The Aki basho provided a lot of great storylines, culminating with a long-awaited showdown between two Yokozuna on the final day. With the results in the books, let’s take our preliminary early look at how they’re likely to reshuffle the rankings for the Kyushu basho.
Yokozuna and Ozeki
No changes here. After finishing with identical 13-2 records, the two Yokozuna will retain their spots, with Onosato on the East side and Hoshoryu on the West, though a different result in the playoff would have caused them to swap places if the precedent from the last such playoff in 2009, won by Asashoryu against Hakuho, is still valid. And Kotozakura (9-5-1) remains our sole Ozeki for now, as both Sekiwake disappointingly posted losing records and will have to restart their quests from scratch.
Sekiwake
Both Wakatakakage and Kirishima went 6-9, which, Takayasu’s exceptional treatment after May notwithstanding, should see both back in the rank-and-file in November. So we need two new Sekiwake. K1w Aonishiki posted his 4th straight 11-4 record, which would have been good enough to force an extra Sekiwake slot if one hadn’t come open, and he will easily take the East Sekiwake rank. His 22 wins over 2 basho while ranked M1e and Komusubi have opened the conversation about his Ozeki chances after November; I won’t add to the speculation here other than to note that 11 wins will be needed at a minimum, and that it may take a very impressive result (yusho?) for the JSA not to say “well done, kid, now do it again in January.” The West Sekiwake slot should go to Oho, who went 10-5 at M2w and last held the third-highest rank in March; this will mark the second time he goes straight from maegashira to Sekiwake, bypassing Komusubi, a rank he’s never held.
Komusubi
This is where things start to get tricky. There are three plausible candidates for two spots, and little chance that a third slot will be created. The first candidate is M7e Takanosho, whose 12-3 record gives him a really strong case. The other two are M2e Hakuoho (8-7) and an incumbent, K1e Takayasu (7-8). Both mathematically deserve to be ranked M1e, and exact precedents are few, not recent, and conflicting. It’s not impossible that both could be ranked Komusubi at the expense of Takanosho, but this seems highly unlikely, so we can pencil in Takanosho at K1e and then flip a coin to see whether they opt to give Hakuoho his long-awaited sanyaku debut or demote Takayasu only half a rank, allowing him to stay at Komusubi for the 4th consecutive basho despite two losing records in three tournaments.
Makuuchi Demotions and Promotions
Two top-division wrestlers are guaranteed to be demoted to Juryo—M16w Nishikigi (2-13) and absent M12e Takerufuji. Their spots will go to J3w Nishikifuji (11-4), returning for the first time since his March injury, and J1w Oshoumi (9-6), making his Makuuchi debut. There’s one more incumbent with a (barely) demotable record: newcomer M17w Hitoshi (7-8). The Juryo wrestler with the third-strongest promotion case is our old friend J2w Chiyoshoma (9-6), who dropped to division two after his 1-14 performance in July. I think that his case is good enough that they’ll make the exchange, but this is far from certain. There are two more Juryo men who posted records that are numerically promotable: J5w Fujiseiun (10-5) and the division rookie and yusho winner J11w Asahakuryu (13-2). Unfortunately for them, it looks like there’s no room at the inn: the incumbent next-closest to demotion is J13e Meisei (5-10), whose rank and record place him right at M18e, so he should be safe by the skin of his teeth.
Banzuke Conundrums
There are some tricky decisions in addition to deciding who gets K1w. Several high-ranked maegashira, including Gonoyama, Kotoshoho, Abi, Ichiyamamoto and Atamifuji, posted double-digit losing records, making it tricky to decide how far to drop them. There’s also an unusually high number of wrestlers with 7-8 records (10, one short of the record), and we have to decide who stays in place and who drops, and by how much. There’s also a “hole” in the middle of the maegashira ranks that will require rather extreme over-promotions and under-demotions to fill. If you want to try your hand at this, see if you can figure out whom to place at M8e and M9w. In general, with the two Yokozuna and a handful of other high-performing wrestlers racking up a lot of wins, the rest of the rikishi have to soak up the losses, so this is going to be a “lucky” banzuke, with almost everyone ranked above where their rank-record combination would suggest.
Juryo Demotions and Promotions
Here, we have a lot more certainty. The promotions from Makushita to Juryo have been announced, with Kitanowaka and Wakanosho returning to the paid ranks and Nagamura (now Himukamaru) and Goshima (now Fujiryōga) making their salaried debuts. You can read more about their journeys in my Makushita posts. Takakento just missed out and will try again, probably from the very top rank, to earn a return exactly two years after a knee injury dropped him from Juryo to Sandanme.
The corresponding demotions are not announced, but we can be certain about three of them and reasonably confident in the fourth. J10w Miyanokaze (3-12) will return to Makushita after three basho in Juryo. Absent Endo will also drop, and it’s not clear whether he will attempt a comeback from what sounds like surgeries on both knees. And of course we already know that Takarafuji has chosen retirement over demotion. The most likely 4th demotion is J13e Kyokukaiyu (6-9), whose first sekitori basho was not a success. Assuming they do the math right, J14e Shiden (7-8) should be just barely safe, but you never know with this banzuke committee.
The full banzuke will be announced on October 27, two weeks before the start of the Kyushu basho, and I’ll try to post my full banzuke guess closer to that time. Meanwhile, let me know what you think in the comments.
