What’s at Stake on the Final Weekend

lksumo Aki Basho 2022

Andy has questions:

Might Wakatakakage force a third Sekiwake slot to open up? Who will be demoted, who will earn promotion? Does anyone want to be Komusubi in Nagoya?

We’re here for (some) answers!

Yokozuna/Ozeki

Yokozuna Hoshoryu (10-3) did a credible job of staying in the yusho race, and earned his “Yokozuna kachi-koshi” (10+ wins; a term coined by Harumafuji). Hopefully, his physical condition can continue to improve and he can mount a stronger challenge to Onosato in July, when the latter will of course join him at the top rank. Ozeki Kotozakura (8-5) has avoided kadoban, so we are guaranteed at least three Y/O on the banzuke through September.

Sanyaku

Daieisho and Kirishima will be sekiwake again in July, as today’s loss should have ended any faint hopes of promotion for the former, while the latter has to really rue his 8-7 in March. With one more win, komusubi Wakatakakage (10-3) would force an extra slot and join them; he is 3-0 against tomorrow’s opponent, Hiradoumi. Komusubi Takayasu (4-9) is out. So we’ll have either one or two open slots, with two looking a lot more likely. M1e Wakamotoharu (6-7) would claim the first available spot by winning out, but is out of the running with one more loss. The other leading contender is M2e Abi (7-6), who needs one more win for his kachi-koshi; he should be a lock for an available slot with a 9-6, and that may even be enough to force an extra slot if WTK loses out and his brother wins out (though that’s 6 bouts that all need to go a certain way). At 8-7, Abi could conceivably get passed by M6e Oshoma (8-5) or M8e Onokatsu (9-4) if they win out, and that duo would then also be in the lead if WMH and Abi both finish make-koshi. M7e Hakuoho (8-5) and M9e Aonishiki (9-4) still have a shot if a lot of results go their way. I haven’t run through all the permutations, but there might be vanishingly unlikely scenarios in which M3w Hiradoumi (6-7) or maybe even M8w Kinobozan (8-5) could end up at komusubi by winning out.

Division Exchanges

I’ve covered what we know about Juryo <-> Makushita in a previous post. What about Makuuchi <-> Juryo? On the top-division side, M18e Tochitaikai’s (3-10) debut will end after a single basho. M17e Tamashoho (4-9) is set to join him unless he wins out and a lot of other results go his way. M15w Shonannoumi (4-9) is in only slightly better shape. Others still looking for a win or two to ensure a stay are M11w Shishi (3-10), M15e Ryuden (5-8), and M16w Nishikigi (6-7 after a 5-0 start).

In the second division, J1w Kusano (11-2), who arguably should have been promoted last time after his 14-1 yusho from the bottom of the division, is leaving no doubt this time. His sole chaser J5w Wakaikari (10-3) has also likely done enough for a top-division debut, and one more win will make that a certainty. J2e Hidenoumi (8-5) and J1e Mitakeumi (7-6) each need one more win for an undeniable promotion case. The J7 duo of Tomokaze and Kotoeiho, both 9-4, must win out and hope for favorable results elsewhere to have a shot. Tomorrow, we’ll get Mitakeumi vs. Tomokaze and Hidenoumi vs. Kotoeiho.

Makushita Yusho, and Promotion Race, Day 13

lksumo Aki Basho 2022

The title decider between Ms3e Otsuji and Ms39w Fukuzaki was quick but competitive. Otsuji won the tachiai and pushed Fukuzaki back. The March debutant moved sideways and grabbed Otsuji’s arm, pulling and then pushing him to the tawara. Otsuji rallied and pushed Fukuzaki across the ring, where the latter tried one final deflection maneuver. This glanced off Otsuji though, and exposed Fukuzaki’s back to his opponent, who quickly capitalized, winning by okuridashi. So Otsuji will be making an immediate return to Juryo, where he’ll hope to improve on his 5-10 March debut. He will be taking the place vacated by absent Wakanosho. Otsuji is the first Juryo dropout to immediately claim the Makushita yusho since Tokihayate did it exactly two years ago.

After Otsuji, things get murky in the promotion race. The remaining contenders are Ms4e Ishizaki, Ms4w Kotokuzan, and Ms5e Kyokukaiyu, all 4-2. Everyone else in the promotion zone is make-koshi after both Dewanoryu and Kitanowaka lost to Juryo opponents. So the exchanges will come down to who among the remaining trio can win their final bout, and how many demotable records there are in Juryo. Kyokukaiyu fights Ms8 Nishinoryu tomorrow; he must win to potentially avoid being last in the promotion queue and have any realistic chance of promotion. The Ms4 duo are being saved for Day 15 exchange bouts against the two most-endangered Juryo incumbents. J14w Mudoho (5-8) is set to be one of these; the other will come from among J10w Hatsuyama (4-9), J13w Daiamami (6-7), J13e Miyanokaze (6-7), and J12w Nabatame (6-7), depending on Day 14 results. I’ll give my best guess for what is likely to happen in my usual post-basho wrap-up post.

Natsu 2025: Day Thirteen

Andy Natsu 2025, Natsu Basho

NHK videos are here: Juryo, Makuuchi Part I and Part II.

Three of the lower division titles were determined today. Will the Makuuchi yusho be won on Day 13, as well? Kusano is going up and he defeated Oshoumi today. Kotoeiho prevented Mitakeumi from sealing his return to the top division. The former Ozeki will face Tomokaze tomorrow to try again. Wakaikari won his battle with Tohakuryu and likely earned promotion, as well. Hat tip to Herbern for the correction.

Makuuchi Action

Shonannoumi (4-9) defeated Kotoshoho (6-2-5). As Kotoshoho approached, Shonannoumi shifted laterally along the tawara and shoved Kotoshoho down. Gunbai Shonannoumi. Mono-ii. Had Shonnanoumi gone out first? No. The call was confirmed. Tsukiotoshi.

Takanosho (8-5) defeated Ryuden (5-8). Takanosho pulled Ryuden’s nodowa away and kept him off his belt with tsuppari. Takanosho pushed him out of the ring with a final shove. Oshidashi.

Kayo (7-6) defeated Atamifuji (7-6). Kayo drove Atamifuji straight back to the edge, where Atamifuji tried a last gasp slap down. Kayo shoved Atamifuji out before he was shoved down. Yorikiri.

Endo (8-5) defeated Tochitaikai (3-10). Tochitaikai attempted a slapdown but couldn’t finish. Endo decided to demonstrate proper technique. While Tochitaikai pressed forward with tsuppari, Endo shifted left and slapped Tochitaikai down. Hatakikomi.

Shodai (4-9) defeated Tamashoho (4-9). Shodai took a lot of abuse from Tamashoho and pressed forward. Tamashoho shifted gears from tsuppari to a slapdown attempt. Shodai powered his way through and shoved Tamashoho from the ring, and into Juryo. Yorikiri.

Meisei (8-5) defeated Roga (7-6). Meisei evaded Roga’s slapdown attack and throw attempt, grabbed Roga’s right hand and flung him completely off the dohyo. Tottari.

Midorifuji (4-9) defeated Nishikigi (6-7). Midorifuji got his katasukashi hold but Nishikigi captured his hand with his arm and tried to pull Midorifuji over the edge with his arm lodged in Nishikigi’s armpit. Thankfully Midorifuji was able to rescue his arm before it was snapped off and shoved Nishikigi out from behind. Okuridashi.

Sadanoumi (9-4) defeated Kinbozan (8-5). Sadanoumi really impressed me today. He took a battering from Kinbozan’s tsuppari but managed to get inside and lock on with a migi-yotsu hold. He tried to yank Kinbozan back but Kinbozan’s footwork prevented a throw. So, Sadanoumi chugged forward and forced Kinbozan out the old-fashioned way. Yorikiri.

Onokatsu (9-4) defeated Tokihayate (6-7). Onokatsu battered Tokihayate with tsuppari to keep him off his belt but then he drove forward and got a migi-yotsu grip to finish him off. Yorikiri.

Shishi (3-10) defeated Churanoumi (3-10). This was a very entertaining, back-and-forth oshi-tsuki battle. Both men tried throws and feints, shifts in direction, slapdowns…a kitchen sink was seen lobbed across the dohyo. Shishi finally seized Churanoumi and forced him out. Both men fell off the dohyo and landed on a woman in the second row, wearing a bright yellow-green kimono. Kimedashi.

Aonishiki (9-4) defeated Hakuoho (8-5). Aonishiki hammered Hakuoho with tsuppari, then grabbed his belt with a solid right and drove him from the ring. Yorikiri.

Halftime

Tamawashi (5-8) defeated Chiyoshoma (4-9). Tamawashi’s tsuppari was too much as he blasted Chiyoshoma from the ring. Oshidashi.

Gonoyama (4-9) defeated Tobizaru (6-7). Gonoyama pressed Tobizaru to the edge, where Tobizaru found resistance at the bales. Gonoyama wasn’t having any of it, rotated and slammed Tobizaru to the ground. Tobizaru limped back down the hanamichi. We’ll keep an eye out for news on the condition of his right foot/ankle. Tsukiotoshi.

Hiradoumi (6-7) defeated Abi (7-6). Hiradoumi hit Abi so hard at the tachiai, he had to wrap him up. Abi tried to yank Hiradoumi to the side with a kotenage but Hiradoumi bulldozed through, keeping his body low, and forced Abi out. Yorikiri.

Oho (5-8) defeated Ura (3-10). Oho kept Ura at bay with tsuppari and then pulled and slapped him down. Hatakikomi.

Takerufuji (5-8) defeated Wakamotoharu (6-7). Takerufuji slammed into Wakamotoharu and pressured him back to the bales. Wakamotoharu tried to twist him down at the edge but Takerufuji pressed him out first. Yorikiri.

Sanyaku

Wakatakakage (10-3) defeated Asakoryu (9-4). Wakatakakage had no issues bulling forward and forcing Asakoryu from the ring. Oshidashi.

Takayasu (4-9) defeated Ichiyamamoto (4-9). After a lengthy grapple, Ichiyamamoto launched into Takayasu with a nodowa, then he tried a kotenage. Takayasu shifted to his left and pushed Ichiyamamoto down. Hikiotoshi.

Kirishima (10-3) defeated Oshoma (8-5). Kirishima hidari-yotsu. Kirishima powered into Oshoma and drove him from the ring. It wasn’t effortless but it was efficient. Yorikiri.

Onosato (13-0) defeated Kotozakura (8-4). Powerful tachiai. Kotozakura grabbed for Onosato’s right arm but Onosato shrugged him off. Onosato pressed forward and drove Kotozakura from the ring. The Ishikawa watch party erupted in cheers. Yorikiri.

Hoshoryu (10-3) defeated Daieisho (9-4). Daieisho hit Hoshoryu harder than I’ve ever seen him hit anyone. But Hoshoryu adjusted well, pulled on Daieisho’s right arm, almost pulling him out of the ring. He then wrapped Daieisho up and drove through the ring. Yorikiri.

Wrap-up

Onosato has not only won his fourth title. He has won his second in a row, at the rank of Ozeki, meaning he will be promoted to Yokozuna at the end of this tournament. It has been quite a year. We started with a lot of hype around Kotozakura, after his yusho in Kyushu. The shin-Ozeki had a “rough” tournament with a 9-6 record, almost seen as a disappointment in some corners of sumo fandom. “Oh, but it’s not even an Ozeki kachi-koshi.”

But the fact remains Onosato has never won fewer than nine bouts in any tournament. This year, he kept getting better. First, it was ten wins at Hatsu where we all saw Hoshoryu win the yusho and Yokozuna promotion. Then twelve in Osaka. Now, with 13 (and still counting) back in Ryogoku, Onosato has realized his destiny and will become the 75th Yokozuna.

This feels like an era-defining moment. While Hoshoryu’s victory led to a real debate about whether his jun-yusho/yusho would be a promotable record, Onosato’s consecutive yusho leaves no such doubt…and we’re not even finished with the tournament.

That’s right, Andy, let’s get back to the action, please.

Onosato will fight Daieisho tomorrow and Hoshoryu will fight Kotozakura in the musubi-no-ichiban. Hakuoho will come back up and fight Kirishima for some unknown reason and Wakatakakage will fight Hiradoumi.

Hoshoryu’s victory over Daieisho earned his important 10th win and likely put the final dagger in Daieisho’s presumptive Ozeki run. Daieisho and Kirishima might both be able to use this tournament as a first leg of future yusho runs, depending on how they do in Nagoya. It would be very interesting if either (or both) earn promotion after Aki. Conceivably, if they were to win out, I suppose there could be talk of Ozeki promotion in Nagoya but that would require extraordinary results, like what we’re seeing from Onosato here.

Might Wakatakakage force a third Sekiwake slot to open up? Who will be demoted, who will earn promotion? Does anyone want to be Komusubi in Nagoya? I mean, right now the leaders for the roles are Oshoma and Hakuoho and they’re not even in the joi! I’m sure we’ll have overpromotions and underpromotions galore. Sometimes you want to watch the clusterf*** — get some commentary, dissect the ins-and-outs. This one may be one to turn away; let them do their thing and get it over with.

OK. So, in closing, Andy is sleepy and delirious, as you can probably tell. Regardless, I want you to keep in mind that you will probably want to watch for news after the tournament is over about our new Yokozuna. But don’t forget that we also anticipate developments regarding Hakuho and the reopening of his stable to come with the retirement of Isegahama. Someone will inherit that stable…will it be Terunofuji or Homarefuji? Will Terunofuji go out on his own? Will they allow Hakuho back out of the dog house? So many questions…

Natsu 2025: Day Twelve

Andy Natsu 2025, Natsu Basho ,

Your NHK videos are here: Juryo, Makuuchi Part I and Part II.

Twelve. Twwwwelvvve. Still such a weird word.

In Juryo, Kotoeiho nearly slipped one past Kusano but Kusano reacted well to the sidestep and dragged Kotoeiho over the bales. Kusano will fight Oshoumi tomorrow. Mitakeumi will take his turn against Kotoeiho. If Mitakeumi wins, he will join Kusano with Makuuchi promotion. Wakaikari and Tohakuryu chase, one loss off pace. They will fight each other tomorrow.

Makuuchi Action

Kotoshoho (6-1-5) defeated Tamashoho (4-8). Kotoshoho’s tsuppari was stronger than Tamashoho’s and Kotoshoho shoved Tamashoho back to the bales and over. Oshidashi.

Nishikigi (6-6) defeated Tokihayate (6-6). Tokihayate spun and pulled on Nishikigi to try to throw him. However, Nishikigi used his size to drive forward and force Tokihayate over the bales and pick up his first white star since Day Five. Yorikiri.

Asakoryu (9-3) defeated Atamifuji (7-5). Atamifuji started to drive forward but Asakoryu pivoted and shoved Atamifuji’s right shoulder, driving Atamifuji down to the clay. Like the Jeffersons, Asakoryu will be “Movin’ On Up” in July. He might even work his way over to the East Side. Tsukiotoshi.

Kayo (6-6) defeated Takanosho (7-5). While Takanosho plowed forward, Kayo shifted to his left and slapped Takanosho down. Hatakikomi.

Endo (7-5) defeated Shonannoumi (3-9). Endo used his nodowa and tsuppari to drive Shonannoumi back to the bales. Shonannoumi resisted with the tawara as leverage so Endo wrapped him up with his strong right hand on Shonannoumi’s belt and pulled. Shonannoumi didn’t go down but Endo dragged him to the other side of the ring and pressed him back over the tawara and likely back to Juryo. Yorikiri.

Ryuden (5-7) defeated Shishi (2-10). Ryuden secured Shishi’s belt with the right hand but Shishi fought to keep Ryuden’s left hand away. After a long struggle, Ryuden finally got his left hand inside, overpowered Shishi and drove him over the bales. Shishi’s dreadful tournament continues and he is in serious danger of demotion. He will need a couple of wins in the final days to avoid the drop. Yorikiri.

Sadanoumi (8-4) defeated Meisei (7-5). Sadanoumi’s footwork was excellent and he reacted very well to Meisei’s inashi, shifting strategy. He grabbed Meisei, pulled him violently toward the tawara and drove him over the edge. Yorikiri.

Midorifuji (3-9) defeated Tochitaikai (3-9). Solid tachiai and Tochitaikai put his head down to press forward. In a flash, Midorifuji shifted left and pulled Tochitaikai down by the left arm. Tochitaikai is headed back to Juryo in July. Hikiotoshi.

Onokatsu (8-4) defeated Roga (7-5). Onokatsu grabbed Roga’s belt with the right. Roga didn’t like that and yanked him off but Onokatsu immediately locked on deeper with the left. As Roga struggled and shifted, Onokatsu kept his head down and pressed ahead, waltzing Roga toward the edge and finally over. Yorikiri.

Churanoumi (3-9) defeated Shodai (3-9). Churanoumi kept Shodai in front of him. As Shodai shifted right, Churanoumi shifted with him and shoved him over the edge. Even Shodai might be in danger of a drop to Juryo and will likely need a win or two in the closing days to avoid it. Oshidashi.

Kinbozan (8-4) defeated Tobizaru (6-6). Tobizaru tried to shift to the right at the tachiai but Kinbozan read it perfectly and shoved Tobizaru. The nudge was enough to catch Tobizaru off-balance and he staggered back, over the bales. Tsukidashi.

Halftime

Tamawashi (4-8) defeated Abi (7-5). Tamawashi blasted Abi, drove him back and out. He might have caught and Abi finger in the eye. That would irritate me, too. Oshidashi.

Chiyoshoma (4-8) defeated Gonoyama (3-9). Gonoyama kept his head down and drove into Chiyoshoma. However, Chiyoshoma pivoted along the bales, grabbed and pulled Gonoyama to the ground. Uwatenage.

Wakamotoharu (6-6) defeated Ura (3-9). Wakamotoharu shifted to his left and slapped Ura down. Hatakikomi.

Hiradoumi (5-7) defeated Oho (4-8). Hiradoumi got a jump on the tachiai and hit Oho hard, driving Oho back and over. Yorikiri.

Sanyaku

Takayasu (3-9) defeated Takerufuji (4-8). Takerufuji used his ottsuke to try to keep Takayasu of his belt but he could only hold out for so long. Takayasu got his left inside then his right hand latched on Takerufuji’s belt. Takayasu pulled hard, swinging Takerufuji down. Uwatenage.

Wakatakakage (9-3) defeated Oshoma (8-4). Wakatakakage grabbed Oshoma and drove him over the edge. Yorikiri.

Daieisho (9-3) defeated Aonishiki (8-4). Aonishiki got a few healthy doses of Daieisho’s tsuppari and was thrown from the dohyo. Tsukidashi.

Onosato (12-0) defeated Hakuoho (8-4). Onosato expected Hakuoho to come out hard. He met him forcefully at the tachiai but then grabbed behind his head and pulled him down while pivoting to the right. Hatakikomi.

Kotozakura (8-4) defeated Ichiyamamoto (4-8). After a brief oshi tussle, Kotozakura released and allowed Ichiyamamoto to step inside, grabbing his belt with the right hand inside. Ichiyamamoto tried to use his ottsuke to squeeze and keep Kotozakura’s left away. But Kotozakura worked his left hand inside. With a morozashi he plowed ahead and forced Ichiyamamoto from the ring. Yorikiri.

Kirishima (9-3) defeated Hoshoryu (9-3). “Purple rain, purple rain.” The Yokozuna let Kirishima get on his belt quickly. Maybe he thought he could overpower him? Kirishima wasn’t budging easy, though. Kirishima’s left hand was firm, inside. But Hoshoryu still squeezed there to try to get him to release. Meanwhile, with Hoshoryu’s focus apparently on that left hand, Kirishima quietly reached over and locked on with his right, outside Hoshoryu’s left. Firm grip acquired, Kirishima pulled up, briefly lifting the Yokozuna from the surface of the dohyo, and dragged him to the bales where Kirishima unceremoniously dumped Hoshoryu over the edge. Uwatenage.

Wrap-up

Enough Prince, Andy. It’s always Prince. Always Purple Rain. Can’t you switch it up for once? Okay. How about some Phil this time? I’ll try to think of something better for next time.

The yusho is not officially Onosato’s yet but barring a collapse of monumental proportions in the closing days of the tournament, the yusho AND the rope are his. The only question remaining is whether this will be a runaway or will anyone present a serious challenge to Onosato? Onosato will fight Kotozakura tomorrow.

If he wins, the yusho is his and they probably prefer him to go through the Ozeki to clinch the title rather than have him face Daieisho or Kirishima. They might delay the Day 14 pairing to see which Sekiwake has the better record but both Daieisho and Kirishima are fighting well. Both would be great matchups and one of them should have fought Onosato today, instead of Hakuoho. But I’ll shut up about that now. It’s in the past.

Hoshoryu will fight Daieisho tomorrow. This will likely set up a Kotozakura/Hoshoryu fight on Day 14 with the finale being Hoshoryu versus Onosato in the final bout on Senshuraku. Even if Onosato clinches the yusho early, Hoshoryu and Kirishima/Daieisho will bring their best sumo to face him down the stretch. Both Sekiwake have had great performances this tournament. Daieisho’s is likely not enough for promotion this time but solid steps forward, both of them. Wakamotoharu and Abi will be fighting for the Komusubi slot that Takayasu will vacate.

Further down the banzuke, they’ve surprisingly decided to bring Asakoryu up to fight Wakatakakage, as if Asakoryu were going to make a dark, dark, dark horse run for the yusho. It is still weird to think of Asakoryu as Heyagashira at Takasago, and still their lone sekitori. But this has been a fantastic tournament and he is setting himself up to earn a special prize. His little brother might even secure a sekitori rank and we know Asanoyama will lurch closer to reclaiming sekitori status, as well. Big things happening over there and this weekend could be a great one for Takasago and their supporters. Par-TAY, as they say. Lots to come in these final three days.