Hatsu Day 6 Preview

Bruce H Abi (阿炎), Aoiyama, Asanoyama (朝乃山), Chiyomaru, Chiyoshoma, Chiyotairyū (千代大龍), Daieisho (大栄翔), Daishoho, Endo (遠藤), Enho, Gōeidō (豪栄道), Hokutōfuji (北勝富士), Ichinojo (逸ノ城), Ishiura (石浦), Kagayaki (輝), Kaisei (魁聖), Kakuryu (鶴竜), Kotoeko, Kotoshogiku (琴奨菊), Meisei, Mitakeumi(御嶽海), Myogiryu (妙義龍), Natsu Basho 2019, Nishikigi, Okinoumi (隠岐の海), Ryuden (竜電), Sadanoumi (佐田の海), Shimanoumi, Shohozan, Shōdai (正代直也), Takarafuji (宝富士), Takayasu (高安), Tamawashi (玉鷲), Terutsuyoshi, Tochinoshin (栃ノ心), Tochiozan (栃煌山), Tokushoryu, Tomokaze, Yago, Yoshikaze (嘉風), Ōnoshō (阿武咲)

Welcome to the start of act 2! We sort the survivors from the damned, and we get our first look at the yusho race. The second act also includes the middle weekend of the tournament, and we know that NHK World Japan will be doing another Grand Sumo Live broadcast for the final hours of Makuuchi on day 8 (Sunday), which works out to the early morning hours of Sunday in the USA. We also know that a number of great folks who are friends of Tachiai will be in the Kokugikan taking on the sights and sounds of the day. As always, we will bring you all the coverage.

What We Are Watching Day 6

Daishoho vs Kotoeko – Kotoeko has been producing some of the most consistently fun to watch sumo this basho. The guy is fairly small without being an Enho-class pixie, he’s got a lot of strength, and each match features a flurry of frantic sumo delivered with power. The fun fact is that Kotoeko and Daishoho have a good history in the lower division, and they come into day 6 with an even 5-5 record across their career.

Tokushoryu vs Chiyoshoma – This one just screams henka.

Chiyomaru vs Ishiura – Also enough henka bait to lure Harumafuji out of retirement with Aminishiki ready for support.

Terutsuyoshi vs Sadanoumi – First-time match between these two, with Terutsuyoshi clearly still struggling to find his groove in the top division now 1⅓ tournaments in. Sadanoumi has been around enough that unless Terutsuyoshi has a good battle plan and can execute well in the first few seconds, Terutsuyoshi is likely to see loss #4.

Enho vs Yago – Yago is this bulky bison kind of fellow. Even his head is ridiculously meaty, and I sometimes think that his head could easily win the Jonidan yusho on its own should it ever detach from his body. Enho is expected to do the hop-and-duck tachiai popularized by Mianoumi, and then latch on firmly to any exposed extremity and pull with vigor. Come to think of it, should he catch a grip of Yago’s neck, we may still get to see that Jonidan yusho bid.

Nishikigi vs Shohozan – The enchanted Cinderella man that was Nishikigi seems to be on holiday somewhere, and we return to the normal work-a-day Nishikigi who can’t remember which tsukibeto has his spectacles. I want to see the guy who survived in the joi-jin for a while come back. Shohozan is likely to take the current Nishikigi to the wood shed in short order.

Kagayaki vs Tomokaze – Kagayaki is a mess right now. I am not sure if he is hurt, or just at a transitional phase in his training. But it’s not working out for him at the moment, and even his distracting man-boobs seem to have called it a day. Tomokaze won their only prior match.

Onosho vs Asanoyama – This match gives me great pain, as I want them both to win. It’s clear that Asanoyama is having a great start to the tournament—a win today would tie his longest unbeaten streak to start a tournament, which was back at Hatsu in 2018, where he finished 10-5 with a tiny Kanto-sho for his debut (at Maegashira 16). Onosho on the other hand has a problem with balance that has only gotten worse since his knee surgery. I wish I could find a way to recommend yoga for Onosho; it did wonders for my balance.

Kaisei vs Yoshikaze – Yoshikaze has a tough time with Kaisei, probably due to the huge amount of mass that has to be shuffled off the dohyo or down to the clay. Yoshikaze has always been about speed, but there are no fast roads in Kaisei-town. Kaisei holds a 12-4 career lead.

Myogiryu vs Shodai – I am going to watch Shodai do some great “stunt sumo” again on day 6, and it’s marvelously fun or annoying. Myogiryu is looking far off his sumo this basho, and I expect that as long as Shodai does not do anything too egregious at the tachiai, he should be able to control Myogiryu.

Meisei vs Ryuden – I really like Meisei’s chances against Shin-Ikioi today, as Meisei has been showing some good balance and footwork even though he has a 2-3 record coming into the match. [The head-to-head favors Meisei 7-4. -lksumo] Overall I think Ryuden is looking like a good candidate for a top Maegashira slot in the sweatbox of Nagoya.

Takarafuji vs Abi – Takarafuji will want to go chest to chest, Abi will want to windmill the Isegahama man into submission. Will this be a quick slap-slap-down event, or some kind of epic battle that makes us all cheer?

Endo vs Okinoumi – Both of these banged up rikishi come into day 6 with a meager 1-4 record, both of them are on course for a make-koshi, and both of them are safe from any serious demotion threat. Both of them are fairly technical, and I personally think Okinoumi is fighting better right now.

Aoiyama vs Hokutofuji – Battle of the punching-bags, as both men have been chew-toys for the upper named ranks for the past few days. Both of them have a 1-4 record to show for it. Hokutofuji is going to try to grab a handful of man-mountain, and Aoiyama is going to try to bludgeon Hokutofuji into the clay. Fun times. [Hokutofuji has prevailed in all but one of their previous 7 meetings. -lksumo]

Kotoshogiku vs Mitakeumi – I continue to be impressed with Kotoshogiku, while it looks like Mitakeumi is “holding station” for the moment, and waiting for a Sekiwake slot to open up for Nagoya. We still don’t know how serious Mitakeumi’s knee problems are, or what kind of injury state he is currently managing during competition. We do know that Kotoshogiku has most of the “tough” parts of his schedule complete now, and if he can keep racking up wins, should return to the named ranks for July. [Mitakeumi holds a 9-4 career edge against the former Ozeki. -lksumo]

Ichinojo vs Tochinoshin – Which Ichinojo will climb the dohyo on day 6? Will it be the strong, confident one that tosses people about with almost inhuman force? Tochinoshin holds a 15-5 career lead over Ichinojo, but will Tochinoshin engage the sky crane against about 505 pounds of rikishi?

Tamawashi vs Takayasu – These two used to share Sekiwake duties a few years back, and would always smack each other around once a basho. Their records show it, with a 12-11 slightly favoring Takayasu. I am going to guess we will see Takayasu’s wild, chaotic “kitchen sink” sumo as he throws everything at least once or twice against Tamawashi.

Goeido vs Chiyotairyu – I was surprised by Goeido’s day 5 loss, and I have to start wondering if the Ozeki is once again fighting hurt, and if so, how damaged he might be. A frequent problem is that right ankle, which has undergone surgery at least once. Genki Goeido has few problems with Chiyotairyu, but Goeido with ankle problems can do little more than try to pull Chiyotairyu down. [Chiyotairyu owns 6 upset wins in their 14 previous encounters. Will we see a Goeido henka? -lksumo]

Daieisho vs Kakuryu – A 2-0 career advantage for the Yokozuna, but there is that nagging question of Daieisho’s upset of Goeido on day 5. Kakuryu has also been using a lot of pulling / reverse motion sumo the past 2 days, and we have to wonder if maybe he has re-injured things as well.

Natsu Storylines, Day 5

lksumo Natsu Basho 2019
Tochinoshin sky-craning the Yokozuna back in September

With ten days of action left in the Summer basho, much is still to be decided, but we can begin to see the outlines of the stories that will define this tournament. Here are the storylines we’ll be following the rest of the way.

Who will take the yusho?

In the immortal words of Yogi Berra, it got late early. Judging by historical precedent, the yusho race is likely already down to two undefeated rikishi: Yokozuna Kakuryu and Sekiwake* Tochinoshin. How can I say this on Day 5? Well, although we all remember Tamawashi winning the Hatsu basho after a 3-2 start, that’s the only time this has happened in the last 20 years! Now, there have also been two tournament victors with 2-3 records on Day 5: Kyokutenho in 2012 and, memorably, Harumafuji in his final full tournament, Aki 2017. But with these rare exceptions, we can pretty much count on the winner racking up at least four shiroboshi by the 5th day.

Who else has met this threshold? We have M8 Asanoyama (5-0) and M4 Abi, M7 Shodai, M14 Enho, and M15 Kotoeko, all 4-1. Given the track record of this group, and the rarity of hiramaku (rank-and-file) yusho (four in the last 20 years), I just don’t see it.

Will Tochinoshin regain his Ozeki rank?

Everyone’s favorite Georgian has not only recorded five victories in five days, but has looked impressive in doing so. He needs to go 5-5 the rest of the way to reclaim his Ozeki rank one year after his promotion, and seems very likely to do if he stays healthy [crosses fingers, prays to all relevant kami]. Tochinoshin’s quest will be aided by the absences of Hakuho and Takakeisho, who accounted for two of his losses in Osaka. That leaves him with only four opponents ranked above him; he faces the first of these, fellow Sekiwake Ichinojo, (2-3) tomorrow.

We’ve seen some titanic battles between these two, but the head-to-head favors Tochinoshin 16-5, including 6 victories in a row, unsurprisingly all by yorikiri. Tochinoshin handed Ichinojo his only loss in Osaka, depriving him of a shot at the yusho and us of a first-ever playoff between 15-0 rikishi. Unless the big Mongolian draws strong motivation from that defeat, current form favors Tochinoshin.

Who will occupy the San’yaku ranks in July?

How are the Sekiwake and Komusubi ranks faring? West Sekiwake* Tochinoshin seems likely to vacate his slot via promotion. West Komusubi Mitakeumi has put himself in a good position with a 3-2 record during the most difficult part of his fight card, and should be favored against his remaining opponents with the exception of Goeido and Tochinoshin (he won’t have to face his nemesis, Kaisei, who is too far down the banzuke). East Sekiwake Ichinojo has dug himself a bit of a hole with a 2-3 start, with his toughest bouts yet to come, and his fate really depends on whether he can reawaken his inner beast from Osaka. Finally, East Komusubi Aoiyama (1-4) will have to turn things around in a hurry if he wants to stay in the named ranks.

While it’s way to early to know who will be in contention to occupy any San’yaku slots that open up, M2 Daieisho (3-2) and M4 Abi (4-1) currently sport the only winning records among the upper maegashira.

Who will be in Makuuchi in July?

Five of the rikishi in the bottom 8 ranks (M13w-M17e) have posted a 2-3 score over the opening 5 days, so we could be in for another messy demotion picture. The positive exceptions are M14w Enho and M15w Kotoeko, who have sprinted out to 4-1 records while bringing exciting sumo to the dohyo every day. Each likely needs only 3 more victories to stay in the top division. On the flip side, we have M16w Ishiura (1-4). Barring yet more miraculous banzuke luck, he will need to go 7-3 or better the rest of the way, and do it mostly against higher-ranked opposition, for Hakuho’s dream of performing a dohyo-iri with his two uchi-deshi as attendants is to stay alive for Nagoya.

Down in Juryo, J1w Ikioi (0-5) continues to be a trainwreck, and it seems likely that we won’t see him back up in Makuuchi any time soon. On the other hand, fellow demotees J1e Toyonoshima (4-1) and J5e Yutakayama (4-1) are making strong pushes to keep their second-division visits brief. They are joined in the promotion queue by J2e Takagenji (5-0), who is seeking to make his top-division debut, and J3e Kyokushuho (4-1), who is seeking to return for the first time since March 2017. This quartet is also your Juryo yusho leaderboard.

Hatsu Day 6 – Ones To Watch

Bruce H Ones To Watch , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Amakaze – Keep Winning Please!

First, the day 5 action did not disappoint. For starters, Wakaichiro reverted to form and blasted Amamidake off the dohyo with little resistance from Amamidake. He advances to 1-2, and he still has a fair shot at kachi-koshi. Terunofuji made similar swift work of Komakiryu, and former high school Yokozuna Kitanowaka dispatched the helpless Yabugasaki along the same lines. For those who made it to Makushita, Midorifuji lost, Hoshoryu lost, Wakamotoharu won, as did Ichiyamamoto in his visit to Juryo – forcing out Tobizaru to improve to 2-1.

Now on to day 6, and we find the remainder of our rikishi stepping on the clay to have their 3rd match of the basho. For the undefeated, this weekend could bring the first kachi-koshi scores, and we are eagerly waiting to see if any of our favorites will make it into yusho playoff brackets.

Day 6 Matches

Wakatakamoto vs Ayanoumi – A misery match as both rikishi come to the dohyo with 0-2 records. Thankfully at least one of these guys will leave with their first win. Wakatakamoto can still get to 4 wins, but he needs to turn his sumo around and start dominating his matches.

Akua vs Kaito – On the other side of the score, we have the so far undefeated Akua, who if he can continue his momentum can put himself within range to return to the top of Makushita for Nagoya. Day 6 he faces Asakayama’s Kaito who is on a bit of a surge since Hatsu, going 5-2 for the first 2 basho of 2019.

Naya vs Ryusei – Also in the 2-0 bracket is Naya, who seems to have come to a level of comfort with his larger body, and his sumo. He faces 32 year old veteran Ryusei, who has been struggling for the past 6 months with 2 consecutive kachi-koshi scores.

Musashikuni vs Goryu – Sadly we find that Musashikuni has yet to win a single match, and day 6 is his best chance to stave off a path to make-koshi by overcoming 29 year old veteran Goryu, who is moving back up the banzuke after an extended period in Sandanme.

Roga vs Hokuyozan – Roga finds himself in the 1-1 bracket at the top third of Sandanme, and can cleanly move to Makushita should he pick up the remaining matches. Hokuyozan has struggled with 3 kyujo periods in his career, and is currently fighting at his highest ever rank.

Shoji vs Saionji – Shoji has faced Saionji before on Hatsu 2019 day 6, which he lost to Saionji. This rematch in the 1-1 bracket will put the winner in positive score going into the middle weekend of the basho. Mushashigawa heya could use some wins today, as many of their kanban rikishi are under-performing at the start of Natsu.

Amakaze vs Hikarifuji – Amakaze continues to quietly go about the business of winning matches, he comes into day 6 2-0, and frankly looking fairly sharp. Hikarifuji is a 20 year old rikishi who peaked at Sandanme 24 in January before falling down the banzuke to his current rank of Sd81.

Natsu Day 5 Highlights

Bruce H Abi (阿炎), Aoiyama, Asanoyama (朝乃山), Chiyomaru, Chiyoshoma, Chiyotairyū (千代大龍), Daiamami (大奄美), Daieisho (大栄翔), Endo (遠藤), Enho, Gōeidō (豪栄道), Hokutōfuji (北勝富士), Ichinojo (逸ノ城), Ishiura (石浦), Kagayaki (輝), Kaisei (魁聖), Kakuryu (鶴竜), Kotoeko, Kotoshogiku (琴奨菊), Mitakeumi(御嶽海), Myogiryu (妙義龍), Natsu Basho 2019, Okinoumi (隠岐の海), Ryuden (竜電), Sadanoumi (佐田の海), Shimanoumi, Shōdai (正代直也), Takakeishō (貴景勝), Takarafuji (宝富士), Takayasu (高安), Terutsuyoshi, Tochinoshin (栃ノ心), Tochiozan (栃煌山), Tokushoryu, Yago, Yoshikaze (嘉風), Ōnoshō (阿武咲) , , , , , , ,
The Champions

We closed out the first act of the Natsu basho in fine style, though it is with some disappointment that we recognize that Ozeki Takakeisho has withdrawn from competition after injuring his right knee in the yotsu-zumo win over Mitakeumi. Watching the replays, you can see his right knee buckle slightly as he goes to finish lifting Mitakeumi over the tawara, and that’s likely when the injury happened. The good news is that its probably an over-extension of the tissue, rather than a complete fail like we saw take place with Ura. As of this morning there is no word how long Takakeisho will be sitting out, but the medical guidances states 3 weeks, and Chiganoura Oyakata seems to be the kind to err on the side of caution with the condition of his rikishi.

Exiting act 1, we have 3 rikishi with perfect records. Kakuryu and Tochinoshin are notable, but not unexpected, but Asanoyama is a stand-out. He has shown fairly milling performance during the past 4 tournaments, but looks strong, focused and confident. Furthermore, his sumo is almost textbook perfect in terms of body position, hand position and footwork. This is actually his best start since Hatsu 2018 when he won 6 straight to open the new year. But I would note, he was ranked Maegashira 16 for that tournament.

Highlight Matches

Kotoeko defeats Ishiura – If you were looking for lightning fast, high intensity struggle from the start, you got your wish. These two refused to let the other dictate the terms of the match, and it was quite the brawl. Ishiura’s technique is better now than it has been in a while, and it’s a shame he only has 1 win so far.

Kyokushuho defeats Terutsuyoshi – Juryo visitor Kyokushuho attacks Terutsuyoshi with great effect, as it almost looks as if Terutsuyoshi changes his intent just after the tachiai. That apparent indecision was all that was needed for Kyokushuho to completely encircle Terutsuyoshi and toss him out.

Enho defeats Chiyoshoma – I assumed going into this match that it was going to be a very busy contest, with lots of fierce action, and both rikishi were up to the task. The Enho tactic of “grab any piece of him you can” was in full effect, with the Pixie making do with whatever appendage belonging to Chiyoshoma was at hand. If Enho can stay healthy, he is going to be trouble.

Yago defeats Tokushoryu – For the second day in a row, we see Tokushoryu decide to go chest to chest, and it’s not really working for him. Given Tokushoryu’s somewhat unique body shape, the task is a tough one for Yago, but that fellow is determined, and may not know any better.

Tochiozan defeats Chiyomaru – Tochiozan seems to lack a measure of the strength he used to bring to the dohyo, but his skill has done nothing but improve as they years tick by. Chiyomaru keeps trying to circle away, but that gambit is completely ineffective as Tochiozan grabs a hold of Chiyomaru and keeps reeling him in.

Shimanoumi defeats Onosho – Shimanoumi picks up a much needed win, as Onosho falls into his old habit of being just a bit too far forward over his toes. Shimanoumi’s footwork is excellent as he delays stepping out until Onosho touches down. Well played by Shimanoumi.

Asanoyama defeats Kagayaki – In addition to remaining undefeated, Asanoyama’s form is absolutely fantastic. In fact I could see him modeling for any wood block print of sumotori from any era. Kagayaki is completely out-classed and has nothing to bring in response to Asanoyama’s near perfect offensive sumo.

Shodai defeats Yoshikaze – I am still sensing that Yoshikaze is having problems generating forward pressure, and that showed again today as he broke off and re-charged into Shodai a few times. Shodai’s superior lateral mobility carried the match, as he was able to execute a twisting side-step to reverse Yoshikaze into a losing position. Can this guy please fix his tachiai so he can be a big deal?

Takarafuji defeats Kaisei – Big strength yotsu battle between these two, and in spite of Kaisei’s mass advantage, the ever resolute Takarafuji gave no quarter and kept the Brazilian from overpower him.

Abi defeats Myogiryu – Myogiryu decides he wants to meet the windmill-oshi attack from Abi in kind, and finds that there is no way he is going to overpower his opponent. I continue to be amazed that Abi-zumo continues to pay off, with Abi now 4-1.

Okinoumi defeats Ryuden – At last Okinoumi scores his first win. This was a high-strength, high-skill sumo contest that raged across the dohyo, with advantage changing hands multiple times. But what impressed me is that Okinoumi kept his hips low, his attention focused, and maintained visual contact with his opponent. The kimarite is listed as tsukiotoshi, but it looks more like Ryuden lost traction and his knee touched down. Excellent bout, well worth 2 replays.

Kotoshogiku defeats Endo – Genuine Kotoshogiku Kyushu-Bulldozer style sumo today. Not the “Hug-n-Chug”, but the hips low, plowing the other guy off the dohyo kind of sumo.

Tochinoshin defeats Hokutofuji – Points to Hokutofuji, as he was able to keep Tochinoshin in a “lead right” position, never allowing him to switch left and engage his primary weapon. But as a measure of how motivated Tochinoshin is right now, he found a way to get the sky crane running and carried the match. 5-0 now, half way to returning to Ozeki.

Mitakeumi defeats Ichinojo – It’s easy to spot how this goes wrong for Ichinojo in the footage of this match. Ichinojo continuously focuses on pulling Mitakeumi down by applying force to Mitakeumi’s head. Mitakeumi focuses on Ichinojo’s chest and moves forward. Sumo!

Daieisho defeats Goeido – A surprising match as Daieisho is able to beat Goeido at the tachiai, get inside and force the Ozeki high and back. Goeido was never able to set his feet, or generate any forward pressure.

Takayasu defeats Chiyotairyu – Chiyotairyu owned this match from the tachiai, and Takayasu was able to recover by exploiting Chiyotairyu’s tendency to charge forward in hopes his opponent won’t move to the side, which Takayasu executed with great timing to send Chiyotairyu to the clay. Takayasu continues to look very rough.

Kakuryu defeats Aoiyama – To me, I am going to say that it looks almost like Aoiyama was holding back. When we see him power up those big, long arms, we tend to see him focus on blunt force trauma via tsuppari, but instead he seems to keep it only at 70% against Kakuryu. Big K continues in the undefeated column.