Haru State of Play, Day 14

What’s at stake on the final day? A lot!

The Yusho Race

Komusubi Daiesho (12-2) is the sole leader, chased by Sekiwake Kiribayama (11-3). Everyone else is out of the running. And the leaders face off in the musubi-no-ichiban! Kiribayama must win to force a playoff rematch for the cup.

The San’yaku

We’ll have at least 3 Sekiwake: S1w Hoshoryu (10-4) and S2e Kiribayama (11-3) by virtue of their winning records, and K2e Daieisho (12-2) by virtue of reaching the requisite 11 wins. K1e Wakamotoharu (10-4) can join them by winning tomorrow against K1w Kotonowaka (9-5), who will remain at Komusubi, where he will be joined by injured S1e Wakatakakage (7-7-1).

So the incumbents will sort themselves into 3S/3K or 4S/2K, leaving no open slots. If M1w Shodai (9-5) can beat erstwhile leader M5w Midorifuji (10-4), 10 wins might be enough to create an extra Komusubi position; otherwise, I don’t think we’ll see any promotions.

Makuuchi-Juryo Exchanges

J1e Asanoyama (12-2) and J3e Ichinojo (13-1) have definitely earned promotion. The Juryo yusho race also comes down to these two; Asanoyama has to beat boy wonder J14w Ochiai (10-4) and hope that J9e Tsushimanada (4-10) is sufficiently motivated to avoid demotion to Makushita to hand a loss to Ichinojo—a big ask indeed. If this transpires, the two head to a playoff in a rematch of their Day 4 bout won by Ichinojo; any other outcome hands the title to the big man.

Whose spots will they take? M14w Bushozan (4-10) is definitely on his way back to Juryo. M11e Azumaryu (3-11) has a demotable record, and must win and hope for a loss by Mitoryu for any chance of a reprieve. M17e Mitoryu (7-7) and M16w Tsurugisho (7-7) each need a win for safety, while losses would put them in serious danger. I think M12e Kagayaki (5-9) has done enough, but I’d be trying hard to beat Tsurugisho to make certain if I were him.

If those in danger start piling up losses, the door could open to J1w Tohakuryu (7-7) if he wins, J6e Gonoyama (10-4), or J3w Shonannoumi (8-6).

Juryo-Makushita Exchanges

The promotion queue looks like this:

  1. Ms2w Chiyosakae (5-1)
  2. Ms2e Fujiseiun (4-3)
  3. Ms3e Tokihayate (4-3)
  4. Ms3w Kawazoe (4-3)
  5. Ms5e Chiyonoumi (4-3) or Ms6e Shiden (5-1) with a win

J14e Tokushoryu (4-10) and J12e Tochimusashi (4-10) are toast, making room for Chiyosakae and Fujiseiun. J10e Kotokuzan (4-10), J11e Shimanoumi (5-9), and J9e Tsushimanada (4-10) will all be toast with a loss. Tsushimanada and Shimanoumi will be safe with a win. For Kotokuzan, a win would put him on the bubble, depending on where he is in the demotion queue. I think he’d go down for Tokihayate if he’s 3rd, maybe for Kawazoe if he’s 4th, and almost certainly not for Shiden or Chiyonoumi if he’s 5th.

Osaka 2023: Day 14 Highlights

Late-breaking news before today’s action was that Wakatakakage withdrew due to injury. This effectively decapitates the banzuke as all of the Top 3 wrestlers are now kyujo, with unclear status for May. As disappointing as that is, there sure is a host of top talent vying feverishly to earn their own chances at promotion. We’ve also seen how this opens the door to dark horse runs from rank-and-filers, like Midorifuji. He has faltered the last few days as they’ve turned up the heat and thrown him in the thick of it. But today he’s pitted against the leader in a bout that’s sure to set up a thrilling senshuraku.

A lot has been said about the state of competition in makuuchi but what seems truly missing isn’t competition, it’s dominance from one or two real leaders. Sanyaku and the joi is clearly a meat-grinder where a half-dozen guys from that group will be in the hunt. In January, we thought Takakeisho might have staked his claim as leader but he has lacked durability and stamina throughout his tenure. That means others will fill in the gaps. For me, that’s been very exciting. The idea that in Juryo the competition is “better” because Ichinojo and Asanoyama are clearly dominant…is silly (to me).

The Action

Shonannoumi defeated Mitoryu – The bout started with some oshi-zumo but settled into a grapple. As the pair maneuvered to the tawara, Mitoryu attempted a throw. The throw failed to budge Shonannoumi and exposed his back to his opponent. From here, it was simple for Shonannoumi to get behind Mitoryu and force him out from behind. Okuridashi. Shonannoumi picks up his kachi-koshi, 8-6. Mitoryu will try again tomorrow, 7-7.

Oho defeated Myogiryu – Oho’s patience paid off as he steadily cut off access to the dohyo, and pressed forward. Myogiryu got in a slap but Oho shrugged it off. Oshidashi. Oho improves to 7-7 while Myogiryu falls to 5-9.

Nishikifuji defeated Tsurugisho – Nishikifuji pulled Tsurugisho forward and sidestepped after the tachiai. This forced Tsurugisho off balance a bit, and back to the tawara. Nishikifuji followed up with some strong thrusts and shoved Tsurugisho over the edge. Tsukidashi. Nishikifuji, at 9-5, will seek double-digits and possibly a special prize, tomorrow. Tsurugisho falls to 7-7.

Aoiyama defeated Bushozan – Bushozan pressured Aoiyama back to the edge with strong thrusts. But as Aoiyama’s feet planted in the tawara, he was able to wrap up Bushozan, twist right and then swung back to the left, twisting Bushozan down to the clay. I have been enjoying Aoiyama’s yotsu game. Sukuinage. Aoiyama 6-8, Bushozan 4-10.

Hokuseiho defeated Hiradoumi – Hirodoumi had a strong early bout, keeping Hokuseiho high and unable to get his right hand on Hiradoumi’s belt. Hirodoumi pressed and pressed but could never quite get Hokuseiho back to the straw bales. When Hokuseiho was finally able to get his right arm under Hiradoumi’s arm, he quickly prevailed with a twisting throw, sukuinage, like Aoiyama before him. Hokuseiho kachi-koshi (8-6), preserves his Makuuchi status, as Leonid will discuss. Hiradoumi, make-koshi (6-8).

Takarafuji defeated Ichiyamamoto – Ichiyamamoto shunned the Abi tactics here as he consistently tried to get a migi-yotsu, right hand grip. When Ichiyamamoto got his grip, he pulled backwards and pushed Takarafuji down…but a mono-ii confirmed the gyoji’s call that Ichiyamamoto’s heel was over the tawara and touched outside before Takarafuji went down. Oshidashi.  Takarafuji 7-7, Ichiyamamoto 4-10.

Ura defeated Azumaryu – Standard Ura sumo here. He keeps his body low, and pressed forward wherever Azumaryu went. Azumaryu shifted left along the tawara and pulled but Ura pursued and pushed him out before Ura, himself, fell to the clay. Gunbai goes to Ura. Azumaryu was out before Ura landed. Oshidashi. Ura 8-6, Azumaryu 3-11. It’s looking like another hat draw for the tickets contest. Stay tuned this weekend.

Chiyoshoma defeated Hokutofuji – Chiyoshoma layed into Hokutofuji from the start with kachiage to his face at the tachiai. He followed up with some forceful thrusts as he tried to force Hokutofuji down. Hokutofuji squared up and Chiyoshoma laid into him with a wild haymaker. Chiyoshoma re-engaged driving, Hokutofuji’s back to the tawara and then driving the pair over the edge. Yoritaoshi. Chiyoshoma 9-5, Hokutofuji 7-7.

Takayasu defeated Kotoeko – Takayasu was too strong for Kotoeko today. He pressed forward and shoved Kotoeko out quickly. Kotoeko’s only decision making here was to find a soft spot to crash land. Oshidashi. Takayasu 9-5, Kotoeko 8-6

Kotoshoho defeated Kagayaki – Kagayaki did his best to establish his bullet-train style of sumo. He charged forward with his head down and right hand inside but couldn’t force Kotoshoho over the edge. Instead, Kotoshoho pivoted and threw Kagayaki at the edge. Shitatenage. Kotoshoho 6-8, Kagayaki 5-9.

Takanosho defeated Mitakeumi – Mitakeumi’s struggles continue. Takanosho got the best of the tachiai and as Mitakeumi moved forward to re-engage, Takanosho forced his head down and pushed him toward the edge, finishing him off with a shove from behind. Okuridashi. Mitakeumi 4-10, Takanosho 8-6.

Kinbozan defeated Abi – Kinbozan weathered Abi’s tsuppari and blasted Abi to the tawara. Abi teetered at the edge, and possibly could have saved himself, but he was in no position to attack and stepped out. Oshidashi. Kinbozan 10-4! Abi 8-6. Kinbozan’s probably looking at a special prize.

Nishikigi defeated Ryuden – The battle of the over-promoted. Both are make-koshi, Ryuden deeply so. The bout may have also exposed Ryuden’s injury. While his left foot is not wrapped, he did not seem to bear weight on it. He seems fine walking but the pressure of two wrestlers is far too much. Nishikigi pressed forward, Ryuden bearing that weight with his right leg, and drove Ryuden out. Nishikigi 5-9, Ryuden 1-13.

Sadanoumi defeated Tamawashi – Tamawashi charged forward into Sadanoumi and Sadanoumi leapt high in the air, landing on the shimpan below. The question for the mono-ii was, did Tamawashi’s hand touch, or was Sadanoumi dead in the air? The answer: “both of you did terrible sumo. I mean seriously, what the hell brand of sumo was that? Stooge Sumo? Try again.” In the redo, Tamawashi pressured Sadanoumi with forceful tsuppari, nearly taking his head off as he drove Sadanoumi back. But Sadanoumi dipped cleverly at the edge. This forced Tamawashi off balance and Sadanoumi followed up by pushing him out from behind. Okuridashi. Sadanoumi 6-8, Tamawashi 3-11.

Shodai defeated Daishoho – What’s Daishoho doing up here fighting in the joi? He just got to makuuchi and it’s not like he’s had a barnstorming tournament like Midorifuji. Oh, it’s Shodai. Ura already beat him and Takayasu would play too rough. Gotta give him an easy one. I’m being serious here. I really don’t know why this bout happened. Daishoho still had the better tachiai, driving the former Ozeki back strongly at the initial charge. The initial charge was not enough to get an upset win. Shodai recovered, contained the Maegashira 13 and pressed Daishoho out. Oshidashi. Shodai 9-5, Daishoho 8-6.

Sanyaku

Tobizaru defeated Meisei – Tobizaru-zumo isn’t so much a flying-monkey style as it is “cat-and-mouse”. Meisei played the role of the cat today, pursuing the clever mouse as he scurried around the dohyo. Meisei’s charge would nearly force Tobizaru out but Tobizaru evades capture. Rinse and repeat, rinse and repeat. Shikashi! Tobizaru has a trick up his sleeve. He lured Meisei to the middle of the ring and kicked out with a leg sweep; the cat goes down to the clever mouse. Kekaeshi. Tobizaru 5-9, Meisei 4-10.

Daieisho defeated Midorifuji – Powerful, solid sumo from Daieisho today. Midorifuji shifted left at the tachiai but Daieisho had upgraded to a laser-guided tsuppari system. There would be no misdirection. Daieisho locked on target and pursued Midorifuji as the latter retreated, before blasting him out of the ring. Daieisho maintains his yusho lead at 12-2. Midorifuji falls out of contention, 10-4.

Wakatakakage vs Kiribayama – Wakatakakage pulled out of the tournament, kyujo after suffering an injury in his fall yesterday. Kiribayama got the fusen win, staying in the yusho race. Kiribayama stays in the yusho chase at 11-3. Wakatakakage 7-7 and will end the tournament with a mild make-koshi, 7-8. Again, Leonid will go into detail but this looks like a massive log-jam again in the lower sanyaku. WTK will lose his Sekiwake status and drop to Komusubi.

Endo defeated Kotonowaka – Kotonowaka had one plan, push Endo down. Endo did not comply. Endo evaded the hatakikomi attempt, moved forward into Kotonowaka, corralled him at the edge and pushed him out. Oshidashi. Endo and Kotonowaka both 9-5. Frankly, this is the strongest I’ve seen Endo perform in quite some time. I wonder if a nagging injury is now behind him. He’ll firmly be in the joi in May. Wouldn’t it be something if after all these years, Endo makes a run?

Hoshoryu defeated Wakamotoharu – Hoshoryu appeared to have this bout won before it started. The stare down lead to a bit of an awkward, hesitant tachiai from Wakamotoharu. Hoshoryu engaged, wrapped up Wakamotoharu. Wakamotoharu used all the strength he had to swing Hoshoryu around but Hoshoryu’s lower body slid along with the pair, maintaining his balance. From here, Wakamotoharu’s position was too high and Hoshoryu took advantage, twisting to his left and throwing Wakamotoharu. Uwatenage. Both men end the day 10-4, just out of yusho contention but possibly vying for Ozeki promotion. How wild is that?

Musubi-no-ichiban

Yes, the 33-in-3 myth is a myth but it’s a nice yard stick. Right now, Hoshoryu has 29 with one to go, all from the rank of Sekiwake. Might 30 wins be enough? This very strong tournament from Wakamotoharu might be the first rung of his own Ozeki run, obviously made stronger if he can get win #11 tomorrow, ensuring Sekiwake promotion. He’s had three strong tournaments in the sanyaku/joi rankings but will need to continue that for the next two tournaments at Sekiwake. That will be a challenge with the looming return of Terunofuji and Takakeisho.

Osaka Day 14 Preview

Welcome to the final weekend! This is where we finish sorting everyone into make-koshi and kachi-koshi, and crown the yusho winner who gets to take home the Emperor’s cup. The schedulers have not pushed to get a big crowd of rikishi into a 7-7 record this basho, so there was never really a funnel to drive a group into Darwin matches. But if everything turns out correctly, we could have a few for day 15. Right now there are 10 rikishi with 6-7 or 7-6 scores. Including some famous names.

Haru Leaderboard

With Daieisho in the lead, he controls the outcome right now. Chances are pretty good it will be him who lifts the big red fish on Sunday. He is the only one of the group who has prior yusho experience, and so I think that gives him a bit of an edge. He also seems to be healthy, and his sumo is working quite well at the moment.

Daieisho faces Midorifuji today, and a Midorifuji win would blow the race wide open. I am not sure what his chances are, but that would be quite the exciting turn of events.

Leader: Daieisho
Chasers: Kiribayama, Wakamotoharu, Midorifuji
Hunt Group: Hoshoryu, Kotonowaka, Kinbozan

2 Matches Remain

What We Are Watching Day 14

Mitoryu (7-6) vs Shonannoumi (7-6) – Shonannoumi visits from Juryo for his first ever match against Mitoryu. The winner gets kachi-koshi and the loser is qualified for a Darwin match.

Myogiryu (5-8) vs Oho (6-7) – Myogiryu is already make-koshi, but if he can manage a win on day 14, he can send to make-koshi. Of course if Oho wins, it’s a Darwin match for him. If sumo had a “most likely to be mistaken for a shrubbery”, my vote would be for Oho right now. Get your sumo together sir!

Tsurugisho (7-6) vs Nishikifuji (8-5) – Tsurugisho is fighting for kachi-koshi today against Nishikifuji. If he loses, yes – Darwin! Tsurugisho has a nearly even career record against the Isegahama man, so it could be a big fight. Will we see another Tsurugisho henka today?

Aoiyama (5-8) vs Bushozan (4-9) – Both of them are already make-koshi, so this is probably to see if Aoiyama can bludgeon out another win, and maybe nominate Bushozan for a Juryo return trip. Someone’s got to take a hike if we are going to get Ichinojo and Asanoyama to the top division in May.

Hokuseiho (7-6) vs Hiradoumi (6-7) – Call this a mini-Darwin, if Hiradoumi loses he is make-koshi, and Hokuseiho kachi-koshi. If he is able to topple the Tokyo Skytree, it’s Darwin time for both of them.

Ichiyamamoto (4-9) vs Takarafuji (6-7) – The good news – I am pretty sure Takarafuji saved himself from making a trip to Juryo, so everything past that is an upgrade. He can still actually finish with a kachi-koshi, but the only way to do it is for him to have a 7-7 score at the end of today, and survive a possible Darwin match tomorrow. He has a 4-1 career record against already make-koshi Ichiyamamoto.

Azumaryu (3-10) vs Ura (7-6) – Lets be clear, this is another “donor” match. Azumaryu will give up a white star to Ura to secure his kachi-koshi in all likelihood. Should Ura lose through some bizarre twist of events, it’s Darwin time for him as well.

Hokutofuji (7-6) vs Chiyoshoma (8-5) – Hokutofuji holds a 7-1 career record against Chiyoshoma, so chances are good he will pick up his 8th win and be kachi-koshi. If not… Darwin!

Kotoeko (8-5) vs Takayasu (8-5) – No Darwin match for either of these guys, they are both already kachi-koshi. But one of them will get a chance to try for double digits. Kotoeko won their only prior match, and may be able to surprise Takayasu today.

Kotoshoho (5-8) vs Kagayaki (5-8) – Both are already make-koshi, so this is all about who gets what rank. Kotoshoho seems to have recovered some of his fighting form in the last few days, he has won the last 4 in a row.

Mitakeumi (4-9) vs Takanosho (7-6) – A decider for Takanosho, he either can best Mitakeumi today or he faces a Darwin match tomorrow. Personally, I think that Mitakeumi is going to put him on the clay today.

Abi (8-5) vs Kinbozan (9-4) – Both are already kachi-koshi in this first ever match up, it’s all about deciding rank for the May banzuke. I would love to see Kinbozan surprise Abi today with a rapid grab-and-chuck of his lanky hide out of the ring, just to keep matters interesting, and have Kinbozan finish his maiden basho with double digit wins.

Nishikigi (4-9) vs Ryuden (1-12) – Wow, these two are in dire need of rework. I am going to guess Ryuden is injured and he won’t be his normal level of fierce until he can get his lower back and hips in better condition. In the mean time, I am going to hope that Nishikigi does not attempt a kotenage today and add an elbow injury to Ryuden’s list of problems.

Tamawashi (3-10) vs Sadanoumi (5-8) – This pair is also make-koshi, but it would be good to see Tamawashi do no worse than 5-10 this March. Given how he is struggling day to day, he may be an easy mark for Sadanoumi’s high speed sumo.

Daishoho (8-5) vs Shodai (8-5) – Both start the day with 8-5 records, and Shodai won their only prior match, on day 9 of Kyushu 2019. It almost seems like a different world. Shodai was a Maegashira 10 headed for Ozeki, and there was no such things as COVID-19 causing problems around the world.

Meisei (4-9) vs Tobizaru (4-9) – Both have matching 4-9 records, and I wonder why Tobizaru has done so poorly this basho. He won opening day against Takakeisho, and then has been mostly down hill since then. He will be exiting the san’yaku with the May banzuke, but I am certain he will return.

Daieisho (11-2) vs Midorifuji (10-3) – With the preliminaries out of the way, it’s time for the main event. A Daieisho win will eliminate Midorifuji from the yusho race, a Midorifuji will will open up a tie to start the final day, possibly with multiple rikishi in the lead depending on how the matches that follow turn out. They have fought twice before, and both have won one. The first, day 11 Aki 2022, went o Midorifuji by hikiotoshi. Daieisho evened the score on Kyushu day 12 with a yorikiri win. We all know what must happen here. A glorious, lead busting katasukashi. Midorifuji, please make it so.

Endo (8-5) vs Kotonowaka (9-4) – Both of them have kachi-koshi, but I am certain that Kotonowaka wants to run up the score to double digits if at all possible. He is not quite to the point where he is ready to try for Ozeki the first time, but I think its going to happen this year. Endo loves to play spoiler, but his day 13 sumo was disorganized and sloppy, and he has lost thee in a row. Maybe he can bounce back.

Wakatakakage (7-6) vs Kiribayama (10-3) – Wakatakakage either overcomes a 5-8 career deficit, or it’s time for him to get a well deserved day 15 Darwin match. Frankly, Kiribayama’s sumo has been better over the last 14 days, and I hope he take the win today.

Wakamotoharu (10-3) vs Hoshoryu (9-4) – I guess the question is – can Wakamotoharu force himself into a Sekiwake slot by winning 11 or 12? I would love to see him make the case. He has only won twice in 7 fights against Hoshoryu, who has a strong chance to finish with double digits himself.

Haru State of Play, Day 13

What’s at stake going into the final weekend? A lot!

The Yusho Race

Daiesho (11-2) is the sole leader, chased by Kiribayama, Wakamotoharu, and Midorifuji with 3 losses, and Hoshoryu, Kotonowaka, and Kinbozan with 4. A Day 14 win by Daieisho against Midorifuji eliminates everyone except Kiribayama and Wakamotoharu, at least one of whom must win to extend the race to Day 15. If Midorifuji can pull off the upset (the head-to-head is 1-1), then he stays in contention, along with Kiribayama, Wakamotoharu, and any Day 14 winners from the 4-loss group, with the potential for a multi-way playoff for the cup!

The San’yaku

Of the seven current Sekiwake and Komusubi, all except K2e Tobizaru (4-9) will stay in San’yaku; the only question is at what ranks. We’ll have at least 3 Sekiwake: S1w Hoshoryu (9-4) and S2e Kiribayama (10-3) by virtue of their winning records, and K2e Daieisho (11-2) by virtue of his 11 wins. They can still be joined by S1e Wakatakakage (7-6), who followed his ice-cold 0-5 start with a 7-1 stretch and needs one more win to defend his rank, as well as K1e Wakamotoharu (10-3) and K1w Kotonowaka (9-4), who need one and two wins, respectively, to hit the requisite 11. Similar circumstances gave us a record five Sekiwake back in 1972, and we could easily match or exceed that total!

So the incumbents could sort themselves into anything from 3S/3K to 6S/0K. Depending on how this plays out, we could have no, one, or two open Komusubi slots. The promotion contenders are M1w Shodai (8-5), M5w Midorifuji (10-3), and M2e Abi (8-5), who, unusually, have to hope for wins by the incumbents!

Makuuchi-Juryo Exchanges

I see no way that J1e Asanoyama (11-2) and J3e Ichinojo (12-1) can be denied promotion. The Juryo yusho race also comes down to these two; Asanoyama has to keep winning and hope that someone can hand a loss to Ichinojo (they already met on Day 4, with Ichinojo prevailing).

Whose spots would they take? The top candidate is J14w Bushozan (4-9), who’d be exchanged for either even if he wins out. M11e Azumaryu (3-10) has rallied to win 3 of his last 4, but still needs to win out to avoid a demotable record. M17e Mitoryu (7-6), M15w Oho (6-7), and M16w Tsurugisho (7-6) each need a win, and given the strength of the two promotion cases and the current dearth of demotion candidates, I might not rest completely easy if I were M12e Kagayaki (5-8) or even M15e Hokuseiho (7-6). We may even see a very rare over-demotion of someone who should be safe by the numbers if it’s necessary to accommodate one of the Juryo leaders.

On the other hand, if those in danger start piling up losses, the door could open to J1w Tohakuryu (7-6), J6e Gonoyama (9-4), J3w Shonannoumi (7-6), or J5w Enho (8-5).

Juryo-Makushita Exchanges

First, an update on the Makushita yusho race! Ryuo prevailed after a long battle with Kaizen to take his first honors of any kind after an 11-year career in the lower divisions. He should be up in the promotion zone next time, where he can take his first shot at earning a sekitori debut.

The promotion queue looks like this:

  1. Ms2w Chiyosakae (5-1)
  2. Ms3w Kawazoe (4-2) with a win
  3. Ms2e Fujiseiun (4-3)
  4. Ms3e Tokihayate (4-3)
  5. Kawazoe with a loss

Kawazoe is up in Juryo tomorrow, where he’ll try to ensure his own promotion and open up another slot by beating J11e Shimanoumi (4-9). With J14e Tokushoryu (4-9) and J12e Tochimusashi (4-9) already headed down, that means that there’s definitely room for Chiyosakae and Fujiseiun either way, with Chiyosakae and Tokushoryu trading divisions for the second-straight basho. If Kawazoe loses, he falls to 4th in line, and he and Tokihayate would have to hope for enough losses by Shimanoumi, J10e Kotokuzan (4-9), and J9e Tsushimanada (4-9) to create space for them.