Tochinoshin to Face Hakuho on Day 12!

lksumo Natsu Basho 2018

Not sure what the schedule makers are thinking, but arguably the highlight bout of the basho will take place well before the final weekend, on Day 12. I’m surprised, as this would make a lot more sense as a Day 14 bout, especially with Hakuho yet to face Ichinojo. Anyway, even if tomorrow’s matches don’t alter the yusho race, this one on Thursday is certain to.

In other matches of note, Ikioi takes his turn in the joi against Kakuryu, and a lot of rikishi mass will be on the dohyo when Ichinojo faces Kotoshogiku.

Natsu State of Play, Day 10

lksumo Natsu Basho 2018

We are deep enough into the basho to resume this series of posts that look at where things stand and what the various outcomes are likely to be.

The Yusho Race

Barring something really unexpected, this should come down to the two Yokozuna, both 9-1, and Sekiwake Tochinoshin, 10-0. The trio will have round-robin matches on Days 13, 14 and 15. The most likely order of the bouts is Kakuryu vs. Tochinoshin on Day 13, Hakuho vs. Tochinoshin on Day 14, and of course the Yokozuna face-off on senshuraku. Of the three, Tochinoshin has the easiest remaining schedule outside the round robin, with only maegashira opponents left to face. He starts with Kotoshogiku tomorrow, most likely followed by Shodai on Day 12 before he takes on the Yokozuna pair. Hakuho still has Ichinojo on his dance card, probably on Day 12, while Kakuryu has both Ichinojo and (tomorrow) Mitakeumi.

The San’yaku

I’m going to disagree with Bruce and say that Tochinoshin is a near-lock for Ozeki promotion with 11 wins, and a mortal lock with 12 or more, regardless of “win quality.” His promotion would open up a Sekiwake slot, and Endo’s likely demotion (unless he somehow wins out) would open up a Kumusubi slot. Mitakeumi needs one more win to move back up to Sekiwake, and after facing Kakuryu tomorrow, has Ichinojo and three maegashira opponents left on his schedule. Ichinojo needs two victories to lock down his rank (and one to stay in San’yaku), and has a harder path, with both Yokozuna still on his schedule.

Should two Komusubi slots open up, as seems likely, the two leading contenders for them are currently Ikioi and, wait for it, none other than Abi! Close behind in the race for promotion, should either man falter, are Shodai and Kotoshogiku. These four rikishi have clearly been the class of the upper maegashira ranks.

The Line Between Makuuchi  and Juryo

Unlike the mess at Haru, there is a better match this basho between the Makuuchi rikishi likely to warrant demotion and Juryo men likely to earn promotion. Sadly, Aminishiki is nearly a lock to go back down to Juryo. Ishiura needs to start winning, and fast, if he is to avoid joining him there. He probably needs to win 4 out of 5 to survive. The next demotion candidate is the other elder statesman, Takekaze, although he is in a virtual tie with Arawashi for that dubious honor. The two face off tomorrow, with the winner getting a big leg up in the race for survival. Other rikishi who are multiple victories short of safety are Tochiozan, Daiamami, and Sadanoumi, while several others can clinch a top-division stay with one more win.

Down in Juryo, there are three strong promotion candidates: J2 Kotoeko, who may have already done enough and would clinch promotion with one more victory, erstwhile Makuuchi rising star J1 Onosho, fighting his way back from injury, who needs one more win to secure his return to the top division, and J4 Meisei, who, like Kotoeko, is looking to make his Makuuchi debut.

Natsu Day 11 Preview

Bruce H Abi (阿炎), Daishomaru, Endo (遠藤), Hakuho (白鵬), Hokutōfuji (北勝富士), Ichinojo (逸ノ城), Ikioi (勢), Kagayaki (輝), Kakuryu (鶴竜), Kotoshogiku (琴奨菊), Kyokutaisei, Mitakeumi(御嶽海), Natsu Basho 2018, Nishikigi, Shohozan, Shōdai (正代直也), Takakeishō (貴景勝), Takarafuji (宝富士), Tamawashi (玉鷲), Tochinoshin (栃ノ心), Tochiozan (栃煌山), Yoshikaze (嘉風) , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Tochinoshin Raids The Vending Machine

Ready or not, here comes act 3! This is where we sort the winners from losers, and hand some hard-working rikishi the Emperor’s cup. Right now the cup is Tochinoshin’s to lose, and the only way this is competitive is if someone gets dirt on the undefeated man on an Ozeki run. That Ozeki run is looking more likely from a numbers standpoint. The only question so far is the “quality” of the wins.

Some fans and readers have very passionate positions on this, so I will mention up front that I am an armchair sumo fan living in Texas. I am not a member of the YDC, I don’t look like Colonel Sanders, and I have never been a holder of elder stock in the NSK. So my opinions count for exactly ZERO in the sumo world.

As I mentioned in the podcast, there is a means by which Tochinoshin might reach double digits, but be declared “not quite there yet” in terms of Ozeki. It all comes down to who he beats. He has yet to face any Ozeki this tournament (sorry, fresh out) or any Yokozuna (they are on the plan). But a shiroboshi from either of them would likely remove that as a possible criticism. Of course a yusho win would assure promotion.

I would also point out that to this date, Tochinoshin has never beaten Yokozuna Hakuho. Were he to accomplish that (and Tochinoshin is looking mighty genki right now), it would mark a turning point in both men’s careers, in my humble opinion. Tochinoshin is also 2-21 vs Yokozuna Kakuryu. One of those wins came last tournament, and was Kakuryu’s only loss. Clearly Tochinoshin as a big wall to climb, but I think at this point, he is at peak performance and more than ready to challenge the top men in the sport.

Natsu Leaderboard

Leader – Tochinoshin
Chasers – Kakuryu, Hakuho
Hunter – Chiyonokuni

5 Matches Remain.

What We Are Watching Day 11

Gagamaru vs Kyokutaisei – Planet Gagamaru orbits into Makuuchi for a day. He is already make-koshi so this match may just be some kind of battle-reunion for Kyokutaisei, who needs one more win for a kachi-koshi. Kyokutaisei holds a 4-2 career lead.

Nishikigi vs Hokutofuji – Honestly, what the hell sumo world. Hokutofuji is hopefully going to get completely checked out by a neuro-medicine specialist and cleared for combat before he returns to the dohyo. If the sumo world thought there was trouble with a medical incident on the dohyo during jungyo, let there be some poor fellow have a stroke, a seizure, and aneurism or even convulse and die right there on the dohyo. No amount of salt will purify it again. I want to see Nishikigi go kachi-koshi by fusensho, thanks.

Sadanoumi vs Kagayaki – Both men still within reach of a winning record for Natsu, both of them fairly evenly matched. Sadanoumi looked very good in his day 10 match against Arawashi, and Kagayaki looks like he might be losing focus / running out of steam. They are 4-3 career, with a slight edge to Sadanoumi.

Yoshikaze vs Tochiozan – Both of these storied veterans have seen better days, both come in in some state of disrepair. Both of them 5-5, both of them wanting to secure a winning record. For some fans, it’s kind of a tough match to watch. We hate to see our heroes fade.

Takakeisho vs Takarafuji – Takakeisho is starting to look a bit better as the tournament goes forward, and it’s a great time to pair him up against Takarafuji. Takarafuji is very careful, forceful and under control. Takakeisho, when he is on his sumo, is a rippling vortex of conflicting force vectors, most of which he is going to transmit through your body. I am eager to see what he does with the very stable Takarafuji. Takakeisho won both their prior matches, but Takakeisho is not quite up to full power.

Daishomaru vs Ikioi – Winner gets kachi-koshi. Ikioi has had a bit of a rough ride with Mitakeumi on day 10, but I think he is a good match for Daishomaru right now. Ikioi still seems to be very stiff, in pain and moving with difficulty every match.

Shohozan vs Abi – Shohozan has a pair of massive arms. But note they are actually a bit short. Abi on the other hand has shown just how useful his near cartoon like reach can be. This is underscored that Shohozan has yet to win a match from Abi. It’s just possible that Abi might go kachi-koshi at Maegashira 2, which would mean a second basho in the job for Abi, and frankly would further elevate his profile to his growing base of fans around the world.

Tamawashi vs Endo – Loser of this one make-koshi. Tamawashi and Endo are very evenly matched across the board, and this has the potential of being an outstanding bit of sumo. Tamawashi will try to stay mobile, and I would look for Endo to go for a shallow grip straight off the tachiai. He will take a couple of fierce blows to get his grip, but if he can hold, he will control the match.

Chiyotairyu vs Ichinojo – Day 10 saw Ichinojo once again summon overwhelming strength against Shodai. So much so that he seems to simply push Shodai away like an empty udon bowl that could no longer hold his interest. Chiyotairyu likes to win at the tachiai with speed, force and power. Frankly Ichinojo might actually feel that, or he may be focus solely on checking the crowd for wolves. History for the two of them is an even split of 2-2.

Tochinoshin vs Kotoshogiku – Former Ozeki Kotoshogiku, aka the Kyushu Bulldozer, has a lot of frustration to discharge. He faces off against the man who would be Ozeki, who is looking like the strongest, most energetic man in sumo today. Kotoshogiku holds a 24-7 advantage over Tochinoshin, but in the last few tournaments, it’s been Tochinoshin who prevails. Tochinoshin will try to go chest to chest early, and that is just fine with Kotoshogiku. Kotoshogiku is looking stronger and healthier this tournament than he has in a while, so the hug-n-chug might actually overpower Tochinoshin. We know that Tochinoshin is strong enough to lift Kotoshogiku over his head and twirl him like a button, but Kotoshogiku has a surprising portion of his body weight below his mawashi, making his center of mass difficult to manipulate. This will either be a roaring match of the day, or a complete snooze fest. Double points if Tochinoshin pulls a henka.

Shodai vs Hakuho – Shodai is having a good basho, but Hakuho is getting himself amped up to stop Tochinoshin, and claim his 41st yusho. So Shodai is a bit of a warm up. But just a bit. There is that nagging problem of the one time Shodai beat him, so Hakuho will be on his guard, and hopefully not do anything too exotic just for the fun of it.

Kakuryu vs Mitakeumi – Not really sure what to say here. Kakuryu and his henka on day 10 was a ridiculous surprise, which he beclowned himself. I am sure he has and will catch a lot of grief over that. He is 3-3 against Mitakeumi, who copes well with Kakuryu’s reactive style.