Whew, for a minute there I lost myself. Apologies for not supplying this type of preview yesterday, I was on a red eye that was delayed. It was not fun. It was more fun than being Tsurugisho. At the time of writing, no kyujo have been announced for Day 5. That may change by the time you read this. We’re all doing our best, although whether the same can be said for the san’yaku, I’m not so sure.
We are hearing that there are massive numbers of foreign fans in the crowd at this basho, so if you’re one of those new fans who have just discovered sumo and are trying to figure out what’s going on and googled your way to us, welcome! We have lots of information here for you. And if you have questions, that’s why the comments section is there!
On Day 5 we will get both the Komusubi and Sekiwake showdowns, and a handful of real highlight bouts. In other news, the remaining boys of Miyagino beya are starting to rally and are collectively up to 14-15.
Day 5 Matchups
Takerufuji (4-0) vs Tokihayate (3-1): Remember a couple of days ago when I joked about the Maegashira 17 yusho coming back? Yeah, uh… let’s not get carried away yet, but anyway, Tokihayate is our first Juryo visitor of the basho. He flirted with sekitori status under the name Tokisakae before a change of shikona did the trick and finally got him out of makushita. Don’t tell Shodai, but he might be heyagashira before too long. He has largely looked good in Juryo, although Takerufuji won their only previous meeting and on form it’s tough to tip against the Isegahama man until he meets Onosato at some point in the near future.
Daiamami (0-4) vs Kitanowaka (1-3): Daiamami isn’t going to zenpai unless he goes kyujo, but it wouldn’t be surprising to hear that opponents in need of a win might be licking their lips when they get drawn against him. Kitanowaka hasn’t been as bad as his scoreline suggests, although he has made some poor choices in his approach play. Endo was who he thought he was, but he let him off the hook! Anyway, while my predictions have been in large part accurate, I will swerve on making a call here apart from to say that if Kitanowaka doesn’t win this, then I think both of them are going straight back to Juryo.
Nishikifuji (2-2) vs Endo (2-2): All the headlines (if there were any) would be about Endo’s heroic table turning victory on Day 4, but truthfully a better rikishi would have put Endo away. It looked like he was playing an RPG and summoned some kind of momentary power boost. He’s having serious trouble committing power to ground and making headway in matches against opponents. Nishikifuji hasn’t been very good either and is coming off a fusen-sho, but as these guys are a couple of technicians who have had recent trouble overwhelming opponents, it should be an interesting tactical battle.
Roga (3-1) vs Churanoumi (2-2): Even rivalry at 2 apiece, which I think is a fair reflection of the relatively even level of their current ability. Roga’s going to want this match to take place on the belt, Churanoumi – while he is capable on the belt – is probably going to look to keep him away. Unlike the Daiamami/Kitanowaka match, I would say instead that a win for either of these guys would likely signal that they’re going to stay up. And a kuroboshi won’t be devastating for the loser.
Shonannoumi (3-1) vs Myogiryu (2-2): For some reason Shonannoumi feels a lot more mature in his sumo approach than his 25 years would suggest. Perhaps that’s a reflection of the fact that he’s been in the game for a decade already and so his approach has been refined, quite a lot, over time, by a shisho who has been quite accomplished in recent years at developing products. He did well to stay in the match against Mitakeumi and might need similar stamina against Myogiryu who will probably come out of the traps a bit stronger. I think Shonannoumi is a very narrow favourite for this, having won both previous encounters.
Ryuden (3-1) vs Sadanoumi (3-1): I don’t really like this matchup for Ryuden, although he leads the all time tally 8-7 and has taken the last 2 from the old dog Sadanoumi. If Sadanoumi can get Ryuden wrapped up, this is over, but if Ryuden is able to land a belt grip then he’s looking like he’s feisty enough in this basho to deal with most opponents. In terms of style and application I just like Sadanoumi a little bit better in this contest, but it wouldn’t surprise me for the match to break the other way, either.
Shodai (3-1) vs Mitakeumi (2-2): Where there is a Shodai match to predict, there is danger ahead, so tread carefully. Shodai is clearly in the better form of these two, although I am still burned by his complete collapse against Ichiyamamoto. Hopefully that woke him up. Mitakeumi is of course an all-rounder and would do well to engage an oshi-attack here for two reasons: first, he’s not going to win a stamina battle against Shodai in his current condition, and second, I think Shodai is probably also more able to execute a winning throw against Mitakeumi than vice versa. Mitakeumi should be watching the tape and throwing everything forward, because Ichiyamamoto showed that if Shodai is just going to stand up at the tachiai, then you can make him pay. Shodai is the favourite here, though, in the 34th meeting of the two.
Ichiyamamoto (1-3) vs Kotoshoho (2-2): Kotoshoho has got the feel of a bit of a flat-track bully right now, and that probably suits him down to the ground. Ichiyamamoto has not been short of effort but the finishing has largely been lacking. I think he could blow Kotoshoho away but Kotoshoho is also adept in oshi-zumo and for that reason, I think he’ll be the favourite here. Ichiyamamoto leads the series 6-4, but Kotoshoho has taken 3 of 4 lately.
Onosho (3-1) vs Takayasu (3-1): We know that Onosho is streaky, and I think his day 4 loss might have started a bad streak for him. Both of these guys just got beaten by the better opponent on the day. If Takayasu isn’t physically at it, we know that Onosho has the ability to blast him out with his tachiai, but Takayasu also possesses a tachiai which is good enough to defuse Onosho’s main weapon. This is a fairly even matchup at 5-4 in Onosho’s favour, but Takayasu has looked good enough so far that he should be favourite here.
Hokutofuji (0-4) vs Tamawashi (1-3): The only thing giving me pause right now about writing off Hokutofuji is that he has form for turning around terrible positions in the second week, and he doesn’t look quite as bad as his record suggests. Tamawashi looks like he’s heading for a narrow make-koshi but he’ll eke out enough wins against poor opponents to keep things respectable. If Tamawashi can execute a strong nodowa here then I think he’ll win, but if it’s a straight up oshi-battle between the two, I think strength against strength that Hokutofuji has enough to get off the mark.
Tsurugisho (2-2) vs Gonoyama (2-2): I fully expect this to be a fusen-sho for Gonoyama. In the very unlikely event that Tsurugisho does show up, he’s not going to have enough to deal with Gonoyama’s thrusting attack anyway, after the ugly injury yesterday.
Kinbozan (1-3) vs Onosato (4-0): I don’t expect to see Kinbozan back for this match either. I actually think that would be the worst case for Onosato, because in his current form, he doesn’t really need a day off. Sometimes, you need to keep going and carrying forward with momentum. Again, in either case, Onosato should be 5-0 after this.
Tobizaru (2-2) vs Hiradoumi (2-2): This should be the match of the day. Hiradoumi is putting in some astonishingly high octane performances, and I hope he has enough left in the tank when it’s time to match up against san’yaku opponents. He has a very different style of sumo to Daieisho, but his current approach reminds me a lot of when Tobizaru’s stablemate made his move from joi chancer to san’yaku regular. Tobizaru himself would like to make a similar move, and I think his application has largely been very good in this basho. This is too close to call, and it’s a question of Hiradoumi’s ability to quickly get inside and overwhelm against Tobizaru’s desire to lead him on a merry dance.
Midorifuji (1-3) vs Takanosho (1-3): Both of these guys are in some tough form, but Takanosho pushed the Ozeki all the way on Day 4 and looks to be in decent shape. Midorifuji has won their only previous bout and Takanosho’s relentless forward movement seems like a very good candidate for a Midorifuji katasukashi. That being said, Takanosho looks like he’s up for it this basho, and that’s a very good sign.
Abi (4-0) vs Nishikigi (1-3): Nishikigi has been a bit unfortunate with the opposition since his stunning win on shonichi, but he’s coming up against an opponent who can smell blood in the water right now. Abi will look at Daieisho’s win against Nishikigi has a template for the pusher-thruster to try and blow Nishikigi away. Nishikigi is clearly an intelligent fighter and one does wonder if he’ll be looking at that last bout to try and modify something in his approach for a very similar opponent. But by and large, these guys try to do “their brand of sumo” and if they both do that, Abi should win.
Daieisho (1-3) vs Wakamotoharu (3-1): Daieisho’s decision to informally enter the basho on Day 4 (after three days of being present, but basically absent) is bad news for Wakamotoharu, as Abi exposed his susceptibility to a strong thrusting attack. These guys have split their ten matches evenly, and have even traded wins back and forth in the last eight encounters. Daieisho won the last one, suggesting it’s Wakamotoharu’s turn. Wakamotoharu is in much the better form, but I think Daieisho is a very dangerous opponent for him, and Wakamotoharu’s approach to the tachiai will be very intriguing.
Ura (2-2) vs Kotonowaka (3-1): Kotonowaka has taken 4 out of 6 from Ura, but he will be wary and know what Ura can conjure, especially in front of an Osaka crowd baying for another upset. I have likened Kotonowaka’s recent approach to that of Kisenosato and I think that calm, composed, balance in the face of chaos will serve him well. I don’t think Kotonowaka will give the crowd what they want today, and that’s good news for him to run his score to 4-1.
Takakeisho (3-1) vs Atamifuji (2-2): Takakeisho has taken all three previous matches from Atamifuji. I think he’s starting to look like a decent bet to get his 8 wins and clear kadoban, but I wouldn’t be surprised if things fall apart after that when he starts to see the higher rankers (his second week matchups could be wildly impacted by Terunofuji’s and maybe even Kirishima’s decisions to hang around this basho). Atamifuji is going to be looking at wins like his Day 4 opponent Tobizaru and seeing those as the must-win matchups. Not that going up against Takakeisho is a free hit: Atamifuji can win this, and maybe even should win this, but the Ozeki is showing that even with diminished physicals right now, he’s still very, very good.
Asanoyama (2-2) vs Hoshoryu (3-1): Asanoyama has looked decent and had an absolutely hellish first few days in terms of opponents, but I think Hoshoryu’s got his number. The (current) Ozeki has won all four previous matchups. This will be a yotsu-zumo matchup, and Asanoyama’s match against the Yokozuna showed us that if he’s going to take these guys on at his and their strong point, he’s running a risk as he’s just a bit short of his best right now.
Kirishima (0-4) vs Meisei (2-2): This is a fairly even rivalry with the Ozeki leading by the odd win in 13. Kirishima has won the last four encounters and should be the odds-on favourite, but he’s looked awful so far. Meisei is not a guy who’s going to just give up easily, so this is a question of whether Kirishima can rally and try and go on a run for his kachi-koshi or if this is just a lost basho for him. If it’s the latter case, then he’s probably best to withdraw and take the kadoban tag. He can then look forward to focusing on the tutelage of his soon to be new shisho, the former Kakuryu, whose coaching served him well in the past.
Terunofuji (2-2) vs Oho (1-3): I tell you what, Oho certainly made a go of it against his one-time rival Hoshoryu. I think he’s going to be extremely up for it in his first ever match against Terunofuji, and by extension of that, his first chance to snag a kinboshi. Terunofuji does not physically look to be in yusho-challenging condition. His approach to Meisei wasn’t bad but his body did not appear to be able to execute what his brain was attempting. As a result of that, you’d say he might be an easy mark for the type of pusher-thruster that causes him problems. For the Yokozuna, there is no point in staying in the basho if he can’t challenge to win it. We could get the verdict on that as soon as tomorrow. In the meantime, I do just have a sneaky feeling Terunofuji will pull this one out, even if it’s too close for comfort.