Natsu Storylines, Day 11

Well, Day 11 certainly shook things up!

Who will take the yusho?

Of the three co-leaders going into Day 11—Yokozuna Kakuryu, Sekiwake* Tochinoshin, and M8 Asanoyama—only the rank-and-filer managed to record a win, leaving him in sole possession of the lead. Everyone in the 2 or 3 loss group also lost, so M15 Kotoeko (8-3) is the only other remaining rikishi within two wins of the lead.

Tomorrow, the leader’s degree of difficulty goes up considerably when he is matched against M3 Tamawashi (7-4), who won their only prior meeting back in November. Kakuryu faces M5 Ryuden (7-4) in a first-time meeting. Tochinoshin will try to record his all-important 10th win, and stay in the yusho race, in another first-time bout with M7 Meisei (7-4).

The scheduling beyond Day 12 is complicated by Ichinojo’s return from kyujo. Everything was lined up for a round-robin among Kakuryu, Goeido, Takayasu, and Tochinoshin, but as the East Sekiwake, Ichinojo should technically be scheduled against the Yokozuna and Ozeki ahead of Tochinoshin, and there are not enough days left in the tournament to accommodate both. It’ll be interesting to see what the schedulers decide to do. If nothing else, they now have plenty of options for throwing high-rank obstacles in Asanoyama’s path to a yusho.

Will Tochinoshin regain his Ozeki rank?

He missed his first opportunity to clinch the needed double-digit wins, and really shouldn’t miss his second, as the fight card gets a lot tougher from there, especially with the added pressure.

Who will occupy the San’yaku ranks in July?

East Komusubi Aoiyama (5-6) upset Takayasu for his 4th win in a row. He has the chance to even his record tomorrow against returning Ichinojo, and suddenly his odds to stay in San’yaku don’t look so bad. West Komusubi Mitakeumi (6-5) dropped his second straight, and now needs to finish 2-2 or better to break Goeido’s modern-day record of 14 consecutive basho at Sekiwake/Komusubi. Ichinojo (2-6-3) can only reach a maximum of 6 wins, so he is mathematically out of the named ranks, and can only hope to limit the size of his demotion.

We could still see anywhere from one to four open San’yaku slots. Asanoyama and Tamawashi are the current frontrunners for promotion, pending the outcome of their bout tomorrow. Abi and Ryuden are next in line, followed by Daieisho (who got robbed today) and Takarafuji.

Who will be in Makuuchi in July?

Chiyoshoma and Tokushoryu continue to “lead” the demotion race, and both need to win out to reach safety. With a dearth of promotion candidates in Juryo, we may again witness a kind demotion environment, but Ishiura, Kagayaki and Terutsuyoshi each still need two victories to control their fate, while Daishoho, Sadanoumi, and Chiyomaru need one apiece.

Takagenji, who lost for the first time today, remains the class of Juryo and the only one sure to move up to the top division. Top-ranked Toyonoshima (6-5) has now dropped 4 in a row, and his re-promotion is suddenly looking a lot shakier. And our old friend Kotoyuki (J6, 8-4) got first dirt on the leader and is making a late promotion push.

Who will make the jump from upper Makushita to Juryo?

As a result of Day 11 bouts, Ms2w Takanofuji (6-0), Ms3e Ichiyamamoto (4-2), Ms3w Kizakiumi (5-1) and Ms4e Ryuko (5-1) look good for promotion. With as many as 7 slots in Juryo possibly up for grabs, I would not rule out Ms2e Kotokamatani (3-3) or even Ms4w Hoshoryu 3-3.

Natsu Day 12 – Ones To Watch

Day 11 was chock-ablock with our “Ones to Watch” cohorts, and that leaves day 12 with a light schedule. On day 11, we had the yusho candidates facing each other, and the few remaining undefeated in our list all took their first loss. This included Naya losing to Takanofuji, who will face Chiyoarashi for the Makushita yusho. In Sandanme, Amakaze lost to Toyo University entrant Shiraishi, who will go on to contest for the yusho on day 13.

I also am happy to report that Wakaichiro picked up his 4th win and secure his kachi-koshi after a worrying 0-2 start. He battled back from a cold opening to a winning record, with one match left to decide how large his July promotion will be. For reasons I don’t understand, he always fights better in Tokyo.

For those following the return of former Ozeki Terunofuji, he also won decisively on day 11, improving to 5-1. Roga also won, securing his kachi-koshi in a very one-sided match against Aratora.

Day 12 Matches

Wakatakamoto vs Jokoryu – Both men hold a make-koshi (1-4), and for Jokoryu this derails any hope he might have of returning to the salaried ranks any time soon. Experience edge goes to Jokoryu, and I think I would give a health advantage to Wakatakamoto.

Midorifuji vs Chiyootori – The former Komusubi, Chiyootori, is one win away from a winning record, if he can get past Midorifuji. Chiyootori is not ranked high enough to make it back to Juryo this tournament, but he could possibly get to that position by Aki with some skill and some luck.

Akua vs Bushozan – Both men have their 4th win already, and now they are fighting for rank in the Makushita joi-jin for Nagoya. Bushozan is fighting just below his highest ever rank, where Akua seeks to return to Juryo soon.

Musashikuni vs Keitenkai – Musashikuni can still reach kachi-koshi, but he needs to win his 2 remaining matches. His oppoennt, Keitenkai, was injured on day 2 of Aki 2012, and spent the next year struggling to recover and re-ascend the banzuke.

Shoji vs Hikarugenji – Winner of this match is kachi-koshi. Their one prior match was taken by Osaka native Hikarugenji.

Kitanowaka vs Ryuga – This match is actually to determine where to rank both of these 4-1 rikishi for the Nagoya banzuke. I would expect both of them to make the cut for Jonidan, but where is the quesiton.

Natsu Day 11 Highlights

We all knew that with Hakuho out, it was going to get wild, and while there had been some fun days leading up to the start of act 3, the opening day of the final third of this basho decided to unleash the unexpected, and take this tournament into overdrive.

For starters, the Ozeki corps, including the Ozekiwake, ate clay today in matches that saw their opponents deliver better sumo than they could. Furthermore, Yokozuna Kakuryu paid the price for one of his “bad habits” by delivering a cherished kinboshi to Myogiryu, summoning the zabuton rain at the Kokugikan.

However, Asanoyama won, leaving the Maegashira 8 in sole possession of the lead at the end of day 11. I will state that this guy deserves at least a special prize. His sumo has been dead on since the start, and so far he is not showing any fade into week 2. Now the pressure of being the leader rather than the underdog may crack him as soon as tomorrow, but I think it’s an indication that Asanoyama is going to be one of the stars of sumo in the new era.

Highlight Matches

Chiyomaru defeats Kotoeko – Today Chiyomaru’s sumo was working, and he completely disrupted Kotoeko’s attempts to attack or evade.

Yago defeats Daishoho – A very evenly balanced shoving match that saw no clear advantage until Yago dropped his hips and put more travel in his oshi.

Terutsuyoshi defeats Tochiozan – Terutsuyoshi’s effective submarine-tachiai allows him to lift Tochiozan by the mawashi and charge forward for a much needed win.

Chiyoshoma defeats Kagayaki – Kagayaki looks completely lost in this match. His oshi attacks are focused high, when he runs out of ideas he takes Chiyoshoma to his chest, and that is where he really shut down. I am going to guess that Kagayaki ends up deeply make-koshi.

Tomokaze defeats Enho – Some nice gymnastics out of Enho today, especially recovering his footing and balance after Tomokaze nearly pushes him into a seated position. I still assume Enho will hit kachi-koshi before Sunday.

Nishikigi defeats Tokushoryu – Once again, Tokushoryu’s cab-foward design causes him to have huge trouble slowing his forward momentum. Nishikigi uses this today with great effect.

Asanoyama defeats Sadanoumi – In the first “What the hell was that” moments, the shimpan call a monoii, and then completely confuse everyone, including themselves with their resulting narrative. They eventually called the match for Asanoyama, after explaining how Sadanoumi was the winner. From the replay, it’s clear Asanoyama had won the match, and they knew it too, but could not communicate it.

Meisei defeats Ishiura – Meisei gets lower, stays lower and pushes harder to take the match. Ishiura still has some work to do.

Shodai defeats Shohozan – The whole time, Shodai is far too high, but his feet stay stuck to the clay, and he wears Shohozan down, and then finishes him off. Good job Shodai!

Shimanoumi defeats Yoshikaze – Yoshikaze manages some offense today, but it’s only a fraction of what he is capable of, and Shimanoumi shoves him from the dohyo. Yoshikaze make-koshi.

Takarafuji defeats Onosho – There probably should have been a monoii on this one, but after the Asanoyama debacle, I am guessing the shimpan did not want to further confuse matters with a rambling, babbling explanation that left everyone puzzled and anxious.

Tamawashi defeats Chiyotairyu – Solid Tamawashi sumo today that ends with a Chiyotairyu slippiotoshi. Tamawashi takes the initiative at the tachiai, and Chiyotairyu is left struggling to keep his balance.

Okinoumi defeats Daieisho – When you watch this one, pay attention to Okinoumi’s feet. I love how they barely leave the clay. That’s excellent defensive sumo skill on ample display.

Kotoshogiku defeats Hokutofuji – After a matta, Kotoshogiku sets up his favorite hold and applies the hug-n-chug with great effect. Hokutofuji seems likely to end up make-koshi, and he needs to refine his sumo to effectively operate at this rank. I have confidence he will get there.

Endo defeats Mitakeumi – Endo gets mae-mitsu early, and has firm control of the match, Mitakeumi backs away and attempt to load a throw, but the pivot fails and leaves Endo behind him in control.

Abi defeats Tochinoshin – Tochinoshin’s triumphant 10th win is delayed as Abi employs his best Abi-zumo with devastating effect. It seems Tochinoshin ramped up the forward pressure the counter Abi’s expected double arm thrusts, and Abi turned that forward lean into the seed of the winning hatakikomi.

Ryuden defeats Goeido – Goeido got into trouble when Ryuden landed his right hand grip and used it to keep Goeido leading forward to compensate. This was not Goeido doing crappy sumo, this was Ryuden really doing fantastic sumo.

Aoiyama defeats Takayasu – Frankly some of the best sumo I have seen from Aoiyama in a year or so. He was low, he was relentless and he never let Takayasu really enact any offense.

Myogiryu defeats Kakuryu – Kakuryu gets stalemated, loses patience, decides to pull, and Myogiryu is waiting for it. Excellent planning and execution by Myogiryu, and I am sure Kakuryu is chiding himself for falling into his bad sumo.

Ichinojo Returns on Day 12

Sekiwake Ichinojo, who pulled out of the tournament on Day 8, is returning on Day 12, according to the just-released torikumi. With his 2-6-3 record, the best he can hope to do is 6 wins, which wouldn’t be enough to keep him in San’yaku, but presumably he wants to limit the size of his demotion. Let’s hope the decision to return isn’t as misguided as Takakeisho’s was.

Just like Takakeisho, Ichinojo faces Aoiyama in his first bout back. This gives the schedulers an extra intra-San’yaku matchup and allows them to postpone a marquee pairing until deeper in the tournament. Although Ichinojo hasn’t faced Kakuryu, Goeido, or Takayasu, neither has Tochinoshin, and it will be interesting to see what the schedulers end up doing on the final 3 days, since technically Ichinojo outranks Tochinoshin but makes for less interesting bouts.

The Day 12 matchups for the Big 4 are Kakuryu vs. Ryuden, Goeido vs. Takarafuji, Takayasu vs. Abi, and Tochinoshin vs. Meisei. Co-leader Asanoyama draws Tamawashi, while chaser Kotoeko (M15, 8-2) will face Okinoumi (M4, 2-8), an 11-rank disparity.