Well, whoever was doing previews yesterday had a bit of a ‘mare, that’s for sure. Oh, wait, it was me.
Back when we had three consistently good Yokozuna and a historically very good Ozeki, Tachiai used to talk about the kadoban twins (normally Goeido and Kotoshogiku, but sometimes Terunofuji in his first Ozeki stint was in there) who always seemed to be kadoban or in danger of being kadoban. I suppose that one good thing about this half-Yokozuna era we find ourselves in now is that we’re limited to one under-performing Ozeki per basho.
Amazingly though, after the upset-laden start to this tournament, we have three Ozeki at 6-2 and who will all fancy their chances of getting back on top of the leaderboard. They have yet to face the rank-and-filers who lead the title challenge, and there may be some twists and turns yet to come in this second week. Still, wouldn’t it be nice if someone could make us dream of a beautiful new white rope?
Maybe that person exists, maybe they’re not even in san’yaku yet.
Day 9 Matches
Myogiryu (3-5) vs Tomokaze (4-4): Old friend Tomokaze is today’s visitor. He’s far removed now from the days when he stormed to the top of the rank and file. Honestly, after what he’s been through with injuries, he’s done remarkably well to get back to where he has, fighting to re-establish himself in the top division. This match, while again a bit early to be a proper exchange bout, is a big opportunity to pull Myogiryu down and pull himself back into the top division. We should be seeing an oshi-zumo bout, if someone’s got the belt then that’s bad news for Tomokaze.
Ryuden (4-4) vs Endo (2-6): What Endo has in his favour here is a massive 7-2 record against Ryuden. Ryuden has flagged a bit over the last few days, Endo has flagged a bit over the last few basho. I think this should actually be a good match, and one that Endo absolutely must win as demotion is nearing.
Churanoumi (4-4) vs Sadanoumi (6-2): Maybe I went a day early on my prediction of Sadanoumi getting upset, as Churanoumi has beaten him all five times they’ve met, and by five different techniques as well. Churanoumi has mostly been solid and dependable in this basho. A win for Sadanoumi, meanwhile, would leave him with a real chance of both a big promotion up the banzuke for May and also some challenging matches in this second week.
Ichiyamamoto (4-4) vs Daiamami (4-4): Well, Daiamami’s unlikely revival continues and his defeat of Shodai was his most impressive yet in the run of four straight victories. This match for me is all about Ichiyamamoto’s ability to keep his balance and ring sense. Ichiyamamoto’s Abi-lite style and mobility means it will be harder for Daiamami to use his big body to box him out, and it’s a match where I can see both guys going for a slap down attempt as their main strategy. Ichiyamamoto has a fairly significant 5-1 advantage in the head-to-head.
Roga (4-4) vs Mitakeumi (6-2): Mitakeumi, who has won their only prior meeting, continues to confound by winning matches without looking all that good. Imagine if he ever got his mojo back! Roga has blown hot and cold and looks like he may be flagging a bit. This will be a good encounter to tell us whether Mitakeumi has rediscovered his killer instinct (something his opponent has been criticised on these pages for lacking), and if I were Mitakeumi, I’d be looking to keep the Russian off the belt.
Kitanowaka (1-7) vs Kotoshoho (3-5): This has been a basho to forget for both of these guys. Someone had to henka Onosho, but there’s not a ton of dignity in it. That tells you where Kotoshoho is at. He’s the favourite here only by virtue of how poor Kitanowaka has been. Assuming they take each other head on, this could be one of those cartoon brawls with all kinds of limbs flying everywhere. That being said, I’d smile if Kitanowaka tried a henka.
Nishikifuji (5-3) vs Takayasu (5-3): Nishikifuji continues to go max-effort, but the more curious thing will be the approach of Takayasu. The veteran will feel he let a win slip out of his hands on nakabi and should have found himself in the 6-2 peloton. These guys have split their four prior matches evenly. I would like to see Takayasu push for double digits, he looks like he still has it in him.
Onosho (5-3) vs Shonannoumi (6-2): Shonannoumi’s wonderful basho continued with a thorough dismantling of hapless Kitanowaka, but this should be another kettle of fish. Onosho will feel let down by falling for the trickery yesterday, as seems to happen to him at least once every basho. I do wonder if the physically imposing Shonnanoumi will look for a slap down attempt in this match. Onosho has looked very good on the whole in this basho (and the prior tournament), but he doesn’t have the benefit of much experience against his opponent: they have split their prior matches evenly, one apiece.
Kinbozan (2-4-2) vs Hokutofuji (1-7): It’s a telling stat about Hokutofuji’s basho that someone like Kinbozan can disappear for half a week, return, and still have a better record than him. Kinbozan returned looking fitter than he was at the start of the basho, although I do also think this match might require more energy from him than yesterday’s victim. Hokutofuji has won both prior meetings, and will look to stave off make-koshi here in what will surely be an oshi-battle.
Shodai (4-4) vs Gonoyama (5-3): These guys have faced each other twice and each come out victorious on one occasion. Shodai continues to disappoint, and I actually wonder at what stage he’s going to be called into action against the Endo’s and Myogiryu’s of the world fighting demotion. Gonoyama has mostly looked good in this basho. I’d like to see Shodai sort himself out but truthfully I’d like to see a win for the hometown kid more, so I’ll go for Gonoyama here.
Tamawashi (2-6) vs Hiradoumi (4-4): Tamawashi took a very nasty spill yesterday and was limping after the match, so the main thing is whether he’s OK. I think, in those circumstances, he’s probably not going to want to see someone who is blazing out of the traps. The onus is really on Hiradoumi to attack here and take advantage of the veteran’s potential unsteady footing.
Oho (3-5) vs Takanosho (3-5): These guys should both feel relatively happy with their tours through the san’yaku, although Takanosho in particular will feel like he let a real scalp slip away yesterday against the Ozeki, even though his approach was again somewhat predictable and played to the Ozeki’s strengths. I wonder how much, if at all, he will carry that mentally forward against a lesser opponent. Takanosho will want both arms in and Oho will want both arms out, so this is one of those classic “whoever executes their brand of sumo, wins” matches. Oho’s beaten Takanosho twice in three prior matchups.
Atamifuji (4-4) vs Meisei (3-5): Surprisingly, here’s a first time meeting of two guys hoping to jostle their way into san’yaku in the second week. Meisei’s win yesterday was huge for his chances of just getting back to a respectable scoreline. Atamifuji has had a tough couple days, but when you are ranked at this level, these are the matches you absolutely have to win if you want to push on to the next level. Can he bounce back?
Ura (3-5) vs Asanoyama (4-4): The push for Nishikigi’s san’yaku slot is incredibly muddy, and we have the Maegashira 3s going at it, then the 2s and here we have the Maegashira 1s matching up. As you can see, none of them have more than 4 or fewer than 3 wins, and it’s technically possible for us to see five guys at 4-5 and one guy at 3-6. That is probably the outcome preferred by Onosato. As for this match, again it seems fairly incredible that these rikishi have met only once, with Asanoyama coming out on top. He still has Abi and potentially Wakamotoharu to face, so will view this as a critical match to win if he wants to take pole position for promotion. Unless Ura views his pushing attack as strong enough (I don’t think it will be), he will need the full bag of tricks here. I would make Asanoyama the favourite, just about.
Abi (6-2) vs Takerufuji (8-0): The best part of the second week is when we start to get the matches with real yusho implications, and the rikishi punching above their weight start to get called up to the big time. In today’s case, we’ve got two guys pulled way up. These are dizzying heights for Takerufuji and I think this is where the party is going to end. Abi was not messing around yesterday in confidently despatching Ura. This is the point in the previous basho where the wheels came off for Onosato, and the only way it gets easier from here for Takerufuji is if he drops out of contention. I’m a little surprised that both of the starlets are pulled up to face san’yaku before facing each other, but that may be an indication of the schedulers belief that they could still be in contention come the final weekend. In any case, a 9th straight win for Takerufuji would be a massive, monster upset.
Onosato (7-1) vs Wakamotoharu (5-3): This probably will not have been a name that Wakamotoharu wanted to see come out of the hat at this stage, given that he still has guys like Asanoyama to deal with and his kachi-koshi status is not settled. It’s a major test of Onosato’s current level. Clearly he is too good for the rank and filers (except Onosho), but he dropped three out of three against san’yaku opponents in January, and all eyes will be looking to see if he can do a job here.
Daieisho (4-4) vs Kotonowaka (6-2): The job for Kotonowaka in this debut Ozeki basho is to get across the line, succeed to his new name, and then he can establish his credentials at the level later. He has done pretty well to this point, keeping himself far out of trouble. Daieisho has looked more vulnerable in this basho than usual, so the Ozeki might feel he’s got a pretty good shot of taking a step closer to kachi-koshi. Kotonowaka leads this series 8-4 and must be considered favourite here, although Daieisho is always dangerous if he is allowed space to power up his thrusting attack. What makes Kotonowaka so good though, is that he normally doesn’t allow it.
Takakeisho (6-2) vs Tobizaru (5-3): Remarkably, here’s another Ozeki that has a losing record against Tobizaru. The Flying Monkey is having another great basho and I think he’s a good bet for another upset here, having beaten Takakeisho 6 times from 11 matchups, and at one point five times consecutively. Tobizaru certainly will lose the odd match where he is just overpowered by a stronger opponent, but he is looking like he refuses to be beaten, and heart counts for a lot. Takakeisho has a lot going for him, but mobility is not one of those things right now.
Midorifuji (3-5) vs Hoshoryu (6-2): Once upon a time, Hoshoryu had issues dealing with Midorifuji, but he’s beaten him five times in a row. The Ozeki has lived dangerously on a few occasions this basho, but he’s been good enough to get the job done. When I look at the matches where Midorifuji has fared the worst, it’s been against big bulky guys like Tsurugisho, Onosato, Kinbozan. He’s been mostly competitive the rest of the time. I think Midorifuji will give Hoshoryu a run for his money especially if he can try to deploy a first katasukashi of the basho, but the Ozeki isn’t really the kind of opponent who finds himself in positions to be vulnerable to that and is still the tip to win.
Kirishima (2-6) vs Nishikigi (1-7): After yesterday’s musubi-no-ichiban which was worthy of the name, we get this clunker. Nishikigi has dropped seven in a row without looking like he might win, and one more loss will rubber stamp his demotion from san’yaku. This is, however, his final san’yaku opponent, so it does get better from here. Kirishima has beaten him 3 times in 4 previous attempts (including a pair of humiliating okuri-kimarite), and looked a bit more up for his latest matches, although certainly had a very timid tachiai against Tobizaru. It’s no good saying “Kirishima must win this” anymore because he’s clearly on his way to kadoban status. With some reluctance, I’ll tip the Ozeki here to get the job done and give himself a fighting chance of playing spoiler this week.
