Once again, we have a combined report from both days of round 5. Things are heating up, with rikishi trying to avoid make-koshi, to achieve kachi-koshi, or to stay in their division’s yusho race. The matches you will see will be mixed from both days.
Let’s take a look at where things stand heading into Act 3.
We are down to 5 co-leaders with 8-2 records, ranging in rank from Ozeki to maegashira 14. Two additional wrestlers—pre-tournament favorites Asanoyama and Terunofuji—are one off the pace at 7-3. The lead group will be reduced to at most 4 on day 11, when the schedulers have matched up Onosho and Tobizaru.
Ozeki Takakeisho is in the lead group, and a second career title would be the start of a Yokozuna challenge for him. Also in the lead group is East Sekiwake Shodai, who has successfully defended his rank and is still maintaining a slim hope of an Ozeki promotion.
West Sekiwake Mitakeumi (6-4) has alternated two-bout winning and losing streaks since the start of the basho; he needs one win in the final 5 days to remain in san’yaku, two to maintain his rank, and 4 to continue an Ozeki run into November.
Shin-Sekiwake Daieisho, 3-7 is one loss away from losing his rank, and two away from dropping out of san’yaku altogether. Both Komusubi, Okinoumi and Endo, are also 3-7, meaning that another loss would drop them into the rank-and-file.
Neither M1 is suffering the usual beating associated with that rank, with Terunofuji (7-3) leading the san’yaku promotion race and Takanosho (6-4) second in line.
Certain to drop to Juryo: Abi and Kyokutaisei.
The following win totals are needed for other endangered Makuuchi men to stay in the top division, barring favorable banzuke luck due to a lack of promotion contenders in Juryo and/or even worse performances by other demotion candidates:
5 wins: Shohozan.
4 wins: Ishiura.
3 wins: Ichinojo, Shimanoumi, Kotoshogiku.
2 wins: Hoshoryu*, Enho. *3 if everything breaks against him.
1 win: Kaisei, Meisei.
J2w Kotonowaka, 8-2, leads the short list of Juryo promotion candidates; he’s probably done enough already, and one more win should seal the deal for sure. Fellow Sadagotake beya J2e Kotoyuki, 7-3, is the only other rikishi ranked J5 or higher with a winning record. J11w Chiyonokuni, 9-1, continues to lead the yusho race and mount a dark-horse promotion campaign from near the bottom of the rankings.
As noted previously, the Makushita-Juryo exchange picture is complicated by the mandated absences and uncertain banzuke fates of J7 Azumaryu and J14 Fujiazuma. There are already two certain openings in Juryo, one created by Kizakiumi’s retirement and the other by Oki’s 0-10 sekitori debut.
Of the 10 rikishi in the Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone, one is absent, and one is already make-koshi. That leaves 8 in the hunt: 4 with 3-2 records, 3 with 2-3, and the last man in the promotion zone, fan favorite Ura (Ms5w), who is in a 3-way tie for the lead in the Makushita yusho race at 5-0. All the promotion candidates are in action on day 11, when the picture should clear up considerably.
Asanoyama picked up his second fusensho (default win) today, as Kiribayama went kyujo. He did not look hurt following his day 9 match against Takakeisho, but we hope he recovers and can return strong and ready to fight. Elsewhere, I added to my regrettable predictions list, as Terunofuji lost his match against Takanosho, taking him out of the co-leader group for the yusho. This leaves five rikishi tied at 8-2, but only one—Takakeisho—with prior yusho experience. While it would be delightful to see 2, 4 or all 5 make it to senshuraku tied for the lead, the hype around the yusho race will become a distraction during the next 5 days. It can cause a rikishi to lose focus, and their sumo can suffer. I am eager to see how act 3 unfolds! [We’ll be down to at most 4 co-leaders tomorrow, as Onosho and Tobizaru have been matched up by the schedulers. -lksumo]
Wakamotoharu defeats Ichinojo – Ichinojo started strong, but could not finish Wakamotoharu. A well executed grip change from Wakamotoharu with his heels on the tawara was the key that reversed the course of the match, and gave him a solid yorikiri against the much larger Ichinojo. Both finish the day 5-5.
Hoshoryu defeats Chiyotairyu – If that was a henka, it was so smart and crisp it actually was a thrill to watch. Hoshoryu moved right at the tachiai, and circled behind Chiyotairyu as sumo’s thunder god moved forward. Hoshoryu stayed to his rear and pushed Chiyotairyu out. Just when I think that Hoshoryu has run out of gas, he comes up with something that shows the seeds of greatness.
Ishiura defeats Kotoshogiku – Ishiura uses straight-ahead sumo, with sharp execution, and picks up a much needed win. Kotoshogiku attempt to set his hands for a pull-down opened a route for Ishiura to get the grip he used for the throw (shitatenage); points to Ishiura for reading the move and exploiting it. That’s loss number eight for Kotoshogiku.
Sadanoumi defeats Shimanoumi – Sadanoumi extends his career record to 5-0 over Shimanoumi. Sadanoumi opened the door for Shimanoumi with a tepid head pull, but was able to hold position and keep Shimanoumi from taking the initiative. Sadanoumi advances to 5-5.
Shohozan defeats Enho – Enho gets his hands inside and against Shohozan’s chest at the tachiai. Shohozan countered with an arm bar grip. With Enho trapped, he rotated and launched Enho across the bales. Sadly that’s loss number 8 for fan-favorite Enho, who has struggled all tournament.
Tokushoryu defeats Kaisei – When a pair of super-heavies face off like this, the action can be slow, but the amount of mass in motion is truly impressive. Kaisei fought for hand position as the two went chest to chest at the tachiai, and finding his left hand inside, he tried a throw. Tokushoryu is naturally very low, and Kaisei could not complete the move. Instead Tokushoryu consolidated his grip and forced Kaisei over the bales.
Wakatakakage defeats Kotoshoho – Wakatakakage keeps his share of the lead with the win, and reaches kachi-koshi. Kotoshoho tried a slap-down early, and that probably cost him the match. Wakatakakage was patient, strong and focused. A well timed grip shift collapsed Kotoshoho and won the match.
Tobizaru defeats Ryuden – Tobizaru picks up win #8 in this endurance contest with Ryuden. Tobizaru stayed low the entire match, and that’s some impressive strength to fight bent over and in battle for that long. Even when Tobizaru reached deep and grabbed Ryuden’s mawashi at the knot, Ryuden stayed strong, stable and fought back. Really strong sumo from both today.
Aoiyama defeats Meisei – Big Dan fired up the V-Twin early and applied a maximum beating to Meisei’s face straight out of the tachiai. Meisei’s only defense was to drive and dive inside, grabbing a generous handful of Aoiyama’s pasty-white flesh. Compliments to Meisei—he shut down the tsuppari attack, and had Aoiyama on defense. But it cost him most of his endurance, and Big Dan waited him out, keeping his balance centered as best he could. Sensing Meisei was trying to catch his breath and rally, Aoiyama lifted and tossed Meisei for win #6.
Onosho defeats Takayasu – Color me surprised—Onosho beat Takayasu, and looked quite solid doing it. Takayasu tried to open up with a forearm to Onosho’s face, which I am sure was painful, but it opened up his chest for Onosho’s opening attack. A shove back against the former Ozeki was answered by a lunge forward, and Onosho used this over-reaction to apply the hatakikomi. That’s an 8th win for Onosho, and he maintains his share of the lead.
Kagayaki defeats Kotoeko – A simple match, it was Kagayaki getting his hands inside at the tachiai, and just applying maximum force to Kotoeko’s chest. I think there were two big pushes and three steps total in that win.
Myogiryu defeats Hokutofuji – Myogiryu took advantage of Hokutofuji’s habit of trying to finish a match with a “drive and dive” move. He employs it frequently, and if he can center you and catch you as he lunges, it’s tough to survive. But Myogiryu was waiting for it, and deflected Hokutofuji’s leap, sending him to the dohyo.
Takanosho defeats Terunofuji – Takanosho once again proves to be Terunofuji’s nemesis, improving his career score to 3-0 over the former Ozeki. The loss knocks Terunofuji out of the leader group for the yusho, and I think it’s an important test for him. In the past, Terunofuji’s biggest problem was his own mind, and he would tend to go into a losing streak after losing a critical match.
Takarafuji defeats Okinoumi – It’s always great to watch two high-skill veterans go head to head, and these two did not disappoint. Okinoumi took control of the match early, though Takarafuji had his arms tangled up nicely. Okinoumi moved to free his hands, and that small change in balance and force was enough for Takarafuji to amplify and swing Okinoumi past him and to the clay. Great move, expertly executed.
Tamawashi defeats Endo – This match was all Tamawashi, with Endo finding himself trapped and gripped from behind just a few seconds into the match. Tamawashi improves to 5-5, and is a strong candidate for a day 15 Darwin match.
Mitakeumi defeats Tochinoshin – Mitakeumi chooses to go chest to chest with Tochinoshin, and makes it work. I have to assume that Tochinoshin’s knee is causing him a lot of pain, because after maintaining force against Mitakeumi for just a few second, he releases pressure and tries to pull Mitakeumi down. Of course that set up the loss just seconds later.
Shodai defeats Terutsuyoshi – Terutsuyoshi launched early, and Shodai resorted to a “stand up” tachiai. This resulted in Terutsuyoshi being somewhat off balance when he finally reached Shodai (and that may have been part of Shodai’s intent). Leaving his bag of tricks at the heya this morning, Terutsuyoshi went for straight-ahead sumo, but what was Shodai doing? Wait, was that a waltz? After struggling to sort out who would lead that dance, Shodai lost patience and used a double hand plant on Terutsuyoshi’s face to throw him into the lap of a nearby shimpan. Shodai gets his kachi-koshi, and maintains his position as co-co-co leader.
Takakeisho defeats Daieisho – The Grand Tadpole seems to have overcome his injuries of the past couple of years, and is fighting well. Daieisho used his longer reach to attack Takakeisho’s face at will, but it seems Takakeisho is used to it. The Ozeki focused his tsuppari center-mass instead, and proceeded to get Daieisho moving back. Once that happens, it’s very tough to stop, and Daieisho could not find his footing to mount a defense. That’s 8 wins for Takakeisho, and he maintains his spot in the leader group.
Welcome to the end of Act 2 of the Aki Basho. Act 2 is where we narrow the field to find out who has what it takes to compete for the yusho, and where we start sorting the survivors from the damned. Sumo great Kintamayama coined the term “Wacky Aki”, for the Aki basho’s tendency to swerve into the unexpected and the unpredictable. It’s hard to think of a more unusual basho in recent years that the current Aki. No fewer than 6 rikishi are tied for the lead in the yusho race going into the final day of act 2, with another 4 just one loss behind. Given the schedules of who has already faced whom, it will be very difficult to run the final days lower-division style, where rikishi with matching records face off to narrow the field.
As stated in our day 9 highlights, you have to give former Ozeki Terunofuji the inside track as of today, because he has already faced, and largely beaten, those who out-rank him on the banzuke. I mused earlier, during his cold, 2-loss start, that perhaps he had been over promoted. Add that one to the pile of regrettable predictions! One thing (to me) is certain—the last 6 days of Aki are going to be intense and unpredictable. Bring it on!
Once more into the breach!
Leaders – Takakeisho, Shodai, Terunofuji, Wakatakakage, Onosho, Tobizaru
Chasers – Asanoyama, Kiribayama, Takayasu, Kotoshoho
Hunt Group – Mitakeumi, Takanosho, Takarafuji, Kagayaki, Aoiyama, Kotoeko, Chiyotairyu, Meisei, Ichinojo
6 Matches Remain
Ichinojo vs Wakamotoharu – A sure sign of unusual days ahead, a SECOND Onami brother appears in the top division. It’s Wakamotoharu paying a visit (I think for the first time) to face off against Ichinojo. Both are straddling the make-koshi trend line, and I am wondering if there isn’t some nice Darwin match in Ichinojo’s future, with survival in the top division at stake.
Chiyotairyu vs Hoshoryu – I do love first time matches between energetic bright young rikishi and tough, grizzled veterans. Indeed we have sumo’s resident thunder god squaring off against a somewhat less than genki Hoshoryu. Would be a shame if Hoshoryu returned to Juryo for seasoning, but as Wakanohana said in a recent commentary, he’s not “done growing yet” (rough paraphrase).
Ishiura vs Kotoshogiku – Hey, lets put the two orthopedic candidates in the same match, and see if we can use the giant wheelchair! You know, they rent that thing, and I am sure there is some accountant somewhere that pointed out that every day they don’t use it, it’s money wasted. Kotoshogiku holds a 4-1 career advantage.
Sadanoumi vs Shimanoumi – An all umi battle if ever I did see one. This one is all Sadanoumi, I would guess. He holds a 4-0 career record over the younger “umi”. Both are also firmly astride the make-koshi trend line, and I see more Darwin matches hovering on the horizon.
Enho vs Shohozan – A loss today would give Enho a solid make-koshi, and with 5 days to follow, he could end up on the wrong side of the banzuke boundary between the top two divisions. We can all but assume this will be the case for hapless Shohozan, who has a single win thus far at Maegashira 15. Maybe, like the legendary Babe Ruth, he waited to get 2 strikes before blasting the ball over the center field fence. Nah…
Tokushoryu vs Kaisei – Speaking of make-koshi candidates, it’s clear that Hatsu yusho winner’s Cinderella story has reached 5 minutes past midnight. It was a great story while it lasted, but a loss today against Kaisei (10-4 career advantage) will seal the 3rd consecutive make-koshi following his 14-1 yusho.
Kotoshoho vs Wakatakakage – Co-co-co leader Wakatakakage defends his spot on the leaderboard against Kotoshoho today. Kotoshoho has taken both previous bouts, so this is a great test of just how genki Wakatakakage is right now.
Ryuden vs Tobizaru – Co-co-co leader Tobizaru has beaten Ryuden before in Makushita, but for all normal purposes, these two are going to go at it for the first time since 2016. Ryuden is struggling quite a bit this September, but he should be safe from demotion to Juryo as long as his make-koshi is not too brutal [I’d say Ryuden is already safe. -lksumo].
Meisei vs Aoiyama – Both men are just on the positive side of the make-koshi trend line, and only one of them will stay that way following this match. I have to like Aoiyama in this one, as he has shown a lot of bashing power so far. Check your dental work following, Meisei-zeki!
Takayasu vs Onosho – I adore both of these guys, but I think that Takayasu is going to be highly motivated after his day 9 match, which was a complete and total mess. They have fought twice before, with a 1-1 record. But I expect Takayasu to bump co-co-co leader Onosho out of his spot.
Kotoeko vs Kagayaki – Another pair running the make-koshi trend line. I can hear them getting out the ink for the day 15 Darwin Torikumi. I am sure there will only be a couple of 7-7s on the last day, but there sure is a crowd of folks who are on a hazardous course. Kagayaki holds a 8-3 career advantage.
Hokutofuji vs Myogiryu – Both have matching 3-6 records, and once again Hokutofuji is striving to reach the most powerful make-koshi in all of sumo. They are fairly evenly matched, and I think it will come down to Hokutofuji getting his much preferred nodowa in early.
Terunofuji vs Takanosho – Terunofuji has lost both of the prior matches to Takanosho (both in Juryo), but those were the days before this kaiju took his top-division form. I would not be surprised to see the “angry yorikiri” today, something that has not been sighted in a few years.
Okinoumi vs Takarafuji – I could not tell you who has the advantage in this match, but I can tell you that beyond question, the goal for both rikishi will be a see-saw back and forth exchange of clever attack and riposte. So if you like two high-skill big guys carrying on sumo-style, this could be your match! [This will be the 22nd meeting between the two, with Okinoumi trying to even the head-to-head, which currently stands at 10-11. -lksumo]
Tamawashi vs Endo – Endo, it’s not too late to reach into the sumo you reserve for Hakuho and lay down the doom on your remaining opponents. Your fans would take heart, and you would be sent countless perfumed love letters from grannies across Japan. Think it over, this could be your future.
Tochinoshin vs Mitakeumi – Something tickles the dark, useless rearward creases of the glob of fat and mucus that passes for a brain – “Mitakeumi Darwin match”. I have wanted the original tadpole to gain consistency for a while, and I know he is capable. But something holds him back. Now Tochinoshin on the other hand, he’s just really starting to get on my nerves. Bonus points if he tries a henka again today. Then we will know he has a sense of humor.
Shodai vs Terutsuyoshi – Cartoon sumo is coming for you, Terutsuyoshi! Co-co-co leader Shodai actually has a fair chance at the yusho, but we have seen Terutsuyoshi perform outrageous acts of sumo to clear the road for his stablemate, Terunofuji. So any antics or hijinks today are excused if they are for a greater purpose.
Asanoyama vs Kiribayama – Hey, it’s day 10 and Asanoyama has to fight someone. Sure, lets throw fellow 6-3 rikishi Kiribayama into the mix and see what pops. Asanoyama has to hope that 1) he does not drop another match, and 2) 6 other guys all lose some time in the next 6 days.
Daieisho vs Takakeisho – Even though Daieisho has a fairly crummy score for Aki, he and Takakeisho are tied up at 5-5 over their career. This could be a solid challenge to knock the Ozeki out of his position as co-co-co leader.