Nagoya Banzuke Crystal Ball

lksumo Nagoya 2024
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After a bit of a hiatus, the Crystal Ball is back, just in time to attempt to predict the tricky Nagoya banzuke.

The Named Ranks

This should be straightforward. Terunofuji will remain the sole (East) Yokozuna. The result of the final Natsu bout means that O1e Hoshoryu (10-5) will switch positions with O1w Kotozakura (11-4). O2e Takakeisho (0-2-13) will be kadoban, requiring 8 wins in July to save his rank. He’ll move over to the West side, not as a demotion, but to balance Terunofuji on the banzuke now that there are only 3 Ozeki. O2w Kirishima (1-6-8) suffered his second losing record in a row, which means that he’ll fall to Sekiwake, with one shot to regain the Ozeki rank with double-digit wins in Nagoya. A demoted Ozeki customarily occupies the lowest Sekiwake slot, so he’ll be at S2e. S1e and S1w will be occupied, respectively, by S1w Abi (10-5), who successfully defended his rank with his best san’yaku performance to date, and the Natsu champion, K1w Onosato, who forced a promotion with his 12 wins. This means that two Komusubi slots are open; M1w Daieisho (11-4) is a lock for K1e, while K1w should go to M2e Hiradoumi (9-6), with M5w Meisei (10-5) just missing out.

Upper Maegashira

The top rank is easy: Meisei slots in nicely at M1e, and its current occupant, Atamifuji (7-8), who came thisclose to a san’yaku debut, slides over to M1w. What do we do from there? The next winning record belongs to [checks notes] M7w Mitakeumi (8-7), who is really the only candidate for M2e. At M2w, the options are slotting in demoted Sekiwake Wakamotoharu (4-8-3) with a very lenient demotion or pulling up either M8e Takanosho (8-7) or M10e Shonannoumi (9-6). My guess goes with the former option. The choice between very lenient demotions and very generous promotions continues for the next few ranks. I’ve opted to err in the direction of under-demotions, which means that the next 6 slots all go to joi maegashira with losing records: 7-win M3e Takayasu, M4w Ura, and M5e Onosho keep their ranks, while 6-win M2w Gonoyama, M3w Tobizaru, and M4e Oho drop one rank, half a rank, and one and a half ranks, respectively. Given these choices, I have Shonannoumi, Takanosho, and M8w Kotoshoho (8-7) receiving more moderate promotions to M6e, M6w, and M7e, but one could certainly opt for placing any or all of them a lot higher.

Middle Ranks

Here, things fall into place. M11e Sadanoumi (9-6) is a clear choice for M7w, followed by M14e Ryuden (10-5), M14w Oshoma (10-5), and M10w Kinbozan (8-7). Next in line are M9e Tamawashi (7-8) and M9w Shodai (7-8), who could receive half-rank demotions, but I’ve opted to place absent K1e Asanoyama (0-0-15) at M9w instead and give the M9 duo their full one-rank demotions to M10. Not coincidentally, Abi was also ranked M9w in Kyushu 2022 after missing the previous tournament while ranked Komusubi; you may recall that he took that yusho. Asanoyama’s placement might be the biggest wildcard of the banzuke; he could end up a tad higher or as low as M13. Picking up at M11, we have M12e Ichiyamamoto (8-7) on the East and M6w Midorifuji (5-10) on the West, followed by M7e Nishikigi (5-10) at M12e. At M12w, it’s a choice between giving M13w Churanoumi (8-7) his full promotion or keeping the demotion of M11w Hokutofuji (7-8) to one rank; given recent trends favoring wins, I’ve opted for the former, making Hokutofuji the only Makuuchi rikishi to be placed lower than his rank/record combination warrants, albeit by only half a rank. M16w Takarafuji (9-6), the last Makuuchi rikishi with a winning record, takes M13w, allowing us to move on to the Juryo rikishi.

Bottom Ranks

There are 5 rikishi in Juryo who posted records that warrant promotion: the yusho winner and former Sekiwake J6w Wakatakakage (14-1), J3e Endo (12-3), who’ll be making an immediate return after only his 3rd career basho in the second division, J3w Chiyoshoma, who returns after a 4-basho Juryo stint, J5e Kagayaki (11-4), who likewise was last in Makuuchi in September, and J2e Bushozan (9-6), who’s recently been a classic elevator rikishi (too good for Juryo, not good enough for Makuuchi).

Conveniently, 5 top-division incumbents warrant a trip to Juryo. Sadly, one of them is the March champion M6e Takerufuji, whose ankle injury did not heal in time for May. The others are M17e Tsurugisho (3-12), M16e Tomokaze (2-13), M13e Mitoryu (2-9-4) and newcomer M15e Tokihayate (6-9), who lost a de facto demotion playoff to M15w Roga (7-8) on the final day. Two rikishi are on the bubble, but I don’t think they’ll exchange M12w Nishikifuji (5-10) and runner-up J12e Onokatsu (13-2), though one more loss on the part of the former or one more win on the part of the latter might have done it.

So we have to place the 5 Juryo guys plus Roga and Nishikifuji. The rank order among those coming up is as above, Roga should be ahead of Nishikifuji, and Roga can’t be placed any higher than his current rank. This locks in Wakatakakage, Endo and Chiyoshoma at M14e, M14w and M15e. I have Nishikifuji, who is lucky to even stay in the top division, occupying the last M17e rank. Roga could stay at M15w, followed by Kagayaki and Bushozan, or he could be placed at M16e, splitting the Juryo duo, or at M16w, receiving his full demotion. There are fairly recent precedents to resolve this any which way. I’ve tentatively gone with the last option.

Scroll down for the full guess, and let me know what you think in the comments.

Sumo News Update 2024.06.23

Andy Japanese Culture

This weekend there were a couple of news items to update you on. Terutsuyoshi held his retirement ceremony at Kokugikan on Sunday. This event featured an eight-man round robin between non-sekitori from the extended Isegahama-beya. Unfortunately, I am not able to embed this Tweet like I I usually am for other tweets (probably for some silly billionaire-instigated reason) but “Mika_midori0830” shared video of each bout. Satorufuji claimed the yusho against Shinhakuho in the final.

Along with the usual jinku, Terutsuyoshi’s event had performances from singers, a shamisen duo, and even Chinese acrobats. Among those in line to cut his top-knot, Chiyotairyu came and gave him a great big hug while words from Meisei gave him a great big smile. Interviewed by Sakai Ichiro, Terutsuyoshi said that he had told Miyagino-oyakata that he wasn’t going to cry. But Miyagino told him that as people take their turns cutting his hair, he would have flashbacks and be overcome by the emotions. And Terutsuyoshi felt that was true.

Freshly shorn Terutsuyoshi thanked his guests for their support. The new coif sure suits the man, doesn’t it?

Sumo Stateside

Meanwhile, several former rikishi are sporting mawashi in the United States. Out in California a band of wrestlers from the professional and amateur sumo worlds are participating in “All Star Sumo“. The pair of events are headlined by Ichinojo and Hiroki, a former Juryo-ranked rikishi who played Enō’s giant nemesis in the Netflix hit, “Sanctuary”. We hear news from Bradley (crazysocktv) that Hiroki won last night’s tournament and proposed to his girlfriend. Congratulations, Hiroki! Next weekend they will be in San Francisco.

Lastly, you all have heard me for a while now about Konishiki’s Sumo and Sushi events. They wrap up their NYC tour and head down here to DC next weekend. I wanted to share with you all the experience had by the good chaps of the New York Sumo Club. They rolled up at the NYC event with their own mawashi! Oscar Dolan leads the club and he hopped up there with Rolan Vargas and Daniel Douglas.

I really hope the Instagram embed will stay up for a while. The video of their bouts with the Sumo and Sushi rikishi is below. What was not in this video…but hopefully might have been captured by others at the show or by a Sumo and Sushi film crew, were some pointers given to them by Konishiki himself as he critiqued their shiko, suriashi, and butsukari.

I think the hands-on approach they got there is a key thing that we need more of here. It’s why I’m always excited to see Gagamaru at the events in Texas and our amateur wrestlers suiting up and participating in keiko with the universities and even with some of the pro stables when y’all are in Japan. Trying to guess at what is going on and replicate it here is one thing. Actually getting tips is quite the other. I mean having Konishiki tell Meccha and Otani, “oh, move him this way or that way.” That’s one hell of an experience.

If these go to the next level, beyond introducing people to sumo as spectators, and instead actually advancing sumo in practice, that’s incredibly cool. And that is what gets me more and more excited about these events. More of these professionally hosted events are important because it will draw in even more people. There are those folks (lots of those folks) who remain on the sidelines and who are hesitant to get involved when it’s a few friends in a backyard or even a rented hall with an impromptu dohyo. But those folks might actually get the confidence and have the assurance that it is (relatively) safe AND fun.

I mean, it is a combat sport but not everyone is ready to face an Abi-like barrage of tsuppari or get thrown on Day 1 or Day 10 or Day 110. Landing on whatever dohyo they had set up at the Sumo and Sushi event was a hell of a lot better than when I fell off the ladder in the backyard and landed on that rock. It was a bit of a shock to find myself tumbling through the air. When I landed, I got up, checked myself to make sure I was intact, and then I felt like the baby dinosaur from that 90s sitcom Dinosaurs. “AGAIN!” And when guys like Konishiki set up a safe environment and show you like they did for the NY Sumo Club, “No, no, no. Do it this way,” it starts to move that needle a bit more…in my humble opinion. I mean, let’s face it. There are very few sports or physical activities out there that promise to be as body-positive as sumo. But no one wants to be left, like Takayasu, to crawl himself over to the big wheel chair.

Sumo News Update 2024.06.17

Andy Japanese Culture , , , , ,

There were a couple of items on the sumo calendar over the past week. The first item was the Kickoff of Konishiki’s Sumo+Sushi tour in the United States! He hosted several shows over the weekend in New York City and will stay there for next weekend as well. Due to the success, several shows have been added there, next weekend. From NYC, the troupe will head down to DC for shows June 28-30, Nashville on July 12-14 and up to Chicago on July 19-21. Click here to re-read my rundown of last year’s experience. Getting up on the dohyo was absolutely amazing, as was my sudden barrel roll across it. I was probably very lucky their dais was not made of Arakita clay.

Some of you may be questioning whether this is news worthy. Well, aside from the fact that Konishiki is bringing a sumo experience to the States, this event includes real sumo wrestlers. To me, that is news worthy of itself. While the participation of former Makuuchi wrestlers Takagenji and Daikiho’s was announced ahead of time, Otani’s role was a surprise. He may have been a last-minute stand-in for Chiyonoshin but others from last year’s crew (including Tooyama) are not on this tour. Thanks to Chanko_Mattun on Twitter for the screen grab above because Otani’s appearance over here seems to have made the news over there, too.

And back in Japan, the Kyokai participated in another PR event. In last week’s update, we saw the Fukuoka PR event. This time, five wrestlers (Atamifuji, Midorifuji, Abi, Onosato, and Tobizaru) traveled over to Nagoya for a Sports-themed expo of sorts. Watch the entire two-hour show here on the Kyokai’s YouTube channel.

This event was shared with the Dolphins basketball team. I kind of think a chance was missed here for a three-on-three tournament with the fans or h-o-r-s-e with the pros. If you ever watch a sumo “match day” from the start, you will recognize the Radio Taiso routine here. There was a bit of a shoot-around but the big event was the dance off that featured Atamifuji and Midorifuji busting a move…without music. The video here doesn’t have rights to the music, so you don’t hear the music here. Wow, the Kyokai takes this rights stuff seriously, no?

Sumo News Update 2024.06.10

Andy Chiyonokuni (千代の国)

Despite no Jungyo, there were a few news items of note over the weekend.

Chiyonokuni Danpatsushiki

Chiyonokuni marked his retirement from active sumo and new career as a coach, Sanoyama, on Saturday at Kokugikan. Along with the customary jinku, hair-styling demonstration and shokkiri, we got his final butsukari keiko with Kokonoe-beya stablemates, Chiyonoo, Chiyosakae, Chiyomaru and Chiyoshoma.

The butsukari was done instead of the planned final bout with his older brother, former Makushita-ranked Chiyonoshin. A touching moment there as the name of his brother, Sawada Kensho, was called over the PA system to applause from the gathered audience, and tears of Chiyonokuni. Sawada had taken ill in April and remains hospitalized in serious condition. There was a performance by singer and hip-hop act, SEAMO, as well as food sales in support of the Ishikawa earthquake survivors. Chiyooga (guinea-pig for the hair-style demonstration) closed things out with the bow-twirling ceremony.

Kyushu Basho PR Event

Footage of the PR event is available at the Kyokai’s YouTube channel. The event featured Q&A from five fan faves: Hiradoumi, Shodai, Ura, Ichiyamamoto and — checks notes, Sadanoumi. After about an hour of patiently waiting the crowd was released, in a single file line, to sate their need to rub the sumo wrestler’s Buddha bellies.

Kotoshoho Wedding

Kotoshoho got married and the reception turned into a high-school reunion, of sorts. Rikishi (and several oyakata) of the Saitama-Sakae Sumo Club got together and posed for a great picture. We have guys from Sakae O.G. Shikoroyama-oyakata (Homosho), through Takakeisho, to Goeido, Kotozakura, and younger brother Kototebakari up on the dais.