Without further ado, here’s my final banzuke guess.
Kyushu Banzuke Crystal Ball
Nagoya 2025
Kyushu Banzuke Talk
Hey all, I’m back. Let’s talk about how the Aki results are likely to reshuffle the rankings for the November basho.
The named ranks
This is largely straightforward. At Yokozuna, title-winning Onosato will remain on the East side, ahead of absent Hoshoryu. The Ozeki order will rearrange according to their results: Aonishiki at O1e, followed by Kotozakura at O1w and Kirishima at O2e. The two Sekiwake successfully defended their ranks, but there’s a question about their order. Will 11-4 Fujinokawa leapfrog 8-7 Atamifuji? Unlike Yokozuna and Ozeki, there’s no clear rule about this, and the decisions in recent years have been inconsistent. Then we should have Churanoumi making his san’yaku debut at K1e, and Yoshinofuji returning to the Komusubi rank after a one-basho absence. Based on the odd decisions about the order of san’yaku rikishi on the September banzuke, I wouldn’t completely rule out the possibility of Yoshinofuji on the East side instead.
Upper maegashira
There should be no argument about Asanoyama taking the top maegashira spot, which would place him in a great position for a san’yaku return in January. After that, there is a gap, with no results that would earn a rank higher than M3. Takayasu would be first in the queue for M1w, but he had a losing record at M2e, so he is not eligible. It seems like the only real choice is to over-promote M4w Fujiryoga (8-7), who’s never dropped in rank since his March 2025 debut as Makushita tsukedashi. And then it gets tricky. We have a combination of dropping and rising rikishi whose records place all of them around M4/M5, and so they could be arranged in a lot of different orders. In addition to the aforementioned 7-8 Takayasu, the make-koshi group consists of the the two dropping Komusubi—Hakunofuji and Daieisho, both 5-10—the M1 Koto brothers, who also only managed 5 wins apiece, and M3e Gonoyama (6-9). The risers are M7e Fujiseiun (9-6), M8e Takerufuji (9-6), M8w Hiradoumi (9-6), and M9e Ura (10-5). The only definite here is the relative order of the Komusibi, the M1s, and the 9-6 trio; everything else is up for grabs.
Exchanges between Makuuchi and Juryo
The order of the rikishi in danger of dropping from the top division is as follows M16e Wakanosho (absent), M12e Wakatakakage (absent), M17e Shonannoumi (3-12), M14e Tobizaru (4-11), M11w Shodai (3-12), M14w Chiyoshoma (5-10). Conversely, the promotion queue in Juryo is J1e Dewanoryu (10-5), J3e Tamawashi (10-5), yusho winner J6e Kitanowaka (11-4), J5w Arashifuji (10-5), J1w Kyokukaiyu (8-7), J2e Daiseizan (8-7). The first 5 exchanges are pretty much set in stone. The only real uncertainty is whether Chiyoshoma has a very lucky escape, denying Daiseizan (or, less likely. Arashifuji). Tobizaru hasn’t been in Juryo since he made his Makuuchi debut 6 years ago at Aki 2020. But that’s nothing compared to Shodai, whose top-division run dates all the way back to his debut over a decade ago, in January 2016! The promotions would mark top-division debuts for Dewanoryu, Kyokukaiyu, and Arashifuji, as well as welcome returns for Iron Man Tamawashi (after a two-basho absence) and Kitanowaka, for the first time since a January 2025 injury sent him tumbling down the banzuke.
Exchanges between Juryo and Makushita
As I noted in a comment on Andy’s post, mega-prospect Asahifuji should be exchanged with Tochitaikai, and Ryuho with Nishikigi. The first is 100%, the second is more like 90%. The next exchange would be Ikarigata with Hatsuyama, but there’s almost no chance of it happening. Even less likely is Tamashoho getting exchanged with another mega-prospect, Tenshoyama, who was ranked outside the promotion zone and needed a 7-0 record. Asahifuji’s promotion after only five basho will tie the record for the fastest rise from Jonokuchi to sekitori, most recently accomplished by Enho. We’ll find out what actually happens here in a day or two, unlike the rest of the banzuke, where we’ll have to wait until October 26.
Makushita Playoff!
As Andy alluded to, the Makushita race didn’t end today. Asahifuji knocked off Omori on day 11, leaving Akua as the only 6-0 wrestler in the third division. Akua had his chance to claim the yusho today against 5-1 Mudoho but lost, bringing all the 6-1 rikishi back into contention. So we’ll have a big 7-way playoff on senshuraku. The participants are below. I believe the format is that they draw lots to pair them up for round one, with one lucky rikishi getting a bye. That leaves four, and they fight it out in a standard elimination format, with two semifinals followed by a final. It’s an interesting mix of prospects and veterans, and should be a fun watch. It’s the first such playoff since Aki 2023.
Natsu 2026: Day Twelve
Day 12 in Tokyo. Asanoyama and Kotozakura are kyujo. Kotoeiho and Churanoumi will receive default wins. I also wanted to bring up the kyujo of Yumenofuji now that more information has been made available.
On Day 10, Yumenofuji fought Tsurubayashi and suffered a hard fall as both men crashed from the dohyo. He was not moving and was removed from the arena by a stretcher. Terunofuji was there, pictured with Yumenofuji as he was wheeled away. News is that he’s had an MRI and been diagnosed with a concussion (no shit) and has been suffering from nausea and headaches. We’re definitely thankful it isn’t worse.
Down in Juryo, Enho lost another one. This time, he was initially awarded the pushout win but the call was overturned by the shimpan who decided he was dead while Hatsuyama was still in. NHK videos are here. Kazekeno (10-2) continues to hold onto his two-stroke lead over Kazuma (8-3).
Makuuchi Action
Kyokukaiyu (7-5 Juryo) defeated Tamawashi (2-10). After the tachiai, Kyokukaiyu shifted left and drove forward from Tamawashi’s side. He quickly plowed through the dohyo and forced Tamwashi over the edge. I think Tamawashi just punched his ticket to Juryo. If so, an era ends. Yorikiri.
Mitakeumi (7-5) defeated Shishi (3-9). Mitakeumi let Shishi fumble around for a little bit before he hooked his right arm under Shishi’s left and pressed forward, forcing Shishi back and over the edge. Shishi isn’t safe from the drop. Yorikiri.
Ryuden (5-7) defeated Tokihayate (4-8). Ryuden got his left hand uwate and Tokihayate was toast. Ryuden needs to win out to be absolutely safe but could conceivably avoid the drop with two more wins. But it will be tight. Yorikiri.
Ura (9-3) defeated Fujiryoga (8-4). Ura hooked his right arm in Fujiryoga’s left, pivoted, and toppled Fujiryoga. Sukuinage.
Kotoeiho (10-2) defaut win over Asanoyama (7-5).
Roga (7-5) defeated Nishikifuji (3-9). Roga grabbed Nishikifuji with his left hand uwate and drove forward, forcing Nishikifuji out, easily. Yorikiri.
Oshoma (6-6) defeated Wakanosho (6-6). Oshoma’s tsuppari was too strong for Wakanosho. Wakanosho made initial progress to force Oshoma to the edge. Oshoma seemed to use the edge for leverage and powered forward, knocking Wakanosho clear over the edge. Oshidashi.
Asahakuryu (4-8) defeated Oshoumi (3-9). Migi-yotsu. Asahakuryu was too strong for Oshoumi and pressed forward, forcing Oshoumi over the edge and likely into Juryo. Yorikiri.
Chiyoshoma (5-7) defeated Kinbozan (5-7). Motoki with the Big D put a halt to the fight, judging Chiyoshoma jumped early. Matta. On the second attempt Chiyoshoma reached back and grabbed Kinbozan’s mawashi way back by the thong, drove forward and forced Kinbozan out. Both men tumbled down the dohyo. Out of nowhere, Motoki pulled out a packet of almonds. “Want some of D’s nuts?” Watashikomi.
Shodai (6-6) defeated Abi (4-8). Abi laid into Shodai with tsuppari and nodowa, forcing him back. Shodai slipped left and pulled Abi down at the edge. Tsukiotoshi.
Halftime
Oho (6-6) defeated Hakunofuji (8-4). Hidari yotsu. Oho used his right hand uwate to press Hakunofuji back to the edge. At the edge, Oho pivoted and dragged Hakunofuji down by that right hand. Hakunofuji seemed to hurt his left ankle and was slow to get up. He limped slowly up the hanamichi. Uwatenage.
Yoshinofuji (9-3) defeated Tobizaru (9-3). Yoshinofuji caught the monkey, contained him, and pushed him clear off the dohyo. Oshidashi.
Hiradoumi (5-7) defeated Ichiyamamoto (5-7). Ichiyamamoto pivoted and tried to pull Hiradoumi down but it was Hiradoumi who pulled Ichiyamamoto down with help from a tug on his belt. Shitatenage.
Fujinokawa (6-6) defeated Daieisho (5-7). Fujinokawa blitzed Daieisho and blasted him from the ring as Daieisho pulled. Oshidashi.
Takanosho (5-7) defeated Wakamotoharu (3-9). Wakamotoharu pulled but got lost half way to the edge. Takanosho showed him the way to the exit and ushered him over the edge.
Sanyaku
Wakatakakage (9-3) defeated Gonoyama (8-4). Wakatakakage pulled after the tachiai and Gonoyama fell forward. Someone had done their homework. Tsukiotoshi.
Churanoumi (8-4) default win over Kotozakura (3-9).
Atamifuji(6-6) defeated Fujiseiun (5-7). Fujiseiun drove forward and forced Atamifuji back to the edge. Atamifuji twisted and thrust Fujiseiun down while stepping out. Gunbai Fujiseiun. Mono-ii. After video review, the shimpan decided on a rematch. In the rematch, Atamifuji dominated and forced Fujiseiun back and out. Yorikiri.
Kirishima (10-2) defeated Kotoshoho (7-5). The pair traded slapdown attempts. Kirishima’s was effective. Hatakikomi.
Wrap-Up
Yusho Race:
- Two-Losses: Kirishima, Kotoeiho
- Three-Losses: Wakatakakage, Yoshinofuji, Ura, Tobizaru
Beginning on Day 13, the bout announcements get delayed as match-makers try to figure out the best pairings for the days ahead. So, we do not have tomorrow’s torikumi yet. One thing’s for sure, there will be no Ozeki battle on senshuraku. Kirishima’s only remaining sanyaku opponent is Atamifuji.
I wonder if the Kyokai will pair him with two rank-and-filers (Churanoumi and Fujiseiun?) for Days 13 & 14, then hold out for the Atamifuji bout on senshuraku. They might even shove Kotoeiho up there now and try to put an end to his yusho hopes quickly.
Tune in tomorrow to see where this hot mess takes us next.