After a bit of a hiatus, the Crystal Ball is back, just in time to attempt to predict the tricky Nagoya banzuke.

The Named Ranks

This should be straightforward. Terunofuji will remain the sole (East) Yokozuna. The result of the final Natsu bout means that O1e Hoshoryu (10-5) will switch positions with O1w Kotozakura (11-4). O2e Takakeisho (0-2-13) will be kadoban, requiring 8 wins in July to save his rank. He’ll move over to the West side, not as a demotion, but to balance Terunofuji on the banzuke now that there are only 3 Ozeki. O2w Kirishima (1-6-8) suffered his second losing record in a row, which means that he’ll fall to Sekiwake, with one shot to regain the Ozeki rank with double-digit wins in Nagoya. A demoted Ozeki customarily occupies the lowest Sekiwake slot, so he’ll be at S2e. S1e and S1w will be occupied, respectively, by S1w Abi (10-5), who successfully defended his rank with his best san’yaku performance to date, and the Natsu champion, K1w Onosato, who forced a promotion with his 12 wins. This means that two Komusubi slots are open; M1w Daieisho (11-4) is a lock for K1e, while K1w should go to M2e Hiradoumi (9-6), with M5w Meisei (10-5) just missing out.

Upper Maegashira

The top rank is easy: Meisei slots in nicely at M1e, and its current occupant, Atamifuji (7-8), who came thisclose to a san’yaku debut, slides over to M1w. What do we do from there? The next winning record belongs to [checks notes] M7w Mitakeumi (8-7), who is really the only candidate for M2e. At M2w, the options are slotting in demoted Sekiwake Wakamotoharu (4-8-3) with a very lenient demotion or pulling up either M8e Takanosho (8-7) or M10e Shonannoumi (9-6). My guess goes with the former option. The choice between very lenient demotions and very generous promotions continues for the next few ranks. I’ve opted to err in the direction of under-demotions, which means that the next 6 slots all go to joi maegashira with losing records: 7-win M3e Takayasu, M4w Ura, and M5e Onosho keep their ranks, while 6-win M2w Gonoyama, M3w Tobizaru, and M4e Oho drop one rank, half a rank, and one and a half ranks, respectively. Given these choices, I have Shonannoumi, Takanosho, and M8w Kotoshoho (8-7) receiving more moderate promotions to M6e, M6w, and M7e, but one could certainly opt for placing any or all of them a lot higher.

Middle Ranks

Here, things fall into place. M11e Sadanoumi (9-6) is a clear choice for M7w, followed by M14e Ryuden (10-5), M14w Oshoma (10-5), and M10w Kinbozan (8-7). Next in line are M9e Tamawashi (7-8) and M9w Shodai (7-8), who could receive half-rank demotions, but I’ve opted to place absent K1e Asanoyama (0-0-15) at M9w instead and give the M9 duo their full one-rank demotions to M10. Not coincidentally, Abi was also ranked M9w in Kyushu 2022 after missing the previous tournament while ranked Komusubi; you may recall that he took that yusho. Asanoyama’s placement might be the biggest wildcard of the banzuke; he could end up a tad higher or as low as M13. Picking up at M11, we have M12e Ichiyamamoto (8-7) on the East and M6w Midorifuji (5-10) on the West, followed by M7e Nishikigi (5-10) at M12e. At M12w, it’s a choice between giving M13w Churanoumi (8-7) his full promotion or keeping the demotion of M11w Hokutofuji (7-8) to one rank; given recent trends favoring wins, I’ve opted for the former, making Hokutofuji the only Makuuchi rikishi to be placed lower than his rank/record combination warrants, albeit by only half a rank. M16w Takarafuji (9-6), the last Makuuchi rikishi with a winning record, takes M13w, allowing us to move on to the Juryo rikishi.

Bottom Ranks

There are 5 rikishi in Juryo who posted records that warrant promotion: the yusho winner and former Sekiwake J6w Wakatakakage (14-1), J3e Endo (12-3), who’ll be making an immediate return after only his 3rd career basho in the second division, J3w Chiyoshoma, who returns after a 4-basho Juryo stint, J5e Kagayaki (11-4), who likewise was last in Makuuchi in September, and J2e Bushozan (9-6), who’s recently been a classic elevator rikishi (too good for Juryo, not good enough for Makuuchi).

Conveniently, 5 top-division incumbents warrant a trip to Juryo. Sadly, one of them is the March champion M6e Takerufuji, whose ankle injury did not heal in time for May. The others are M17e Tsurugisho (3-12), M16e Tomokaze (2-13), M13e Mitoryu (2-9-4) and newcomer M15e Tokihayate (6-9), who lost a de facto demotion playoff to M15w Roga (7-8) on the final day. Two rikishi are on the bubble, but I don’t think they’ll exchange M12w Nishikifuji (5-10) and runner-up J12e Onokatsu (13-2), though one more loss on the part of the former or one more win on the part of the latter might have done it.

So we have to place the 5 Juryo guys plus Roga and Nishikifuji. The rank order among those coming up is as above, Roga should be ahead of Nishikifuji, and Roga can’t be placed any higher than his current rank. This locks in Wakatakakage, Endo and Chiyoshoma at M14e, M14w and M15e. I have Nishikifuji, who is lucky to even stay in the top division, occupying the last M17e rank. Roga could stay at M15w, followed by Kagayaki and Bushozan, or he could be placed at M16e, splitting the Juryo duo, or at M16w, receiving his full demotion. There are fairly recent precedents to resolve this any which way. I’ve tentatively gone with the last option.

Scroll down for the full guess, and let me know what you think in the comments.