As we enter the final 3 days of the basho, the lower division rikishi are facing their final match. For a large number of our “Ones to Watch”, their final match will decide if they exit Osaka with a winning or losing record. In Day 12 action, Hoshoryu battled back to even his score at 3-3 with a win over Sakigake (video below). After a rough period with 3 straight losses in a row, Hoshoryu has battled back to even.
Day 13 Matches
Akua vs Chiyosakae – A 3-3 bracket match, the winner will be kachi-koshi, and the loser make-koshi. Chiyosakae is a 39 basho Makushita veteran who will not be an easy match for Akua.
Ichiyamamoto vs Irodori – Ichiyamamoto takes on Makushita 1 East Irodori in a 5-1 bracket match. Irodori is already likely headed to Juryo, but this match might determine if Ichiyamamoto joins him.
Naya vs Churanoumi – The Makushita yusho playoff match, both rikishi are 6-0 heading into their final match. The winner takes the tournament, the loser gets a nice promotion.
Torakio vs Sekizuka – Neither of these rikishi have a single win. For Torakio this has been a total collapse, and I have to wonder what kind of injury has prevented him from executing really any good sumo for the past 2 weeks.
Shoji vs Komakiryu – Both rikishi are already make-koshi (2-4 bracket), so this match determines how stiff of a demotion is coming to them.
Roga vs Kotomiyakura – Split Jonidan / Sandanme playoff, due to the odd number of undefeated rikishi in both divisions. If Roga wins, there will be a follow-on playoff match later in the tournament to decide the Jonidan yusho.
Terunofuji vs Sadatsuyoshi – Jonidan yusho playoff match, this one may or may not determine the yusho given how the Roga match turns out. Sadatsuyoshi is another young rikishi, who has never before had 6 wins in a tournament, so this is a big moment for him. If Terunofuji repeats his day 11 performance, Sadatsuyoshi will get a rough ride.
Hattorizakura vs Hakuyo – The found someone in Jonikuchi for Hattorizakura to lose to! Hakuyo has been kyujo up until now, but returns for his final match against sumo’s most losing Jonidan.
Three days remain in the exciting Haru basho, and with apologies to Bruce, almost everything of consequence has yet to be decided. Here are the storylines to follow in the closing days.
The Yusho Race
Yokozuna Hakuho leads with a 12-0 record. Tomorrow, he faces one of his pursuers, Ozeki Goeido (10-2). His remaining two bouts should be against the other 10-2 Ozeki, Takayasu, and his fellow Yokozuna, Kakuryu (9-3).
M4 Ichinojo (11-1) remained one off the pace with a dominating victory over Asanoyama. His degree of difficulty goes up tomorrow with a bout against Komusubi Mitakeumi (5-7), who leads the head-to-head 6-3. Mitakeumi is a challenging opponent even at less than 100%, although if Ichinojo maintains his current form, he should prevail. I am guessing that we will see Ichinojo matched with Takakeisho on Saturday. The options for his final opponent include Tamawashi, Hokutofuji, and Kotoshogiku.
Only Kakuryu fell out of the 10-2 hunt group today, leaving 4 two-off-the-pace pursuers: Takayasu, Goeido, M7 Aoiyama and M8 Kotoshogiku.
Kadoban Ozeki Tochinoshin
Tochinoshin was unable to record a second career win against Hakuho, and his record stands even at 6-6, leaving him two victories short of the required 8. His remaining three bouts should be against Kakuryu, Tamawashi, and Takakeisho, with the last of these possibly deciding which of them will be Ozeki in May.
Takakeisho’s Ozeki Run
Takakeisho could not avenge his promotion-denying loss to Goeido at Hatsu, and fell to 8-4. Like Tochinoshin, he also needs 2 wins from 4 bouts to be Ozeki in May. He will try to break his two-bout losing streak tomorrow when he faces Takayasu, who leads the head-to-head 6-2. This is likely to be followed by a bout against a rampaging Ichinojo, and, if Takakeisho splits the next two matches, a potential winner-take-all clash with Tochinoshin on senshuraku.
The San’yaku Ranks
Remarkably, with only three days remaining, the number of open San’yaku slots could still mathematically range from zero to four. The zero slot scenario: Takakeisho fails to be promoted, Tochinoshin is demoted, and the duo occupies the two Sekiwake slots. Tamawashi (5-7) goes 2-1 and drops to Komusubi, while Mitakeumi wins out and defends his rank. The four slot scenario: Tochinoshin clears kadoban, Takakeisho becomes Ozeki, Tamawashi loses more than one bout, and Mitakeumi picks up a loss. Of course, in all likelihood, we’ll end up somewhere in between.
Ichinojo has all but locked up the number one spot in the promotion queue; only Aoiyama has a slim chance of catching him. The other best-positioned contenders are Kotoshogiku and Daieisho (M2, 6-6) should the latter be able to reach kachi-koshi.
The Makuuchi <-> Juryo Exchange
This will be interesting, as with three days to go, quite a few Makuuchi rikishi have not done enough to avoid demotion territory, while the list of promotion candidates in Juryo is rather slim. Even with some over-promotions, a number of top-division rikishi may be thanking their lucky stars come banzuke day.
Dropping out of the top division: Chiyonokuni. Taking his spot: Shimanoumi (J1e, 10-2).
Already failed to do enough to avoid demotion, and must hope for a lot of banzuke luck: Yutakayama (M16w, 3-9).
Already right on the bubble, cannot afford any more losses, and might face demotion despite winning out: Toyonoshima (M14w, 3-9), Terutsuyoshi (M14e, 3-9).
Probably need to win out to be safe: Ikioi (M9w, 1-11), Daishoho (M16e, 5-7).
Needs two wins to be safe: Chiyoshoma (M17e, 6-6).
Still need a win for mathematical safety, but may be okay anyway given the long list of those in worse shape: Kotoeko, Ishiura, Sadanoumi, Yago.
Chiyomaru (J1w, 8-4) will be the second Juryo man to go up, and his many fans will be happy to see round boi make a comeback. Enho (J2w, 7-5) took a step closer to promotion, and one more win might do it, given the sorry state of lower Makuuchi. The only other remaining realistic promotion candidate is Tokushoryu (J4w, 7-5), although someone else could get lucky with a record not usually good enough to warrant a jump to the top division.
Its looking increasingly difficult for anyone to catch Yokozuna Hakuho, and the chances are growing that he will capture not only another yusho (his 42nd) but another zehsho yusho as well. Whatever his injuries or problems, Hakuho has fought with overwhelming skill and determination, and he has demonstrated an almost inhuman ability to escape even the most dire situations.
The only rikishi who might have a reasonable challenge to Hakuho is the amazingly genki Ichinojo. The chances that they would face each other in anything other than a playoff are slim to none, and to get to a playoff, someone would have to win over the dai-Yokozuna this tournament. Frankly, I don’t see it happening. Much like other great athletes, any time he chooses to compete, he completely dominates the event, and at times makes even the ridiculously impossible look easy and natural.
There are 3 days left in the basho, and for the most part, everything has been decided short of the yusho. But true to form for this tournament, each day continues to deliver great sumo.
Highlight Matches
Enho defeats Toyonoshima – Enho edges closer to his kachi-koshi, and possibly a bid to enter the top division in May. Hapless Toyonoshima really has sputtered and failed this tournament, after working very hard to return to Makuuchi. As is typical for Enho, he uses combo attacks to keep his opponent from settling to a single defensive strategy.
Tomokaze defeats Ishiura – Ishiura can be frustrating to follow, as he seem to be very easily disrupted from the tachiai, and when that happens his sumo quickly falls apart. Tomokaze did apply quite a vigorous series of jostles to Ishiura’s skull, treating it like a poorly mixed bottle of kombucha.
Kagayaki defeats Kotoeko – Kagayaki scores his 8th win, and finally can claim a kachi-koshi for the first time since May of last year. Kagayaki kept his hands low into the tachiai, and went immediately for a highly effective right hand hazu / armpit pin that kept Kotoeko from generating any offense at all.
Yoshikaze defeats Yutakayama – With his 9th loss, we can pretty much wave goodbye to Yutakayama, the one time leading rikishi of the Freshman group. Since he was injured at Aki 2018, he has not been even 80% genki at any point. Like most sumotori, there is little or no word on what is still wrong with him, but hopefully he can get himself and his sumo together in Juryo and come roaring back. Great to see Yoshikaze with 9 wins after a very weak start.
Meisei defeats Chiyoshoma – Meisei took the initiative at the tachiai, and Chiyoshoma knew he had to do something straight away. Chiyoshoma’s gambit was to attempt a throw, which failed when he could not plant his feet, and Meisei plowed through the pivot point. Meisei gets his 8th win for kachi-koshi.
Daishoho defeats Ikioi – If I had a cat in Ikioi’s kind of condition, I would take it to the vet.
Aoiyama defeats Ryuden – The Aoiyama recipe is still paying off every time, so he keeps using it. Lift them up, slap them down. Ryuden is already kachi-koshi, so this match was all good fun.
Takarafuji defeats Yago – Takarafuji prevented any offense from Yago, except on Takarafuji’s terms. Yago gets his 8th loss, but is safe in the top division unless something terrible happens. Yago is a solid rikishi, but his second Makuuchi tournament has been a real struggle.
Okinoumi defeats Shohozan – Okinoumi’s deep sumo library brings us more fascinating technical action today. He took Shohozan’s primary offensive style off the table and kept himself firmly in control of the match. When this guy is a coach, he is going to produce some excellent future rikishi.
Abi defeats Terutsuyoshi – Added to the slow barge back to Juryo is one Terutsuyoshi, who many hoped would bring his high-energy, small-man sumo to a top division that is increasingly dominated by behemoths. Abi continues to rack wins with his back to the make-koshi wall.
Kotoshogiku defeats Chiyotairyu – Kotoshogiku now has double digit wins. How high can he run up the score? Chiyotairyu has only beaten Kotoshogiku once, and his typical cannonball tachiai has little effect on the Kyushu Bulldozer.
Onosho defeats Sadanoumi – After 5 straight losses, Onosho claims another white star. Onosho got the better of the tachiai, and his overly forward posture was supported by Sadanoumi’s efforts to find his footing.
Ichinojo defeats Asanoyama – When Ichinojo is operating in this form, I am not sure anyone below Sekiwake can do much to slow him down. So the boulder will keep rolling down the hill, crushing anyone who tries to hug him. I am still confident that Asanoyama will get his 8th win this basho.
Daieisho defeats Tochiozan – As Tochiozan ages up, he increasingly has hot and cold streaks. I would chalk this up to his hit or miss health problems, whatever they might be. But for Haru he is clearly quite cold. Daieisho is operating at speed, and today he employed a well executed arcing turn to apply torque to Tochiozan that set up his defeat.
Kaisei defeats Shodai – Kaisei did not take my advice to change format to a dance-off, but he managed to score his second win, even without employing his moon walk skills.
Myogiryu defeats Mitakeumi – This match surprised me a bit, in that Mitakeumi let Myogiryu bracket him. (Bracketing – when used in naval gunfire, means the enemy has your range and can land shells on you at will. In sumo it means that your opponents feet straddle your stance, and you are going down). Myogiryu’s nodowa was especially effective, and Mitakeumi could not really decide on offense or defense, and paid the price.
Hokutofuji defeats Nishikigi – Hokutofuji’s lightning fast “handshake tachiai” left Nishikigi unable to do much other than try to push back against Hokutofuji’s forward pressure. Its great to see that the pounding Hokutofuji took has not dampened his fighting spirit.
Tamawashi defeats Endo – Endo had this one, but failed to maintain close cover on Tamawashi during an osha-match. As a result, Tamawashi’s perilous toes-out pose at the tawara was not his moment of defeat, and he was allowed to resume the fight. Endo now make-koshi.
Goeido defeats Takakeisho – A battle of local favorites, Goeido boxes and ships Takakeisho back to Hyogo in short order with a face full of Osaka clay for a souvenir of his fun on the dohyo today. I am eager for the day 13 match where Goeido brings his genki self up against Hakuho. Just a hunch that this might be the one match that could take Hakuho off the pace.
Hakuho defeats Tochinoshin – Quite the battle, as Tochinoshin lands his deadly left hand outside grip at the tachiai, with Hakuho lower and inside with a mae-mitsu. With his right hand now deep, Hakuho masterfully breaks Tochinoshin’s “Skycrane” setup, and it’s all down hill from there. The Yokozuna patiently sets up, with his feet in excellent position while Tochinoshin continues to work back towards his offensive stance. The end comes when The Boss goes morozashi and advances. Tochinoshin gets Yokozuna Kakuryu on day 13.
Takayasu defeats Kakuryu – Takayasu made it clear he was coming out fast, but Kakuryu took the inside at the tachiai. But again, watch Takayasu’s position on the dohyo and his feet. He’s lower, he owns the center and he has enough of Kakuryu to advance. Kakuryu’s excellent mobility and balance keep him in this fight, but the improved Takayasu sumo is really paying off in this match.
I find myself wondering about day 12. There is a lot on the line, as lksumo so expertly described, but it falls between a crew of rikishi who find themselves on the precipice of a make-koshi, and a narrow group of competitors who are fighting for bigger goals. This basho has been a return to the older days of sumo, where the upper ranks harvested vast numbers of wins from the lesser ranks, and everyone ended each tournament wondering what happened to their sumo.
The big question of the basho – will Hakuho take another yusho? Depends on if someone can put dirt on him between now and Sunday. There are a couple of candidates, but Hakuho seems to be in his genki mode, and short of injury, will be tough to beat.
Enho vs Toyonoshima – Spritely Enho is back for a second visit to Makuuchi, this time it’s against Toyonoshima who is already make-koshi, and possibly headed back to Juryo. After winning his first 3 matches, Enho has faltered a bit, and is now at 6-5, and not making the strongest case for promotion.
Kotoeko vs Kagayaki – A win today would give Kagayaki his first kachi-koshi since Aki 2018. Kagayaki got off to a slow start, but reconnected with his sumo on the middle weekend, and has been operating well.
Yutakayama vs Yoshikaze – In some prior tournaments, Yoshikaze has eased up once he reached kachi-koshi, and that may happen here too. Yutakayama is clearly on the bubble for demotion, pending how the Juryo promotion race plays out. Any win now would increase his chances of staying put and recovering his formerly genki status in the top division.
Chiyoshoma vs Meisei – Chiyoshoma really needs to pick up this win today. At Maegashira 17, he will need a kachi-koshi to remain in Makuuchi for May. Meisei is very much using speed sumo right now, and this suits Chiyoshoma just fine. We may see a series of Chiyoshoma henka, and hopefully Meisei is expecting that.
Aoiyama vs Ryuden – I very much doubt that the day 11 loss to Ichinojo did more than frustrate sumo’s man-mountain Aoiyama. His day 12 match against Ryuden may be a pugilistic pageant of planetary proportions. But Ryuden may also be little more than a straw bag that Aoiyama uses to work out his frustrations and unfulfilled need to hit things.
Okinoumi vs Shohozan – Another veterans match, there seem to be these every day and they are quite a contrast to the sumo of the younger crowd at times. I expect that Okinoumi will once again dig into this bag of sumo technical mastery and find something unique to use against the always flailing arms of Shohozan.
Terutsuyoshi vs Abi – The battle of the hapless under performers! Who will be let down more, the fans of Abi or the fans of Terutsuyoshi? Honest truth, Terutsuyoshi’s sumo lexicon (at least during Honbasho) seems more diverse than Abi’s.
Chiyotairyu vs Kotoshogiku – Chiyotairyu has only beaten Kotoshogiku once in 12 tries. So I am going to guess we may see Chiyotairyu get a train of pelvic thrusts that rock his world. A win today would move Kotoshogiku to double digits, and it increasingly seems that the Kyushu Bulldozer may be back in the joi-jin for May.
Sadanoumi vs Onosho – It seems everyone in sumo knows what to do with Onosho’s balance problems, except Onosho. Today we see if Sadanoumi can hand Onosho his make-koshi to match the one that Sadanoumi already achieved.
Asanoyama vs Ichinojo – Nope!
Daieisho vs Tochiozan – How did Tochiozan end up make-koshi? This basho really has been a rough ride for a number of storied veterans and solid sumo practitioners. Daieisho holds a 4-1 career advantage, so this could end up being loss #10 for Tochiozan.
Kaisei vs Shodai – I will come out and say it, both of you guys should start breakdancing at the tachiai. This is no time for sumo for either one of you, so just give up and admit you’re not going to do any more sumo in Osaka. Bring a boom box, and a big boat of Takoyaki and just hold a dance off at the shikiri-sen. You bet it will annoy the NSK, but.. you know… YOLO.
Mitakeumi vs Myogiryu – Once you bleach the mental image of Kaisei moonwalking out of your mind, I am going to suggest that Mitakeumi will likely give Myogiryu the black star he is missing for his commemorative make-koshi from Osaka. Myogiryu has a lot of speed, but Mitakeumi has been protecting his knees, and not moving as much. This has resulted in him giving busy little guys like Myogiryu fewer chances to actually get an advantage.
Nishikigi vs Hokutofuji – Two more members of team make-koshi in good standing, I would guess that Hokutofuji will attempt a handshake tachiai blasting into a nodowa. Nishikigi typically is no too badly impacted by this stunt, so it may be a waste of Hokutofuji’s time. If Nishikigi can land a mawashi grip, he will likely take the match.
Endo vs Tamawashi – The loser joins team make-koshi, and I am not sure which one might have the edge here. Tamawashi has fought well, but definitely a notch below his January yusho grade of sumo. Chalk it up to the distractions associated with being the cup-holder.
Takakeisho vs Goeido – After all of the preliminaries, we get down to the heart of the matter. Goeido is in very good form, and his contest against Takakeisho will be a fast and brutal affair. I am looking for Goeido to open distance to Takakeisho and not let him get close enough to set up the wave-action attack. We saw day 11 that Hakuho did this with great skill, staying just beyond Takakeisho’s attack range, and forcing the Ozeki aspirant to move each time he wanted to engage. This robbed Takakeisho of a firm stance to power his thrusts, and reduced his effectiveness significantly. I am certain that Goeido saw all of this, and will act accordingly. He might also just blast out of the tachiai and take Takakeisho to his chest, shutting down his pushing attack.
Hakuho vs Tochinoshin – This has two primary possible outcomes. Hakuho dismantles Tochinoshin and puts him on the clay for his 6th loss is the most likely solution. But it’s also possible that Tochinoshin gets a grip on the dai-Yokozuna’s mawashi with that lethal left hand, and Hakuho ends up putting a lot of force into a counter move that could injure him or Tochinoshin.
Takayasu vs Kakuryu – This will be the best test yet of Takayasu’s change in sumo. Kakuryu is a fairly even match in most cases, and I am going to look for Takayasu to try to take the Yokozuna to his chest. Should that happen, Takayasu will need to be patient, and rely on his superior stamina – wear Kakuryu down. Any rapid move to finish the match, no matter how much Kakuryu feigns an opening, may lose the match.
