But there are some fans (myself) who are dying to see if the final week will bring us a match between old rivals Kotoshogiku and Toyonoshima. With Toyonoshima likely headed back to Juryo, it’s pretty much now or never.

But with the 9th day, its finally time to take a serious look at the Haru leaderboard!

Haru Leaderboard
Leader
: Hakuho
Chasers: Kakuryu, Takayasu, Goeido, Ichinojo, Aoiyama
Hunt Group: Takakeisho, Kotoshogiku, Ryuden, Kotoeko

7 Matches Remain

What We Are Watching Day 9

Shimanoumi vs Yutakayama – The Juryo yusho leader comes to Makuuchi for day 9 to face a poor injured fellow who looks like he may be vacating a Maegashira slot for him in May. This is their first ever match.

Chiyoshoma vs Yoshikaze – Both are at 5-3, both are highly mobile and will happily put any number of sumo moves into play over the course of a single match. I am sure Yoshikaze is ready for a Chiyoshoma henka attempt.

Ryuden vs Ishiura – I am going to go with the notion that Ryuden will get a chance to get a mawashi grip on Ishiura, and we will see some Ishiura chest to chest, or chest to forehead sumo.

Terutsuyoshi vs Yago – Both are at an appalling 2-6, with Terutsuyoshi in real danger of vacating his Maegashira rank in May. They are evenly matched during their history in the lower ranks, and both of them have been underperforming their trend lines for Haru.

Shohozan vs Kagayaki – Kagayaki has now won 4 in a row, and seems to have overcome his ring rust. Unfortunately for his day 9 match, his preference for an oshi-zumo match will play straight into Shohozan’s strengths. Does Kagayaki go for the mawashi, or just take a pounding from the “big guns”?

Aoiyama vs Ikioi – 7-1 Aoiyama faces 1-7 Ikioi in someone’s twisted idea of a mathematical joke. Ikioi is in no condition to be no the dohyo, let alone to face a wrecking machine like Aoiyama.

Kotoshogiku vs Abi – A joke so nice, they did it twice! 6-2 Kotoshogiku will take on 2-6 Abi. We know Abi will go for a double arm thrust to the neck and shoulders, and Kotoshogiku will try to close in and take him for a ride on the hug-n-chug train.

Asanoyama vs Onosho – Yotsu-zumo Asanoyama vs Oshi-zumo Onosho. Both of them are known to get off balance a bit at times, so we will see whose sumo sets the tone of this clash of styles.

Daieisho vs Nishikigi – Nishikigi needs to “win out” to not end up with a make-koshi for March, and the next stop on that grind is Daieisho, who has shown excellent sumo far superior to his middling 4-4 record. Nishikigi needs a right hand grip early to take control of this match and set the tone.

Kaisei vs Hokutofuji – Kaisei is also up against the make-koshi wall, and his match with Hokutofuji will be a contrast of the Komusubi going for a fierce nodowa, and Kaisei looking to pin him down with a mawashi grip.

Takakeisho vs Chiyotairyu – This one is all about balance, as Takakeisho will need to endure Chiyotairyu’s canon ball tachiai followed by a pull down gambit. If he clears those, the modifications to his wave-action tsuppari will get full play, and we may see Chiyotairyu in the zabuton.

Ichinojo vs Goeido – Ichinojo is precisely the kind of massive, immobile rikishi that can frustrate Goeido and lead him to his “bad” sumo habits, such as pulling attempts and moving backward. This will be a big tests to see if Goeido can stay in the yusho race. Winner is kachi-koshi.

Takayasu vs Tamawashi – these two used to be dependable East / West Sekiwake for a time, but Takayasu move up to Ozeki, leaving Tamawashi behind. The brutal oshi-style of Tamawashi might provoke the Ozeki to bring his shoulder blast back, and in this case it’s entirely warranted.

Tochinoshin vs Shodai – Believe it or not, the record favors Shodai on this match. He could certainly use the win to boost his fighting spirit, and the Ozeki is still an injured mess.

Tochiozan vs Kakuryu – An evenly split 21-23 career record for these two, and Tochiozan has a lot of drive given the oddball loss to Hakuho day 8. Tochiozan is good at limiting his opponents’ options, and that is a bane for Kakuryu. This could be a good match indeed.

Hakuho vs Mitakeumi – Mitakeumi is hurt, but fighting on. Can he rally in his match against “The Boss” on day 9? Right now Hakuho looks almost unbeatable, and usually does until someone can pierce his illusion of invulnerability.

Haru Day 9 – Ones To Watch

In day 8 action, the Makushita yusho race was locked in as a number of strong rikishi managed to join Naya in the 4-0 column, including fellow one to watch Ichiyamamoto, and former Sekitori mainstay Chiyootori. With only 7 rikishi with perfect records, the field will narrow quickly, and the yusho winner may not end the basho with a perfect record. Late in the Makushita fight roster, Hoshoryu dropped his 3rd match of the basho, and has clearly hit a level of competition that presents a real and formidable challenge to his growing sumo skill.

Day 9 Matches

Ichiyamamoto vs Churanoumi – Let the yusho elimination begin! Ichiyamamoto will take on phenom (and former Juryo man) Churanoumi, who has both a Jonidan and Sandanme yusho to his name from 2016. Churanoumi Has been ranked in the top 10 of Makushita or above since Osaka last year, so Ichiyamamoto has a tough day’s work in front of him.

Midorifuji vs Bushozan – A 2-2 bracket match, Midorifuji wukk face Fujishima heya’s Bushozan, who is looking to bounce back from a make-koshi in January.

Naya vs Tsurubayashi – The second match of our “ones to watch” in the yusho bracket, young Naya is facing off against higher ranked rikishi in an effort to contest for the division title. Ms38 ranked Tsurubayashi is a rough equal for Naya in terms of size and weight, but the 25 year old rikishi Kise heya is a 40 tournament Makushita veteran, and will bring a wealth of experience to the dohyo.

Torakio vs Dairaido – Torakio is still hunting for his first win. Will he score it against former Juryo wrestler Takadagawa? It’s going to be a tough day for the Naruto heya rikishi.

Terunofuji vs Daiyusho – Jonidan yusho race match, former Ozeki Terunofuji looks a little better with each match, and his opponent on day 9 has only been in sumo since Osaka of last year. The prospect of fighting an increasingly genki former Ozeki probably fills young Daiyusho (he’s only 16…) with dread.

Hattorizakura vs Higohikari – I am going to watch this match just in case Higohikari falls down.

Haru Storylines, Day 8

With seven days of action left in the Spring basho, much is still to be decided, but we can begin to see the outlines of the stories that will define this tournament. Here’s what we’ll be following over the final days.

Who will take the yusho?

This is the one of the best races we’ve had on nakabi in recent times. After his amazing escape against Tochiozan today, Yokozuna Hakuho (8-0) is the sole undefeated leader. This is the 47th time that the Boss has clinched his kachi-koshi on Day 8, by far the most in history (in second place is the great Chiyonofuji with 25).

The one-off-the-pace chase group is deep and strong. It includes the other Yokozuna, Kakuryu, two Ozeki—Takayasu and Goeido—and two strong hiramaku challengers, Ichinojo and Aoiyama. And “don’t count me out” Sekiwake Takakeisho is in the hunt at 6-2. With all the top-rankers still to face each other, we could be in for an exciting finish.

Will Tochinoshin remain an Ozeki?

Everyone’s favorite Georgian needs 8 wins to clear kadoban status and retain his rank. His 5th victory today, against previously unbeaten Ichinojo, looms large (pun intended), as he now needs to find only 3 wins on a tough second-week fight card. Tomorrow, Tochinoshin faces the hapless and winless Shodai, who surprisingly holds a slight career edge (6-5 on the dohyo) against the Ozeki. After that, the schedule only gets tougher, with two Sekiwake, two Ozeki, and two Yokozuna. Encouragingly for his many fans, Tochinoshin has begun to once again display the strength of bear that has the strength of two one-and-a-half bears in recent days.

Will we see anyone promoted to Ozeki?

We had two potential Ozeki runs at the start of the basho. Takakeisho, after being denied promotion last time despite going 9-6, 13-2, 11-4 to accumulate the customary 33 wins over 3 basho, was seeking a double-digit victory total to seal the deal. Sekiwake Tamawashi, the Hatsu yusho winner, himself had two-basho records of 9-6 and 13-2, and needed a minimum of 11 wins to be considered for a late-career promotion. How is the duo faring in their quests?

Well, Takakeisho’s run is going strong. He banked 6 wins from the first 8 bouts, and likely only needs to go 4-3 the rest of the way to ascend to sumo’s second-highest rank. Of course, he has yet to face any of the top 5 men on the banzuke, so it won’t be a cake-walk, but if he can put up the numbers, they will perforce include some quality wins.

Tamawashi’s run, on the other hand, is all but over. With a 4-4 record and a similarly tough fight card, he’d need an improbable 7-0 finish for a shot at promotion, and even the 5 or 6 wins that could keep the run alive might be out of reach.

Who will occupy the San’yaku ranks in May?

Of the four current occupants of the lower San’yaku ranks, none is a lock to still be there for Natsu. Takakeisho seems likely to vacate his slot via promotion. Tamawashi needs 4 victories to remain Sekiwake, and 3 to stay in San’yaku. After a strong start, East Komusubi Mitakeumi has stumbled to a 3-5 record and needs to go 5-2 the rest of the way to maintain his rank. The good news is that his schedule will get easier after his encounter with Hakuho tomorrow. West Komusubi Hokutofuji is having the usual rough debut in the upper ranks, with a 2-6 record against the 8 men ranked above him. Can he go 6-1 or better against lower-ranked opponents?

While it’s way to early to know who will be ready to occupy any San’yaku slots that open up, the leading contender at the moment is Ichinojo, who spent the last 5 basho of 2018 in the named ranks. He is followed by Aoiyama, Daieisho, and Chiyotairyu, but there is plenty of time for the current leaders to falter, and for other rikishi in the mix to make a promotion push.

Who will be in Makuuchi in May?

I have not seen any news on the injured Chiyonokuni, but at this point it seems likely that he is not coming back this basho [edit: see the comment from Herouth confirming this], which will result in a fall deep into Juryo. Tachiai wishes him a full and speedy recovery and a swift climb back up the ranks. Those who have left themselves the most work to do if they do not wish to join him in the second division include Yutakayama (M16w, 3-5), who just barely escaped demotion last time, and three of the most recent promotions to the top division: Terutsuyoshi (M14e, 2-6), Daishoho (M16e, 3-5), and Toyonoshima (M14w, 2-6). The schedulers better make that long-awaited Kotoshogiku-Toyonoshima reunion bout happen while they still can.

Meanwhile, down in Juryo, Shimanoumi (J1e, 7-1), who had a legitimate promotion case last time, is making an emphatic case by threatening to run away with a second consecutive yusho. His fellow J1 and promotion snub Chiyomaru is also in good shape at 5-3. And Tachiai favorite Enho seems to have recovered from his ill-fated visit to Makuuchi that resulted in a shoulder injury at the hands of Kotoeko, and has run his victory total to 5 from J2w, keeping him on track for promotion.

Haru Day 8 Highlights

The middle day of the basho brought a welcome change in tone, as some long-suffering upper Maegashira finally got relief from the san’yaku pounding that was their daily lives. In response, we saw some rikishi score their first wins of the basho, and begin their long trek towards a more respectable final tally.

Highlight Matches

Chiyoshoma defeats Tokushoryu – Tokushoryu visits from Juryo, and Chiyoshoma abandons any hopes of forward motion and pulls him down.

Terutsuyoshi defeats Yutakayama – Terutsuyoshi gets his second win of the tournament, and gets Yutakayama moving faster than I have ever seen before. I would guess that Yutakayama is headed back to Juryo.

Kotoeko defeats Tomokaze – Tomokaze seems to have the stronger opening, even batting Kotoeko’s head around a few times for good measure. But while Tomokaze was busy doing all of this, Kotoeko lands a solid grip and takes control. The much larger, stronger Tomokaze gets suprised when Kotoeko “Hulks out” and employs some Kotoshogiku style offense, driving Tomokaze from the ring. Kotoeko is having a really good basho, and if he can keep this form he may be destined for a posting up the banzuke.

Yoshikaze defeats Daishoho – Yoshikaze seems to have turned a corner now, and is once again mustering at least enough power to win matches. Daishoho, for no reason I can think of, decided he was going to try to pull Yoshikaze down. A veteran like Yoshikaze can read your weight shift before you can apply force, Daishoho. Yoshikaze advances strongly into the pull, and wins.

Ryuden defeats Toyonoshima – Toyonoshima continues to struggle in his return to Makuuchi. I really like Ryuden’s tachiai today, and you can see he lands that right hand grip immediately, and turns Toyonoshima to the side. Toyonoshima is never able to square his body, and is left trying anything to establish any offensive sumo.

Shohozan defeats Ishiura – Ishiura has returned to a low, “submarine” tachiai, which can work. But it’s a very narrow range between an advantageous body position, and a venerable one that surrenders any offensive sumo. Today Ishiura was too low, and Shohozan capitalized on his mistake.

Kagayaki defeats Yago – Kagayaki seems to have overcome his ring-rust, and is back to solid fundamentals. Yago seemed to have no answer to Kagayaki’s relentless drive forward, and strong pressure center-mass.

Meisei defeats Ikioi – Go to the hospital, Ikioi, you are too injured for proper sumo.

Aoiyama defeats Sadanoumi – Aoiyama’s sumo is right in his “butter zone” now, and he is sort of unstoppable at this level of the banzuke. A win tomorrow will net him a kachi-koshi.

Okinoumi defeats Kotoshogiku – Okinoumi’s technical library on display again today, as he masterfully shuts down Kotoshogiku’s offensive gambits, and shows his superior balance and footwork. Kotoshogiku did get his hug-n-chug running, but Okinoumi is an old hand at defending against it, and was able to shift the match back in his favor by holding ground against the Kyushu Bulldozer.

Asanoyama defeats Abi – Abi again opens with his typical thrusting attack, and Asanoyama counters by moving closer and grabbing Abi’s mawashi. You can literally see Abi go slack as Asanoyama goes through a series of hip swings that keep Abi dancing to Asanoyama’s tune. Abi, you have a lot of potential, sir – we hope you can diversify.

Takarafuji defeats Onosho – “Ice Man” Takarafuji absorbs Onosho’s powerful opening attack, and focuses on getting himself in position to counterattack. Onosho can be counted on to over-commit, and Takarafuji takes him apart the moment his balance is too far forward. For Onosho backers, remember he just needs 8 wins.

Nishikigi defeats Chiyotairyu – Oh yes! Nishikigi gets his first win, with smart tactics against a pulling Chiyotairyu. When the Kokonoe man goes for the pull down (easy to anticipate), Nishikigi shows superior balance and footwork, and drives the big man out.

Daieisho defeats Myogiryu – Myogiryu has nothing in this match, and Daieisho makes him pay for trying to pull him down.

Kaisei defeats Mitakeumi – Mitakeumi’s kryptonite strikes again, and Kaisei racks up his first win of the basho. A combination of a lot of pent up sumo offense on Kaisei’s part, and that knee injury on Mitakeumi’s part made this fairly one sided, but its good to see Kaisei get a win at last.

Takakeisho defeats Endo – I almost think Takakeisho is getting stronger, more aggressive. I am eager to see his week 2 matches really test him out, with most of the top-rankers now looking to be in good form.

Takayasu defeats Shodai – Ok, now I am starting to feel sorry for Shodai. Somebody shoot me. He has a pride-obliterating 0-8 make-koshi on day 8. Again we see a more “grab” focused Tachiai from Takayasu, and points to Shodai for a solid escape as the Ozeki can’t secure his grip. This moment of “escape” is where Shodai really shines, but Takayasu maintains focus and wins with an oshidashi.

Tochinoshin defeats Ichinojo – Ichinojo picks up his first loss of the basho, as Tochinoshin affirms he can still lift Ichinojo. Tochinoshin sidestepped the tachiai, and landed his left hand “doom grip” at the start. From there it was obvious that he was going to use his “lift and shift”, and he took several swings at that gambit before it finally payed off.

Goeido defeats Tamawashi – When Goeido gets like this, you are in for a rough ride, no matter who you might be. Tamawashi has a strong start, which includes a slap to the face. But while Tamawashi is focusing on Goeido’s head, his hands have found their mark in a mae-mitsu grip, and it’s all over for Tamawashi. Goeido’s little flourish at the end, as if he has taken the trash to the curb, is a nice touch.

Hakuho defeats Tochiozan – I call Hakuho the “Michael Joran of Sumo” for good reason. Like Jordan, Hakuho will at times do things that defy explanation except to chalk it up to overflowing natural ability that is beyond anything a typical human could expect. Tochiozan had him boxed up, labeled and on the loading ramp. But somehow Hakuho used his poor body position (sideways, being pushed out) to form a leverage point and throw Tochiozan via kotenage. I had to watch this several times, Hakuho is probably the greatest rikishi of my lifetime.

Kakuryu defeats Hokutofuji – Hokutofuji opened strong, with a lot of energy in his pushing attack, and it was great to see the Yokozuna’s opening pulling attack defeated by Hokutofuji. But its very tough to outmaneuver Kakuryu, and he is a master at taking whatever you throw at him and waiting for you to make even the smallest mistake.