An interesting Senshuraku to close out the Hatsu basho. There is only a single Darwin match, and two visitors from Juryo. In Juryo, there are just two rikishi with 7-7 records. Rather than have them face off Darwin style (they had already faced each other), 7-7 Takagenji has to take on 10-4 Ura, and 7-7 Yago draws Makushita promotion hopeful Tochimaru.

For the yusho, I am expecting Daieisho to walk away with the hardware. He has shown no signs of slowing down into week 2, and if he is feeling any pressure, it’s not effecting his sumo. Shodai’s road to a playoff is as tough as possible now, and I just don’t see a high chance that it would play out that way. Frankly, I was looking for Terunofuji to play spoiler in week 2, but I was surprised it was against Shodai rather than Asanoyama. Speaking of the kaiju, he has a really strong chance of finishing Hatsu at 11-4, which would make his magic number 10 for March. Entirely plausible. Plus I note that chairman Hakkaku has been complimenting Terunofuji’s sumo in the past few months.

Hatsu Leaderboard

Daieisho controls the yusho race, if he wins today, he takes the cup. If he loses today, its incumbent on Shodai to beat Asanoyama and force a playoff.

Leader – Daieisho
Chaser –Shodai

1 Match Remains

What We Are Watching Day 15

Akua vs Hidenoumi – I am going to guess this is an exchange bout, literally. Akua is likely headed for Juryo, and Hidenoumi possibly returning to Makuuchi for the first time in 3 years. They have an even 2-2 record.

Yutakayama vs Myogiryu – The lone Darwin match of the basho. For Yutakayama a win he stays in the top division for certain. They have an even 2-2 career record, so this should be a hell of a fight.

Tokushoryu vs Daishomaru – Another possible “exchange” match, I would be a bit surprised if Tokushoryu dropped to Juryo from Maegashira 8, but with a 3-11 or maybe 3-12 record, I guess its a concern. Daishomaru at 10-4 or maybe 11-4 from Juryo 8 may not quite have the mojo to break back into the top division, but again, maybe that’s what this match is all about. Daishomaru holds a 7-3 career advantage.

Midorifuji vs Tobizaru – A couple of busy little guys who are likely to smack each other around at double time. I expect a lot of motion, a lot of hitting and maybe a throw or two (yes, or two). Midorifuji is already kachi-koshi and Tobizaru already make-koshi, so this is more or less to watch to compact battle bros slug it out.

Akiseyama vs Kagayaki – Kagayaki (5-9) need to regroup. He runs a real risk of a double digit make-koshi, and he’s a more capable rikishi than that. Injury? Illness? No clue, but I hope he can get back on track in March.

Ryuden vs Aoiyama – I think the scheduling committee is opening the door for both of them to finish at 5-10, which would require a Ryuden win. Neither have fought well in January, and I think they will be happy just to finish the basho.

Endo vs Kotonowaka – First time match, and I am guessing Kotonowaka may find his hands full with Endo today. While Kotonowaka will try to dictate an oshi-zumo battle, watch for Endo’s shallow right hand grip before the second step.

Kotoeko vs Tamawashi – A pair of brawlers who need some time in dry dock. Tamawashi holds a 4-0 advantage, and a win today would mean both end the basho with 6-9 make-koshi records. Much as I have loved Tamwashi’s sumo over the years, he is headed down the same road is Ikioi and Shohozan, as age and injury degrade his sumo.

Tochinoshin vs Terutsuyoshi – A man with one good leg takes on a man with one good arm. Both are make-koshi, so this is an ugly little battle. Given Terutsuyoshi comparatively light (112kg) size, we may see one more sky-crane from Tochinoshin for good measure.

Hoshoryu vs Onosho – Another first time match, and it should be a good one. Can Hoshoryu finish 10-0 after starting 0-5? If so, it will be quite the turn around. Onosho’s got mass and power on his side, Hoshoryu has agility and a broader catalog of kimarite. I am looking forward to this fight.

Kotoshoho vs Sadanoumi – Yeah, I can’t watch this one. I am guessing Kotoshoho finishes 1-14.

Takarafuji vs Shimanoumi – Takarafuji finishing double-digits in the joi-jin? Strong chance of it as Shimanoumi does struggle to overcome Takarafuji’s defensive sumo style. Both rikishi are kachi-koshi, so this is just fighting for rank at this point. Though withe the San’yaku all kachi-koshi, there are not many slots to move up for March.

Okinoumi vs Daieisho – THE match, the big match. Journeyman veteran Okinoumi holds a narrow 10-8 career advantage over Daieisho. But Daieisho has won 5 of the last 6. I thikn that unless Okinoumi finds some reserve of genki, it’s going to be an explosive tachiai from Daieisho, and 4 steps to the win, followed by hoisting the fish, a giant macaron, and too much sake.

Hokutofuji vs Ichinojo – Can he do it? Can Hokutofuji get his 7th win to complete “The Most Powerful Make-Koshi In All Of Sumo?” He has to overcome a rock-steady Ichinojo and find a way to move the boulder. If the big Mongolian can stay stable and stay upright, Hokutofuji has his work cut out for him.

Kiribayama vs Mitakeumi – Both kachi-koshi, so this is to see who can get win number 9. Mitakeumi has never beaten Kiribayama in 3 tries, so maybe this will be his day.

Takayasu vs Takanosho – I look at this match, and wonder how many Sekiwake will appear on the Haru banzuke. I don’t think that 10 from Takayasu would force them to grant him a slot. As Takanosho got his 8th win on Saturday, the only likely change will be a slot created for Daieisho.

Terunofuji vs Meisei – I am looking for Terunofuji to hit 11 today, literally and figuratively. He holds a 2-0 advantage over Meisei, and I think he will dispatch him within the first 15 seconds.

Asanoyama vs Shodai – The two highest ranking survivors in the final match of the basho. Should the unlikely happen, and Daieisho lost his match to Okinoumi, this would be Shodai’s only opportunity to force a playoff. He has split his 8 prior matches with Asanoyama, so this is going to be a big fight either way.

The penultimate day of Hatsu was a roaring, back breaking, endurance grinding, dirt eating thrill. Not sure when I have seen such a day of quality sumo, and I am glad I was around to see it. The match of the day is, without a doubt, Terunofuji’s win over Shodai. Since Daieisho’s sweep of the Ozeki in week one, it was clear that any chaser was going to have to overcome very strong competition in week 2. Shodai’s sumo has been both impressive and a bit chaotic, but Terunofuji really gave him a fight today.

Daieisho has Okinoumi on day 15, who comes into the match at 7-7. I am not sure the veteran from Shimane-ken has what it takes this January to put Daieisho into the dohyo and bring about the potential for a playoff – if and only if Shodai can overcome Asanoyama. Daieisho owns his destiny now, and a win on day 15 will give him the Emperor’s Cup.

My compliments to the scheduling team in once again building a great basho with less than optimum materials to work from.

Highlight Matches

Kotonowaka defeats Yutakayama – Yet another day, and Yutakayama can’t get his 8th win. You can see the point where Yutakayama lets his frustration boil over, lunge in and give the match to Kotonowaka. Well, it’s Darwin time for Yutakayama on day 15. Kotonowaka improves to 10-4.

Myogiryu defeats Kotoeko – Myogiryu joins Yutakayama in the day 15 Darwin queue, as he defeats Kotoeko in spite of a last minute throw by Kotoeko. That’s loss number eight for Kotoeko and make-koshi.

Tokushoryu defeats Sadanoumi – Sadanoumi elects to get chest to chest with Tokushoryu, and Tokushoryu’s belly. The belly takes control and pushes Sadanoumi over the bales. Tokushoryu advances to 3-11 (well, 2(1)-11, that’s his belly there with one win).

Kiribayama defeats Midorifuji – An excellent endurance match, with Midorifuji supplying most of the offensive energy, and Kiribayama working hard to keep Midorifuji shut down and himself in the match. Then…. MAWASHI FAIL. Not enough that the NHK cameras comically pan to the roof in panic, but Kiribayama’s came loose, and the gyoji stops the match to perform a bit of in-situ haberdashery. Kiribayama’s post pause pulling attempt disrupted the stalemate, and he was able to get Midorifuji moving and pushed him out. Excellent sumo, and Kiribayama finds his 8th win for kachi-koshi. Brilliant match.

Hoshoryu defeats Tobizaru – A fine thrusting battle that was more or less even until Tobizaru attempts a pull and releases forward pressure. Hoshoryu capitalizes on this opening and runs Tobizaru off to visit the fans ring side. Tobizaru picks up his 8th loss and is make-koshi while Hoshoryu advances to 9-5. Nine straight wins after a 0-5 start.

Akua defeats Ryuden – Ryuden gets a bit too far forward and Akua uses his arm to lever him to the clay. Both are deeply make-koshi, but Akua improves to 5-9.

Akiseyama defeats Tochinoshin – Its becoming a frequent refrain – Tochinoshin’s knees don’t allow him to transmit enough power to ground to permit him to hold back a top division rikishi. Once Akiseyama starts to advance, all Tochinoshin can do is try to deflect. But that fails and he’s out in a moment. Akiseyama improves to 9-5.

Terutsuyoshi defeats Kotoshoho – Terutsuyoshi brought heaps of offensive power to this match, but Kotoshoho was not going to be a push over, in spite of what his 1-12 score might indicate. Even when Terutsuyoshi has morozashi, Kotoshoho defended and even brought Terutsuyoshi back to the center of the dohyo. Feeling an opportunity, Kotoshoho drover forward for a win, right into Terutsuyoshi’s utchari. Terutsuyoshi improves to 6-8. You have to feel for Kotoshoho, but he’s young, he’s good, and he will be back.

Shimanoumi defeats Onosho – Shimanoumi absorbed Onosho’s initial forward blast, and in many matches, that’s 80% of winning against Onosho. Shimanoumi stayed calm, stayed focused, and kept working to dial up the forward power, driving Onosho out by yorikiri. That’s win number 8 and kachi-koshi for Shimanoumi.

Takarafuji defeats Ichinojo – When Takarafuji endured Ichinojo’s opening combo, it was clear he was going to be able to set up his defend and extend technique against the Boulder. Other’s have tried this January, so bold move from Takarafuji. Takarafuji wisely set up with Ichinojo off axis, and did not need to bare the full weight of Ichinojo leaning forward. Takarafuji kept working a bit at a time further to the side of Ichinojo, reducing Ichinojo’s ability to push. I think it got to the point where Takarafuji realized it was “now or never” and lifted Ichinojo from the side and drove for the win. Great effort from both. That burst of strength from Takarafuji about 2 minutes into an endurance match really surprised me. Both end the day with 9-5.

Hokutofuji defeats Aoiyama – Again, where was this sumo week one Hokutofuji? With his mighty make-koshi firmly secured, Hokutofuji dominates each match now. To be fair Aoiyama decided to try and pull, and that just opened the door for Hokutofuji’s big thrust that won the match. He improves to 6-8.

Daieisho defeats Tamawashi – I was impressed that Daieisho’s big opening combo did not really move Tamawashi, who absorbed a couple of volleys, then attacked. Daieisho’s mobility was perfect, and he pulled in response to Tamawashi’s forward lunge, stepping to the side and bringing Tamawashi down. Daieisho improves to 12-2 and the yusho train keeps rolling.

Takayasu defeats Kagayaki – The move to look for is Takayasu’s big twist to break Kagayaki’s grip. It’s small and easy to miss, but that was magic, and it’s at that moment that Takayasu took control of the match and powered Kagayaki out. Takayasu improves to 9-5.

Endo defeats Mitakeumi – Endo got his frontal grip a moment after the tachiai, and he was in business. Sure, at that point it was like lifting a refrigerator across a curb, but Endo got it done. He improves to 6-8.

Takanosho defeats Okinoumi – To my eye that tachiai was in matta territory, but they went ahead with the match. Okinoumi was powering forward, and Takanosho responded with a step back and a hand to the back of Okinoumi’s neck. That’s win 8 for Takanosho. That’s kachi-koshi for Takanosho, and Okinoumi will need to win on day 15 to reach 8. Against…. Daieisho?!!

Terunofuji defeats Shodai – The big match we were all waiting to see, and it did not disappoint. Shodai opted to open defensive, and attempted a thrust down against the 3rd step of Terunofuji’s overpower charge. But Terunofuji’s balance was too well established, and the fight was on. Shodai pressed the attack chest to chest, and nearly drove Terunofuji from the ring, but again Terunofuji kept his feet quiet, and heavy. Shodai was leaping to maximize pressure, but could not finish him. For an instant Shodai found himself behind Terunofuji, but could not attack in time. Terunofuji attacks again, Shodai loses his footing and the kaiju slaps him down. Brilliant sumo. Shodai falls one behind Daieisho, Terunofuji hits double digits, and the sumo world goes crazy.

Asanoyama defeats Meisei – Asanoyama tried hard to get “that” grip set up, but had to settle for a trust down when his body would not comply. Good view of a viable switch to “plan b” from Asanoyama, a real weakness of his. Asanoyama improves to 10-4.